"APOPHIS COMETH!!!" Topic

Re: Asteroid 99942 Apophis

"It's not the asteroid's current course that scares people. Asteroid Apophis will miss Earth -- barely -- in 2029, but our gravity may alter its course during that pass and make its return trip in 2036 Very Bad News."
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Also:
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What would things be like 20-30 years after a direct hit from it? "Nuclear winter", fire and ashes everywhere, or what?

CC

That is, assuming there was a direct hit (which is NOT what is being predicted right now).

CC

I'll be safe in my island fortress by then.

Well, we've got 29 years to train Bruce Willis and Ben Affleck, then.

Or study anti-comet missile technology.

Well, anti-comet missile technology might be more effective, but the thought of shooting Ben Affleck into space is far too appealing…

The last one did not really get all the dinosaurs, since some weisenheimer sceintists are claiming that birds are not just descended from them, but ARE dinosaurs.
Well, that is just plain scientific hubris, and Apophis will clear all that up.

Mammals like us will be fine, just like the last time, but we will have to adjust to no more fried chicken. Damn, I'll miss that!

John,

LOL. No wonder iguanas taste like chicken!!!

CC

This one is interesting.

"Right now, it stands at 1-in-48,000 … Just for reference, there is a 1-in-354,319 chance that you'll be killed in an airplane accident."

CC

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Apophis: The Asteroid That Could Smash Into The Earth on Friday, April 13th, 2036

Apophis is an asteroid with an slightly offset orbit to that of Earth's. Discovered in June 2004, astronomers have determined that it will make a very close flyby on April 13th, 2029, where it will pass to within 5 Earth diameters of us. The exact path the asteroid follows on its flyby in 2029 will determine whether it smashes into the Earth seven years later.

Earth impact animation (8 sec)
Credit: ESA/Hubble
(M. Kornmesser & L. L. Christensen)

In 2004, it was first thought that the asteroid would hit us in the first flyby in 2029. The initial calculation for the orbit was made using only two sets of observations, those made in June and a subsequent set made in December.

From those observations, astronomers calculated a 1-in-200 chance that the asteroid would hit the Earth. If this was true, then this asteroid had become the most dangerous asteroid ever found. After taking more observations , the chances climbed even higher and by the end of December 2004, the chances of the Earth being struck by this asteroid climbed as high as 1-in-37.

Normally, when more observations are taken the chances of this kind of collision decrease. Not so here, it seemed like this thing was really going to hit us.

Luckily, some other observations from other sources were located and they allowed astronomers to calculate a more precise orbit. From those images they were able to conclude that there was no way that Apophis was going to hit the Earth. Whew!

For a while there though, you can bet there were some astronomers with some pretty tight sphincters.

We're not out of the woods yet. As you may know, when one celestial object passes close to another one, their orbits are altered a bit by the gravitational forces interacting between the two bodies. Since Apophis is much smaller than the Earth (it is 320 meters – or 1050 feet- across), its orbit will be the one affected. As it flies by our humble little planet, its orbit will change.

So, after astronomers had determined that the April 2029 encounter wasn't going to impact the Earth, they ran some simulations and found that the orbit of the asteroid will bend about 28 degrees, altering its course.

The flyby will make the orbit a bit bigger and Apophis will travel a bit slower. How much the orbit changes depends on how close it gets to us. If it flies through a specific 610-meter wide region of space as it goes past us in 2029, then Apophis' and the Earth will be in the exact same spot 7 years later on Friday April 13th, 2036.

So, what are the chances that Apophis will pass through that tiny region of space? Rest assured that astronomers are observing like crazy to get the best possible estimate.

Right now, it stands at 1-in-48,000.

One more time: Whew.

Just for reference, there is a 1-in-354,319 chance that you'll be killed in an airplane accident.

More definitive measurements still need to be made. Keep in mind that this thing is pretty small as astronomical bodies go. Even though its effects could be huge on the Earth if it hit us, relatively speaking and because of the vastness of space, this asteroid is tiny and very hard to see. It is currently hovering just outside of out ability to see it in telescopes.

That will change in the early 2010's. At that time, the asteroid will be close enough to us that optical and radar observations can be made accurately enough to make a better estimate.

I think I'll be paying attention to those results.

We are very fortunate that there are people out there whose job is to look for these things and warn us about them.

This sort of impact has happened before. It is widely believed that such an impact by an asteroid is responsible for changing the Earth in such a way as to adversely affect the dinosaurs, wiping them out. Also, The Tunguska Event is believed to be an explosion of a meteorite in the air above Siberia.

There are all sorts of objects like Apophis whirling over our heads. There is a real chance that the Earth can be struck by an asteroid we haven't seen yet. Because they are so small, they are dim and are easily missed by our telescopes.

Luckily, Apophis was observed early and we have many years to watch it and prepare for what it might do. This raises all sorts of interesting questions such as, what is our plan in the event of such a disaster? How can we prepare ourselves? How many resources should be made available for such an event?

We should be able to learn sometime in the 2010 decade whether this thing will actually hit us or not. If it is found that it will, then we'll have roughly 20 years to prepare. By that time, there is no doubt that many options will be explored (and fast).

This event, however, raises the spectre of those asteroids we do not know about and that may not give us as much warning. What about them? Perhaps we should be spending some money on more telescopes whose sole purpose is to look for such objects.

As with all things, we need to weight the chance of getting hit by an asteroid against the cost of getting prepared. There are many things that would probably be prudent to develop in case such an event actually does transpire.

The fact there is a better chance of being hit by this asteroid than dying in an airplane accident should be motivation enough to give some thought to planning for such a disaster as well as allocating resources to it.

Finally, let's address the issue of what would happen if the Earth was hit by this asteroid. A lot depends on where it hits. The ocean would be a great place for this thing to hit, for example. While it would still make a mess (tidal waves, etc), a lot of the energy would be absorbed by the water.

NASA estimates the energy from this particular asteroid to be roughly the same as if 65,000 nuclear bombs were dropped on us. What happens next depends on where it hits. It would certainly trash the immediate area, and it looks like estimates (from Wikipedia) tell us that an impact winter (a period of extended cold weather brought on by dust and particles shrouding the Earth and blocking the Sun) is unlikely.

Talk about astronomy you can use…

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OK. So it will not cause the extinction of mankind (if it were to hit). However, it would still "rock" our world (pun intended).

CC

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"Nasa has estimated that an impact from Apophis, which has an outside chance of hitting the Earth in 2036, would release more than 100,000 times the energy released in the nuclear blast over Hiroshima. Thousands of square kilometres would be directly affected by the blast but the whole of the Earth would see the effects of the dust released into the atmosphere."
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This is fun:

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Click "Begin" and then select "Apophis".

CC

Nice little map of risk areas:

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CC

Look, you're going to die sometime. Why sweat it?

I see it passes quite close to the Canary Islands.

The second thing I see it doing is triggering all the earthquakes that have been bottled up, and loosening all those tsunami landslides we have been not thinking about.

Get out of New Jersey by 2029.

Yep. La Palma may slide in either 2029 or on the second coming of Apophis in 2036:

TMP link

CC

What if it happens in Yellowstone?
Will that cause a shift for the Packers, Broncos and Chiefs home games?

I think that, according to this map, it is not at risk of a direct hit.

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However, if the seismic shocks disturb it enough, Yellowstone could wake up again:

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That would make 2036 a very bad year for the US.

CC

About the same time all the polar ice is melting? Who wants to go surfing the waves will be killer!!!

But the benefits! A direct impact would seriously widen the Panama Canal, and like CT said – "…the waves, man! The waves!"

According to this, it will pass within 20,000 miles in 2026!!!

CC
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Space's threat to civilization
December 29th, 2006
By Dean Irvine for CNN

LONDON, England (CNN) -- What should we do if an asteroid is on a collision course with Earth? This question is being taken increasingly seriously by scientists as more is learnt about the impact a near earth object (NEO) would have on the future of civilization.

It might sound like the plot of a Hollywood movie, but one gigantic asteroid is scheduled to come within 20,000 miles of Earth in the near future -- a near miss in cosmic measurements -- and the possibility remains that it could hit our planet and cause catastrophic devastation never seen before.

"Human expansion into our solar system is fundamentally about the survival of the species. Our species hasn't been around long enough to experience a cataclysmic extinction event. But they will occur again whether we are ready for them or not," NASA Administrator Michael Griffin told an audience at Langley Research Center.

The asteroid that has made the space community sit up and take notice is nicknamed Apophis, after the Egyptian god of destruction.

Over 300 meters in diameter and weighing 25 million tons, it is set to come within 20,000 miles of Earth in 2029. And that date for the near miss? April 13, 2029, which should get the doomsday soothsayers excited.

We need not start preparing to evacuate Earth just yet. Scientists have been tracking the asteroid and with each new cache of data the chances of impact decrease. Current estimates put the chances of impact at one in 45,000.

The threat is real, however. If Apophis passes the earth at a distance of exactly 18,893 miles it will open a "gravitational keyhole" causing it to enter a new orbit that would put it on a direct collision course with earth seven years later. Current predictions are that Apophis will pass between 18,880 and 20,880 miles from earth.

Hitting the earth at 28,000 mph an asteroid the size and mass of Apophis would pack the energy of 58,000 Hiroshima nuclear bombs.

The "Tunguska Event" that flattened over 800 square miles of Siberian forest in 1908 was caused by a stony asteroid only 50 meters in diameter exploding in the lower atmosphere.

Leading the campaign for a global response to NEOs and a closer exploration of their physical make up is former astronaut Russell Schweickart, who piloted the lunar module of Apollo 9 in 1969.

He has been championing the cause to send a spacecraft onto an asteroid to study the potential mineral reserves there and also how one might be deflected if it was on a collision cause with Earth.

"The problem is nobody is responsible to protect the Earth. You might think that NASA does it, but that's not really their job. More needs to be done in terms of developing propulsion systems for spacecraft to intercept these NEOs because these are natural disasters that we can prevent," Schweickart told CNN.

"We have a good idea of what might come from Apophis and there inevitably will be other asteroids which will need different solutions and potential threats that will need new technology. Apophis was targeted because what better than to have practice at putting a transponder on an asteroid," he told CNN.

Placing a transponder on an asteroid would enable scientists to closely track the asteroid wherever it may be in its orbit via telescopes and radar from earth.

In 2005 Schweickart successfully campaigned for NASA to take the issue of NEOs seriously, the result has been a number of NASA centers developing prospective plans to land a spacecraft and even astronauts on an asteroid.

However the practicalities of landing a spacecraft to monitor, explore or deflect an asteroid still face a number of challenges. NASA is set to present the U.S. Congress with a report on how best to track and deal with the potential hazard of asteroids colliding with Earth at the end of the year and a Planetary Defense Conference will convene in March 2007, sponsored by a multi-national group including NASA, the European Space Agency and the Indian Space Research Organization.

Schweickart believes that the means to deflect an asteroid are already at our disposal and is pleased that NASA has agreed with him that action would need to be taken years before a potential impact in order to neutralize the threat.

The ways to deal with the threat include simply flying a spacecraft into an errant asteroid or either attaching one to it or parking one alongside it, like a gravity tractor, to pull it into another orbit.

The asteroid tugboat idea was developed by Schweickart and his team at Foundation B612. As a concept it's relatively straightforward. It involves the docking a small robotic spacecraft onto the surface of an asteroid and then using the same propulsion unit that got it there to push the asteroid off its course.

The alternative method of a gravity tractor spares the spacecraft the need to land. The spacecraft would be sent towards the asteroid and positioned either in front of it to speed it up or behind the NEO to slow it down. The technology is very similar to DeepSpace-1, the mission that was successfully sent to test emerging space technologies in 1999.

"There is no need for new technology in deflection spacecraft. You can just run into it as long as you get the direction correct and hit it fairly centrally. Most of the challenges are really only engineering based and certainly achievable," Schweickart told CNN.

The exploration of NEOs would be useful for NASA in the development of its Orion spacecraft that is being developed for its lunar missions.

Plans to land astronauts on an asteroid have been mooted and the technology involved in landing astronauts on the moon once again would not require too much adaptation to landing on an NEO. Valuable data could be collected with an NEO trial run, particularly testing Orion's high-speed heat shields.

Schweickart for one is an advocate of the idea and sees an NEO program as a win/win scenario:

"Public safety has to be a higher priority than exploration. It may be good to go back to the moon, but if you're going there for resources there are potentially far richer reserves on NEOs and they're easier to get to. We should be looking to use our resources to protect life on earth, plus it would cost a fraction of the proposed lunar mission.

"Even with all the plotting of asteroid orbits and tracking of them, action always will have to be taken before we know for sure whether or not an asteroid will hit earth. That is the nature of protecting the earth from impact. It happens very seldom, but when it does it is absolutely devastating."

Find this article at:
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As to the waves, check out these studies on tsunamis from asteroid impacts:

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CC

Just for perspective:

Tunguska: 10-20 megatons
Krakatoa: 200 megatons
Apophis: 880 megatons

CC

I find it fascinating that they named Apophis after the "god" of Stargate fame, with the underlying implications. Hopefully, if and when this occurs, it won't have the implications that would occur with an onslaught of that Apophis.

I also find the info about Yellowstone fascinating. There was a program on either the History Channel or Discover about Dinosaurs that included a gigantic volcanic eruption of the very young Rocky Mountains? that took out everything for miles.

Can anyone other than me draw the conclusion that just maybe NASA knows something more about this when it was announced awhile back that we will also be going back to the moon to set up a permanent moonbase starting in 2020? Let's see, U.S. ex-presidents and their families, high ranking members of Congress (and their families), members of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (and their families) will be "vacationing" there in 2029 and 2036…

news.bbc.co.uk/2/6208456.stm
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Like I said, does anyone see something curious when we compare the dates of a visit by Apophis to a permanent moonbase being completed previous to those dates? I don't know, but there might be a whole lot of folks running for president in the election of 2028!

LOL. Maybe the asteroid will hit the moon then?

CC

CC, we can only hope! That now reminds me of the Hitchhiker's Guide where they shipped all of a planet's useless people like hairdressers, advertising account executives and telephone sanitizers by fooling them the planet was about to be destroyed. Maybe life will imitate art and save us all, heh.

It would only be a temporary measure, I fear. Others will move in to fill the vacancies and things will go bad again.

CC

April 13th, 2029… That wouldnt happen to be a Friday, would it?

Nekron99, I'm afraid that yes it's on a Friday.

Two interesting Fridays, April 13th (both).

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Friday the 13th, 2029

Friday the 13th is supposed to be an unlucky day, the sort of day you trip on your shoe laces or lose your wallet or get bad news.

But maybe it's not so bad. Consider this: On April 13th--Friday the 13th--2029, millions of people are going to go outside, look up and marvel at their good luck. A point of light will be gliding across the sky, faster than many satellites, brighter than most stars.
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Apophis: The Asteroid That Could Smash Into The Earth on Friday, April 13th, 2036

Apophis is an asteroid with an slightly offset orbit to that of Earth's. Discovered in June 2004, astronomers have determined that it will make a very close flyby on April 13th, 2029, where it will pass to within 5 Earth diameters of us. The exact path the asteroid follows on its flyby in 2029 will determine whether it smashes into the Earth seven years later.
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The flyby will make the orbit a bit bigger and Apophis will travel a bit slower. How much the orbit changes depends on how close it gets to us. If it flies through a specific 610-meter wide region of space as it goes past us in 2029, then Apophis' and the Earth will be in the exact same spot 7 years later on Friday April 13th, 2036.
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So what is evident is that this will be a combined effect of two unlucky fridays, namely Friday the 13th squared! Yikes!

Meteor (Barringer) Crater Arizona is the result of a piece that was only 80 feet across. Yet it produced a crater that is about 1,200 m (4,000 ft) in diameter, and some 170 m deep (570 ft).
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Apohis is almost 1,100 feet across. According to PBS, if made of rock, it will make (with a force of 125,000 Hiroshima bombs) a crater 3.4 miles (5.5 km) across. If iron, it will make (with the force of 360,000 Hiroshima bombs) a crater 5 miles (8 km) wide.
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Past impacts on Earth:
unb.ca/passc/ImpactDatabase
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They need to start target-practicing NOW:
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Our only hope is the Red Chinese.

They are the only power on earth still up for grand scale engineering (Three Gorges Dam). They also tend to think more than a year or two ahead.

Da Big Kahunna

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Yeah. It will be China's chance to annex, erm "assist", Japan.

If it were to strike the moon instead, would it create more debris and worse conditions for Earth than a direct hit?

Nah, the green cheese would burn up easily in Earth's atmo, heh.

It looks like one big dinosaur egg: link

Nice waves:

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Better if it hit land, I think. That way the damage would be less widespread.

CC

Lots of info on asteroid tsunamis here:

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CC

About Meteor Crater AZ, the National Geographic's Naked Science episode on asteroids claims that the impact of that small (up to 150 foot) rock flattened and killed everything within a 50 mile radius (100 mile diameter).

Apophis seems to be 7 times wider, 1050 feet across (and many more times bigger in total mass).

CC

There are claims that the resulting debris in the atmosphere from the impact at Meteor Crater also had effects worldwide on other life forms. What date did they use for the impact? To use an example of possibility involving species depletion, insects adapted the survival strategy of retreating within other things such as plants or perished, in some cases.

Meteor Crater AZ:

"Scientists now believe that the crater was created approximately 50,000 years ago. The meteorite which made it was composed almost entirely of nickel-iron, suggesting that it may have originated in the interior of a small planet. It was 150 feet across, weighed roughly 300,000 tons, and was traveling at a speed of 40,000 miles per hour. The force generated by its impact was equal to the explosion of 20 million tons of TNT."
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Apophis would definitely be much worse.

CC

On the 2029 fly-by, Apophis will be very, very close:

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The gravitational influence of Earth in the 2029 fly-by will affect how close it really gets (or if it impacts) in 2036.

CC

NASA's impact risk assessment for 2036:

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CC

Well…in 2029…we'll just have to 'give it a nudge' as they will have the replacement for Shuttle flying by then…I hope??? set off a series of small, NON-nuke charges in sequence as it rotates….that will help it to swing further away…(or a very large can of black paint so that the heat difference/solar pressure will divert it???

Or a couple big mult-meg lasers/microwave beams????

(or I could just see if 'my close personal friend' Big C would flick it with ONE of his facial tentacles as he's on his way to EAT all of us for a lite snack..?)

"or a very large can of black paint so that the heat difference/solar pressure will divert it"

LOL. Citadel primer, perhaps? Or would that be too cost-prohibitive?

CC

Apophis in the news . . .

TMP link

CC

Better start digging in deep then.

Apophis countdown clock:

99942-apophis.com

CC

The winning asteroid tracking proposals:

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CC