"when will China attack?" Topic

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Next six months?
Blockade to starve Taiwan?
Massive invasion?
Chaos attack in US?

Missile barrages would not only smash military sites on the ROC but also any US bases in Japan, Guam, and the Philippines. While this chaos is being created in Asia, Beijing's 20,000 or more men of military age smuggled into the US under the protocols of President Joe Biden's open border begin attacks in conjunction with Mexican cartels.

The US loses complete control of the southern border with shootouts at border crossing points and sabotage attacks inside of the border on the Texas side. Infrastructure is brought down by attacks on power grids.

They are too smart to do any of this, IMO. Although we have to keep close watch on them. The assumptions about their capabilities sound more like a movie plot.

No way to be sure, but many Chinese illegals turned out to be fleeing Xi's regime, where things aren't all that great.

They almost certainly run a significant espionage network in the US. Spying is the national pastime. Any overt acts of organized violence would blow their cover.

The trade war hurts the US as much as anyone. Putin and Xi have no reason to attack us when we continue to fall apart on our own, attacking our own institutions, losing influence as we pull back globally, and they look for opportunities. All they need to do is watch the Great Divide continue and see where it takes us, step in where they can.

Lincoln was right about the greatest threat to the USA.

… the U.S. and Japan deploy their submarine forces to enforce a blockade against Chinese shipping. Within two months the Chinese manufacturing and energy sectors collapse, tanking the economy. All except the CCP elite and military are without electricity, heat, or fuel. Within six months the UN records "the worst famine in human history" which results in millions of fatalities.

After the American economy collapses into total chaos.
Next Thursday?

get off my lawn

John the OFM

When you have facts on your side, argue the facts. When you have law on your side, argue the law. When you have neither, holler "next Thursday".

When we least expect it, I would imagine.

Best invasion window each year based on sea conditions is April or October. Build up isn't happening yet so April of 2026 to October of 2027. US is distracted in the near term but might not be by 2030. US is ramping up defense production and better supporting defense industries. Anduril, Palantir, and similar companies are making ground breaking military tech before the US military asks and then offering it to the military. Semi autonomous drone swarms are coming. Suicide drones that can come home if they don't need to strike. Drone interceptors that are cheap are on the way. Autonomous subs to mine the Taiwan Strait and hunt Chinese ships. By 2030 our artillery shell production will be way up. Missile production will be up. Stinger replacement will be in the field. B21 fleet will be operational. Constellation frigates will be joining the fleet. The Navy is looking to double ship production using South Korean and Japanese firms. The US Navy and Air Force already enjoy vast superiority in quality and numbers. As the F47 comes into service the gap will increase. If China waits things get harder. If I were on their general staff I would advocate hitting very soon.

Their shot was while they had a man in the big house. Too late now.

Tort, hope you are right!

Who was it said, "Russia is never as strong as she appears. Russia is never as weak as she appears."?

I expect that is true of China as well, and also, probably in different ways, for the USA.

I suspect they slowly increase their influence in Taiwan – political, cultural, economic – until Taiwan falls on hard times. Then there's a referendum and the island votes to rejoin China. I've heard some convincing arguments that this is the plan and it's progressing. Could take a couple o decades, maybe even four, but that's the thing to fear. War would certainly mean the destruction of some semiconductor plants China would like to take over, and wars can get out of control. Slow subversion is more manageable.

China can afford to play The Long Game. Their problem is an elderly leadership who might not be willing to play that Long Game. The Smart People in the West thought that Putin was on his deathbed and would kick off soon. Obviously that hasn't happened yet.

The commitment of the USA is lukewarm at best, and the policy changes every 4 years. That's to China's advantage. If Taiwan does ANYTHING to annoy ….. that commitment is as dead as a commitment to NATO. Let's just say that a real estate developer with past history of dealing with the Mob isn't too invested in our "Allies".

China has enough weapons to do it. Delays just add more stuff. The old racist cliché that "They care nothing for human life!" might have some truth. Throw warm bodies in at the start, save the Élite troops for important stuff. That would be my plan, on a boardgame.

China has problems. Big problems. If the USA shows any signs of weakness, or instability with the "treaty" with Taiwan (which doesn't officially exist, and is from previous administrations that are not in favor), China might just abandon The Long Game and go for it. There might even be a secret Molotov Ribbentrop codicil to settling the tariff issue. Then, if Xi gets Bad News from his doctors, Go For It!

My scenario depends on both Chinese and American instability. I would not bet against either.

See my post here:
TMP link

You have to realize it is not a purely military decision. Look at the other geopolitical players, both external and internal.

The strategic mindset of the 2020s is not the same as the 1960s or 1979s.
Many of the thinkers here and elsewhere are mired in the past.
China is only beginning their cyber warfare campaign.

China's long game might be too long, they are running out of young adults

Yes and the US just fired its cyber commander based on the recommendation of a 30 yr old far right internet conspiracy personality.

In any case, +1 to smithsco. If we haven't killed the golden goose, the US, not China, will be setting the standard for next gen military tech. While the Chinese make off with the plans.

China and Taiwan are both running below the childbirth replacement rate. Will the last person alive in either country please remember to turn off the lights.

Yes, though not as bad as Japan.

+1 Jay R S

China can afford to play The Long Game.

They always have. And seems they still are in some cases …

Their problem is an elderly leadership who might not be willing to play that Long Game.

Same could be said about some in the US Congress, DC, etc.

With age comes wisdom it has been said. But we see in many cases that does not happen.

Yes and the US just fired its cyber commander based on the recommendation of a 30 yr old far right internet conspiracy personality.

I think there is more to it than that. IMO We probably don't know what really happened. And we most likely won't. Getting the "real story/the truth" from much of the media is not very probable.

However, I'm not really defending anyone on this event. However, as we saw in the last Trump admin. A number of former high-ranking officers were fired or resigned.

Part of that then and now is a lot of times a room full of "Alphas" don't always get along. And the US military take its orders from the CinC/POTUS. As long as they are lawful no matter how dumb, bad, etc. those orders are, e.g. the A'stan debacle. That will go down in history as one of the bigger failures in warfare. And certainly, so far in the 21st Century.

Another point, IMO, kinds of in line with my comment above. With all the negative, biased, skewed, etc. information, etc. from the vast majority of the media, etc. May certainly have influenced, etc. these high-ranking Military GENs' opinions of the POTUS.

I know … I know Officers whether they like the CinC, etc. or not. As long as the orders are legal you do the best of your ability carry them out.

So like with like with members of Congress, certain judges, etc. They don't always do what is best for the nation, etc. But do what is good for them, their party, etc. that fits their agenda and narrative.

China and Taiwan are both running below the childbirth replacement rate. Will the last person alive in either country please remember to turn off the lights.

Add to that situation, there are some Taiwanese who think the island should be part of the PRC. Even though the CCP believes it already is …
 

China has been conducting asymmetrical warfare against the West for about a decade.
They make nearly all the Fentanyl in the world and they killed 70,000 to 100,000 Americans every year for the last four years.
They hack our systems and steal our data. They harvest our data legally with TicTok and others.
They steal our technology by sending kids to our colleges and our companies and take the information back to them.
They buy our farmland and land near our military bases.
China thinks they can defeat the West by measures short of warfare. China is right on the edge of war with the Philippines. But they don't want to push it over the edge to war, they want to get the other side to back down without war.

Mike

If China says it will "reclaim" Taiwan, it certainly has that intention & should be taken seriously.

China would not embark on this when US power is waxing.

Although it is a little early to be writing this, the American Age could well be over. US concern for global issues seems to be waning.

American alliances are doubtful thanks to some unambiguous statements – especially about NATO – by members of your regime:
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If the US has no allies beyond the Phillipines (yippee!), Japan (maybe) & South Korea (probably not), China might take the chance that the US wouldn't do anything active.

The recent tariff fiasco has alienated, well, pretty well everyone.
In the near future, China, Japan & south Korea might be a trading bloc, disinclined to aid a power that has hurt them economically.
Even the staunchest of allies (OZ) is starting to look elsewhere.

This article is by a conservative, pro-US body & read what they have to say-
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You should read what less restrained Aussies (including politicians) are saying. There's a feeling of betrayal. How well could you fight in Taiwan if Pine Gap was closed to you? And no Aussie bases for you to use?

So "defeat the West" is possibly not relevant & "defeat the US" is at the best it's ever been.

BTW I know the "usual suspects" will jump up and down over the post above.

I am NOT anti-American & I really do wish things weren't as dire as they seem & seem to be heading. Possibly world domination for China is still a bit unlikely, but the domination of Asia is a better than even chance now IMO.

Long games can't be sustained by command & control economies. China is a paper tiger, all show and bluffs.

Tortorella has the right of it.

Bunk… Don't forget releasing a genetically modified disease on the world and the balloon flyovers.

Buck +1

And yes, the standard is to never underestimate your enemy … So pretty much everything the Chicoms say, do etc. should be take at least somewhat seriously.

Ochoin…my issue with your post is China, Japan, and South Korea as a trading bloc. They all hate each other. They may trade with each other but will never trust each other. Japan will never lean away from the US to China. Super unrealistic

smithsco, of course they hate each other. THAT was the point. I'm guessing. Hopefully, an educated guess.
When it comes down to it history, cultural differences, mutual hatred all give way to money & self-interest.

If your countries prosperity lies in economic dealings even with a past enemy, you'll follow the cash.I'm sure you know there's not a great deal of love lost between the Germans & the French? They find it possible to co-operate.

And anyway, my point wasn't that Japanese troops would die for China's ambitions, they just wouldn't die for the US either. Why would you send troops to help a nation that has scr*wed your economy?

The US is looking increasingly isolated because of actions it's taking. I truly, truly hope it's not too late for some major sucking up to the old allies.
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Just as an illustrative aside – there's an election due here shortly. The (mildly) Socialist government looked like losing. The Conservative opposition (mildly but Trump-loving) seemed to be on top. In the space of the past week, it appears likely the government will be re-elected because of rather new American unpopularity. Don't think this phenomena will be repeated across the globe?

It is becoming increasingly difficult to track the reality of trade numbers between US and the rest of the world. But it is safe to say that the current US regime has portrayed an inaccurate picture.

For all the countries that are unfriending America, remember that we are divided down the middle and the trade information you hear is not always correct. A couple of examples: Our trade deficit with China has never been 1 trillion dollars, or even close. Europe is the 4th largest importer of American agricultural products. Tariffs are paid by the importers, not the exporters, and passed on to consumers here in the US. While I found yesterday's POTUS remarks on trade a bit hard to follow, his beliefs are not universally supported here in any case.

Plenty of Americans are not in step with the current leadership. Our major economic institutions, like JPMorgan, Moody, etc. have the opposite view of the President on tariffs, and his poll number are slipping. We in the eye of the storm, waiting, just as all you others are.

Japan seems to be one of the first to the table of negotiations. Israel has started talks as has S Korea.

Currently the number seems to be around 70.
Just a few of them.

Subject: Trump Tariffs: Here's The List Of Countries Wanting To Negotiate


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And to quote "Parzival" in another post in TMP:

"Here's a question:
If tariffs are economically a Bad Idea, why do all of these countries have their own tariffs on the US?"

smithco +1

OVI + 1

Yeah they seem to be lining up to get in to see the POTUS … Hmmm ? Who would have thought ?

Sure, the tariff idea is working. That's why all the negotiations between non-American countries & the economic turmoil has settled.
Checked your retirement savings lately?

Delusional is the word I'm looking for.

Our best bet is they manufacture a "win" for him to provide a an off-track.

🥱

"If tariffs are economically a Bad Idea, why do all of these countries have their own tariffs on the US?"

Economically illiterate? I am your teacher in so much. I'll send a bill….

1.High tariffs are incredibly rare in the modern world
No significant nation has across the board tariffs like Trump brought in. Some are used to protect certain key industries.
eg there's a tariff barrier to US fresh beef in OZ because of bio security hazards (rabies).

2. Tariffs aren't used as a weapon by anyone much other than China. You risk starting a Trade War that NO-ONE wins

3 All of the tariffs that trump claimed other countries have on the US are complete nonsense. They were calculated by taking US exports to a given country and dividing it by American imports. This represents a pathetic understanding of tariffs and trade on the part of your regime.

4. The current tariffs the US are implementing will serve the US economic ruination for the next decade.

Clear enough for you?

The US has not only lost a mind-boggling amount of financial power (your retirement funds, gents?) in the past few weeks but also a huge amount of political power.

No-one trusts the US any more. This may be alleviated a bit if the US regime does a back flip but it cannot be cured.

I'm pretty sure China is aware of this state of affairs.

Yeah I'm not paying that bill considering I actually teach this stuff. If rational interest trumps history then WWI and WWII don't happen. We are humans not robots.

Your points also lack logical connections to make an argument. And they're flawed. For example the idea nobody trusts the US is objectively false. Japan and Israel's approaches show trust.

@ smithsco. No bill. You can string a sentence together too.

The beauty of "my" position is, apart from the fact that an overwhelming majority of experts hold it, we merely have to wait to see it vindicated.

Cherry picking is an amusing approach. "No-one" should be be allowed to exclude Israel – what a surprise that "Johnny-no-friends" is sucking up to the US?

Japan & China – "partners not rivals"
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I understand you speak from a position of wanting things to be better but the reality you can't face (how human, how unrobotic!) is grim.

You my teacher? The 💩 is getting deep. I'd drop that class day one. 😂

You didn't answer the question. You first said they are not that high. Then you made excuses for their existence. Then you tell us they exist, but they really are not a weapon, except by maybe China.

They exist, they have been used as a weapon to protect a country's own industries and agriculture. Specifically in many cases against the U.S.

Why a subject of the "Wizard" is so worried about our welfare and how we will be viewed as a pariah by the other countries of the world, is beyond me. Now he is worried about our 401Ks. RIGHTTTTT. 😉

Maybe I should be concerned about his superannuation fund. 🤔

All and OZ is one of those countries calling the White House. Better get on the phone to your government and tell them to hold the line against the EVIL orange man. Or personally work out a trade alliance with China. At 104%, they will be needing someone to buy their products now.

Subject: Japan to Get Priority in Trade Talks After Trump-Ishiba Call – Bloomberg


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Subject: Japan responds to Trump's tariffs with a polite phone call and request – The Japan Times


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"Sydney morning Herald" April 7th

"PM confirms Australia trying to negotiate tariffs deal
Anthony Albanese has confirmed Australia is among dozens of countries trying to negotiate a tariffs deal with the US president."

35th, yes, bravo.

The future may be grim. But you saying it is doesn't make it a certainty. Nor do supposed experts pronouncements guarantee outcomes. Experts frequently make mistakes. Experts say tariffs will be good. Then other ones say they won't.

Now if Japan and China were partners China wouldn't claim Japanese islands and violate their air space and Japan wouldn't be deploying new anti ship missiles that are aimed at Chinese bases. I have a neighbor who has thrown some of my kids toys that were in my lawn into the road because they were too close to his lawn. Just because I say hi to him and try to have peace doesn't mean I will ever work with the guy in anything.

Breaking:

"BREAKING: South Korea has stated it will not retaliate against U.S. tariffs, is seeking to negotiate a new trade agreement" … CNN

Per economist Paul Krugman today, the Europeans are averaging 1.7% tariffs on the US.

What were/are the tariffs on Russia?

What were/are the tariffs on Russia?

I believe the administration has said (1) trade with Russia is minimal currently, and (2) the peace negotiations take precedence.

Well, minimal trade did not get the penguins off the hook. Or Madagascar, where the sole significant export is vanilla.

And what happened to new sanctions on Russia?

Tort Russia did not get new ones, as it was said they already had tariffs added because of the war in Ukraine. Same with other countries we already had tariffs on.

Also remember trade treaties or deals take years to work out. USMC took two years. Now, try making such treaties or deals with over 100 countries. This is not a snap your fingers and everything is wonderful.