"thoughts on China attacking Taiwan" Topic

An extended analysis by a confessed amateur. Channel your inner Tom Clancy.

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o, at times like this, I cannot help but wonder what's holding them up? Anybody who has read more than two Tom Clancy novels has a little part of themselves that says, "Hey, I can figure this out too!" After all, he got his initiation into the world of spy/military writing by wargaming and reading history books. He didn't have a formal background in military planning, but he talked to people who did, and he had a great mind for figuring stuff out. Well before the end of his life, military experts were coming to him with questions and opinions. I'm certainly not on that level, but I admit I do like to dabble. So before anybody flames me for being a know-nothing armchair quarterback, understand that I realize my experience and knowledge are very limited, but I am willing to learn.

What is holding them up is trade!

Already in trouble with US trade, what do you think the rest of the free nations of the world would do?
With enough people out of work, China can either crack down on their people or try to weather it out.
Both do not work well for them.

My understanding of Taiwan's defence strategy is that they know they couldn't stop an invasion. They would instead fight a guerilla war to make the island totally unmanageable for as long as possible. China would have to devastate most of the island to take it over and likely pay a high cost in lives, which is not in their interest. It is better to try and influence the population and convince them that joining China is a good idea. I don't believe that the American people would accept risking American lives directly fighting China over Taiwan.

A couple of friends and I attended one of Clancy's talks at an Origins Convention years ago when the so called Cold War ended. He stated that "communism was dead!" My one friend stood up and asked "What about the 1.4 billion Chinese and North Koreans and the die-hard Russians?" The question was ignored and we walked out quickly when his security detail started walking towards us. Too bad he didn't have a good answer for my friend's question back then!! 🫢

I attended a lecture on the death of Communism in 1967! But the argument was that it was dead as an ideology, not, obviously, as a soviet system.

How many here were ever stationed in Taiwan? There was good reason why the US by-passed it in WWII.

Mining harbors is a conventional strategy for bottling-up naval assets. How many minesweepers do the chinese have?

Many factors at play in this scenario beside strictly military assets.

As in any dictatorship xi is in a constant power struggle with others who want to take his place.
The chinese economy is already in serious trouble.
Demographically the pool of military age males is shrinking with no increase visible for several generations.
The youth population is disaffected with the "let it rot" movement.
Military construction suffers from "tofu dregs" and corruption.

Would India view the invasion as an opportunity take on the reduced military presence on the disputed border regions? Or Russia on china's western or northern borders? And just how tight is Kim tied to their apron strings?

Plus, there remains the possibility of defensive pacts with Western or Asian countries.

Also, how fast can the US develop and deploy the "Golden Dome"?

Captain Sensible +1 Yes if the Chicoms can successfully establish beach heads. The Taiwanese if they could not contain them on the beach. They will use the mountainous terrain, etc. to their advantage. Using both guerilla warfare tactics. And even setting up some tough defensive positions as the Germans did in WWII Italy.

Plus IIRC there are not that many usable places to land and establish beach heads.

The Chicoms have little experience in Amphibious/forced entry ops. However, they do have bodies. That will be telling in the fight to push the Chicoms off the beaches. If they even can establish beach head(s) …

There are those who will tell you that Communism and/or Socialism have never been REALLY tried. Therefore they can't be called "failures". 😄

Reminds me of the Schrodinger's Cat paradigm.

But again, never underestimate you enemy. However don't overestimate them either. E.g. the Goldilocks Zone …

Be prepared either way …

The Taiwan issue is secondary. It's just a pretext. The primary issue is the confrontation for hegemony in the world. The US and China need the same markets.

China can seize Taiwan. The only question is the price of the issue. I don't think the US will go to war for a state that it doesn't even officially recognize. Taiwan is formally a rebellious province of China.

The political map of the world is changing before our eyes and very quickly. I won't be surprised if the EU and China will soon be allies.

John the OFM, communism has never existed anywhere. Communism is the absence of a state and monetary relations.
Socialism has many different forms. For example, northern Europe (Finland, Sweden, etc.) is also socialism.
You just don't understand what it is)))

I have no expectations of Taiwan defeating a Chinese attack.
I would expect Taiwan to seek peace or just surrender before too much infantry-structure is destroyed.

Ultimately China takes Taiwan. For now just getting there is not settled for them. They get way more out of sabre rattling on this than they would actually trying it.

The question of mines should include the US deployment of remotely detonated mines to defend the island, sea drones, etc. The Chinese still are not ready with enough transport capacity, there is basically one area for large landings. Rough terrain..

But they really want a fleet in being to balance against the USN and allies. Not to risk major ops, but to keep the west in check. IMO

John the OFM…
Socialism has many different forms. For example, northern Europe (Finland, Sweden, etc.) is also socialism.
You just don't understand what it is)))

I was using the snarky phrase "There are those who will tell you…."
I was of course referring to hard core "progressive" college and university professors who hold dear to the theoretical concept of "socialism".
They are very picky and get quite hostile when told that some country is not sufficiently pure, in their minds. I had the misfortune to take a required course from one, back in the 70s. Even then…
I think I got a C.

My "understanding" is quite irrelevant here. I'm reporting on what some of the intelligentsia believed. You know. "The first against the wall when the Revolution comes".

What you call yourself is kind of not the point. Fidel Castro denied he was a Communist in the early days. When he was literally attacked for being a Communist, he said "Screw it. I'm a Communist!" and sought out the protection of the Soviet Union. You know. The guys who you claim were never "Communists". 😄
But they said they were, and said that Castro was too. The CIA confirmed they were too. And that's all that matters.

I think establishing a beached or airhead is pretty likely. Resupplying it could be very daunting. US Navy and USAF have lots of things to make that contested space extraordinarily dangerous. Wargames to date indicate substantial Chinese losses without success.

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As I posted, I think they have a limited number of places where a beach landing could happen. Sometimes the terrain is not always good for these types of ops.

Of course, another consideration is how much of the landing forces make it to the beach. The battle at sea and air will have to be somewhat successful to the force to land at all.

However, I agree resupply is as always critical. And for this to happen effectively they must have at least parity in the air and at sea.

As with all amphib/forced entry ops it is one of the most complex missions any military can undertake.

Again, correct Legion, and the capabilities of the politically appointed Chinese military commanders to plan and lead this kind of operation is probably still evolving.

The use of the naval militia, basically commercial and private boats, as part of the transport plan seems a little sketchy to me – I would not want to be herding this bunch to an invasion beach. But the Chinese have a couple of amphibious command and support ships under construction.

As with their modest carrier force, it is the fleet in being threat that matters most to them. If US loses would be heavy, China might take itself out of the game for years taking such a risk.

Tort +1

John the OFM, the French bourgeois (capitalist) revolution was also very bloody and led to monstrous repressions, civil war, revolutionary wars against the interventionists, and then to the usurpation of power by Napoleon and a series of "Napoleonic wars".
And no communism or socialism. This is a very likely process during any revolution, that is, a sharp change in the political order in the country. On a sharp turn and at high speed, there is always a danger of flying off the road and getting into a catastrophe…

LostPict, the problem with all HQ games is that you think and decide for your opponent. And your opponent may make decisions that are completely different from those you expected.

I've been of the opinion for several years that Ukraine saved Taiwan. When they smashed the conventional tank forces Putin sent towards Kiev the Chinese went 'dang!' because they realized that warfare had changed. The javelin rendered the Russian dictator's tanks useless. Imagine what next generation surprises the Taiwanese have waiting for the Chicoms.

"There are those who will tell you that Communism and/or Socialism have never been REALLY tried. Therefore they can't be called "failures"."

I like Jordan Peterson's take on this statement. He says that when someone says this what they really mean is 'if I was in charge, it would work.'