"Fort Leavenworth’s Tactical Game of the Ukraine War" Topic

"Having played the game a number of times with various audiences, I would say it demonstrated hobby wargamers were routinely better than military professionals in terms of tactics at the company level battle.

The rules were written at Fort Leavenworth, one of the homes of the American Army. First written in 2020 for a US v Russian battle in eastern Europe, the hit probabilities were considerably edited in the light of watching lots of YouTube videos about the actual Ukraine War in 2022. Russian units were downgraded considerably in the light of actual war…"

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Armand

"Having played the game a number of times with various audiences, I would say it demonstrated hobby wargamers were routinely better than military professionals in terms of tactics at the company level battle"

Easy to say when in a nice warm wargames room, abstracted terrain, not having 101 other considerations besides the battle, and having a gods eye view of the terrain and enemy positions, not withstanding having to rethink tactics from a couple of decades asymmetric warfighting,

Tally Ho!

A fighting withdrawal has been called one of the most difficult defensive missions to accomplish – the report characterizes the hobby wargamers as too aggressive for force preservation.

Conversely, the article characterizes the professionals as being less aggressive in the attack, as the attacking Russians.

Perhaps the scenario just encourages aggressive action?

In Ukraine, the Russian offensive posture demands aggressive action, with high AFV losses resulting, and with heavy infantry losses (routinely called "meat attacks").

Maybe hobby wargamers are more used to aggressive gaming and might routinely accept the consequence of game losses, so perform well as Russians, but not so good as Ukrainians?

Btw, in Ukraine, they have long-called Russian troops – Orcs.

Nick,
I think everyone was playing under the same conditions.

They used an IGYG game system which is entirely unrealistic as real combat is time-competitive with better crews and weapons platforms executing orders quicker and thus seizing the initiative. A gamer would have an advantage over a real tactical commander with combat experience.

A 16-year-old with extensive knowledge of Squad Leader will beat a combat veteran Squad Leader too as SL is not real combat.

NATO and the US have already learned that their Cold War combined arms tactics will not work in Ukraine. Air Superiority is now defined as an advantage in drones, not 4th generation fighters and bombers.

Poor training from NATO: link

Most of the WOT vets I've talked to who have fought in Ukraine said the only experience in that war they can use is urban, house-to-house fighting. Westerners are not ready for hours of sustained artillery bombardment and about 30% of the Western volunteers go home after a few combats or suffering under a barrage. Many don't feel that it is worth the risk when there is minimal chance of a causality evacuation. Rather than a "Golden Hour" to survive in Ukraine, it is a "Golden Five Hour."

When I visited Ukraine I offered to give blood but was told there is no need. Why? Because if you have bleeding that cannot be stopped in the field you'll die by the time you get to the hospital.

The main military hospital in Dnipro has dozens of body bags stacked at the entrance to the emergency room because so many die on the way. NATO and the West will have the same experience.

Wolfhag

They're characterizing the Ukrainian infantry arm as a death sentence now.

The recruitment process draws on middle-age and an older populace, and there aren't enough new replacements to allow rotation of exhausted troops.

I do like the wargames' emphasis on tank obscuration mechanics.

TMP link

Affects that are lacking [ignored] in commerical wargame rules.

FlyXwire,
One of the main Russian tactics is to keep the pressure on as much and as long as possible. This wears down the defenders and uses up their ammo. Sometimes they'll send an assault wave without support to make it easier for follow-up attacks.

These are not necessarily "meat wave attacks" like WWII as the new Assault Tactics use multiple teams armed differently. They normally carry 2-3 mags and 1-2 grenades as they are not expected to last long once the shooting starts. Their main mission is to get shot at so the Ukie defenders are exposed and can be taken under mortar, AGL, and tank direct fire. Once the defenders get worn down enough or run out of ammo the regular troops go in. As soon as a trench line is taken an APC will roll up and drop off more defenders and ammo getting prepared for a Ukie counterattack.

Yes, a fighting withdrawal is difficult. The Ukie trench defenders will generally wait until night to fall back 300-1000m across open farmland terrain to the next defensive trench line. If the trench line gets overwhelmed there is little chance of falling back. You fight or surrender.

I think the game scenario they played ended somewhat realistically as defending without artillery and an FO makes it very hard to defend.

Wolfhag

The recruitment process draws on middle-age and an older populace, and there aren't enough new replacements to allow rotation of exhausted troops.

Yes, the Ukrainian birth replacement is 1.3 so the young guys are encouraged to make babies. I don't think I saw a soldier under 30 at any of the train stations. Many guys are finishing up their two-year commitment and want to go home. I don't blame them.

Semi-independent formations like Kraken, Azov, and DaVinci Wolves attract young volunteers and do their own fundraising. They have recruiting posters all over the large cities, some portraying fighting zombies and orcs. Their morale is still high and they are very effective fighters.

A drone operator and FO who was in Bakhmut from Nov 2022 to March 2023 told me that as long as they had the 155mm ammo and 120mm mortars they could repulse most of the Russian assaults, especially if they knocked out the vehicles. If they and the defenders ran low on ammo, they'd fall back. There were some reports of defenders falling back without permission too (morale?). At night the Westerners would use NVG to lead counterattacks to take back the trenches.

Since they were firing on the same grid square for days and even weeks, the artillery was extremely accurate.

Wolfhag

Indeed, there's a codified Russian 'assault doctrine' based on these forlorn hope attacks, where expectations are that they might achieve some effects for any follow-on, regular units.

Very similar to the use of the penal battalions (Strafbataillon) of WW2, but of course now with jazzy names like Sturm Z or V units.

Report on changes in tactics and capabilities of the Russian army. Created a year ago:

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Assault tactics according to the new staffing schedule: Kyiv was told how Russia is fighting
February 6, 2024
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An assault platoon of the Russian army in the Northern Military District zone according to Polish analyst Maciej Korowai. Illustration: blackseanews.net

The Russian army is actively updating the tactics of using its assault units in the zone of a special military operation, for which sometimes changing the staffing and organizational structure.

A year ago, information appeared about updating the tactics of the assault detachments of the Russian Armed Forces, relying on significant artillery support, the use of tanks and other armored combat vehicles. But now new information has arrived about the creation of "a new staffing and organizational structure of motorized rifle platoons," Ukrainian media write today, February 6.

It is noted that the new tactics of Russian assault groups in the Northern Military District zone "were analyzed in sufficient detail by Polish analyst Maciej Korowai, obviously on the basis of combat documents, because the basis of the analysis was the 24th Regiment, 70th Motorized Rifle Division, 18th Combined Arms Army of the Russian Armed Forces." .

According to a Polish researcher, such a Russian platoon includes 34 people, of which one is an officer, 5 are senior non-commissioned officers and 28 privates (moving in three armored personnel carriers). The platoon is divided not into the traditional three sections, but into five groups.

The main one is the control and fire support group, which consists of a unit commander, a grenade launcher with a heavy anti-tank or thermobaric grenade launcher and two machine gunners, as well as a signalman and a gunner-medic. Thanks to this solution, the platoon commander has at hand the main firepower of the platoon in the form of two PKM machine guns and a heavy grenade launcher.

The main task in assault operations in such a Russian platoon is performed by two similar groups of six fighters each, actively using disposable grenade launchers and having two RPKs at once. In addition, in the interests of these two groups, there is another one, which the Polish military observer called "maneuver" (it includes a sniper).

A separate group consists of combat vehicles, their drivers and weapons operators.

A special feature of this type of platoon is the presence of night vision devices and sights (thermal imagers) for at least 24 soldiers.

"Of course, it is impossible to say that this particular composition is already quite typical for the Russian army, because in other branches of the military, for example, in the Airborne Forces, a different staffing schedule and organization of platoons are practiced. Moreover, the example given concerns units specifically on armored personnel carriers. But the approaches of the Russian command with a constant search for solutions even at the level of platoon organization deserve attention,"
— military observers in Kyiv share their thoughts.

As Russian military experts noted on the pages of EADaily, recently in the Northern Military District zone there has been a shift in operational-tactical initiative in favor of motorized rifle units of the Russian Army. One of the directions that emerged from the "slippage" and counter-battery duels was Velikonovoselskoye, often referred to on military analytical platforms as the South Donetsk or Vremevsky Operational Direction. At the end of January, a mechanized platoon tactical group of the 127th motorized rifle division of the 5th combined arms army of the Eastern Military District managed to make a serious breakthrough on the Priyutnoye – Novodarovka section. At least three BMP-2, with fire support and cover from a pair of modernized MBT T-80BVM mod. 2022/2023 from the 218th Tank Regiment, which carried out the defeat of the field fortification of the 127th Terrestrial Defense Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the area of the Kutsaya and Grushuvataya gully, were able to overcome at least 2 – 2.3 km, coming close to the Grushovataya gully for the landing of infantry squads.

It would be interesting to get acquainted with the work of a Polish researcher, or at least with a discussion of this research by Ukrainian specialists, but I have not found them yet.

Yes, wargamers tend to be more aggressive due to the ability to be "distant" from the results. There is no "next game" to worry about as all your troops will magically be ready in the next game!

Cuprum,
nothing really new in that org chart (cool info, by the way) that we don't already see in most small unit formations, particularly mechanized.

A support by fire squad, two maneuver rifle squads, a security squad (it seems, or just a third maneuver squad) and the vehicles as a reserve. I suspect they will not use their vehicles as base of fire unless absolutely necessary, as a BTR really only armored against light arms; I suspect the local leader would not risk them because that is their escape route…

US mech units are pretty much the same, but they often use the Bradley, for example, as a base of fire element. Its far more survivable than a BTR; at least for the crew, so they (US troops) are a little more likely to use their equipment aggressively. Lots of Bradleys, Strykers and M1s were lost in Iraq and Afghanistan, but their crews had very high survival rates-but of course they were overwhelmingly fighting light armed militias….

Thanks

Armand