"Russian logistics in Ukraine" Topic

Why Russia has poor logistics, by Trent Telenko, July 6.

The sound of russian ammo blowing up in Donetsk. What does this mean for russian logistics?, Thomas C. Theiner, July 6.

A 2019 Russia exercise included unloading ammo from a train at 00.33.
Images from this exercise have illustrated twitter posts of ammo being entrained in Belarus for shipment to Russia.

Druzhina
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I had read those threads, some interesting food for thought. For some reason, I feel like the tipping point in this conflict won't be an obvious, slow and gradual process but more sudden and pronounced collapse. The logistics and morale of the Russian army may fail at the same time. Just my opinion.

I've said it before & elsewhere, but I think what is going to happen is that Ukraine will continue to grind out the Russian Army over time until there is a general collapse, & then you'll see Ukraine making large territorial gains.

Damon.

The Russians will fight a war of attrition until they or the Ukraine forces can no longer wage war. It will be a race to see which one will collapse first.

Regardless, Putin will probably never pay for his war crime.

Manual loading of ammo into a van

While 🇷🇺 claims to be storing grain/fertilizer in all of these exploding warehouses, turns out the truth is easy to to find 🤷‍♂️

In Nova Kakhovka, pre-blast, you can see 1.) ammo poorly stacked on its side 2.) no mech logistics to distro ammo (forklifts) 3.) no protection for ammo.

from cjdrew94

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Logistics Collapse, by Nadin Brzezinski, 18 July 22.

"According to our sources in the army, difficulties have already begun with barrels for self-propelled guns, howitzers and heavy guns."
This being a logistics problem was mentioned by Perun.

"There is a lot of equipment at the storage bases, but it is old and, as I understand it, not in the best condition. What comes to us, we are already reassembling here. Out of three or four tanks, one is obtained in a complete set. Special trouble with sights and communications. After depreservation, all this must be checked and installed, and we are sent cars that simply do not have enough components."

and more on the problems Russia has caused by HIMARS.

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Here are a couple of analysis of Russian logistics that I posted here TMP link
Pre-war analysis of Russian army logistics and number of trucks link
Later analysis of Russian logistics in May link

The Russians could use more commercial vans (as have been seen) but that would need even more drivers and, without deploying conscripts, they do not have the manpower.

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Ukrainian forces hit the E97 Antonivsʹkyy Bridge over the Dnipro near Kherson, OSINTtechnical, July 20, 2022.

Destroying bridges with missiles is not easy.

Could Ukraine destroy the longest bridge in Europe – Russia's link to Crimea?, ChrisO, May 28, 2022.

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Current satellite imagery of the Antonovsky bridge in Kherson (not passable by military vehicles)
CJ, July 20 22.

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At 4 in the morning there was again a hit on the Antonovsky bridge in Kherson, now the Russians do not let anyone pass over the bridge, the bridge was blocked.

More videos of the damage to the bridge
Special Kherson Cat, July 20 22.

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video after a strike on the bridge across the Ingulets River near Kherson. Apparently HIMARS [GMLRS] missiles were used.
A 2nd video

Special Kherson Cat, July 23, 2022.

The bridge is on the road from Kherson, north of the Dnipro, to Nova Kakhovka.

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Urkraine struck at the little bridge over the ship canal just south of the Nova Khakova dam, but missed the arch [where the concrete truck is] by a few meters.

The spot on Google street view

photos, Special Kherson Cat, July 24, 2022.

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The rail line at Novobohdanivka (map), north of Melitopol, was lightly damaged. photos, Special Kherson Cat, July 24, 2022.

Novobohdanivka is on a North-South line, with a line branching west to its south and a line branching east to it north, so a critical point.

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video showing some of the details of the little bridge over the ship canal just south of the Nova Khakova dam, above.
Paul Jawin, Jul 31, 2022

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State-owned Russian TV Russia-1 released video of a ferry crossing next to Antonovsky Bridge, Kherson Oblast.
Militarylandnet, Aug 1, 2022.

Carrying mostly civilian traffic (at least in daylight).

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Russian engineer equipment on the Antonovsky bridge in Kherson.
Special Kherson Cat, July 31, 2022.

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how much rail damage is required to derail a train?
Trent Telenko, Aug 12, 2022.

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Good intel !

Ukraine 1st attacked the canal bridge next to the Nova Kakhovka dam (1) damaging the road bridge and ripping the rail bridge's rails apart,

then the curved road section at (2).

Red: Those look like severed PT cables in the girder itself. Very, very bad. Blue: It looks to me like the girder was bolted to the vertical "H" pile (weird) not anymore. Very, very bad. Green: Eroded concrete under the girder seat. If it exists under the damaged girder very bad.
So the girder‘s job is to hold the deck up. If that girder is not sitting on the pier, then the deck is carrying the weight of the girder rather than vice versa. On a 1 to 10 on the "Danger Will Robinson Scale" that's an 11.
Timothy Hurley

The Russians have placed radar reflectors on the road which say "target here". The idea with reflectors is to put them somewhere away from the target to attract ARM missiles to there.

Replies to Special Kherson Cat, Aug 14, 2022.

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Interesting photos !

High contrast image of "Antonovsky bridge in Kherson across the Dnieper River after the Ukrainian attack. About 10 trucks loaded with ammunition were driving across the bridge. It's probably the detonation of one of them. Locals write about the collapse of the bridge span."
Paul Jawin, Aug 22, 2022.

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The pontoon bridge next to the Antonovsky bridge is getting longer.

COUPSURE, Aug 26, 2022.

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Big long targets, the Russians should have a lot ADA, CB equipment, etc., etc.

larger image
Major movement of Russian equipment identified in 25 August 2022 imagery near Kherson crossing the Dnipro river. About 100 military vehicles seen moving in imagery, mostly northwards toward Kherson.

Detail images of each location.
Tim Ehrhart, 29 Aug 2022.

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There are already reports on Telegram that the bridge/pontoons are being hit. Plus the freshly restocked ammunition dumps.

Say what you will but the artillery hasnt run out of ammunition yet.

I don't think anyone is saying Russia will run out.
This is limiting and depriving them in one sector.
There's another Russian army corp nearly formed in Crimea.

Bridges over the Inhulets River on the road between Kherson and Nova Khakovka

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Images from 29 August show a new, big hole. The pontoon bridge has also been in place for recent imagery, suggesting that it might be staying there or at least is needed more often.
Tim Ehrhart, Aug 31, 2022.

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large image

"The bridge of the Nova Kakhovka dam has collapsed due to numerous Ukrainian strikes. The railway bridge did not collapse but is severely damaged."
Benjamin Pittet, Sep 4, 2022.

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Super accurate shooting.

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The rail bridge over the canal lock at Nova Kakhovka dam in Kherson appears to have also collapsed.
Brady Africk, Sep 7, 2022.

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"Russian Forces coming under attack on a pontoon [ferry] crossing [embarkation site] over Dnipro river." Geolocated at 46.780024, 33.330674 = south of Kozatske, just downstream from the Nova Khakhovka Dam.

Video, GeoConfirmed, Sep 8, 2022.

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Tim Ehrhart, Sep 3, 2022.

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Video of Russians unloading 45 year old DPRK 122mm Grad rockets with crystalized explosives & propellent in a rail carriage by pulling over a stack with a rope.
Trent Telenko, Sep 14, 2022.

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Looks like smoking accidents ready to happen.

Those bridges were nothing but target … as the Russians did not have the assets to properly protect them and the know how to do it.

Why are russian propagandists and the Kremlin so afraid of ATACMS missiles… is it a fear of striking deep into russia? is it a fear of striking symbolic targets?

No, it's all about logistics. A thread by Thomas C. Theiner, 21 Sept 2022.

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The Russians attempting to fill the gap in the lock at NovaKakhovka Dam to maintain a functioning bridge.
Grandpatomato, Sep 21 2022.

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Video "According to Russian-appointed head of Crimea, waiting at the ferry crossing in Crimea takes about 3-4 days. And there are about 900 trucks in line at the moment."
Special Kherson Cat, Oct 13, 2022.

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Today, I read an article in a Finnish newspaper (Helsingin Sanomat) by two journalists who had been the first ones to be allowed to visit a Ukrainian depot of captured armoured vehicles somewhere in the Kharkov region.

Some interesting points from the article regarding logistics and maintenance:
- many of the captured vehicles that had ended up in this depot were relatively new (made late in the previous decade)
- Ukrainians considered that the captured vehicles had been poorly maintained by the previous owners
- despite of that, 50 % of the captured vehicles could be taken back into use after basic maintenance, 40 % needed actual repairs, and 10 % were too badly damaged to be repairable

Poor vehicle maintenance was a significant issue for Russian logistics early in the war (along with fuel supply), and based on this article the issue seems to still exist half a year later. Granted, it may be difficult to improve maintenance if you held close to the front line and strapped for personnel. It may be more difficult to quantify than many other logistics issues, such as the tons of ammunition shipped per day along such and such route, but nevertheless it is important in keeping the vehicles actually moving in the long term.

(As an interesting point, the Ukrainian military first inspected the captured vehicles for booby traps before proceeding with their evalution – apparently some Russians actually had plans what to do if they had to abandon a vehicle.)

One problem with front-line Russian maintenance is that the tools have sometimes been stolen prior to AFV being issued.

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It can certainly get a bit challenging to properly maintain a vehicle if no appropriate maintenance tools are provided…

Then again, perhaps it should just be seen as part of the grand imperial tradition – after all, rampant corruption and embezzlement tended to be a structural feature of the Imperial Russian military already back in the 19th century.

We used to call it "catering to the Iron Monster" … If you lack tools, parts, trained crews, etc., you will find most of you forces' AFVs, rolling stock, etc. will be large paperweights or targets.

Russian invaders unloading military equipment in the village of Sokolohirne, Henichesk, Kherson Oblast.
video, Giorgi Revishvili, Oct 15, 2022.

map
They are unloading outside HIMARS range and trucking the rest of the way. Note the old-fashioned wagons and lack of palettes and forklifts.

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Old School … they may have little left but wagons for resupply …

The wagons are old-fashioned, but they are standard Russian wagons. I wouldn't be surprised if new wagons are made to the same design.

Are you implying they will soon regress to horse-drawn?

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My understanding is that Russian military has a rather limited number of horses (like most militaries these days), so switching over to horse-drawn wagons is not an option. It takes a lot of horses to maintain a unit of any size in the field.

Are you implying they will soon regress to horse-drawn?

As Griefbringer noted, where are going to get the horses needed ? IMO … they can't/won't …

Russian railway is on the verge of collapse

The threat of a collapse in freight traffic is growing at Russian Railways due to a shortage of bearings for heavy-duty wagons, reports Railway Supply citing sprotyv.info. The so-called innovative wagons, which can carry 8 tons more than conventional ones, were left without spare parts after sanctions hit Russia over the invasion of Ukraine and foreign manufacturers began to leave the Russian market.

By the end of August, about 10,000 freight cars were taken out of service due to the lack of bearings and the impossibility of repair. In total, more than 200,000 wagons are at risk, estimates the National Transport Company (NTC), one of the largest operators of innovative wagons.

The main manufacturers of cassette bearings for them were the Swedish SKF, as well as Timken and Amsted Rail from the USA. All three companies left Russia after the start of the war. Components were brought from abroad, and only the final assembly was carried out at Russian enterprises. Now there is nothing to assemble them from and nothing to replace imports with. They need sealants and lubricants, which are produced neither in Russia nor the CIS.

Until the end of the year, the shortage of bearings will be about 100,000 units, and this is provided that Russian manufacturers supply 95,000 units. But whether import substitution is possible in principle remains unclear. And while the management of Russian Railways is looking for new suppliers, several thousand cars, the scheduled repair of which is impossible due to the lack of cassette bearings, are already being dismantled for spare parts.

Railway Supply, 02.09.2022.

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Replies to Niels O's tweet of this, Oct 18, 2022.

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A thread by Trent Telenko about this, Oct 18 2022.

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Seems everything Russians do turns to 💩 …

I have to admit that I had never paid much attention to railroad wagon bearings, but apparently they are a small but important but of a logistics infrastructure. Any idea what might be their lifetime, i.e. after how many thousand kilometers should they be changed?

Apparently, the Russian powers that boasted that "they are all prepared for sanctions" had not paid too much attention to the domestic bearing manufacturing capabilities, either.

To answer Griefbringer's question about bearing life. There is no specific number of Kilometers or miles that railroad bearings will last. How long they will last depends on how heavy the loads are, curvature of the tracks, and other factors. Railroads in the United States have detectors placed along their rail lines to detect bearings that are starting to fail so that those freight cars can be pulled from service and repaired. The link below is to a document that covers the mathematics involved in determining bearing life. Pages 118 to 122 have tables of bearing reliability based on distance and season of the year. Page 141 is a table of the possible life in years for the bogie (truck for US railroads) which can be 10 to 30 years.

PDF link

Railroads can and do transport large bulk items e.g. minerals, CONEX containers, military vehicles, etc., etc. To move our AFVs & rolling stock we drove to a nearby railhead, loaded them up on railcars then were transported to a distant location. The troops i.e. in the ROK rode in passenger cars at times. But in the USA/USA to Europe we were flown.

Railroads today are still critical for moment of military assets. Even went back to the ACW. If you don't have the railcars or rail lines to move your military, you are at a disadvantage obviously.
E.g. In WWII rail lines and trains were targeted frequently.

williamb, thanks for providing the link. I may try to look at it a bit later. However, it sounds like Russian railways will not be running totally out of bearings in immediate feature, though sounds like there will be a slow deteriation of the transport capacity.

Russian military is particularly dependent on train transport, and in the present environment the government is probably not willing to cut on the military use – and cutting the amount of civilian transport across the country will not help with the economic challenges.

Murphy's Law: Ukraine Kills Russian Army Reforms

link

Armand