"Ukraine War" Topic
186 Posts
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| shadoe01 | 25 Feb 2022 2:28 p.m. PST |
@Tortorella – I missed that they were wargamers and include Jim Dunnigan. He's opinion is high value in my books. Although he may not have contributed to the article. Still it seems to provide a decent report on the current situation. |
 Legion 4  | 25 Feb 2022 5:01 p.m. PST |
One thing I'm curious about is MOUT ops in Ukraine. I just finished reading a RAND report of Grozny and from that urban ops were something to be avoided (1st time in) and then they tried some training but not much (2nd time). It was stated that they took all the WWII lessons and ignored them from 1960 onward. Well I know in the US Army, '79-'90, we trained for MOUT, even though we would generally by pass heavy urban areas. If possible … We were a mobile combined arms force of maneuver & fire. Based on WWII, not to get bogged down in MOUT. But we still trained for it. Plus as officers we studied Stalingrad, Manilla, Jerusalem, etc. Though I was not there, however, something I saw occur in Iraq and A'stan. We generally tried to avoid CD. Causing us not to use our firepower and in turn increasing our losses. In WWII CD seemed not to be a big concern. And yes, we all know about the Hearts & Minds concept, etc. But we still have to wage a war to win it, IIRC … As far as MOUT in Ukraine, we will have to see. However, I see this possibly will play out like Hungary in '56, etc. The remaining military and "partisans" using IEDs, AT weapons, Molotov Cocktails, etc., ambushing, everything Russian that comes up the streets of their towns & cities. However, under Putin, will the Russians use all their firepower to level many structures, villages, small towns, etc. ? As it was seen that they seem to not be using more of their firepower in their initial attacks in the Ukraine. E.g. Airstrikes, Missiles, FA, etc. The initial heavy use of firepower was a Russian standard tactic. They cared little about CD. And yes the rubble could be used to still as cover to ambush Russian Forces. However, the defenders in the urban environment will take losses as they hide in the structures as well. Before they are "rubbled" … |
| gunnerphil | 25 Feb 2022 11:35 p.m. PST |
The Russian paratrooper saying he thought he was on a training mission. I have to ask, do Russian troop go on training mission loaded with live ammunition? |
| ROUWetPatchBehindTheSofa | 26 Feb 2022 1:55 a.m. PST |
Just to note Grozny was about 400,000 pre the Chechen conflict Kyiv is 3 million. Guardian newspaper had a shot of some trashed Grad MLRS systems (it was in their live feed somewhere). Not totally a unit you'd expect to see caught in close combat. If the Ukrainian numbers are anywhere near accurate they are trashing a heck of a lot of Russian vehicles. The Russian paratrooper saying he thought he was on a training mission. I have to ask, do Russian troop go on training mission loaded with live ammunition? Good point, I suppose they could have been told to say that if captured! A quick look over the UK headlines gave up a couple interesting nuggets. Apparently Kazakhstan has refused to lend Russia troops. The UK MoD are basically saying the entire Russian operation is behind schedule. Another thousand plus people were arrested in Russia for protesting against the war and apparently a number of public figures are, unusually, voicing descent. |
| repaint | 26 Feb 2022 3:02 a.m. PST |
The Russian paratrooper saying he thought he was on a training mission. I have to ask, do Russian troop go on training mission loaded with live ammunition? We always did. I don't ever remember seeing a blank round. Maybe training grenades to initially show us how not to blow up ourselves the first time around. |
| ROUWetPatchBehindTheSofa | 26 Feb 2022 3:58 a.m. PST |
link If true, embarrassing more than damaging I suspect, but having to change passwords and phone numbers in the middle of a crisis can't be a good thing. Also that many emails will probably throw up some interesting things. I'm sure journalists and intelligence agencies will be rummaging through it. link Interesting, didn't realise the sanctions extended beyond the financial so much. I wonder if this crosses Mr Putin's interference red-line? |
| Griefbringer | 26 Feb 2022 5:35 a.m. PST |
As far as MOUT in Ukraine, we will have to see. However, I see this possibly will play out like Hungary in '56, etc. The remaining military and "partisans" using IEDs, AT weapons, Molotov Cocktails, etc., ambushing, everything Russian that comes up the streets of their towns & cities. In the close confines of a city, the Russian invaders will be less able to utilise their advantages in ground mobility, heavy firepower and airpower than in more open parts of the country. By committing into urban operations, they may lose the initiative they may be able to enjoy in deeper operations in more open areas. Large urban areas are difficult to control, so committed local infantry units with a knowledge of the area may be able to sneak around and launch surprise attacks. It could get very nasty for invaders and their morale – but also unfortunately also for any civilians that have not been able to get out of the way. Guardian newspaper had a shot of some trashed Grad MLRS systems (it was in their live feed somewhere). Not totally a unit you'd expect to see caught in close combat. If the Ukrainian numbers are anywhere near accurate they are trashing a heck of a lot of Russian vehicles. I have also seen pictures showing what has been claimed as remains of destroyed Russian field artillery column. Didn't bother to investigate the authenticity of the claim, but these issues raise a good point. Apparently, currently Ukraine is in a period known as "rasputitsa", when the snow has melted and the ground becomes soft and muddy. And this being the famously fertile Ukrainian soil, I presume it can get really muddy. So until the ground has dried up later in the spring, wheeled vehicles (essential for logistics) are stuck to the roads, making them vulnerable to attacks by infantry units that manage to sneak up and take up ambush positions – securing the surroundings of the roads would tie up lots of troops when advancing deep into the country. Tracked vehicles might be less restricted by the terrain, but won't be able to fight for long without heavy logistics support. Air mobility would be another form of seizing initiative with deep operations, but this relies on being able to reinforce the chosen location quickly with further air transported troops or by ground forces linking up. If the defenders manage to react quickly enough and bring up ground forces with AA support, the initial attack can become pinned down and air supply difficult. Not sure how strong the Ukrainian AA defences are overall, but they seem to be able to bring down helicopters, fighters and transport aircraft every now and then. Also, I spotted in the news a mention that Netherlands will be sending in a bunch of Stinger AA missiles (shoulder-launched) – some folks have suggested that this might be a bit of a payback for the civilian flight that was shot down over eastern Ukraine back in the last decade. |
| SBminisguy | 26 Feb 2022 7:13 a.m. PST |
Someone help me out here -- the Biden folks want take US Border Patrol agents from the US' open, porous Southern border across which millions of illegal aliens and billions in illicit drugs and weapons are flowing -- and ship 'em to Poland??? To help process refugees of the Admin's own creation through poor policy and weak actions, leaving the US border even *less* defended?? |
| 35thOVI | 26 Feb 2022 7:34 a.m. PST |
SB, read the same. Two sources this morning. FYI wouldn't these Ukrainians classify as political refugees in fear of persecution under our laws. Wouldn't they not have more right to come to our country for asylum, then those pouring over our borders from Mexico today? I would think they would make good citizens. They would also understand even better the advantages of a democracy, over the totalitarian rule of Russia. Why is not our current government and media clamoring for these people and throwing the gates open? Is it a fear of who they might vote for in elections? Is it some other even more heinous reason? I say bring them. Most seem to be hard working and probably fairly well educated. |
| Legion 4 | 26 Feb 2022 7:51 a.m. PST |
In the close confines of a city, the Russian invaders will be less able to utilise their advantages in ground mobility, heavy firepower and airpower than in more open parts of the country. By committing into urban operations, they may lose the initiative they may be able to enjoy in deeper operations in more open areas. Large urban areas are difficult to control, so committed local infantry units with a knowledge of the area may be able to sneak around and launch surprise attacks. It could get very nasty for invaders and their morale but also unfortunately also for any civilians that have not been able to get out of the way. Yes … e.g. Stalingrad … Agree with pretty much all of your post Griefbringer … 👍👍 We always did. I don't ever remember seeing a blank round. Vietnam ? The Russian paratrooper saying he thought he was on a training mission. I heard they asked for directions. And were captured and became EPWs. These are the vaunted Russian Paratroopers ?!?!?? the US' open, porous Southern border across which millions of illegal aliens and billions in illicit drugs and weapons are flowing -- and ship 'em to Poland??? I have not heard this … but based on the past 18 months … it wouldn't surprise me … I say bring them. Most seem to be hard working and probably fairly well educated. A number of Ukrainians & Russians have crossed our open South Border. Maybe we could trade some of the other illegal aliens for Ukrainians ? 😎🤩😆😁 |
| ROUWetPatchBehindTheSofa | 26 Feb 2022 8:11 a.m. PST |
Apparently, currently Ukraine is in a period known as "rasputitsa". Wasn't this one of the reasons for the WWII German war machine coming to a grinding halt invading the USSR? Not sure whether it has anything to do with the linked story… or if that was just common or garden mechanical failure? link |
| Legion 4 | 26 Feb 2022 8:26 a.m. PST |
Yes, but as I said before, this is not WWII. There is a better road net, etc. Better vehicle designs, etc. But this thaw may still affect some of the vehicles on both sides … From I post I made on another thread here wardog 20 Feb 2022 12:34 p.m. PST
legion4
would those roads not be mined, also have some nice ambush sites? also well surveyed for artillery ? Yes that is all possible/probable whether a road running thru a marsh or otherwise. Again, the Russians have a number of amphibious capable AFVs, etc. I posted photos of some on this link earlier. That being said, Russia has recon drones & aircraft + orbital assets. Plus probably SF already deployed/spies. So, they may see any mines being laid, ambushes being set up and even current Ukrainian positions FA or otherwise. But nothing is 100% … would those roads not be mined Yes of course, but the Ukraine has a number of open fields being the former "Breadbasket" of the USSR, etc. So, unless in a marsh, the Russians won't be road bound. In many cases roads may not be used at all. For the reasons you listed and others. E.g., likely avenues of approach, ingress, egress, cover/terrain masking, etc. However, many modern armies have a number of ways to clear mines & obstacles. Both the USA & Russia uses mine plows usually mounted on the front of MBTs. The plow just pushes the mines off to the sides creating a path. Also the MICLIC[Mine Clearing Line Charge] is used by not only the US & Russia but the Ukraine. They use many Russian vehicles/weapons. Basically, the MICLIC fires a rocket pulling a "hose" full of HE. Which flies across the minefield. Blows up detonating the mines and creating a path. Works clearing roads in MOUT too. The US used this effectively in Iraq, etc. link also have some nice ambush sites? In a marsh yes, or any closed terrain. E.g. MOUT, thick woods, jungles, etc. Dismounted troops are trained to do this. We were in the 101, 2ID, etc. Also an ambush can be by executed by well concealed MBTs, Self-Propelled AT, towed AT weapons, etc. Of course these would be longer range ambushes, than dismounted Infantry. Again air & orbital assets could find these ambushes. E.g. photos or Night Vision devices, etc. Or FA and/or CAS could be used to hit known and likely ambush, etc., locations. But again nothing is 100%. In any terrain a well-prepared ambush could be effective. Again for dismounted Infantry in closed or mixed terrain they could do a lot of damage. However, they better be ready to shoot & scoot once the ambush does its job. Withdrawal covered by FA smoke and HE. also well surveyed for artillery ? Yes, most armies' FA and/or mortars, once in position would rapidly do a map recon to ID a number of possible targets. Including based on their higher commander's guidance, i.e., from Bn, Bde, etc. Possible/likely pre-plotted indirect fire locations, e.g., avenues of approach, probable enemy locations, hill tops, bridges, wood lines, etc. As I said many Russian air/orbital assets, may already know the locations of many FA, etc., positions. These would be priority targets to be serviced as the attack commences. Many modern armies have "fire-finder radars/systems". That can rapidly fire counter-battery missions. As these systems track where the fire comes from. And in turn return fire on those FA positions. However, all Infantry, Tank crews, etc., train get out of the FA impact area ASAP. It a standard battle drill. Whether dismounted or mounted in AFVs, etc. Also note in many cases AFVs taking FA/Mortar fires will generally survive unless a direct hit. The fires may do some damage, especially if the TCs, etc. don't button-up. Dismounted just has to use their battle drills and get out of the incoming impact area. But again, nothing is 100%. Again, a Russian offensive will start with hacking/jamming enemy C3[command, control communications]. Then massive air strikes, missiles, tube FA, etc., on known or suspected enemy positions, including ambush sites, FA locations, etc. They may even do a rolling barrage as the MBTs, IFVs, etc., cross the LD/LC[Line of Departure/Line of Contact].
Paratroops and/or Air Assault Troops would be deployed capturing bridges, key & decisive terrain, etc. This type of attack/offensive maneuver has been described as "an un-stoppable avalanche of fire & steel." A true combined arms op with vast amounts of firepower. ***
However, after seeing how the Russian Military has performed after 3 days of war. I was wrong about the use of massive fire power, which was a standard for them. They are/will be mired in many MOUT ops. E.g. Stalingrad … |
| Tortorella | 26 Feb 2022 8:43 a.m. PST |
Legion, I saw a photo of a disabled tank in a ditch, abandoned, not much obvious damage. I wondered what kind of anti tank weapons work on todays armor? What could guerrilla forces do? |
| Tortorella | 26 Feb 2022 8:44 a.m. PST |
Or any other vets here who know this stuff! |
| Tortorella | 26 Feb 2022 8:46 a.m. PST |
Shadow, yes Dunnigan caught my eye, I have one of his books, the other guys are gamers as well. I thought it was pretty interesting to connect the hobby to real world conflict. |
| Griefbringer | 26 Feb 2022 9:59 a.m. PST |
Wasn't this one of the reasons for the WWII German war machine coming to a grinding halt invading the USSR? The German issue in 1941 invasion was the autumn rains starting in September turning ground into mud – as well as a lot of unpaved roads. The German offensives were usually not launched around spring thaw – with the exception of the attempted relief of Budapest in early 1945 (which went rather badly). I have never been to Ukraine, so don't know who long the ground will stay soft, but I would guess for most of March. Rainy weather would naturally slow down the drying. The invaders probably don't have time to wait until then, and instead need to keep pushing on. Senior Russian civil servant commented today to BBC (with his name published!) that supposedly the intent was to reach the goals within two weeks. It is not entirely clear what those goals are, but at the current rate I would not count on them being made by the schedule. The slower the invasion progresses, the more time the Ukrainians have to prepare their defenses in depth. And the more time there will be for weapons, especially anti-tank and anti-aircraft, to arrive from abroad (BTW. Germany just lifted their ban that prevented third countries from shipping weapons with German made components to Ukraine). And a prolonged conflict would likely become unpopular in Russia itself, once the people there actually start to understand what is being committed in the name of their country (though the news about it are heavily censored by the state). I wondered what kind of anti tank weapons work on todays armor? What could guerrilla forces do? Man portable rocket launchers and recoilless rifles with HEAT rounds can be a threat to modern armour at ranges up to 500 meters, especially against flank armour. Front armour gets tougher, and there is special reactive armour to help protect against HEAT (look at the blocky brick-shaped items visible on tank turrets in many pictures). For longer range firepower, there are anti-tank missiles though those can be a bit heavier to lug around. take US Border Patrol agents … and ship 'em to Poland??? To help process refugees European Union border security forces have a common program for leanding aid to each other in case of events like this, and can quickly provide temporary help to Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and Romania if needed (Moldova is not part of EU). US border agents, who would be less familiar with the local practices and languages, would probably be less useful. I would expect EU countries to be able to handle the refugee flood, at least in the short term, especially now that Poland and Hungary are committed to doing their share.
For another case of international assistance, Ukrainian government has requested the International Red Cross to assist in organising the return of the Russian casualties (which the Russian government denies exist) from Ukraine to the motherland. They currently seem to claim the presence of several thousand bodies in Ukraine, though this may be exaggeration or over-estimate.
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| Thresher01 | 26 Feb 2022 10:42 a.m. PST |
"Germany has blocked the transfer of NATO assets from other states to Ukraine". Germany seems to be panicking now, just announcing the authorization to transfer 1,000 anti-tank, and 500 Stinger missiles to Ukraine. It is unclear whether SWIFT will be suspended, but it should be over this naked aggression. Germany was apparently blocking it up until earlier today, but recent rumors seem to indicate that they now are no longer opposed to that, so we will see. ALL trade with Russia should be suspended by the West, and we should also threaten China with a similar total embargo if they stand with, and support Russia's naked aggression on a free and peaceful nation. The USA should provide Ukraine with A/T missiles, MANPADS, and small arms and ammunition to try to help stave off the Russians/Soviets. We spent more than $1 USD TRILLION to aid Afghanistan, so US aid to Ukraine has thus far been pathetic. The USA should provide tens of BILLIONS in aid to Ukraine and others in Eastern Europe in order to stave off the resurgent "Soviet Steamroller". If we don't, then other nations in Eastern Europe are sure to fall. Hopefully, Finland and Sweden will now apply for NATO membership, and have that be granted, but the leadership there seems to be pretty weak, so I doubt that will be approved. Poland seems to now be the new leader in NATO, given their strong military. No doubt, the German leadership will rue the day they gutted their military so drastically, after the end of the Cold War "peace dividend". I suspect those nations that were previous Soviet satellites/captives, will know the true cost of the Ukrainian people losing their conflict with Russia, and falling under the heel of the Soviet boot once again, and will side with them too, since otherwise they may be next. |
| 35thOVI | 26 Feb 2022 10:54 a.m. PST |
So am I the only one who wants to let Ukrainian refugees come to the US and become citizens, if they want to? Seems like more of a win:win for the US. |
| Griefbringer | 26 Feb 2022 11:19 a.m. PST |
we should also threaten China with a similar total embargo if they stand with, and support Russia's naked aggression Currently the Chinese leadership seems to be rather annoyed by this invasion, though they seem to be rather careful when it comes to wording their statements. The USA should provide Ukraine with A/T missiles, MANPADS, and small arms and ammunition to try to help stave off the Russians/Soviets. Anti-tank and AA-weapons seem to be a priority at the moment, especially models that the Ukrainians are already familiar with. That would help limit the Russian advantage in airpower and armoured forces. Not sure how high priority small arms are, since they have so far been able to issue a good number of Kalashnikov's to volunteers, though little other equipment. Provision of helmets, flak vests and camo uniforms would also help in making such units, once armed, more capable in prolonged combat. So am I the only one who wants to let Ukrainian refugees come to the US and become citizens, if they want to? Since I do not live in the US, it is not really up to me to comment on this. However, I can mention that there are numerous Ukrainians living and working in my country (some of them as seasonal workers during summer), and they generally have a good reputation as hard-working and well-educated people. That said, currently only women and children are allowed to leave Ukraine, and they are likely to prefer short-term asylum somewhere close by in Europe, hoping to return to their country soon to re-unite with the males of the family. AFAIK back in the late 19th and early 20th century, there was an influx of Ukrainian immigrants to northern America, and at least in parts of Canada there are some reminders of this – including even Ukrainian orthodox churches. |
| 35thOVI | 26 Feb 2022 12:01 p.m. PST |
Yes we have some. One is a well known actress. |
| 35thOVI | 26 Feb 2022 12:07 p.m. PST |
One thing the Russian are notorious for, is the inability to keep their units supplied. Especially the further away from Mother Russia they get. I assume that has not improved. Also heard they are forcing young Russians into the military and having them cut home ties now. Can that be verified? |
| Legion 4 | 26 Feb 2022 12:29 p.m. PST |
Legion, I saw a photo of a disabled tank in a ditch, abandoned, not much obvious damage. I wondered what kind of anti tank weapons work on todays armor? What could guerrilla forces do? Some of the man-packed AT Wpns, are the US Javelin, Russian RPGs & Saggar. The US TOW/ITOW can be man packed but is usually mounted on a vehicle, e.g. HMMWV, M2/M3 Bradley, Strykers, etc., etc. Older Russian Recoilless Rifles may be seen here too. Also IEDs e.g. like Molotov Cocktails, satchel charges, mines, etc. As far as that abandoned Tank you saw. Did you see both sides ? They may have had track damage ? The may have panicked, and abandoned it ? Ran out of fuel ? Blew an engine ?
I would expect EU countries to be able to handle the refugee flood, at least in the short term, especially now that Poland and Hungary are committed to doing their share. That makes more sense than sending any US LEOs …
there was an influx of Ukrainian immigrants to northern America, We have many ethnic Ukrainians where I live. Most have been born here. I have a number them as friends … |
| Thresher01 | 26 Feb 2022 2:24 p.m. PST |
One person living in Ukraine that was interviewed today said they were issued rifles, but had virtually no ammunition. Some have wooden rifles, or no weapons at all. Reminds me of Britain after Dunkirk, where the Home Guard trained and were equipped with brooms, pitchforks, and sticks. |
| EnemyAce | 26 Feb 2022 3:38 p.m. PST |
Everyone expected Ukraine to lie down, and now they aren't, there is panic on both sides. A strong move by NATO could end this quickly declare a No Fly Zone over Ukrainian (not Crimea) territory, and then enforce it. Then give Russia 24hrs to disengage and retreat, before attacking any ground forces left after that point. Keep all operations within Ukrainian territory. |
| Legion 4 | 26 Feb 2022 5:01 p.m. PST |
I think no matter what … Putin's going to try to do what he started out to. Unless his losses become untenable … Or someone/group in Russia stops him ? |
| ROUWetPatchBehindTheSofa | 27 Feb 2022 3:28 a.m. PST |
link
If this was deliberate then it would worry me and not because of the obvious – processed rad waste isn't much of a threat. But we are talking about a regime that has publicly and very obviously murdered dissidents and then gone on to try and gaslight the entire world that they didn't do it  ! Would Putin consider scaling that up to an entire city? Leaking rad waste sites an attempt to provide a veneer of very implausible deniability. |
| Griefbringer | 27 Feb 2022 4:06 a.m. PST |
One thing the Russian are notorious for, is the inability to keep their units supplied. Especially the further away from Mother Russia they get. I assume that has not improved. Currently, the forces have not even advanced particularly far across the border – though some have moved through Byelorussia, which would extend the logistics tail. Part of the problem may have been that in an effort to gain advantages of surprise, the high leadership kept the decision to attack secret for as long as possible, leaving the units in field limited time to prepare. For example, the units in Byelorussia were originally there for military exercises, and may not have brought along excess supplies for actual major military action. Byelorussian dictator Lukashenka claims that he had not been informed ahead that an invasion would be launched through his country – and while I am suspicious of anything he claims, this time he might actually be telling the truth. It seems that the plan has backfired, with unprepared units unable to fully exploit the advantages of surprise, which can only last for a limited time. The initial shock did not demoralise the Ukrainians, but rather has made them highly defiant – and the rest of Europe is also starting to recover from the shock and look for ways to assist them. Ukraine has also now announced that they will form an International Legion for foreign volunteers that want to join their military forces. It may take a while before such unit will be of any military benefit, but once volunteers start flowing in their mere presence in the country will hopefully provide an additional morale boost. On the other hand, the Russian military has started launching attacks on civilian infrastructure. And with news of invasion of Kharkov starting, they may find themselves stuck in a battle of attrition rather than mobility. Also heard they are forcing young Russians into the military and having them cut home ties now. Can that be verified? Russian (and Soviet) military has a reputation for poor treatment of conscripts going back at least to the 19th century (when peasants could be conscipted into service for 20 years, many never returning back home). In the more modern times, this has resulted in the formation of a union of soldier's mothers, which has tried to monitor and limit the abuse taking place at various levels. Currently, the Russian military seems to be denying any claims of casualties, and likely provides no information for the families of those serving in this conflict. Ukraine on the other hand has recently opened a hotline for the Russian families. Thus, the relatives of those soldiers who have fallen into Ukrainian hands (as captives or casualties) will be able to find out about it. Seems like the Ukrainians care more for those relatives than the Russian military and political leadership. |
| 35thOVI | 27 Feb 2022 4:15 a.m. PST |
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| 35thOVI | 27 Feb 2022 7:12 a.m. PST |
Putin has put his Nuclear weapons on highest alert. |
| Tortorella | 27 Feb 2022 7:31 a.m. PST |
Thanks Legion, I am starting to lose my impression of the Russians as invincible in this case. I know they will take Ukraine, but how bad will their loses be and how will they hold it. I especially wonder how long a force like this can stay in the field, before logistics and loses, the usual wear and tear, start to reduce their capabilities. Against motivated armed resistance fighters who look like they will not quit. |
| Legion 4 | 27 Feb 2022 8:18 a.m. PST |
I am starting to lose my impression of the Russians as invincible Yes, very much so. See my posts here … TMP link |
| Heedless Horseman | 27 Feb 2022 8:36 a.m. PST |
Nukes on highest alert? No kidding !… I would be very surprised if West was not already. Pretty sure anyone's SSBNs will be tracked and targeted… everything on a Hair Trigger. Putin has wrong footed everybody… we did not really believe that he would actually invade… so anything is possible. He is a real 'loose cannon' now.. he will not survive 'failure'. .. so EXTREMELY dangerous. This is much more deadly than Cuban Crisis. Nations are starting to wake up to that. Russians are NOT invincible… troops like any other… just pretty good. A lot will depend on 'Motivation'… and once they realise that they are aggressors not defenders… well. As for Ukrainian 'wooden guns'… famliarisation aid… let a nervous civvie get used to the 'feel' of an AK74… might 'Freak' with a real one. Others 'happily' preparing Molotovs… Ukrainians mean business. Am concerned about ammo supply.. I am not a gun buff. Does West have ammo useable in 'Russian' weapons? This really is down to the wire… and could very easily go past… watch the Baltic States… Brits are.
At least Germany is starting to realise that they are still in the Real World. |
| Griefbringer | 27 Feb 2022 9:09 a.m. PST |
Dropping a nuke – even a tactical one – on the Ukrainian soil might not be that bright idea, considering the possibility of the resulting radioactive fall-out being carried to Russian or Byelorussian territory… |
| 35thOVI | 27 Feb 2022 9:12 a.m. PST |
I keep hearing how well the Ukrainians are doing, and I hope they are. I hear how bad the Russians are doing, and I hope they are. But all, isn't this just day 5? I mean it took Germany 30 days to take Poland and that was looked at as a walk over. If things are still going after 30, I will be more convinced. I wish the best for the Ukrainians. But I am not ready to make a judgment yet. Hopefully someone will take Putin out in the meantime…… please. |
| Heedless Horseman | 27 Feb 2022 9:58 a.m. PST |
From internet… Russians are pinning best Ukraine Forces in East with push from Crimea to cut off. Watch for attack to cut Western supply line in NW. Kiev front very important…but could be 'attention magnet'… much Russian resources not yet committed.
Russians are pretty good at hiding 'intent'… and then hitting elsewhere… this is not WW2… with massive forces on a 'full on' offensive… or as with Coalition in Gulf Wars.
Think 'strategy' has already been planned out years ago. Just hope that Russians recognise just what they have been led into. |
| Legion 4 | 27 Feb 2022 10:44 a.m. PST |
Russians are NOT invincible… troops like any other… just pretty good. Yes and as we see they don't seem to even be pretty good at this point. But they have numbers and firepower regardless. Does West have ammo useable in 'Russian' weapons? Yes the West has ammo for AKs, etc. We supplied the Muj with the with AKs, RPKs, etc., and the ammo to fight the USSR. Did the same with the ANA & ANP later too to fight the Taliban, AQ, etc. This really is down to the wire… and could very easily go past… watch the Baltic States… Brits are. There are US and NATO troops in and heading to the Baltic States. They are part of NATO. An attack on them would Trigger Article 5. Also CIA says Putin is afraid of NATO. He inadvertently revitalized NATO. Something he was not planning on, I'd think. At least Germany is starting to realise that they are still in the Real World. Yes, and they need to get their military back into "fighting shape" … the Cold War is not over. And could go "Hot". Many NATO members need to get their forces up to standard too. Not only Germany. From internet… Russians are pinning best Ukraine Forces in East with push from Crimea to cut off. Watch for attack to cut Western supply line in NW. Kiev front very important…but could be 'attention magnet'… much Russian resources not yet committed. Yes, they could cut off the Ukrainian forces in the East who were there to defend against one of the likely avenues of approach in the Donbas region and later Kharkiv. The Russian push from Crimea is heading towards Kyiv. And could be used to cut off the Ukrainians in the Donbas as well. The Ukrainians may have to pull those forces out. For fear of getting cut off from supplies, support, etc. But that will give the Russians a lot of territory. That the Ukrainians can't take back. Kyiv may be "the Alamo" …
Dropping a nuke even a tactical one on the Ukrainian soil might not be that bright idea, considering the possibility of the resulting radioactive fall-out being carried to Russian or Byelorussian territory… Does Putin care? He and his cronies will be safe. Regardless he may just be saber rattling. His grand plan to make a quick strike and capture Ukraine will not happen. But now has turned into a slow slogging match. He is demonstrating more confusion, paranoia, etc. That may not be a good sign. Like a wounded trapped animal can be very dangerous. Hopefully some calmer minds in his admin with stop him. Before launching WMDs … The Russians look like they are going to encircle Kyiv. And if they don't surrender, the Russians with just open up with all their firepower including the deadly TOS-1. From and MSN report : The TOS-1, nicknamed the "Buratino" the Russian version of Pinocchio for its big nose, is one of the most feared weapons systems in Russia's conventional armoury, a multiple launch rocket system mounted on the chassis of a T-72 tank capable of firing thermobaric rockets which use oxygen from the surrounding air to generate a high-temperature explosion. Or even WMDs, now chemical weapons are being mentioned along with the rumor of tactical nuclear weapons. The longer this lasts logistics will be telling with the Russians. This is not their strong suit. Vehicle have been seen abandoned along the roads, as they ran out of fuel, etc., … However, the Ukrainians have to consider supply and combat loses in men and equipment as well. But … Can the Russians fight COIN in the Ukraine ? |
| ROUWetPatchBehindTheSofa | 27 Feb 2022 11:22 a.m. PST |
Some claims popping up in the internet newsfeeds, not substantiated, that Russian troops at staging areas are refusing to follow orders and also that Russian civil servants are resigning in numbers. |
| Griefbringer | 27 Feb 2022 11:59 a.m. PST |
I keep hearing how well the Ukrainians are doing, and I hope they are. I hear how bad the Russians are doing, and I hope they are. But all, isn't this just day 5? The invasion started early on Thursday morning (local time), so we are actually now on the evening of the 4th day, though it may feel like a lot more time has passed. Due to the time zone differences, it may be trickier for the Northern Americans to figure out when things are happening. Personally, I am on the same time zone with Ukraine, so don't have much of a problem. Does Putin care? He and his cronies will be safe. His bunker in Moscow might be safe, but the civilians living closer to the border would likely be rather unhappy from the fallout. And these regions were the ones that got hit by the Chernobyl fallout back in the 80's. Or even WMDs, now chemical weapons are being mentioned along with the rumor of tactical nuclear weapons. Use of chemical weapons would affect the international opinion rather badly, but would it even give any major tactical advantage in the kind of fighting that is going on currently? And if poorly coordinated, it could also hinder Russian troops themselves. Some claims popping up in the internet newsfeeds, not substantiated, that Russian troops at staging areas are refusing to follow orders If they do, then they are certainly brave men to take a stand against being used as pawns in this mad game of chess. However, I would take any such claims with a pinch of salt, as the military leadership probably wants to keep the troops in these areas heavily isolated from the rest of the world. Brave Russian civilians are also taking a stand against the war on the streets and plazas of many Russian towns and cities. These protests may be small compared to those abroad, as the Russians are worried about police brutality – according to one estimate, at least 5000 Russian civilians have been arrested in these protests since the beginning of the war. It takes courage to take a stand against invasion on the streets of Kiev equipped with a Kalashnikov and armband. But it also takes a courage to take a stand against the same invasion on the streets of Moscow equipped with just a piece of cardboard reading "No war". Many expatriate Russians have also participated in demonstrations taking place abroad, many of them stating that they are very ashamed of being Russians at the moment. |
| Dragon Gunner | 27 Feb 2022 12:11 p.m. PST |
"Or any other vets here who know this stuff!" Legion covers it well I will add a couple other thoughts… 1. The tank could have a penetrating hit that is really hard to see, maybe something the size of a fist. There might not be any gratifying Hollywood fire, mushroom cloud and turret flying off. It could be a crew kill on the inside and the vehicle was pushed off the road. 2. It had a fatal accident sir! When troops don't want to go to the field or participate in something they can undermine readiness by breaking, disabling or destroying equipment… |
| wardog | 27 Feb 2022 1:03 p.m. PST |
"When troops don't want to go to the field or participate in something they can undermine readiness by breaking, disabling or destroying equipment…" hadnt thought of that "
on logistics scaning tv channels saw a fuel truck getting hit with a Molotov cocktail going through a residential area
rear area attack on fuel trucks and ammo convoys (achilles heel based on above comments) something a civilian can do ,will force russians to divert troops for escorts (sf forces could blow bridges)
do we have any friendly civilians in belorussia to set up fake road traffic accidents long tailbacks burn trucks on roads blocking said roads ,even a herd of cattle on roads over here, can cause tailbacks ok small nuisance for russians ,but every minute delay counts .as they say a tank wont move without fuel a gun wont fire with out ammo |
| Legion 4 | 27 Feb 2022 3:42 p.m. PST |
Legion covers it well I will add a couple other thoughts… We went thru similar training … 😎 When troops don't want to go to the field or participate in something they can undermine readiness by breaking, disabling or destroying equipment… This certainly could be the case with Russia's conscript forces. I've heard a few similar stories like that from Vietnam with the large numbers of draftees in the US Army, etc., back then. Albeit the vast majority the US military did their duty and, in some cases, and then some. Based on the Russian Army's performance, seems many don't have the training or motivation, etc. on logistics scaning tv channels saw a fuel truck getting hit with a Molotov cocktail going through a residential area In urban terrain/MOUT enemy vehicles are easy targets if they don't have escorts. And even then, in the right situation and terrain they still could get hit. E.g., driving under an overpass or from a 2 or 3 story window(s). A Molotov, IED, etc., could take out passing vehicles. If possible, take out the first & last vehicle in the convoy. That may give you more time to do more damage, etc. To the rest of the convoy at least for a little while in many cases. rear area attack on fuel trucks and ammo convoys (achilles heel based on above comments) something a civilian can do ,will force russians to divert troops ,
Either with ad hoc obstacles. In Somalia they used burning tires, etc. You could block the road with a truck, booby trap it, cut/fallen trees making an Abatis en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abatis etc. for escorts (sf forces could blow bridges) They may not have the troops to give the convoy for escort. And any Infantrymen or CEs could blow up a bridge. Even as Grunts we were trained to use demo of all types. And the whole bridge does not have to go down. Only the nearside. So it will be easier to repair, etc. when you counterattack. *** Disclaimer : DON'T TRY THIS AT HOME! 😎🤕🤕🤕 |
| Legion 4 | 27 Feb 2022 4:07 p.m. PST |
His bunker in Moscow might be safe, but the civilians living closer to the border would likely be rather unhappy from the fallout. And these regions were the ones that got hit by the Chernobyl fallout back in the 80's. Yes … that is a given. He does not care about many others. Use of chemical weapons would affect the international opinion rather badly, but would it even give any major tactical advantage in the kind of fighting that is going on currently? And if poorly coordinated, it could also hinder Russian troops themselves. Again, he does not care, what the world thinks or who it effects. And troops should have and know how to use chemical protective gear. But based on the Russian's military performance, they may not have training and equipment. And the attack may be poorly coordinated as we see in many of their ops in Ukraine. Hitting their own troops or miss the target completely. etc. … And yes the initial use of chemical weapons would/could/should certainly give the attacker an advantage. Regardless of the cost … |
| Heedless Horseman | 27 Feb 2022 8:14 p.m. PST |
Chemical weapons would annihilate Ukraine armed militia in Kiev, etc.
Would Putin use them?
He will know that he is now seen as a Mad Dog… so might not care about opinion.
Use would cause retaliation. I do not believe that any nation would be stupid enough to destroy ALL of their Nuclear Weaponry arsenal. Some things will have 'gone' from inventory.
We just have to hope that scenario does not occur. |
| Griefbringer | 28 Feb 2022 12:51 p.m. PST |
There seems to be plenty of reports now of civilian women assembling to put together a whole load of Molotov Cocktails. I would not count too much on their effect in a modern conflict, but under right circumstances every little thing counts – they could for example be very handy for destroying abandoned vehicles before those can be recovered. That said, assembling the cocktails themselves can be a good morale rising activity – it is much better to do something concrete than just hunker in shelter and worry – and another example of the national spirit of defiance. |
| ROUWetPatchBehindTheSofa | 28 Feb 2022 1:04 p.m. PST |
Farmers can be a belligerent bunch…. It really wouldn't surprise me is this was real (There is some anecdotal stuff further down the article).
link
…..in pretty much any culture
link |
 Editor in Chief Bill   | 28 Feb 2022 2:26 p.m. PST |
Chemical weapons would annihilate Ukraine armed militia in Kiev, etc.
Would Putin use them? Reuters from Feb 16: Price said Russian officials and media had planted stories in the press that were "entirely untrue.""This (the stories being untrue) however has not stopped the Russians from advancing these false claims, to include reports of unmarked mass graves of civilians allegedly killed by Ukrainian armed forces, and statements that the United States or Ukraine are developing biological or chemical weapons… for use in the Russian-controlled territories," Price told reporters at a regular press briefing. link So if Putin had already claimed the Ukrainians have chemical weapons… |
| 35thOVI | 28 Feb 2022 2:45 p.m. PST |
Let's see the Russian government has successfully United almost everyone against them. Even Sweden and Switzerland have gotten involved. You have more countries clamoring to join NATO. Germany is regrowing their military. Things have not gotten far enough that people have turned against the Russian people, just a leader who may be missing some screws…………BUT…….if carnage gets out of hand, or worse……then people will start to turn on the Russian people. Take out the leader now and all this ends and things go back to normal. |
| Editor in Chief Bill | 28 Feb 2022 2:56 p.m. PST |
Take out the leader now… …and return ALL of Ukraine. |
| Legion 4 | 28 Feb 2022 3:25 p.m. PST |
Molotov Cocktails. I would not count too much on their effect in a modern conflict, but under right circumstances every little thing counts In MOUT they can be very effective. They still work on modern vehicles as well. they could for example be very handy for destroying abandoned vehicles before those can be recovered. If the vehicle is only out of fuel. They may want to recover it and use it against its former owners. But these maybe booby trapped by their former crew. However, that may be a skill the Russian crews don't have. Because of poor training, lack of motivation, etc. As we have seen in many places in the Ukraine. This is not the Army we trained to fight during the COLD WAR.
Take out the leader now…
…and return ALL of Ukraine. We could only hope … |
| 35thOVI | 28 Feb 2022 4:17 p.m. PST |
I was just thinking outside the box. Would it be possible for Ukrainians or their supporters outside of the Ukraine to sabotage vessels in ports delivering Russian crude, or blow pipelines carrying Russian crude or gas? Wondering if that is something we might be seeing soon. Thoughts? |
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