"How Would You Game A 21st Century MEXICAN CIVIL WAR?" Topic

WHAT IF

… as a result of a high level assassination plot (between the Cartels and some members of government), or after a messy election, or because of sudden widespread civil unrest, or whatever, Mexico erupted in a full civil war?

So, between the constant separatists in the South (Chiapas, etc), and then the Cartels particularly in the North and West, and other insurrections elsewhere, what sort of control would the government forces be able to exercise realistically and what sort of battles or clashes do you envision in that "perfect storm" scenario?

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QUESTIONS
1) So, what factions do you see developing?
2) And how long before other nations start sending troops or arms to support one or more factions?
3) And how long before the violent mess spreads elsewhere?
4) What rules?
5) What figures?
6) What terrain?
7) Anything else?

By the way, check out this simulation:
YouTube link

Dan
PS. This was my question about a Cuban Civil War, which is WAY more likely than a Mexican one:
TMP link

To be honest, I have no idea who put these next maps together. They are just crazy: :)

Really, I think it would break down four ways:

1) Southern Separatists

2) Cartels

3) UN Peacekeepers

4) USA

1a) Leftist guerrillas; In the southern mountain ranges.
1b) Cartel supported guerrillas; in northern mountain ranges.
1c) Some urban guerrillas in big cities, both cartel supported and goverment supported "militia" types.
1c) State "militia" troops. (USA supported in the north)
1d) Federal army troops.(USA supported)
2.-The very next day.
3.- Southern USA in a month or two. Central America maybe in a year.
4. Any modern/ultramodern skirmish rules.
5.- ????
6.- Modern slum type terrain for city fighting. Jungle for souther mountais, wooded for norther mountains, and a lot of desert plain terrain for northern states.

Mex10mm: "2.-The very next day."

Which countries, aside from the US, do you think would be providing weapons and other support to the factions?

For example, what sort of non-US weapons have been confiscated there so far, even now?

Dan

More materials to take into a consideration regarding organized crime: link

Apparently a number of countries are already selling weapons to factions in Mexico: link

In fact the Mexican government has been buying weapons from nations other than the U.S. for some time: link

Recently the Russians have gotten in on the act: link

And in the 1990s Deng Xiaoping's son-in-law was already shipping assault rifles and anti-aircraft weapons to Mexican cartels: link

Even the Germans have gotten in on the act: link

The Chinese had over 30,000 "citizens" living in Mexico City 10 years ago.

That's a couple Divs. worth right there !

But no matter what the Cartels will play a big part.

And if the USA thinks it has a refugee crisis at the southern border now … this would multiply it x 10 !

Many of the AK47 used by the "Narcos" are made in China, Hungary or Rumania; even if most of then are supplied via de USA.

Good point! If not direct then via the US*, though those are probably easier to track if they still have serial numbers.

Dan
PS. Perhaps through one of our Fast and Furious gang "empowerment" government programs. :)

While some standing army and police units will remain loyal, others will go to some of the various factions. The Mexican navy has a reputation for being professional and well trained; i would expect them to remain loyal.

Rebel makes some irregular types. Maybe QRF for the army. You need a Fritz helmet and an HK platform for most troops. The police have a wide variety of small arms. Some Cold War US troops would probably work, but I don't know how many M-16s are still in service in the Mexican army.

About 72 hours after the first rounds of larger-than-small-arms fire cross the US border, there will be a few new US territories.

Then there will be multiple expansions, probably ending about the time the US Army stops at the border with Guatemala and Belize.

Though note that if the USN and USAF have anything to say about it, Guatemala will be absorbed just for the coffee.

About 3-7 years after that (depends on where we are in the elections cycles), there may be applications to add new states to the Union.

@79thPA: "I don't know how many M-16s are still in service in the Mexican army."

Hmm. I have no idea.
Anyone here know if they are still widely used by Mexican troops?

@79thPA: "Rebel makes some irregular types."

And Mike has a 20% sale going on there right this minute, until May 13th!
TMP link

Dan

A US military border security zone pushed into northern Mexico….a deployment of an OAS peacekeeping/pacification force perhaps….maybe some covert action and drone strikes against cartel leaderships to help prop up the legal government of Mexico?
All of the experiences of Iraq and Afghanistan would come into play…….
Mexico has a variety of terrain, jungle, desert, urban and everything in between, quite a few figures about for cartel gunmen and militias, Mexican Army and police units look pretty 'standard' Western types, Fritz helmets & kit etc. The peacekeeping deployments would allow for more Russian/Chinese vehicles maybe…….an interesting 'what if' scenario!!

CC, you've really got me thinking about this. I have been tossing a round various "civil war" scenarios and I like this one because it has the opportunity to stay relatively low tech i.e., limited anti tank missiles and jets flying all over the board, few or no tanks, etc., which is what I am looking for. This can primarily be an infantry and light armor conflict. Now I need to find out who makes 15mm Panhards.

79thPA

And the terrain options are unbelievable too. Thick jungles*, desert, urban, scrub, mountains, haciendas, etc.

If you are doing the cartels, check out all the interesting pictures of their armored trucks and subs.

Dan
* Predator was filmed in Mexico

This "narco tank" used to be a dump truck. It belonged to a cartel boss in Tamaulipas, right across the Rio Grande from Brownsville TX.

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Dan
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I guess this is one of the guerrilla groups in the southern states of Guerrero and Oaxaca.

Dan

Regardless … Happy Cinco de Mayo ! TMP link