"Jerusalem As Israel’s Capital, Reaction From Neighbors Today" Topic

A) None
B) Some
C) All-out outrage and mayhem

Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't see everyone getting all 1967 or 1973 over this detail any longer … except maybe the Ikhwan (Hasan al-Banna's "Brethren", "al-Ikhwan al-Muslimeen"), Iran and, of course, the Palestinians.

I think that part of the world has other much more serious issues they should really be worrying over, but what do I know!

Dan

B.5?

I think that part of the world has other much more serious issues they should be worrying over

Yeah, you'd think so, wouldn't you?

…..because, after all, the Palestinians are unimportant
to establishing peace between the Israelis and Palestinians.

The Turks aren't happy. link

The Saudis and other gulf Arabs etc are probably too busy with the qataris and Yemenis

The Egyptians and Josdanians have also been complaining

Pan Marek: "…..because, after all, the Palestinians are unimportant
to establishing peace between the Israelis and Palestinians."

Lol. Easy there, Clamps. Who is saying that they are unimportant? Nobody has said that here.

Dan
PS. Wait a second. I remember you now! A couple of weeks ago you thought that because I was in Texas I couldn't possibly have an informed or valid opinion about Puerto Rico's teeny tiny but loud pro-Independence Movement. :)
TMP link

I think it's an unforced error. Nobody was demanding the move, not even the Israelis.
It might do nothing but stir up unneeded controversy.

I agree with Winston.

It is an unnecessary move but one that was supposed to happen before the end of JAN 2017. Regional governments and populations have had time to accept that this may happen.

Moreover, because there are so many things going on (wars in multiple countries, Kurds, Iran, Hezbollah, Houthis, Daesh, Al Qaeda, death of Saleh in Yemen, regime issues in Saudi, and the usual issues with poverty, unemployment, water among others) that the embassy move to Jerusalem could very well get lost in the mix.

Or, and this is the concern, this could be a trigger for shifting all of the anger/frustration/stress from the above items to the US and Western interests/facilities/people.

I currently live in a Middle Eastern country where the national security apparatus and local US country team seem to have assessed we will experience the former. Of course, that does not preclude some lone wolf from suddenly materializing.

While hope is not a valid course of action, it is the only one available. So we must hope that once the decision is announced the blow back is not too bad or lasts too long.

Wrongo winston.

In 1995, Congress passed the Jerusalem Embassy Act, requiring the movement of the American Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. The act said that Jerusalem should be undivided and be recognized as the capital of Israel. The legislation passed 93-5 in the Senate, and 374-37 in the House of Representatives. It was then signed into law by clinton and ignored. President Trump is simply enforcing the law.

Whoa, that's a landslide by any modern standards!

Dan

It's all a storm in a teacup – he's go to sign to keep funding anyway and after that the can will get kicked down the road.

Once again people getting upset because the current POTUS is following the law and doing what the people have asked for.

So, this is an Oh-No moment? Do you really think that this move will make the Palestinians and Muslim nations dislike Israel and the US more than they already do???? Muhahahahahaha! That's down right funny.

Myself? I like it!

Asked for? Doubt most of our people can find Jerusalem on the map much less care where the Embassy is.

Turkey is an ally. They've said it makes then like us less. Getting allies cheesed off doesn't make Israeli kids safer. Moving the Embassy to dar es salaam doesn't make them safer either.

I'm with skipper John on this one. When they already hate you what difference does it make what you do.

Some. Those closest to the action, Egypt, Jordan and, of course, the Palestinians in conjunction with Turkey and Iran which will include Hezbollah. I'm sure there's a segment of the Israelis that are also worried.

Maybe not every Moslem hates us?

Not everyone in the Middle East hates the US. But what this does is undermine US credibility as a negotiations facilitator, as well as undermine US credibility in a larger sense. It's basically taking sides & I see it as undermining the US efforts -- whether with our allies in the ME or in "rehabilitating" our image with the fence sitters. And for very little benefit.

Damon.

The difference it seems to make is that it seems to be making the few allies we do have there upset. I don't care how the people who hate us think, but I do care that Jordan, Egypt and Saudi Arabia feel this is a bad move. (Turkey is rapidly transitioning from a secular state to yet another fundamentalist state run by a despot using religion as an excuse to take total power- I honestly don't know if we could make them happy even if we didn't move the embassy).

This will only be a symbolic slap on the face of all Muslim nations in the Mideast. Is it worth the diplomatic and political costs such as cooperation in our fight against terrorism? Maybe not.

It is an acknowledgement of reality. Making Jerusalum the capital would surely be part of any peace deal. It isn't like the Clinton/Bush Obama approach ever produced much anyway.

JPK

It may be the "right thing to do", but it's still a dumb thing to do.
A law was passed that required it? Fine. Did it have a time set to do it?
I'm sure we can get around to doing it sometime before the next century.

Sticking your thumb in the eye of them there Ay-rabs is hardly a reason to go forward.
There's always a crisis over there. No need to stir the pot any more.
Saudi Arabia and Israel are almost de facto allies against Iran. Let's do something to really mess things up more than they already are.

Is Israel demanding we do it? Last I heard, Netanyahu was busy making speeches about other more pressing matters.

This is basically a big sandwich for the prospect of ever having a settlement between Israel and the Palestinians. Because of the US history in the region, it is plainly inconceivable that the US would NOT be involved in brokering the final peace settlement, and because the US has decided to become the only country (aside Israel) in the entire world to recognize Jerusalem as Israel's capital, that means that the top, number 1 demand in the Palestinian's list of demands is now officially off the table. Just think… the arbiter in a dispute starts a resolution attempt by siding with one side's number one claim against the other.

Yeah, I can't see Palestine ever going to the US to settle the dispute now or ever in the future, since the US has effectively made up its mind about the number 1 issue of Jerusalem. And because Palestine won't go to the US to broker the deal, I really can't see peace ever, ever happening. Of course, one might say that peace was already unlikely, but this has made it a certain thing.

Wargaming? Well, I am sure lots of wars in the future will trace themselves back to a single bad decisions made in 2017. It's like the Sykes-Picot Agreement of our time. So if you like wargaming that region… I guess, "net win" for you?

An old old saying I have heard:

If you are damned if you do
And damned if you don't
Do what you damn well please.

The Arabs were/are never going to be serious about peace. Maybe if they had made some moves on their part this would not have happened.

"The Arabs were/are never going to be serious about peace. Maybe if they had made some moves on their part this would not have happened."

Agreed. I don't think the Palestinians really want a 2 state solution. We should give Israel one of their peace term requests every so often. Maybe it will encourage the Arabs to seriously negotiate. It seems like there will never be a big comprehensive solution so just do it in little bits, starting with the side that seems to be more serious about wanting peace.

That's just pure igorance. Palestine is not just a single man walking around. It is a complex (to put it lightly) political environment with a history of many different political parties, just like Israel (or any other country) is a complex political environment and society with many different views on every issue. Boiling any country down to a single attitude just displays the rank stupidity and cluelessness of the commentator, nothing less.

Unfortunately, this move by the US will completely evaporate any confidence that the Palestinians had in the ruling Fatah party (for you , those are the "good guys" who have been pushing for a peaceful two state solution) to deliver on the number 1 issue of Jerusalem. Instead, it empowers the PLO, Hamas and Iran (for you , those are the "bad guys" who have advocated militant conflict with Israel). I don't expect Fatah, the Palestinian Authority or any "political solution" movements in Palestine to survive this stupid, ill-advised speech by the US leadership.

Mahmoud Abbas, President of Palestine, member of Fatah in 2015 said, "Every drop of blood spilled in Jerusulam is pure,every martyr will reach paradise, every injured person will be rewarded by God."

This guy wants a 2 state solution? Or perhaps he was just saying what his base wants to hear? If so what a peace loving base!

I agree that the Palestinians are not a monolithic political entity. The problem with a One State solution as it is currently defined is that the One State will inevitably either be Jewish or Democratic. It won't be both.

The US has tried for decades to resolve this conflict. The only real results are that the Israeli government currently extracts from the US more than 5 billion dollars in security and economic assistance and some Palestinians continue to use violence to achieve their goals.

Trying a new approach may be a good idea. It is a long shot but maybe moving the embassy will spark a conversation rather than violence.

Wow! Who know that TMP had such an abundance of Middle Eastern experts. Quick, somebody call foggy bottom and let them know.

Remeber Arabs respect the strong horse, and for the first time since the 1980's we have a strong horse.

PS: My Minor in college was Middle Eastern Studies.

Arabs respect a strong horse. But they also appreciate graciousness and respect. It can be a very combative place, but collaboration, partnership and agreement are equally important. Anything that seems like an insult or sleight, especially a deliberate one, is very poorly received.

PS: I lived and worked there for over 10 years.

How many of you stayed in a Holiday Inn last night?

Wargamers….love to pontificate on subjects they have no clue about because

1) I read a blog somewhere
2) I read a book
3) I took a class 30 years ago
4) I lived in a certain area x number of years or currently live there.
5) I know how to paint miniatures and move them around smartly on a table that somewhat resembles natural terrain.
6) A politician I like (or dislike)did something and I know more than they do because of point 1-5.

If ya'll are so damn smart and knowledgeable, get out from behind your computers and head over to the foreign office of your country or the State Department and explain to them how they have screwed it up and you know sooooo much more than they could ever think of knowing.

Or better yet, run for office.

Thanks guys, I needed a laugh tonight.

You don't have to be an author to know if a book's any good or not.

4 and 7) MA in Middle Eastern Security Affairs, 6 tours of duty (2 combat tours, 3 embassy tours, one tour as an adviser) in the Middle East, 3 assignments to US 4 star headquarters focused on intel and/or operations in the Middle East, and one final tour at the State Department as a Military Adviser where I did help write such a paper prior to my retirement.

Congress passed a law and presidents from both parties have successfully ignored it. There was no external pressure on the current president to not do that as well.

Let's see if any of our allies decide to move their embassies to Jerusalem. Japan has announced that it will not, and their foreign minister has stated his concerns about future peace negotiations.

In the UN, both Britain and France have called for a meeting of the Security Council to discuss the changing situation. Macron of France had already warned Trump against the change.

To the Muslim world, following the recent video tweets, this is a stick in their collective eye. People are going to die over this.

StoneMtnMinis wrote:

"In 1995, Congress passed the Jerusalem Embassy Act, requiring the movement of the American Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. The act said that Jerusalem should be undivided and be recognized as the capital of Israel. The legislation passed 93-5 in the Senate, and 374-37 in the House of Representatives. It was then signed into law by clinton and ignored. President Trump is simply enforcing the law."

Then why hasn't the president enforced the sanctions recently passed against Russia? That's a law, isn't it?

And why did EVERY president since 1995 decline to follow up on that law? Under what circumstances was that law passed? Why hasn't Congress tried to make sure that law was enforced? Perhaps Congress never really intended that the law be enacted at all.

If nothing else, creating such headlines would distract and redirect our attention from alleged collusion with those Russkies.

Agreed, it has more to do with the Robert Mueller investigation closing in the any congressional act which all parties have conveniently overlooked and no one has acted on.

Hmm. Last year he said he was going to do this if elected. He said so several times while campaigning.

Maybe the people who are now acting all shocked and surprised were more focused on something else back then. :)

Dan
PS. Then again, most people never expect campaign promises to come true.

Dan, he also said that he had a plan for peace in the Middle East. How will this move help to achieve that and not the opposite?

My qualifications to comment here? Five years working with an International NGO operating in the Occupied Territories and the Gaza Strip.

How will this move help to achieve that and not the opposite?

By showing the Palestinians that they need to be part of the process or get left out.

How long has the US left the embassy in Tel Aviv 'to help the peace process'? Has it?

So by denying them participation in a capital based on their religion, if the Palestinians show their anger, we can blame them, and make it all their fault? Got it! It's, dare I say it? Brilliant! Blame the victims.

I'm wondering. . . if we total up the number of Palestinians killed in this conflict, and compare them to the number of Israelis, which number will be greater?

I am not anti-Israel. I've read "Exodus," by Leon Uris, too. I am, however, a pragmatist. Zionism is not a benign force, and has elements of ethnic cleansing about it. I'm willing to bet that ethnic cleansing is being discussed all over the West Bank right now.

Its heart-breaking to find that the president's solution for peace is really just support for the worst elements of Israeli politics. I had thought America was better than that.

This will not bring peace. Quite the opposite. Tell me when this plan for "peace' works out. I won't be holding my breath.

I know that some here are stuck on the potential political implications of the topic.

However, my main interest was in divining if the such a relocation of the US embassy would be used by some as an excuse for violence/military action and, if so, by which specific parties and how widespread. Hence the post on the Ultramodern Warfare Discussion Board.

Dan

It will be interesting to see the Saudi reaction. My guess is they ultimately will endorse Trump's move. The real struggle in the Middle East is Iran vs the Sunni Muslims.

Saudi's have already reacted to the news. It wasn't favorable. I also don't expect more than that. They have their own problems.

I heard speculation that Tomorrow at the UN they are unlikely to vigorously oppose it. I think that they are more or less allied with Israel against Iran. The recent Saudi purges play into it to. But who knows in such a complex area.

Arabs and Israel grew closer during the previous administration. Fear of Iran trumps what goes on in Israel.
I am a fan since I think most considered us to be biased towards Israel anyway.

JLundberg: "Arabs and Israel grew closer during the previous administration"

Wow. I must have blinked and missed it. :)

Anyway that is not what my neighbors tell me though. They just moved to Texas from Israel. They're from an old Jewish family that predates the 20th century resettlement. They seem to think that the strain between the two ethnicities is simply getting worse and worse with each decade that passes.

I have no idea, of course. I can't even imagine what it would be like to live there (as a Jew, Muslim, Christian or anything else) and under that constant level of tension.

Dan

The Czech Republic and the Philippines have indicated they will move their embassies to Jerusalem. Other allies will soon be following.

Well jeepers, StoneMtn, if the Czech Republic and Rodrigo Deterte are on board, who needs allies like Japan, Britain, France, and Germany? Full speed ahead and dang the torpedoes!