"Georgia and Russia" Topic

Besides it seems that Hezbollah had no problems in taking them [Merkavas] out with AT- so IMHO a waste of money…

I wouldn't say "no trouble"… it wasn't like T-80s in Chechnya. No tank is invulnerable, of course.
-Kle.

"Besides it seems that Hezbollah had no problems in taking them [Merkavas] out with AT- so IMHO a waste of money…"

If you let your enemy entrench for 7 years.

Apparently, the Israeli's were upgrading/servicing the Georgian Su-25 ground support aircraft at the airbase near Tbilisi.

During the war, Russian aircraft took great pains to bomb the facility, in order to both eliminate the threat these jets posed, and to send the Israeli's a strong message of displeasure regarding their activities.

At the risk of entering the CA realm, it has been noted on Fox News that President Dmitry Medvedev is in the running for the replacement of Baghdad Bob.

B.B. told lies vociferously during his tenure with the Iraqi regime, much to the delight of Western observers. His over the top rhetoric, and historical untruths were
quite entertaining at the time. He is sorely missed, by at least some television viewers.

President Medvedev continues to state that Russian Forces are withdrawing from Georgia, despite the facts on the ground proving to the contrary.

"Besides it seems that Hezbollah had no problems in taking them [Merkavas] out with AT- so IMHO a waste of money…"

Well, seeing as they only managed to actually destroy 5 Merkavas, and lost around 500 men killed (An exchange rate of 100 men for one tank), the phrase "no problem" does not really come to mind.

Thinking about possiable what ifs for games here where does Turkey stand in all of this (apart from having reporters shot at). Are they friendly with Georgia? if the Russians had kept rolling on would they have tried to aid Georgia (or grab a slice for themselves)? What are the Turkish armed forces like? are they a match for the Russians? so far I can't seem to fiund much on the net about how Turkey feels about the situation, but I think it could make for some intresting what ifs?

Turkey's army is the largest in NATO, and I think they can handle themselves. Plenty of combat experience, albeit mostly COIN.

Attitudes towards Georgia I'm unsure of. But given the Georgians have a lousy record of human rights abuses towards the Ossetians who are, I believe, Muslims I doubt they're particularly warm.

But I doubt they want a resurgent Russia either.

But given the Georgians have a lousy record of human rights abuses towards the Ossetians who are, I believe, Muslims I doubt they're particularly warm.

Good point but I think Turkey are less swayed by religon than some of their neigbours for example I believe they have a long history of friendly relations with Israel.
Anyway trying to stir clear of CA type disscussions. F16s and leopard 2s in the Turkish Arsenal according to one site I've found anyone agree or disagree?

Apparently, the Turks are at least watching the naval maneuvers closely, based upon a news report I read while looking into the Tbilisi sinking.

Supposedly, they have mobilized ground units, and sent them towards Georgia, just in case the Russians decide to continue further with their military adventures.

Major US and European naval units are moving towards the region too, and there were reports today that US naval units might enter the Black Sea.

The Russians deny they are putting nuke warheads back on their Black Sea Fleet vessels.

Naval forces are also moving towards the Persian Gulf too, in case they need to blockade Iran. I imagine their latest test launch of a mock satellite is getting some peoples' attention.

For some reason, none of this seems to be reported much in the news here.

On the ground front in Georgia, apparently the parties that drafted the agreement forgot to include the no new Surface-to-Surface missiles clause into the document, so Russia is moving SS-21's into South Ossetia, to threaten Tbilisi, and other cities in the region.

"Today the majority of Ossetians, from both North and South Ossetia, follow Eastern Orthodoxy, although there is a sizable number of adherents to Islam."

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ossetians

"For some reason, none of this seems to be reported much in the news here."

And the Russians are making excuses – not leaving. Next will come arrests – I'm sorry – detentions. Pravda:

link

I expect that the Turks would've gotten pretty dang antsy if the Russians had rolled far enough south.

The Turkish military is large and experienced, though some of it's equipment is rather dated. Leopard 1 & 2, M-60 modernized to various degrees including some very elaborate Israeli versions, M-48 with M-60A3 style fire control.

They have an IFV very similar to the YPR-765, BTR-80, a lot of wheeled infantry vehicles/recce vehicles from the local Otokar company, with various numbers of wheels. Lots of M-113.

They have Huey, Blackhawk, Cougar, Mi-17 transport helos, and a few dozen Cobras for attack. I don't think the reported Apaches and mangusta variants have arrived yet.

They have some US MRLS, and a bunch of other types of MRL. M-109, M-110, M-107 SP. M-101, -114, -115 towed, plus some others.

Stinger and SA-18, they don't seem to have any heavy SAMs anymore.

TOW, Milan, Eryx, AT-5 Spandrel, possibly some AT-14 Spriggan (contract under way) for ATGMs.

Air Force is a couple hundred F-16s and about a hundred Phantoms (some with a nice upgrade package from Israel). It looks like there are still a few dozen F-5s, but the Starfighters are gone.

Navy has 14 type 209 subs, 8 Meko 200 and 8 OH Perry frigates, 2 Knox frigates, 6 D'Estienne d'Orves corvettes, amd a few dozen FAC and torpedo boats.

Turkey could present a great deal of difficulty for Russia; I'd bet on the Turks with anything like even numbers. Obviously, in a war between Russia and Turkey, the Russians would likely prevail eventually if they could bring their entire military to bear.
-Kle.

He'll never learn…

Actually, it appears more like kidnapping, from the descriptions I have read.

I imagine the Leo's, and US Tanks would be on a fairly even par with the T-72's.

Turkey's navy looks like it could at least give the Russians a decent challenge, if they decide to close the approaches to the Black Sea.

Ukraine has been threatening to keep the Russian navy from docking back in port, after their little Georgian adventure, but I imagine that is more rhetoric and bluster than reality, when push comes to shove. Their navy is very limited in numbers of modern vessels they can field.

I can't imagine Turkey, or Russia would want to get involved in a shooting war, but an accident, or rogue commander could easily start one, or at least a minor skirmish, or two.

Ukraine has been threatening to keep the Russian navy from docking back in port, after their little Georgian adventure, but I imagine that is more rhetoric and bluster than reality, when push comes to shove. Their navy is very limited in numbers of modern vessels they can field.

Well, I'm pretty sure it's bluster.

However, they certainly could keep the Black Sea Fleet out of Sevastapol if they really wanted to – all they'd have to do is mine the approaches.
-Kle.

I doubt the Russians would like that, and they do have minesweepers.

Most likely, if that happened, the Russians would declare it as an act of war, and send their ground forces on another road trip at their neighbor's expense.

Vladimir and Dmitry seem to have little sense of humor, and are even threatening to re-arm their Baltic Fleet vessels with nuclear warheads. Of course, we don't know if they really ever removed them, but the over the top rhetoric is certainly escalating. One of their generals has even threatened to nuke Poland for daring to agree to install ten defensive, air defense missiles on their soil, to protect against a ballistic missile attack by Iran.

We need to teach those nationalizing industry commies a good lesson.

NUKE EM TILL THEY GLOW!

(At the risk of entering the CA realm.) ;-)

Top Gun Ace –
The exact wording was that in case of war, the battery will be one of the primary targets. It is quite logical – just business, nothing personal.

I doubt the Russians would like that, and they do have minesweepers.

Yeah, but I wouldn't want to try to sweep the Sevastapol approaches under threat of shore fire. The Russian surface navy isn't terribly impressive anymore, and subs are of limited value in this operation – I don't think they have sub-launched minesweeping ROVs.

Most likely, if that happened, the Russians would declare it as an act of war, and send their ground forces on another road trip at their neighbor's expense.

Sure. Ukraine is a lot bigger and more heavily armed than Georgia, though. I'm sure Russia could take them, but it would be a much, much larger undertaking. It would take longer, and pose greater risk of international reaction.

The question (if Ukraine actually got stubborn) would be; is it really worth the cost/risk, or should we just go to Novorossiysk instead?

-Kle.

Kicking off a second adventure in Ukraine, without preparing the proper PR ground work would not fly (and ruin a perfectly good Georgian operation).

I think the Russians will take their naval toys to another port, and let the Ukrainians cool their heels for a while, then return again in 6 months and say let us in, with a hand on the oil taps.

Gas, not oil

Lets not get too far in our sci-fi dreams here. Ukraine is in no shape to start anything serious:
a) complete dependency on Russian gas/oil
b) quite weak military
c) almoust 50% of the polulation are Russian speakers- in case of any trouble Crimea and Donbass will likely to fall off in a hurry- leaving everything west of Kiev ( very rural) cold and dark.
Cracks seems to appear already in Ukrainian unity government with Ushchenko being totally pro Georgia, and pm Timoshenko being silent on the matter completely.
"Plucky" Poles just shot themselves in the foot with their little treaty- I see the taps are going dry there soon.
Interestingly Kazakhstan and Belarus are pro Russian.
On the more ominous front Russia just sent out notes on severing all contacts with NATO…

Georgia on my mind.

link

Hmmm, most of the captions say South Ossetia…
The burning apartment building in Gori is sure thoroughly represented in all clips- same pink exterior and delapitated
balconies.
Just to add here to all the errors by news networks. While reporting on civil protestors in Gori vs Russian occupation, BBC stated that they were shouting "Saakashvili" ( Georgian president). In reality they were shouting "Sakhartvelo" ( Old name of Georgia).

Any thing new on the five Hummer's captured by the Russians?

I was to understand they belonged to the Georgia (U.S.) National Guard that had just finished there training with the Georgia Army.

Nothing on the Hummers.

The latest I have read is that it will now take at least ten days for the Russian military to withdraw from Georgia.
Apparently, some forces are digging in around Poti.

It seems they are thumbing their nose at the West, and demonstrating, quite effectively really, that being an ally, or member of NATO will get you nowhere, sadly.

The Russians are telling Poland and the world that the ballistic defense missiles are aimed at them. No doubt, if they keep threatening to nuke people over the placement of defensive weapons in their country, they may indeed need them to defend against other rogue nations than Iran, so they may be correct, in the final analysis, in a twisted sort of way.

What I find most entertaining is that ten defensive missiles are virtually worthless against the huge array of "offensive" missiles and warheads the Russians can field. One missile, with a MIRV warhead would require the use of the entire defensive battery of weapons, so the straw man really doesn't hold much water.

Hell, just cut off there supply of Wheat and Levies and they will fold!

According to Gen Nagovitsyn- Humvees are Russian trophies- and they do not plan to give then back. I wonder if there are any goodies in them?
According to some reports Georgian president Saakashvili had an unofficial meeting with Karl Rowe in Yalta about a week before the whole brewhaha started. I wonder if that was some sort of a blessing for Ossetia operation.
Poles are hoping to get 156 Partiots by 2012- part of the deal with US. With the Partiot record however it is a bit of a gamble- especially with the fact that Russians have some very nasty cruise missiles that could be nuke tipped.

Poles are hoping to get 156 Partiots by 2012- part of the deal with US. With the Partiot record however it is a bit of a gamble- especially with the fact that Russians have some very nasty cruise missiles that could be nuke tipped.

There's no gamble at all. If there's a nuclear war between the US and Russia, then it's all over for Europe anyway. If there isn't a nuclear war between the US and Russia, then nothing happens.

I don't know what people think, Russia's going to first-strike Poland over this? And we're also supposed to believe that this absurd unlikleyhood would somehow not result in a general nuclear exchange?
-Kle.

Apparently the Russians have solved their little Ukrainian port standoff……

They've decided to keep Poti as a war prize too!

You can't talk about wargaming scenarios without talking about who is willing to fight.

We seem to have managed to discuss it quite well for 9 pages so far. :-)

Apparently one cannot just enter the Black sea ( aka Russian lake :-)) especially with a warship- permission has to be granted by the adjoining countries. I am sure US destroyer and Coast guard ship recieved one for humanitarian aid, especially in current tence times.

Hmmm, I figured there would be nations working to get around the rules.

I immediately thought of the Russians declaring their carriers as ASW helicopter ships, of which some, like the Kiev, really are. Probably less able to justify that with the Kuznetsov carrier.

Glad to see the US lawyers are on the ball too, about guided missiles.

Apparently, the Russians are none too pleased with the reported five U.S. warships in the region on a humanitarian mission.

Does anyone have a good link to the current Russian fleet totals, for their active ships and subs?

A link, or reference, would be appreciated, as would details on the various fleet breakdowns too, e.g. the Northern, Baltic, Black Sea, and Pacific fleets.

I'm also especially interested in numbers of smaller craft, by type, e.g. missile boats, torpedo boats, and other small, armed patrol craft. Minesweepers too.

Far from settling down, it appears that this situation will remain unstable for some time to come.

"Moscow now felt obliged to recognise South Ossetia and Abkhazia as other countries had done with Kosovo" link

This is not the place to discuss the politics behind it, but this would appear to indicate that Russian troops will therefore remain in the 'buffer zones' for some time, to ensure the protection and security of the independence.

"A Russian commander said some 2,000 troops, with armoured vehicles and helicopters, would be stationed in a "zone of responsibility" around the breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia." Source: BBC website

Here is an interesting news source: link

Looking back at their articles, you can see them predicting a dust up in South Ossetia, they just failed to see the scale of the Russian reaction.

Indeed-a great thread. I still think the Russians set a trap strategically for the Georgians and had planned the invasion thoroughly. You can't deploy so many divisions, plus sea invasion plus air strikes so quickly- they were ready to roll.

Alas, I think this will see conflict with NATO before the year's out.

The Russians don't respect the West and think that now is a good time to keep pushing for dominance in the region (read Ukraine) and do not think EU etc would contemplate military response, but they may paint NATO into a corner intentionally to 'teach them a lesson' as they (Russia) sees it, whilst they hold all the cards such as energy.

Controversial I know- but they certainly don't share the same values as western democracies.

I was looking for information, did or did not the Russian ships return to Sevastopol? I found articles saying the Ukrainians were thinking about blocking them, but not if they did.

Phillipaj, I'm afraid you are correct that the Russians will continue to use their energy resources as a weapon against the West, but am not sure NATO will intervene by the end of the year.

Possibly eventually, but not now, or anytime soon. Russia knows this, which is why they are currently being so aggressive.

The most the Western nations might do is send in handheld RPG's and SAM's to help the defenders fight back against the Russian forces, much like was done in Afganistan. However, I imagine now we will be far more hesitant to do that, since these can be used by terrorists against civilian targets just as easily.

I fear Europe suffers from the same malaise as they did just prior to WWII, and imagine the same inaction will result until things get really bad. Putin is cagey, and smart enough to know just how far he can push the West, without serious retribution. He is afterall, a Judo and Sambo master, and the ex-head of the FSB (replacement for the former KGB), and appears to be the most effective national leader on the world stage today, sadly.

I'm not even sure that a limited move on the Ukraine would get them galvanized against the Russians, if a cutoff of oil might result.

Poland, maybe, but otherwise the Russians will be free to do as they please against many of their former satellites.

They can sit back in relative comfort, knowing they are shielded by their nuclear umbrella.

did or did not the Russian ships return to Sevastopol?
There were some photos on the BBC website of pro-Russian Ukrainians welcoming the Russian fleet back into Sevastopol, so I would say yes.

The Russians don't respect the West and think that now is a good time to keep pushing for dominance in the region (read Ukraine)
Actually, the BBC has today reported that the Russian recognition of the break-away republics was due to the high number of Russian citizens (passport holders) in the area that needed protecting. That must make Ukraine nervous, as there are large regions of East Ukraine that have very heavy Russian populations and who consider themselves Russians living in Ukraine, rather than Ukrainians.

Glad my wife is coming back tomorrow.

It appears the Russians are none too pleased with US vessels in the region:

link

Seems they would prefer it to be a Russian lake.

Anyone know of other NATO vessels in the area?

The US Navy changes its point of delivery for humanitarian supplies, in order to avoid a confrontation with Russia:

link

In other news, the small African Republic of Bongolesia is under threat of a revolt by many of its military leaders, with only the Royal Guards swearing allegiance to the current government.

Suddolesia is threatening to aid the rebels.

TMP link

Putin shows off his Judo (of the mind) skills/theory:

link

Apparently, there are a lot of Russian and NATO vessels in the Black Sea, with more on the way.

Russia is planning a guided-missile exercise.

Also, apparently the Kuznetsov, and some other vessels are to be based in Syria semi-permanently. Dredging is under way.

Also, the Russian Med. Fleet has been placed under command of the Black Sea Fleet commander.

Lots of interesting naval scenarios available for the modern gamer.

link

link

link

For a game a little closer to home, the Russian and Venezuelan navies will be playing in the Caribbean….

link

Yes, and Hugo plans to fly a Tu-160, at low level, over Cuba to salute Fidel:

link

…and 2 Russian bombers have flown to Venezuela as well. Not a good sign, not to mention the recent diplomat expulsions…

For those whom took a closer look at the fight between Russia & Georgia, how did things go down, for the most part? I gathered from the news reports that this was small company/platoon level skirmishes. Is this correct or were any of the battles above company level?