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"Possible Historical Impact of Failed Assassinations" Topic


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langobard05 Jul 2015 3:34 a.m. PST

I remember a (probably apocryphal) story about a newspaper in the 20's running a competition to find the most startling headline. The winner by far was: "Archduke Franz Ferdinand found alive, WW1 fought by mistake!"

With so much of later 20th century history revolving around various WW1 outcomes, I sort of think it may still be the most startling headline…

Mute Bystander05 Jul 2015 3:55 a.m. PST

Well, on my world was the reason for the choice I made.

skippy000105 Jul 2015 4:52 a.m. PST

I've always liked the idea of Stalin signing the Purge order of 1938, then he's executed first due to a NKVD clerical error….just seems so appropo.
The order is rescinded during the shakeup, Tukhachevsky and Trotsky restructure the government into something more pragmatic and efficient.

Frederick Supporting Member of TMP05 Jul 2015 12:09 p.m. PST

Franz Ferdinand WAS assassinated – if the question was "the biggest difference if he was not assassinated" he would be my choice in a minute

I have to pick Hitler – while a right-wing government would very likely have gotten into power in Germany, it would have much less likely to try to take on – oh, the whole world

Winston Smith05 Jul 2015 1:04 p.m. PST

If Ferdinand had not been assassinated, it would have been some other "damn fool thing in the Balkans" that set off the Great War.
All the same alliances were all in place and all the same clueless and/or morally bankrupt politicians would have pushed the same result.
Everybody was spoiling for a fight and expecting to win.

And I doubt it would have turned out any differently. Same plans, same guys in charge to make the same decisions.

Mute Bystander05 Jul 2015 3:06 p.m. PST

Winston, that is called History. So few actually learn from it…

Personal logo etotheipi Sponsoring Member of TMP05 Jul 2015 6:01 p.m. PST

Franz Ferdinand the Archduke or Franz Ferdinand the band?

Personal logo piper909 Supporting Member of TMP05 Jul 2015 9:26 p.m. PST

Why is Nixon even on this list, but not Teddy Roosevelt? (Altho' the attempt on his life was after he'd left the presidency.)

When was Clinton ever actually attacked?

Personal logo piper909 Supporting Member of TMP05 Jul 2015 9:29 p.m. PST

Oh, and PS: WHICH attempt on Hitler's life? The famous one from 1944, Von Stauffenberg's, was too late to matter very much. But the less-heralded one in, um 1938 (?) by that lone Bavarian (?) in Munich, THAT would have mattered a huge amount. And shame on me for not remembering his name off the top of my head. he deserves to be remembered with honor by everyone. (I could Wiki it, but that's cheating.) I believe a film will be out in the near future on this episode.

Personal logo piper909 Supporting Member of TMP05 Jul 2015 9:35 p.m. PST

While I usually enjoy the humor is these ever-more ridiculous polls, the tongue-in-cheek entries here sort of undermine the purpose for me. Maybe some subjects shouldn't be introduced at all if they aren't going to be taken seriously? Or maybe a moratorium should be introduced when it comes to subjects like killing people?

Frederick Supporting Member of TMP06 Jul 2015 5:34 a.m. PST

Winston raises a good point but the window for a war in 1914 was closing – if the European powers had managed to keep their senses for a few years, the Russian railway expansion project would have meant that by 1917 the fundamental assumption of the Schieffin Plan for the Eastern Front would be invalid – and the Grosse General Stab were not fools! Plus the Kaiser despite his post-war vilification and all his pre-war posturing was actually in mortal dread of starting a war

Personal logo ochoin Supporting Member of TMP06 Jul 2015 6:43 a.m. PST

Indeed, yes: Winston's point questions the effect of many assassinations.

I know FDR was assassinated but his death (in spite of Hitler's hopes) meant not an iota of change in US policy towards the war.

I also wonder if Hitler's death might not have simply brought another warmongering fanatic to the leadership with essentially the same policies and results.

Personal logo The Virtual Armchair General Sponsoring Member of TMP06 Jul 2015 2:08 p.m. PST

"FDR was assassinated…?"

Tell me that was a typo, please!

Zangara did kill Chicago reform Mayor Anton Cermak, but didn't hit Franklin at all, though not missing him by much.

And, regarding Adolf, of course the bastard had it coming, and the war ending in the Summer of 1944 would have saved literally millions of lives, but Europe would still have been split up pretty much as it was, the Cold War would still have followed, Berlin divided, etc, so the future would probably not have been significantly different--except for one thing.

If Uncle Adi had been assassinated in the July Plot, almost immediately the speculation--in Germany, where it would count--would begin that his death prevented him from turning the war around at the last minute. With V-Weapons in hand, and more coming, it would be said that his "genius" could still have saved Nazi Germany at the last minute--and where would be the PROOF that such beliefs would be wrong?

Arguments against such an outcome would be many and powerful, of course, but not to those who would cling to the idea of Germany--once again!--being "Stabbed in the back," and forced to yet another humiliating peace with millions of their soldiers still in the field.

In short, a sudden end to the war would create the very atmosphere that 20 years later might well have given the neo-Nazi's of the 1960's the impetus actually to re-achieve power.

Those of us old enough still remember the magazine and newspaper articles in the early to mid-60's "predicting" Germany would go back to a far Right government bent on revenge, and that was when, in retrospect, there was actually very little chance of that happening.

I still shock myself when I say it, but in the end, I have come to think it's best the Pig From Braunau survived the bomb plot(s) and took down Germany--and Nazism--with him a sea of blood and fire. No myths of the Wehrmacht or Hitler turning the war around, no question but that Germany was utterly defeated and made to face its guilt and suffer the consequences. That was the only way to end not only the war, but it's most immediate cause. Dying early would have been Der Fuehrer's dream if it meant his ascension to the pantheon of German Gods--one of whom could yet return to birth the "Fourth Reich".

Cold comfort, I well understand, to the millions still to die in the camps, fire bombings, and combat to come in those last 10 months of the war in Europe, but their graves have been the foundation of 70 years of general peace since, despite the repeated best efforts of one half of the Victors to experience it all again--and still do today.

TVAG

Personal logo ochoin Supporting Member of TMP07 Jul 2015 1:59 p.m. PST

Ouch! Typo.

Tom Bryant07 Jul 2015 7:08 p.m. PST

Its ok ochoin. I would still have liked to see Stalin "fall ill" about 15 to 20 years sooner than he did. If Adolf had been liquidated in '36 or '37, at any rate far enough before the Anschluss to keep Germany in check we may have had to deal with 50+ years of Fascist power in the world Stalin was not sitting idly by. I believe that sooner or later there would have been a clash of powers between East and West. Its interesting to think about what a Cold War would look like with the Nazis replacing the Reds as the "bad guys".

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