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"Official CDC Report Puts COVID-19 Death Rate At Just 0.26%" Topic


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wmyers23 May 2020 11:19 a.m. PST

Principia Scientific is reporting that "It's official. Most people are more likely to wind up six feet under because of almost anything else under the sun other than COVID-19.

The CDC just came out with a report that should be earth-shattering to the narrative of the political class, yet it will go into the thick pile of vital data and information about the virus that is not getting out to the public."

"For the first time, the CDC has attempted to offer a real estimate of the overall death rate for COVID-19, and under its most likely scenario, the number is 0.26%. Officials estimate a 0.4% fatality rate among those who are symptomatic and project a 35% rate of asymptomatic cases among those infected, which drops the overall infection fatality rate (IFR) to just 0.26% – almost exactly where Stanford researchers pegged it a month ago."

link

link

Gunfreak Supporting Member of TMP23 May 2020 11:32 a.m. PST

And that's all we need to say that.

link

wmyers23 May 2020 11:57 a.m. PST

Yes! Ignore the message because you do not like the messenger!

Or in this case, the facts.

Integrity at its best!

The content, essentially, is simply a link to the CDC report and a Stanford study, with some non-political explanation.

Gunfreak Supporting Member of TMP23 May 2020 12:22 p.m. PST

If you post a link to Deleted by Moderator. I'm gonna dismiss it.

The link you gave is the scientific equivalent of Deleted by Moderator.
If it's the facts I'm sure you won't have a problem finding a proper source for it.

Repiqueone In the TMP Dawghouse23 May 2020 12:31 p.m. PST

No, Mr. Myers, it isn't because we dislike the messenger that we reject them. The root cause for rejecting any scientific conclusion by the Principia bunch is they are laughable. They have NO scientific standing and are generally so far to the weird side of the spectrum that no one, except a very few wackos would ever, ever, cite them on any scientific topic. This is the equivalent of citing flat earthers on geography!

As for Horowitz, he is a far right political commentator, that lacks any training, education, or known expertise on science. He has one hell of a political agenda, that is rather much of an extreme case even in the conservative political arena.

Neither of them have any scientific standing. Try again. Where's the "Official" CDC number of .26% ? May we have a decimal misplaced?

Repiqueone In the TMP Dawghouse23 May 2020 2:22 p.m. PST

Hmmm…it appears the document that's the source of this posting is(was) a planning document from 2019 and the article is essentially a duplicitous rehash of that old document, augmented by citations from a limited study of California regional numbers. It's nonsense and serves primarily a political, not scientific, purpose.

MiniPigs In the TMP Dawghouse23 May 2020 2:33 p.m. PST

I heard the opposite, that the CDC was under pressure to report larger amounts of cases in order to drive the death rate percentage down:


link


@wwmeyers


Ahem…AHEM

Not the most trustworthy source in the world ( link ), is historically very biased with hidden agendas, and the evidence is incompatible with the mountain of data showing the how the virus originated.

Not worth our time.

TMP link

Personal logo 20thmaine Supporting Member of TMP23 May 2020 5:33 p.m. PST

I like Maths. I'll even use your numbers.

Take a population of 130million.

Let a highly contagious virus rip through it such that 80% will catch it.

Of that 104million infected 0.26% die.

That's 270,400 people. On top of the normal death rate.

So, more than a quarter a million dead. But hey, do all the infected get off ok?

No they don't around 10% will need to be in hospital for a couple of weeks at least. That's 10million people in hospital beds, for lets say a very low 10 days 100million extra hospital bed days fine if you have 10 or 20 million hospital beds sitting empty all the time. You don't? Hmm, then you're not going to like that about 250,000 of those people are actually going to be in hospital for 6-10 weeks, with maybe 2-4 weeks in Intensive Care Units. But, hey, you probably have 100,000 spare ICU beds, and ICU nurses/doctors just hanging around doing nothing.

You don't? That's a shame.

So, what are you going to do? You would have a plan to cope with that? Really, no plan ?

Oh.

In that case the death rate is going to go up a lot. Those 250,000 who need ICU treatment and would recover well they'll die with out it. So that's got us to 520,400 dead. And those 10million who need hospital treatment but don't get it well, some of them will die as well let's be generous, just 1% another 100,000.

So we've hit 620,400 dead in the "no plan just let it rip" scenario.

Now your death rate is 0.48%.

And that's still being pretty optimistic. Push up the infection rate a little, be a bit more reasonable about the "no treatment in hospital because there's just too many to treat" deaths and you're looking at 1 or 2% of the population dying. Couple of million give or take a little. That's what "do nothing" achieves.

You'll now tell me I'm wrong even though I'm working from your numbers. No, I'm not psychic….

Mithmee23 May 2020 7:07 p.m. PST

Of that 104million infected 0.26% die.

That's 270,400 people. On top of the normal death rate.

Which is why that 0.26% is still far to high and there needs to be some "0's" in front of that "2"

Personal logo Dan Cyr Supporting Member of TMP23 May 2020 9:16 p.m. PST

The rabbit hole just keeps getting deeper and deeper.

Tumbleweed Supporting Member of TMP24 May 2020 9:18 a.m. PST

More than 97,000 human beings have died from the Covid-19 virus in less than three months. More deaths than all of the combat deaths suffered by U.S. forces in every war we have fought in since 1946.

And it's a long way from being over.

The only thing we have to fear is the fear of fear itself. A little fear can be a good thing if it keeps you alive. So be afraid and live.

Wear a mask when you go out in public. You know the drill, just do it.

What's the problem? Afraid of looking weak, silly or unmanly? I wear a cartridge respirator, eye-protection and gloves every time I go out.

Go back to work if you can, but wear the PPE.

Mithmee24 May 2020 10:11 a.m. PST

97,000

Yes but how many are actually from COVID 19?

Short answer it not 97,000 that is for sure.

As to wearing a mask.

I will leave that up to you because I will not.

Personal logo ochoin Supporting Member of TMP24 May 2020 1:22 p.m. PST

Short answer it not 97,000 that is for sure.

Partly right for a change, Mithmee. The correct answer is "higher".

That radical organisation, National Geographic, explains in simple terms, why the dead have been undercounted:

link

Mithmee24 May 2020 2:45 p.m. PST

No it not it is far, far lower.

There is no under count they only want you to think that there is.

You have individuals who have died from gunshots as being put down as COVID 19.

When you have media trying so hard to claim that it is to low believe the exact opposite.

Repiqueone In the TMP Dawghouse24 May 2020 3:06 p.m. PST

Mithmee, why not a few sources on your claims of an over count? Any real data? Any citations from anyone that's not a charlatan? For instance, the certified case that labeled a gunshot victim a Covid death ( though I suppose you could be both). What advantage is it to media to claim an undercount, or an overcount? Just to get some imbecile running for office?

Your narrative makes no sense. Not even you can explain it.

Martin from Canada24 May 2020 3:16 p.m. PST

What a deep rabbit hole that turned out to be. That whole thing about overcounting stems from accounting practices that would make Enron or Boeing blush… Here's the thing, determining cause of death is an interpretive action by a physician or a corner. There's going to be some amount of fuzzyness in the data even if everybody is interpreting the data in good faith. In this case, you have about 5 people who died in Washington State with gunshot wounds and tested positive for COVID-19 out of over 1000 COVID deaths, and 3000 deaths that are suspected of being covid related, but not confirmed. And that's assuming that the gunshots and the covid are unrelated. What about suicide for people with the desease? Or what if infectious disease protocols make treating the wounds harder and the patient bleeds on the operating table while the surgeon is suiting up, but would have been able to save the patient in an alternate scenario where there were no COVID? That being said, I'll remind you that this is still less than 0.5% of the Washington State total. THIS IS A STATISTICAL ROUNDING ERROR.

This is the same playbook as with climate science, in which you amplify the uncertainty in one small aspect in order to try and discredit the whole, or muddy things up so much that the broader public goes "pox on both their houses" and end-up with their desired end-goal of no government action.

link

Personal logo McKinstry Supporting Member of TMP Fezian24 May 2020 5:28 p.m. PST

I just came back from a social gathering (outside, properly distanced and heavily adult beveraged lubricated) that was essentially all EMT, Firefighter and Coroner/Deputy Coroner and the consensus was the CV-19 count is way low. The Coroners can only list CV-19 as COD with a positive test and do not test bodies we bring in after welfare checks. The EMT/Firefighter community sees a lot of folks that were stable but declining with a variety of issues that had their lifespan shortened by months or years by this plague. No credible study or medical entity exists that documents anything other than a significant undercount. The only people claiming otherwise are simply pushing a political agenda divorced from fact.

Personal logo Dan Cyr Supporting Member of TMP24 May 2020 8:37 p.m. PST

Also, note the sudden uptick in at-home deaths over the past few months, many times over the weekly/monthly statistical average for many cities and locations. Unless an autopsy is preformed, usually at a hospital if one dies there, any "natural" appearing death of someone at home is not tested and rarely counted.

link

Martin from Canada24 May 2020 8:48 p.m. PST

Looks like these numbers by the CDC are so far out of the consensus of non-US based modelers using US data, I wonder what's behind it.

link
From Dr. Carl T. Bergstrom's twitter thread:

The Imperial College Report 23, with graphic edited by Dr. Bergstrom to add the CDC data.

picture

And here's the CDC numbers ligned up with the meta analysis mentioned in the thread:

picture

Personal logo ochoin Supporting Member of TMP24 May 2020 11:10 p.m. PST

No it not it is far, far lower.

There is no under count they only want you to think that there is.

You have individuals who have died from gunshots as being put down as COVID 19.

When you have media trying so hard to claim that it is to low believe the exact opposite.

No, it is far, far higher. There is an undercount because They don't want you to take precautions.

Your story of gunshot wounds is hilarious. I won't even ask for proof because that's patently false. The "media" (I won't name names) who are telling lies are the organisation that is trying, unsuccessfully, to deny the death count for political reasons.

Be careful of Them!

Mithmee25 May 2020 5:39 p.m. PST

No it not and you can google the gunshot victim being counted in Washington State.

So believe what you will.

I and others have prove this several times but well…

Martin from Canada25 May 2020 8:06 p.m. PST

No it not and you can google the gunshot victim being counted in Washington State.

I did. It's 5 cases out of a thousand. It's a statistical rounding error.
link

Personal logo ochoin Supporting Member of TMP25 May 2020 11:25 p.m. PST

So believe what you will.


I will believe scientifically proven fact not Conspiracy Theory nonsense.

I and others have prove this several times but well…

No you haven't. Not once. Not remotely. Not credibly. Not logically. You haven't.

Mithmee26 May 2020 6:30 a.m. PST

Yes I have but you just like that the count is being inflated.

The more the better.

Personal logo ochoin Supporting Member of TMP26 May 2020 1:27 p.m. PST

you just like

I'm not the one refusing to face reality and let Fear motivate their words (because they are afraid of "They").

The fewer the better. I should take umbrage at your implied accusation that I revel in death & suffering except I know my record stands for itself & I do not take your utterances seriously.
I'm assuming this is a litany for you:

YouTube link

Dn Jackson27 May 2020 3:39 a.m. PST

"The EMT/Firefighter community sees a lot of folks that were stable but declining with a variety of issues that had their lifespan shortened by months or years by this plague."

How are the EMTs/Firefighters coming to these conclusions? They get a call, respond to the scene, and leave. They're not tracking anything.

"Also, note the sudden uptick in at-home deaths over the past few months, many times over the weekly/monthly statistical average for many cities and locations."

Any chance this is because people are staying home all the time now? Seems to make sense that more people would die at home when they're not allowed to leave. I'm sure deaths in parks, bars, beaches, gyms, cars, etc. are way down.

Mithmee27 May 2020 8:20 a.m. PST

Now "Real Facts" just do not go with what they want to have happen.

We have individuals here who have brought into the lies and nothing is going to change their minds that this is the worst pandemic that has ever hit this planet.

Its not and will not even be close to several past pandemics.

Personal logo McKinstry Supporting Member of TMP Fezian27 May 2020 11:02 a.m. PST

They're not tracking anything.

We follow up on every single patient that gets transported. Outside of the big cities, it is what you do.

Personal logo ochoin Supporting Member of TMP27 May 2020 1:22 p.m. PST

We have individuals here who have brought into the lies and nothing is going to change their minds that this is the worst pandemic that has ever hit this planet.

Literally no one here has ever said that. Unlike the person who claimed it a hoax & who said it would never reach 700 cases in the US.

Mithmee27 May 2020 1:41 p.m. PST

There you go again with the false statements from me.

I never claim that it was a hoax or did I ever claim that there would only be 700 cases.

All I have claimed is this is not as dangerous as they are claiming and that the death count is being inflated.

Plus there was no need for any shutdowns.

But you can go on believing what you will because "Real Facts" just get in the way of the lies.

wmyers27 May 2020 2:06 p.m. PST

In fair defence, Mithmee was accused of making claims I had never seen.

Things like "hoax", "conspiracy theory", "tinfoil hat ", "denier", etc, were attack terms used against him for having the fortitude of having his own opinion that differed from that of CNN, NBC, etc.

Whether out of fear, panic, confusion, an opportunity seen to be exploited for a personal attack, a select few on these boards have attacked him for "daring" to go against said narrative.

Personal logo ochoin Supporting Member of TMP27 May 2020 11:23 p.m. PST

There you mention "lies" again, Mithmee. A Freudian slip.

You made those claims and I have no idea what the significance of using inverted commas & capitalisation around the phrase real facts is supposed to mean. It's incorrect grammar at least.
I hasten to add that I have not "brought" into the lies, either.

Personal logo ochoin Supporting Member of TMP27 May 2020 11:26 p.m. PST

Whether out of fear, panic, confusion, an opportunity seen to be exploited for a personal attack, a select few on these boards have attacked him for "daring" to go against said narrative.

I suppose I should be surprised you would try to make Mithmee a victim & the arguments against him, personal attacks.


As I'm sure you know, this is far from the truth. As far as Mithmee goes, I hold him no rancour, despite his attempts to promulgate various ludicrous conspiracy theories. Nor does his attempt to constantly shift the goalposts in terms of denying what he has claimed, rankle. My responses are simply to correct the flood of disinformation, omissions & distortions that emanate from him.

Your desire to side with his narrative does you no credit.

MiniPigs In the TMP Dawghouse28 May 2020 4:52 a.m. PST

In fair defence, Mithmee was accused of making claims I had never seen.

Things like "hoax", "conspiracy theory", "tinfoil hat ", "denier", etc, were attack terms used against him for having the fortitude of having his own opinion that differed from that of CNN, NBC, etc.

Whether out of fear, panic, confusion, an opportunity seen to be exploited for a personal attack, a select few on these boards have attacked him for "daring" to go against said narrative.

I think the problem here is bias and agenda. I mean it is clear to me that most of the posters here are in the paid control of "Them" and were sent here to post against him. Never mind that just about everything he says is in the opposite direction of the evil, mainstream media. We all know that CNN and the rest never get anything right, ever…I mean, ever.

But I have to ask, how is it in a rotten, stinking world of bias and agenda, the two of you are still surprised and shocked to find…gulp…bias and agenda?

I mean the corrupt results are clear and we should thank the heavens for a man of principle standing unflinchingly in the face of such overwhelming wickedness. And all right thinking men should shake their fists towards heaven and ask the almighty "Where are we in the world when three armed men cant hunt down and kill an unarmed one and have the case swept under the carpet by their friend?"

I mean, really, what honest man would want that looked into?

*Minipigs shakes his head in sorrow*

Bias and agenda…bias…and…agenda.

Mithmee28 May 2020 7:29 a.m. PST

constantly shift the goalposts in terms of denying what he has claimed

No you are the individual who claims I have called this a…

Hoax

Never made that claim at all.

Also you have claimed that I state this would never get 700 cases.

Never made that claim either.

So I am not the individual who is making up lies about what I said.

Things like "hoax", "conspiracy theory", "tinfoil hat ", "denier", etc, were attack terms used against him

Yes been used in the past and will be used again and again in the future.

I just ignore them or do I ever go down to that level.

They disagree with what I have stated even when I post that someone who died from drinking too much and that there experts own words stating that they are counting anyone found dead as dying from COVID 19.

Mithmee28 May 2020 7:38 a.m. PST

"Where are we in the world when three armed men cant hunt down and kill an unarmed one

Well first off they did not hunt down anyone and only two of the men were armed.

But as I have stated already you have already convicted all three of them.

That is not up for you to decided because that is up to a jury to decide.

Memento Mori30 May 2020 9:22 a.m. PST

Infection and resultant death rates can be higher for certain elements of society specifically older people and those with medical problems. Given that this would include a lot of TMP it may be a suggestion that we pay closer attention to what is going on.
This is a case study from the early days in an area 90 miles from Mithmee. This was before the current rates of infection and shows what can easily happen if social distancing goes wrong. Skagit Valley is near Mt Vernon on the road between Bellingham and Seattle. It is about 90 miles north of Mithmee in Pierce Washington This contact was made before the state shutdown and was at a time when the COVID 19 outbreak was considered to be mild. It is a perfect example of how uncontrolled normal social behavior, singing in a church choir caused infection.
The Sagit Valley Health reported stated "Among the 61 choir members who attended the March 10 practice, the median age was 69 years (range = 3183 years); 84% were women. Median age of those who became ill was 69 years, and 85% of cases occurred in women. Excluding the laboratory-confirmed index patient, 52 (86.7%) of 60 attendees became ill; 32 (61.5%) of these cases were confirmed by RT-PCR testing and 20 (38.5%) persons were considered to have probable infections. These figures correspond to secondary attack rates of 53.3% and 86.7% among confirmed and all cases, respectively. Attendees developed symptoms 1 to 12 days after the practice (median = 3 days). The first SARS-CoV-2 test was performed on March 13. The last person was tested on March 26. ( may 13 2020 Two people died so about 4% of the infected
A lot of us are in that age category and while you may not become infected you do cause possible exposure to those who can become sick and some may die Yes old people will die, sometime, but it should not be as the direct immediate result of going to choir. They should have lived a while longer or could die ion a week but were not given that chance You social distance to protect others, Not doing so is a callous disregard of people around you

Mithmee30 May 2020 2:32 p.m. PST

No you can Social Distance yourself.

I will not or will I ever wear a mask while outside.

Memento Mori30 May 2020 3:36 p.m. PST

What do you men by NO you can social distance yourself.

Enough with your cute answers How about some straight talk.

Do you mean you stay away from people all the time or maybe you stay in all the time

So if go out and come within "spitting" distance you stay there without a mask so hoping that you re not infected – what's your guarantee of that other than false bravery Have you been tested ? Do you believe that CORVID19 is a danger to some people or not? Do you care if it is or are you OK because you won't be infected/

BTW do you wear a seatbelt while in a car and do you obey speed laws. Are they restrictions on freedom?

Maybe wearing a mask is similar to a seatbelt – you don't want to crash but if you do you have another layer of safety You hope not to become infected but you could infect others.

Mithmee31 May 2020 7:25 a.m. PST

It means that if you want to Social Distance yourself go right ahead.

I will not.

You have not been paying attention to the numbers.

The chances of you getting this is slim to none.

With far less than 1% of the population being confirmed that means you have a better than 99% not getting it.

Also if you do get it chances are good that you will never know that you even had it and if you did you would probably not die from it.

But looks you think this is far deadly than it really is and prefer to live in Fear.

Go right ahead since that is your choice to make.

Me I know that this is not as dangerous as they are claiming and that the number of dead is being inflated.

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