"More than 5 million Americans will be infected with" Topic

….coronavirus and 290,000 will die by the end of July if social distancing isn't adhered to, according to COVID-19 model

"Coronavirus infections could reach as high as 5.4 million in the US in the next two months and more than 290,000 Americans could die if social distancing isn't adhered to, according to a COVID-19 forecast model.

The ominous forecast from the University Of Pennsylvania's Wharton School model accounts for all states fully reopening without any social distancing measures…"

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Amicalement
Armand

You do know that probably 15-30 Million already have been.

They are just focusing on the one who get tested.

Data collection methods vary so much from place to place that I don't feel like I can trust any overviews synthesized from aggregations. Five institutions appear to have contributed to this no at all alarmist map, and one of them, well. Actually I have qualms about two of them.

300,000 deaths is not out of the question, in my amateur, uninformed, seat-of-the-pants estimation, but it will be 300,000 by the end of 2021, not by this July.

That said, I am staying home, wearing a mask when I go out, making sure my vulnerable friends don't have to go out, and printing PPE on two 3D printers in the garage. I think we should all take this very seriously until proven otherwise. At the same time, hate, fear, and anger do not treat, diagnose, prevent, or cure anything, but plenty of people are whipping those up for the sake of remunerative clicks and political advantage. Shameful.

+ 1 Andrew

Visited a hardware store yesterday for an emergency needed piece of equipment for the home. I was the only one wearing a mask, entire staff and the few other shoppers were males, braving the new world in WI.

Old enough with health issues to fear the virus, plus both my wife and I have mothers near 90 that would have no chance if they caught the bug. Odd how many folks are willing to endanger the rest of the population.

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300,000 deaths is not out of the question, in my amateur, uninformed, seat-of-the-pants estimation, but it will be 300,000 by the end of 2021, not by this July.

We have a bingo.

300k in July is under a model of behaviour that has every state in the us say "let 'er rip" and the population eliminate all social distancing measures. Baseline only has 150k dead by July 24th 2022, and various levels of open strategies has points in the middle of those two numbers.

Once again, when using models nobody really expects to see the upper and lower ends of a projection, but these numbers can be useful in order to scope out how bad things can get if there's no intervention. Furthermore, these upper end estimates also assumes no changes in personal behaviour in light of the new evidence, and that's contrary to empirical evidence. For example, the number of table bookings on OpenTable (~20 market share in restaurant bookings) cratered days before the safer at home orders were implemented.

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Well 300K will not happen and the 90+K well when you inflate the numbers it is very easy to run up a false tally.

In I see Martin has charts for almost everything.

That chart just shows what was done to our economy and there will be places that will not be opening back up again since they went out of business.

For example, the number of table bookings on OpenTable (~20 market share in restaurant bookings) cratered days before the safer at home orders were implemented.

If you read your chart, it actually states the crater was 5days after the lockdown begins …

In I see Martin has charts for almost everything.

I prefer to support my posts with something other than argumenta ex culo. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

If you read your chart, it actually states the crater was 5days after the lockdown begins …

So 25% less bookings year over year the day before the lockdown isn't cratering?