"Top Coronavirus Model Predicts 100,000 Americans Dead" Topic

Why is the United States likely to suffer a higher percentage of cases and fatalities than other developed nations like France or Britain?

Because of our very nature. We Americans, by our very nature, are masters of the art of resisting authority. When you tell an American not to assemble because of the spread of a virus, he will just have to show you he knows better than you do and prove you wrong. So he shoulders his AR-15 and goes to the rally anyway.

We Americans have historically distrusted our own government. It's in our Constitution. It's a great way to prevent tyranny, but a glaring weak point when fighting a deadly disease outbreak unless it is tempered with a recognition that sometimes you just have to shut up and listen to directions to survive.

And now a word about "fear." We're not talking about hysterical people running down the street, waving their hands in the air and screaming at the top of their lungs. A little fear is a good thing if it motivates you to wear your personal protective equipment when you go out in public.

The only thing we have to fear is the fear of fear itself, so be afraid and live.

+1 Tumbleweed

A "fear" of being told to practice safe and healthy measures so that one does not get sick or infect others, seems to require waving Confederate flags, ropes, signs that read "give me liberty or death", gather in groups without masks and open carry assault weapons in public. That is some "fear".

A lot of people have trouble differentiating between personal liberty and collective responsibility.

Economically it is similar when personal interest supersedes group dynamics There is the adage that a Recession is when your neighbor is out of work but if you are out of work it is a depression

100% Tumbleweed real Common sense

I don't agree, more than any western modern country Americans flock to authority.

30% of the American population are currently .

When Americans go to church against government orders. It's because the preacher is their authority and he says it's safe. The blind faith Americans give some authority figures is unique to them, not seen in Canadians or Europeans.

Same is seen with the blind hero worship of authority like police, military, judges etc.

When Americans fight authority it's only because another authority tells then too.

Be it their preacher, clan leader, chapter leader, cell leader, Alex Jones, Trump, militia leader, or billionaire.

The current "fight against authority" is astroturfed by billionaires who want to open the country, so poor people can die while the rich get richer.

Americans are hero-worshipers. It's a big part of our culture.

…more than any western modern country Americans flock to authority.

Well, with the exception of Germany, Italy, Spain in the 1940s…

Seems like a lot of people are protesting against authority at the moment.

The primary authoritarian forces in the US have always been very conservative religion, linked with organizations promoting preferential opportunity for white people, and US business monopolies. Historically, there were immense social pressures for people to conform with the needs and mores of these groups. Whole structures, both formal and informal, were constructed to enforce the sway of these groups. They ranged from the railway monopoly vs the farmers in the late 19th century, one hundred years of Jim Crow enforced by White Citizen Councils and the KKK, to combining healthcare with employment thereby making workers hostage to their job, and all sorts of religious sanctions against women, minorities, and on gender issues.

The idiocies we see playing out now in politics as well as socially, and regrettably, in the ravages of this virus, are largely caused by the authoritarians seeing a threat to their power in this country from minorities, women, and forces that are martialling electoral power behind needed change. We are going through a disruption similar to that which ocurred in the late 19th and into the 20th century. In that era we saw the power move from the farm to industry, and from rural to urban locales. There was a widening of the franchise in voting and economic opportunity flowing from these new forces.

This time we are headed, fitfully, from the industrial to post-industrial world. this will see demands for added political power moving from white males to literally every other demographic. They will still have some power but only a share of it, not total. Religious groups will lose a substantial amount of say over social issues and far less political influence outside of the South, and less even there. Businesses will try to navigate these waters.but will find it nearly impossible to maintain their present privilege. Business taxes will go up, and workers will have increased economic freedom from their employers-especially on healthcare. Both political parties will radically change or decline into irrelevancy to be replaced with new organizations.

The change was coming, but the Pandemic is a volatile accelerant. This next generation will be the change we need.

PS the primary estimation used by the Administration has raised the probable deaths by mid-summer to 135,000. The daily rate is estimated to climb to 3000 deaths per day by June1.

This is very sad. Perhaps it could have been lessened by adequate leadership, but we will never know as that time window has closed. Last week, 2000 a day died in the US. Let's hope these deaths have not been in vain and appropriate actions are taken by every citizen with the one real weapon they have-the vote.

Ah, the protesters…

I see the grief of families who have lost loved ones to the virus,
I see the heroic work of doctors, nurses, etc, working in hospitals,
the amazing selfless charity of people like Captain Tom and others,
the dedication of families just getting on with life in quarantine,
tributes, such as the Thunderbirds flying over our city to honor essential workers,
I could go on and on.

Then there are the protesters. Railing like juveniles against common sense measures designed, across the world, to limit this virus; to save lives. Against measures that are already being relaxed as peaks are pasted. Protesters who don't understand simple science, or whats good for their common countrymen. Who have no faith in Americans, or our economy, bouncing back after adversary.
But feel the need to kit themselves up like pathetic SEAL wannabies of course.

I feel nothing but contempt for these whining little babies.

Seems like a lot of people are protesting against authority at the moment.

Or protesting against that someone is daring to inconvenience them. Protesting against the "right" to a haircut, or get a new tattoo or to attend a sporting event.

Italy announced this weekend that special "immunity licenses" indicating that the person has had COVID-19 and recovered and may go to work will NOT be issued, as it appears that such people may not be immune to re-infection. This is a blow to the herd immunity argument.

One by one the heartfelt beliefs of the deniers are falling by the wayside.

Repiq,

You once again show that you really do not know all that much.

"Herd Immunity" is getting the majority of individuals to come in contact with this and thus allowing their bodies to deal with it.

Remember most who get this will not even know that they had it.

Plus you can get the Flu each year even if you do get a Flu shot.

So by doing forcing individuals to stay away from each other and staying home just seem that this will take far longer for individuals to gain "Herd Immunity".

Callous or what!

No just stating plain hard facts that many here just want to discount because it goes against the Fear & Panic.

I could post Media articles where they are attempting to pull at individuals heart strings by posting about those who have died.

Does not work with me. So call it Callous, call it Cold-Hearted, but…

It is the truth, people have been dying by the thousands each and everyday in this country and from around the world that number is in the tens of thousands.

Since this disease is killing off those that probably would have died due to their bad hearts, bad kidneys, and diabetes instead of being counted under those they are being put down as dying from COVID 19.

That is wrong but most here believe everything that they are being told by the so call experts and do not question the numbers at all.

The only thing we have to fear is the fear of fear itself, so be afraid and live.

Sorry no because given even their inflated death toll this is not as dangerous as they are claiming it to be.

Now if we had 30 – 50 thousands dying every die from it, but…

That is not even the case now is it.

To give up any Rights just to appease the individuals in power means that you really do not want any rights and deserve everything that is being taken away from you.

Because once you give up any of your Rights you will never get them back.

The daily rate is estimated to climb to 3000 deaths per day by June 1.

This is very sad.

No it is just another attempt to pushing the "Fear & Panic".

We see around around 7,500 dying everyday normally so they have plenty to pick from to make it look like this is killing more than it actually is.

Oh and you along with many others will believe whatever these individuals say.

I would comment about the other stuff you posted but as I have stated before this is not The Blue Fez.

common sense measures designed, across the world, to limit this virus; to save lives

No these are not common sense measures but they are idiotic and stupid in many ways.

Which is why you had individuals protesting against certain individuals and there idiotic policies.

There was no need to shutdown anything other than for certain individuals and groups to gain more "Power & Control" and to take away certain Rights.

Some people on this forum are exhibiting extreme mental dissonance. I honestly don't know how to reply to the last few postings.

I will only say that if immunity is not achievable by anti-bodies then herd immunity is equally not achievable. In either case it increases the overall number of deaths, and becomes a recurrent infection threat.

What does one do if the counter-arguments are nonsensical? How do you argue when the opposing view is totally free of fact or logic?

It isn't a question of being wrong, but not having any connection to reality or fact.

Fact,

Around 7,500 die every day in this country on average every day.

Or is that not true?

Fact around 150,000 give or take die every day on average on this planet.

Or is that also not true.

In either case it increases the overall number of deaths, and becomes a recurrent infection threat.

This was always going to become a recurrent infection threat because it is very similar to the Flu and that comes back each and every year.

As to the first part…

Everyone dies and for some who did die from this they might not have if they made more healthy life choices.

Oh, Mithmee….. if you cannot see that those statements are entirely apart from the issue, nothing anyone can say will have any impact on your opinions. I guess that other than cluttering up a perfectly good forum and preventing any meaningful exchange of ideas, or, at least, making it painful for most reasonable people to actually discuss ideas, it is nothing in the big picture but a minor frustration for many here.

Repique kindly return to the Fezz to tell us how HRC is NOT PoTUS and the GOP is NOT destroyed.

Report, why the personal attacks?

Why can't you just let others have their own opinions that differ from yours?!

They are not trying to force them on you nor make you believe in them nor calling for you to be excluded from anywhere. Yet, it seems you are.

Why?

Report, why the personal attacks?

Ah, me and Repiq have a long history and I would have to say that I am not liked by him one bit.

He does have something against the South since he brings that up all the time.

if you cannot see that those statements are entirely apart from the issue, nothing anyone can say will have any impact on your opinions

Very true but I did ask are those facts or not.

Oh and they do have everything to do with the current death toll since they are counting quite a few that should have been put down as dying from, heart attacks, Renal Failure, Cancer and a few other things.

But you and many others are totally buying the numbers given and not questioning them at all.

Will I am questioning them.

Railing like juveniles against common sense measures designed, across the world, to limit this virus; to save lives. Against measures that are already being relaxed as peaks are pasted.

I think you don't understand.

In Michigan, where the protests are happening, the lockdown measures have been excessive. People are protesting because the restrictions are not common sense.

Also, the lockdown was made stricter despite numbers improving.

Dear editor, I think your view is highly subjective. A Fox News poll taken in late April shows Whitmer to be very popular, 16 points higher than Trump in Michigan, with a high approval rating.See: link Her own citizens are not seeing it as excessive. Those protesters are a very small unrepresentative group with highly political backing.

Far from excessive, she is confronting the seventh largest outbreak of Covid19 in the US and aggressively bending the curve of infections. Common sense is certainly not found in the AR-15 toting wannabe soldiers. It is also true that the numbers improving characterization is related to her actions, and opening up a state may do the reverse. At the moment we are running an experiment with the citizens of several states that have cut back on restrictions, let's wait two weeks and see how that goes. It should settle this issue. Almost all scientific estimations are being cranked up higher in anticipation of a greater toll. You might note that NY is down by 25%, but the US rate has remained constant as other areas are seeing growth

Here is the original link the above link refers to (I add this as when I went to the one linked, there were multiple pop-up ads and it was a third party site):

link

These numbers jump out:

33 percent think her stay-at-home order is too restrictive, a 57 percent majority says it is "about right." Another 9 percent think she should have gone further.

61 percent, would rather wait to loosen restrictions, even if it prolongs the economic crisis. That's far more than the 24 percent who want to open the economy sooner, even if it means the public health crisis lasts longer.

The poll was conducted "Conducted April 18-21, 2020".

I think the key question that should have been asked, "Has your opinion been influenced by the media's coverage of the Coronavirus?"

If response is "yes" then a subsequent battery of questions open up about the types and extent of influence.

Without those, it is a very incomplete picture.

Regardless, fully 1/3 (33%) stating "too restrictive" is far from a

very small unrepresentative group

.

In addition, ALL, EVERY SINGLE ONE, of those used in the poll were actually

highly political

as they were all, each and every one of them, registered Michigan voters.

As for the protesters, Repiqueone, please provide evidence to support your allegations the protesters were an

unrepresentative group with highly political backing

?

1) Unrepresentative of what?

2) Political backing by whom?

Mr. Myers, please read. I specifically said " those PROTESTORS are a very small unrepresentative group with highly political backing". They are a subset of the minority 33%, many of which did not don tactical gear and grab their inadequacy compensation device.

They are unrepresentative of the general public's 24% that want immediate opening in their choice of acting like asshats.

It is widely known and noted in several reports that organization and funding for these activities came from several far right groups including one largely run by Betsy DeVos' family.

Any further questions? Citations are available. Thanks for the data links that support my comments. Do you ever read your citations before posting?

Thing about polls they are designed to get a certain response.

They target a very small sample of individuals and can be greatly influence by:

Where you do the polling.

What questions are asked.

What data did the individuals reporting on it actually use.

Which is why you should never believe them ever.

Unless you ask every single person in Michigan the exact same questions they are not representative of anything other than a few hundred to maybe a thousand individuals.

"Herd Immunity" is getting the majority of individuals to come in contact with this and thus allowing their bodies to deal with it.

That is not what constitutes herd immunity.

Herd immunity is specifically when a sufficient percentage of the population is immune, either through vaccine or an effective antibody titer to the extent that statistically, even the non-immune portion of the population is safe from community transmission. The variability of the virus (how many strains) and the infectiousness can greatly affect what percentage of the population is needed so for example, we can get significant measles outbreaks even when the general population is over 90% immune. This is particularly true if subsets such as the Somali population in Minnesota forms a vulnerable cohort. For CV-19, the numbers I have seen not for complete herd immunity but rather a sufficient percentage to avoid potentially crashing the healthcare system is roughly 70%. Part of that problem is we do not know if catching the virus builds immunity and if he does, for how long (season, years, lifetime?) and does it apply to everyone that catches it.

Full herd immunity might need something on the order of 95-96% but we do not know if or how long immunity may last once you have had the disease and we are seeing troubling variants of the virus that may imply the possibility of no shared immunity across strains as with influenza although as with influenza, some degree of protection may be possible even if reinfection occurs.

Immunity is variable. Most public health organizations offer what is called a titer test in which they screen your blood for the basic stuff such as measles, mumps etc. That test often shows that despite having certain childhood diseases, as you age your body can lose that immunity. Herd immunity is a relatively complex concept and not one that lends itself to easy answers. Simply having enough people catch something is not the answer.

The minority:

link

link

Yeah,Dan, I saw the stories. Just horrible examples of humanity. To top it off today the administration is closing down the Coronavirus Task Force. The science and medical community is alarmed by the politicization of the effort to confront the pandemic. There is only leadership on the state level. History will not be kind on judging this period in US history nor the actions of many of our leaders.

May you and your loved ones be well.

Edit: no point in reasoning with some folks. Back to gaming!

Repi,

Why no, I never thought to read any sources I post!

The pictures I saw looked like average ordinary individuals – of all ages. No armed thugs.

Now, if you have ever seen a group from the "other side" protesting you get a clear picture they are not families, working folks, honour roll students, etc. Neither are they criminals, gangstars or their ilk (they don't protest).

Funding?!

What funding did they receive?! Gas money? Markers and cardboard to make their own signs?

This was not some type of "other side" organized protest where they rent tour buses to bring people in from far distances because there are so few of them in real life and provide food and professionally printed signs AND payment for going.

+100 Darthfozzywig!

I'm going to assemble some Warlord miniatures …

And go outside and enjoy the spring.

MrMyers, there are search apps called Google and Duck,DuckGo that can provide multiple sites as to the support received: see: link For one example. Yes, it was an Astro-turfed initial effort, but now the looneys have their orders clearly in mind. The latest protest I attended was about climate change in September of last year. I did see families,babies, honor roll students, and older people. I didn't see one AR-15, or any other firearms, no one was in tac gear, and it appeared most attendees were not threatening in any way.

Rent-a-thugs are plainly doing most of their business with one political faction these days.

I'm going to assemble some Warlord miniatures …

And go outside and enjoy the spring

I need to remember to combine those things more often: assembling/painting outside is a lot more enjoyable.

Wes,

Sometimes if is far easier to just stifle some folks rather than subject yourself to their ignorance and prejudices.

Yes, it is. It's just hard sometimes to believe some people are not acting in good faith.

"You're wrong. No, you're wrong and you're evil as well".

Why bother?

Sometimes if is far easier to just stifle some folks rather than subject yourself to their ignorance and prejudices.

No because I do not believe in censorship.

Plus nothing they say will ever get to me.

The pictures I saw looked like average ordinary individuals – of all ages. No armed thugs.

Well when you are trying to push an agenda you make sure to only show pictures that push that agenda.

Like trying to make the claim that everyone who was at one of those protest was armed to the teeth.

So you only show pictures of those with AR-15's (which by the way is a very lousy weapon and I would never own one).

Or just show the picture of someone screaming at the police.

Remember for most that all that is needed to push their agenda.

How can you tell someone is either losing an argument or unsure of their own? They accuse you of racism:

"have irrational expressions of either racism, fear, or hyperbolic paranoia"

a previous post on this thread. For me at least, I dismiss any further arguments by this person.

Apparently some conpirators re Corvid19 and anti vaccers are refusing the use of bandages, bandades, splints casts etc Apparently they all scientific fakes designed to stop natural healing An open wound is a healthy wound let nature take its course

Apparently some conpirators re Corvid19 and anti vaccers are refusing the use of bandages, bandades, splints casts etc Apparently they all scientific fakes designed to stop natural healing An open wound is a healthy wound let nature take its course.

Really!

Got any proof?

It's hilarious to read all the false rumors!

If there are any conspiracy theorists, it's these guys sitting in their parents' basements making this stuff up.

I think Redblack was being humorous, or ironic, or sarcastic or something like that.

I think all three.

Best medicine practiced by Gov. Whitmer was that as a result of those survivalists protesting at the State Capitol, she extended the Michigan lockdown by two weeks. Hilarious.

Well someone needs to be first on a new page.