"Top Coronavirus Model Predicts 100,000 Americans Dead" Topic

… By The End Of This Summer's First Wave

"A top coronavirus model is predicting that 100,000 Americans will have died from COVID-19 by the end of the summer – as the US death toll surpasses President Donald Trump's best case scenario of 60,000 deaths.

The MOBS model from the Network Science Institute at Northeastern University also estimates that there will be about 89,000 deaths by mid-May if stay-at-home orders remain in place.

That death toll would increase to over one million in an unmitigated scenario, according to the projections that are among those used by the CDC to forecast the pandemic…"

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Amicalement
Armand

Considering we were told that it would be 2+ million that is quite a change.

Well you did half-assed try and stop it.
But 100 000 seems a bit optimistic, it's like 65k now, many places have opened up again way to early.

We will definitely reach 100,000. Probably before the end of May. A quarter million by the end of the year. And that's only if we continue to take strong countermeasures. If we go back to business as usual then we might well reach that 2 million mark.

Here in Michigan our 3K+ deaths are confined mostly to 3-4 counties in SE Michigan. Overall in the USA The East coast NY-NJ account for a great chunk of US deaths. Density of population is a factor in spread of infectious diseases. IIRC the whole stay home program was to "flatten the curve" so as not to overwhelm health care facilities. This is happening. Of course you will get a spike as the people you forcibly (in some cases) kept home will finally contract the virus. BTW Detroit renovated a facility to house 1000 Covid 19 cases as overflow, they cut bact to 250 beds rapidly & yesterday announced that only 16 were there.
The work on a vaccine &/or meds is ongoing & needed obviously.

For some folks, the more American dead the happier they seem. More than just a little bit sick.

For some folks, the more American dead the happier they seem. More than just a little bit sick.

I have not heard nor read that anyone is "happier" that we have 65,000 dead and growing in this country. I am speechless that anyone would think that is the case.

Terry

Okay now I want the same type of chart showing deaths from the following:

Oh and I want what would be the average expect for each as well.

Heart Attacks

Renal Failure

Lung Cancer

Oh and a chart with the total deaths each day from whatever source.

Because you do know that on average around 7,400 to 7700+ individuals die each day in the United States. Oh and some months (those impacted by the Flu) this number can get into the mid 8000's.

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Because if you did do a chart for each of the above you will find that they would be far lower than what they should be. Because they are being counted as dying from COVID 19.

Oh and I would bet that the total per day would only have a slight up tick in the numbers.

Oh and the biggest cause of deaths is living because…

Everyone Dies

So until you can show the total story charts like the one above is just fulfilling the agenda of Fear & Panic.

Because most individuals in this country do not know that nearly 7500 individuals die each day so for them the above chart will be very misleading since that chart was built using bad data due to the deaths to COVID 19 being inflated.

No one is happy, many of us warned America about this while political leaders downplayed and lied about it and it's basically 1 American on this forum that continues to show his callousness towards those that die.

Opening up large cities like Atlanta, Las Vegas, Miami etc. While the infection rates continue to climb and thousands die each day is insanity.

I just seem like some posters are ready and willing to dance on American graves and not just during this most recent event.

I think VCarter has a point. As a Canuckistani, we hear a lot of anti-USA news and viewpoints but being close to the USA we can see first-hand how unrealistic said propaganda is and how agenda driven such view points are.

Now, it must also be remembered there are viewing wars being waged over headlines – it's all about the money. Follow the money trail.

Subscriptions, advertising, ratings (not for quality, I must add), etc, et al…

basically 1 American on this forum that continues to show his callousness towards those that die.

Nothing callous about it since in a normal year the United States will see around…

2.7+ Million Individuals

Dying each and every year that is base on actual history.

Remember around 7,500 each and every single day.

So thousands are expected to die each and every single day in this country and most are due to the three things that I posted above.

That is a given so this chart is misleading because just how many actually died from the above things and just because you have individuals counting anyone who dies right now as dying from COVID 19.

Heart Disease account for around 647,000 each year in the United States that is around 1773 each day.

So given the 38 days noted in the above chart that would have been around 67,374. Oh and many of those are being called out in the above chart.

The same goes for the most of the other areas that individuals usually end up dying from:

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So you might think it is cold hearted callousness but really it is just stone cold facts.

People day and by the thousands each and every single day.

It is around 150,000 for the world it is around 7,400 – 7,700+ for the United States…

Each and every single day.

Each and every single day.

But now, based on fear, panic, indoctrination, and a lack of criterion based critical thinking skills, people can be controlled and a response elicited.

So you keep saying, but by whom, why now and what response are ‘they' trying to elicit?

That's been repeated through countless threads on here.

But if you need a link…

TMP link

Conspiracy believers suffer from a form of narcissism. A refusal to accept reality and live in a world where they have no status.

Conspiracy theorists are pro gun I'm guessing.

So you keep saying, but by whom, why now and what response are ‘they' trying to elicit?

By who should be easy to see just look at what states are seeing protests and the "who" are the individuals being targeted by those protests.

Why now? That can be answered by one word…

November

What response? Why nothing short of total Power & Control. They know that the average individual is are not that smart and this time shows that just with a simple push it was easy to gain nearly complete control over most of them.

I order you to stay home – and millions do.

I order you to stay away from each other – and millions do.

They have used this to gain more Power and Control and at the same time trash the economy so badly that it will take a very long time to recover.

Over 30 million unemployed and that number is climbing.

Now they are pushing to get rid of all rents and any thing else.

This disease is nothing and for most they will not even know that they even had it.

Sure it is killing the old and the sick but given that this country sees around 7,500 dying everyday already what is the big deal.

We are all going to die and I know for most individuals they do not what to think about that but it going to happen.

So wmyers comment is correct since it was so easy to control millions individuals.

Though now some are pushing back on against their controls.

Yes, as they are mostly Right Wing. A few conspiracists in the Anti-vaccine and GMO camps are far left that believes in crystals and magic foods, but the vast majority are among the right. Almost all conspiracists believe in magical thinking as conspiracies are merely extensions of strongly held religious beliefs, ignorance of science, and acceptance of any narrative that they think supportive of their suspicions and fears, which are extensive.

Any man protesting his constitutional rights at a state capital feeling it necessary to wear tactical gear, carry an AK-15, and wear a camouflage or team red hat is NOT showing a strong sense of security about his life, or masculinity. They are evidencing irrational fears rooted, as Dan said above, in an inability to navigate successfully in the modern world and an extreme lack of self-esteem. They are easy marks for certain extremist groups and exploitive big-money donors.

They, and others in the mob, also illustrate a resort to intimidation and force as an answer to gradually losing the argument in public policy. Most Americans do not believe all this silly about being forced by oppressive government into being voiceless slaves. They are a small alienated minority who are lashing out like a frustrated child. The science of epidemiology is undoubtedly correct about policy. The legal underpinning of state action in a health emergency is firm and extensive. This also has political roots as their irrational actions are supported by a president who is also very much an expression of magical thinking.

They know that the average individual is are not that smart

So true.

The continued existence of Infowars, Epoch Times, OANN or other lunatic fringe sites peddling Q-Anon pedophiles in the Pizza Parlor, Bill Gates invented Corona, Corona came from a North Carolina lab and my favorite stupidity of the moment, 5G causes Corona, proves the continued robust presence of idiots among us.

Repiq,

If this was The Blue Fez I would answer, but its not.

5G does cause rapid battery loss.🤓. Just another factor in the modern world that scares the Neo-Luddites.

Repiq,

If this was The Blue Fez I would answer, but its not.

If he is allowed to make political claims, it might be fair to be able to counter them.

Mithmee, thanks for a straight answer to a simple question.

So what motive do all the Western European democracies (other than Sweden) have to impose even more draconian lockdowns than those being experienced in some states of the USA?

I would state a lot of it is fear.

Someone, somewhere (not many here are entitled to sit in on national security briefings and those who are would not be allowed to reveal what is discussed, presented and postulated upon) made statements and predictions this was going to be a LOT worse than it really is (was).

I think a lot of countries panicked. They feared the worst (ie bodies in the streets, overflowing hospitals, etc).

There has been talk of another devastating world-wide plague for decades (Malthusian-esque predictions of one every 100 years).

Fear makes people do irrational things. [I am sorry I have to add this, but due to the many personal attacks by a very few on here it, sadly, needs to be stated that asking questions is not an irrational act – questioning the response to this and the measures taken is not an act of fear or irrationality. That is dialogue and when those few people do not like the questions or statements of others, instead of respecting an opposing view point continually attack and belittle others by claiming they are making these statements out of "fear" – you few know who you are, I don't think I should have to provide links to your attacks.]

Being a politician also makes one (most of the time as they are professional politicians (meaning this is their only career they want)) think of being re-elected so they do what they can to save face (not admit their mistakes).

Special interest groups and political parties see opportunities to advance their personal political interests and jump on it.

We could add a list a mile long for examples of the last point!

I'd suggest that some Governments (eg: Germany, Austria, New Zealand) acted decisively rather than panicked – it's certainly revived the standing of Mutti Merkel in the former – though each of of the aforementioned countries had some advantages over others on which to capitalise. Planning for the worst once a crisis hits – like the (so far unused) Nightingale hospitals in the U.K, is never a stupid thing. But Merkel for one doesn't seem the sort to panic and risk damaging the German economy out of ‘fear', that's for sure.

What you suggest seems an incredibly well coordinated effort by a lot of very disparate groups in the USA (let alone all the other countries) to take advantage of a health crisis that wasn't even on the radar a couple of months ago

It has been generally accepted that there are good arguments, good counter arguments, and the need to treat opposing views with respect.

However, if those arguments are based on bad science, little or no provable data, are steeped in various forms of conspiratorial explanations, contradict known facts, and have irrational expressions of either racism, fear, or hyperbolic paranoia, then most reasonable men feel warranted in giving them little notice and treating them and their advocates as conduits of pure crap. No one owes such asshats any respect or deference. Ever.

No one owes such asshats any respect or deference. Ever.

Some of us remember what you've said in the past on the Blue Fez. Hoist on your own petard there!

Its always "them", somewhere in the shadows, pulling strings, controlling the economy, government, vaccinations, etc. No actual names, no explanation of how "they" do it, just an assertive statement that they do. "Trust me, I know something you don't."

Disagree and you're labelled a fool or fellow-traveler.

Never give verifiable facts, stand on science or behind something that can be proven or dis-proven. Just keep the conversation or discussion murky, try to swamp your opponent with lots of garbage and plow ahead ignoring any actual facts presented and keep talking (louder and louder) over everyone else.

The internet has given these minorities their own echo chambers where they can pump each other up as victims, spew thoughtless explanations of the world and how it works to their determent and convince themselves that they know the TRUTH and anyone who disagrees is either stupid (sheeple) or part of the dark forces that only they can perceive.

Dear editor, I make no apology for any remarks made on the Fez. They were all deserved and, in retrospect, Cassandra warnings. First there was the great purge of liberals, and then the great exodus over the last few years. Look who is left! It now is two or three people that post drivel and have driven off everyone with a touch of reason. Two people make 90% of the posts, and all but one foreigner has left. This didn't happen by accident. I hope this doesn't happen to the science board in a form of Gresham's law. The science board should be for science. Simple really.

No! It's 2.2 million; or 100,000 or 7

Nobody knows and I swear climate scientists are making these predictions now.

Let's see you spout that it's only flu, its only death, its all fine crap at the end of the year.

This is just the first wave and the dumb are already scrambling out of lockdown to express their "rights".

Literally Darwinsim in action.

Or is the Swedish model the correct one? WHO says so.

The lockdowns don't seem to have stopped the virus much, given the infection rates in California. And we now know the virus is much less dangerous than previously thought, unless you're in the vulnerable category.

Let's see what happens in places where they relax the lockdowns. Meanwhile, I'm in New York, we're locked down for the foreseeable future!

Please provide a source on the statement about WHO and it's date. Right now things are looking increasingly bad for Sweden, particularly compared to its neighbors. People will always vary on the economic impacts vs. death rate acceptability but the moral issue of utilitarianism vs. the fate of the vulnerable is a key one in defining who we are as a people. There is little question that the administration opts for arguing economic vs. health impacts as they run from coronavirus briefings toward propping up inchoate mob actions.

The lock downs have certainly slowed the growth of infections. They were never intended to stop it, but to buy time for researchers and health teams to cope with its growth and to develop adequate treatments and vaccines. At over 1 million infected in the US( the worst in the world) and nearly 70,000 dead, which is very probably an undercount, in a period of 2-3 months, there is NO indication that this is over, and with relaxation of restrictionsit is widely expected the rate will go up.

The models have varied, but, if anything, they are being scaled up not down at the moment. 100,000 dead would be seen now as a minimum by Summer for deaths. It will spread less quickly in rural areas with less density, but the impact will still be great. The meat packing plants are the canaries in the mine in that regard.

There is too much we have no sure knowledge of yet concerning this virus, but what we do know is not indicative of a quick resolution, or a return to normal any time soon.

I expect there will be an uptick in cases over the next few weeks as restrictions are loosened. I do not have the same evangelical faith that both sides of this issue have expressed here.

We will see. The real question is what lessons will be learned by all this.

As I said before, I am grateful that Sweden took the course they did as a control group for the western world.

Even the WHO seems to think Sweden's actions are what the world should be following for the future.

Dr Mike Ryan, the WHO's top emergencies expert, asked about Sweden's strategy of shunning lockdowns and allowing most schools and businesses to remain open, told a virtual news conference on Wednesday: "If we are to reach a ‘new normal', in many ways Sweden represents a future model."

"What it has done differently is that it really, really has trusted its own communities to implement that physical distancing," he said, adding that Sweden had put in place a "very strong public health policy".

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VCarter, I agree that the range of national responses is of great value in helping look at lessons and in future I would prefer to see a Swedish approach become the default. However, that relies upon the population trusting that their government has their best interests at heart and is equipped to deal with the situation. As a said around a month ago, I would hope that this stress test of capabilities is a wake up call, particularly after a number of false alarms perhaps encouraged complacency.

As I also said when the Taiwanese approach was held up, these rely upon the vast majority of society having such consideration for others, that they follow recommendations, minimising risk voluntarily. As we have seen both on here and elsewhere, sadly that's not a given right now, despite an incredible amount of goodwill by many.

In the UK the experience does seem very variable – in my locality cases and deaths have been very low, but it's not a big Island that I live on. I have many medic friends all over and whilst some have seen little increase in traffic (and even a reduction in A&E visits), others have been very busy and often re-deployed to meet needs. Given the stated aim of the lockdown was to avoid the NHS falling over, it appears successful on the macro scale, but there have been hot spots with real pressure. The published UK figures highlight this varied picture.

I'm no fan of lockdown right now from a personal perspective, I think mistakes have been made on the testing front and certain other preparations should have been made, but I understand why the decision was made. I also think that we do now need to get on with opening things up in a manageable manner and planning on how to live with the situation. I've noticed an increase in adverts with 'Stay Home, Stay Safe' which I think is counter-productive at this point.

We now need to manage risk rather than avoid it, although it will be several months (particularly after any 2nd wave) before useful data can be brought to bear on planning longer-term and I do hope that the right questions will also be asked before assuming that there is a default option for managing future pandemics. Even beyond societal behaviours, structures may well make it difficult to apply the same approach across a wide area, as we saw in Europe.

As for cities like New York and London, their very nature as densely populated areas, with many international visitors and high commuter figures may well require a different approach to other parts of a country at times. Their impact on surrounding areas is also less common in mainland Europe.

Mr. Myers, Several things:

1. Dr. Ryan does not speak for WHO.

2. He is referring to a future model after this crisis is over.

3. He also points out that Swedes are homogeneous and lack great political or racial diversity. The economic diversity in Sweden is also minimized by strong social economic supports lacking in many countries,including the US. This means they are far more capable of community response.

4. He also references a strong public health program. This is definitively lacking in the US, as is the leadership to implement it. Testing in Sweden is on a per capita basis better as is tracing.

Other than that I'm not sure it's much of endorsement for the obvious current conditions in the US. I do find it amusing that people on the Right who often Pooh-Pooh comparisons of US to Sweden on economic, social and health issues as being too small, too white, and too homogeneous are eager to draw comparisons on this topic. I would point out this isn't over yet and we shall see what the ultimate comparison with other equivalent Scandinavian countries ends up being. I'm sure there are a number of Norwegians and Finns that are even more happy than ever they're not Swedes!

PS, Mr Myers, why do you never comment on topics from a Canadian perspective? Hardly a word on Canadian politics. Quite odd.

Hardly a word on Canadian politics. Quite odd.

Please read the Forum rules.

Yup want to discuss that subject you need to be over on The Blue Fez.

Can't go there , I'm afraid, because of the moronavirus..

You're really leaving yourself open to some witty repartee, with that one…

Mike Ryan is a WHO official. He's not a "loose cannon" in that position.

Bruce Aylward is also a WHO official and there is no way he will say anything that does not represent official WHO positions.

So yes, Ryan does speak for the WHO.

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I stand ready for your witty repartee…

Being an official of an organization and expressing your opinion is quite apart from expressing the official views of that organization. Have you ever been in a large organization, Mr. Myers , or even Saskatchewan?

Do Dr. Fauci or Dr. Birx speak for the White House? They both offered up some opinions quite different from those offered up by the President just this weekend.

In this case you have largely missed the point of Ryan's opinions (see above) and then quote some extraneous article about Aylward that mystifies me as to its relevance. Links usually have a purpose, however misguided. That one is simply quizzically vague. What do you suppose it means? Inquiring minds want to know!

Do Dr. Fauci or Dr. Birx speak for the White House?

No but both to them are enjoying their 15 minutes of fame.

Oh and both really do not have a clue.

Is it that they don't have a clue, or are they being manipulated by ‘them' or are indeed active conspirators in the scenario you outlined?

I note that Trump last night said the new expected top number is 100,000 deaths not the 65,000 he previously touted. That's probably still short of the mark as we are already at 70,000 with social distancing being loosened.

Italy announced this weekend that special "immunity licenses" indicating that the person has had COVID-19 and recovered and may go to work will NOT be issued, as it appears that such people may not be immune to re-infection. This is a blow to the herd immunity argument.

One by one the heartfelt beliefs of the deniers are falling by the wayside.

I'm sure that news brings joy to some folks.

For your consideration:

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There are always going to be a tiny, tiny group of people that may get joy from death, VCarter, but they're not worth continually mentioning.

But 'on this thread', we get a comment like:
"Sure it is killing the old and the sick but given that this country sees around 7,500 dying everyday already what is the big deal."
Callous or what!