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"SARS-CoV-2's R0 might be 5.7 (95% CI 3.8–8.9)" Topic


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618 hits since 9 Apr 2020
©1994-2020 Bill Armintrout
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Martin from Canada09 Apr 2020 4:50 a.m. PST

link


Abstract

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 is the causative agent of the 2019 novel coronavirus disease pandemic. Initial estimates of the early dynamics of the outbreak in Wuhan, China, suggested a doubling time of the number of infected persons of 6–7 days and a basic reproductive number (R0) of 2.2–2.7. We collected extensive individual case reports across China and estimated key epidemiologic parameters, including the incubation period. We then designed 2 mathematical modeling approaches to infer the outbreak dynamics in Wuhan by using high-resolution domestic travel and infection data. Results show that the doubling time early in the epidemic in Wuhan was 2.3–3.3 days. Assuming a serial interval of 6–9 days, we calculated a median R0 value of 5.7 (95% CI 3.8–8.9). We further show that active surveillance, contact tracing, quarantine, and early strong social distancing efforts are needed to stop transmission of the virus.

Martin from Canada09 Apr 2020 6:13 a.m. PST

In other words, this might be much more infectious than previously thought to be in the absence of physical distancing.

Personal logo ochoin Supporting Member of TMP In the TMP Dawghouse09 Apr 2020 6:26 a.m. PST

This research underlines the fact that OZ & NZ are truly the "Lucky Countries";

YouTube link

The rate at which cases increase on average each day has fallen over the past fortnight from just over 13% to around 2%. However, it is too soon to tell whether this trend will be sustained.

We remain, not subject to FEAR, but hopeful.

clibinarium09 Apr 2020 6:28 a.m. PST

That's troubling. But R0 values aren't inherent to the virus- they are a function of the viruses properties together with external factors like the practices of the population of the hosts, if I understand it correctly. So as you say with social distancing being observed the R0 is lower, though perhaps it would suggest its more communicable than we thought so the R0 during distancing and lockdown might be above what was hoped. It's hard to predict as there are many variables, but I guess the data is being collated currently.

Mithmee09 Apr 2020 7:19 a.m. PST

We collected extensive individual case reports across China

Really!, China allowing others to collect data in China.

I think not.

Oh and coming from the CDC as well.

Means totally disregard this article completely.

Appears to be just another snow job that they are trying to push out to keep the Fear & Panic up and keep this going and going and going.

Condottiere09 Apr 2020 7:56 a.m. PST

Really!, China allowing others to collect data in China.

Actually, it's true. You might want to do a little research before posting blatantly false statements.


Appears to be just another snow job that they are trying to push out to keep the Fear & Panic up and keep this going and going and going.

There you go again with the *FEAR* thing. BTW, who is "they"? The current administration?

I can see you never even read the article, let alone the abstract.

Martin from Canada09 Apr 2020 8:02 a.m. PST

That's about it clibinarium.

Personal logo ochoin Supporting Member of TMP In the TMP Dawghouse09 Apr 2020 1:18 p.m. PST

The US is lucky to have a real leader in Dr Fauci. He said, "Having been through other serious issues, particularly the very painful early years of HIV/AIDs – when people talk about conspiracy theories, you will always have conspiracy theories when you have a very challenging public-health crisis, they are nothing but distractions."

It boggles the brain that some people would play politics with people suffering & dying & the only way they get away with it is their audience is unwilling, or unable, to see the obvious truth.

I would be ashamed to dismiss the 17,000 dead American victims of the pandemic because of some toxic & basically nonsensical "theory".

Condottiere09 Apr 2020 2:42 p.m. PST

@Ochoin: Amen.

Mithmee09 Apr 2020 3:05 p.m. PST

Yes but how many really were killed by COVID 19 or did most die from their underlying health issues.

My money is on the latter.

As for Doctor Fauci, he is an idiot.

China is doing things to cover this up so anything coming from them would be suspect.

Doctors have gone missing.

link

As have others, so there is no truth in any of that report.

The head of WHO head is beholden to China and is in their back pocket.

Oh I am not playing politics, nope I just an individual who sent years in Military Intelligence and can see & smell when something is not right and any report this soon on COVID 19 would be highly suspect.

Personal logo ochoin Supporting Member of TMP In the TMP Dawghouse09 Apr 2020 4:39 p.m. PST

My money is on the former. And a safe bet, too.

Fauci deserves a Nobel Prize. Your judgement of him is unwarranted, unsubstantiated and nonsensical. I'm sorry that his wisdom challenges your odd beliefs but as the situation continues to erode, your position, which was always untenable, is non-existent. As virtually everyone on the planet would agree, you are wrong.

At first, I found your assertions to be disturbing but now I believe they're just talk. Keep safe, Mithmee.

Personal logo McKinstry Supporting Member of TMP Fezian09 Apr 2020 6:30 p.m. PST

As for Doctor Fauci, he is an idiot.

Columbia Med School. Originally appointed by Ronald Reagan and has served NIH since 1984.Winner of the following awards including the Lasker, probably the highest honor in medicine. Served and advised every President from Reagan through Trump.
Awards received -
Maxwell Finland Award (1989)
Ernst Jung Prize (1995)
Lasker Award (2007)
Medal of Freedom (2008)
Robert Koch Prize (Gold, 2013)

And your medical qualifications are?

I just an individual who sent years in Military Intelligence

Certainly a cogent and persuasive argument that the term represents the very definition of an oxymoron.

korsun0 Supporting Member of TMP10 Apr 2020 4:47 a.m. PST

link

Seems military intelligence noticed something in November 2019.
Also seems no-one pushed it out to create fear and panic so I would argue it is not a case of creating something for the sake of it. One could also argue, who gains from a false sense of panic? It seems most governments, economies and businesses are in a world of hurt, including China who just can't admit it because it would cause questions amongst their populace.
Perhaps the real reason China came out and admitted they should not have told people to shut up about it, was because 40-46000 died as has been reported (veracity not confirmed) and this calmed their internal questioners. It is easy for them to deny that toll to the outside world.
As I have said before, I want this to be over, I may not agree with practices undertaken but those with a better education than I, with a better scientific understanding than I, have made this call and in Australia where people will complain about ANYTHING they don't like, very, very few are questioning what is being said. To me, knowing the population of my country, the willingness to do what we are told is a telling indictment of what people believe.

respectfully yours,
Jon.

Personal logo T Callahan Supporting Member of TMP10 Apr 2020 8:23 a.m. PST

One of the statistics thrown around here and other threads is the flu is more lethal. Our local TV station looked up the numbers of deaths for the COVID-19 vs seasonal flu using the CDC, Illinois Dept of Health, and Missouri Department of Health and Senior Services.

Nationally from the first week in January to March 21: "5,540 people died in the U.S. from the flu. In contrast, the CDC reported 12,064 people in our country have died from COVID-19 so far this year."

Illinois "The CDC reported 122 deaths from the flu from January to March 21, 2020. As of April 6, the Illinois Department of Health reported 380 deaths from COVID-19.
So, in the state of Illinois, COVID-19 deaths outnumber flu deaths in 2020."

Missouri: "The CDC reported 136 deaths from the flu from January to March 21, 2020.
The Missouri Department of Health reported 53 COVID-19 deaths as of April 6.
In the state of Missouri, flu deaths do outnumber COVID-19 deaths so far in 2020."

Terry

darthfozzywig Supporting Member of TMP10 Apr 2020 9:09 a.m. PST

Yes but how many really were killed by COVID 19 or did most die from their underlying health issues.

Some folks seem to misunderstand "underlying health issues."

If you're in a serious car accident and have underlying health issues, you're chances of survival are much lower than if you are in otherwise good health. You may die, but it wasn't the "underlying health issue" that killed you, it was the car accident that put you in that situation.

You can say "well, he might have had massive trauma in the accident, but it was his lack of cardiovascular fitness that *really* killed him," but that doesn't change the fact that he is (a) dead and (b) would be alive if it weren't for having been hit by a truck.

Personal logo McKinstry Supporting Member of TMP Fezian10 Apr 2020 9:42 a.m. PST

Our fire/ems department is very rural and as a consequence, we work closely with our (and the next county over) Coroner.

Underlying conditions are not the cause of death if the patient dies of respiratory arrest while infected with Covid-19 as proven by test.

The underlying condition will be reported as cause of death if a cardiac patient goes into cardiac arrest independent of respiratory failure. In fact, due to Covid-19 a cardiac patient is more likely to die of cardiac arrest long before they reach the hospital for tests as doing CPR in full PPE makes it less effective and the guidelines for AED use don't really leave you the time to fight as long as you otherwise might.

No death is counted as Covid-19 without a positive test.

No death certificate can list Covid-19 as cause without a positive test.

Because the US has horribly botched test kit production and availability (including swabs and reagents) and to this moment tests are still being rationed, quite a few Covid-19 deaths are still being reported as pneumonia, COPD or CHF.

Our first local victim was an 83 year old with lung cancer but stable and at least in temporary remission. He may well have passed in 6 months but he did not get the chance. He died with 24 hours of admission. His death was initially classified as pneumonia and only later reclassified as Covid-19.

We will never truly determine the total mortality of the virus as many of the casualties in the first 6 weeks would not/could not be tested.

Mithmee10 Apr 2020 11:30 a.m. PST

If you're in a serious car accident and have underlying health issues, you're chances of survival are much lower than if you are in otherwise good health. You may die, but it wasn't the "underlying health issue" that killed you, it was the car accident that put you in that situation.

Yes and if your head was crushed in that accident and you were known to have COVID 19.

They would put you down as dying from COVID 19 and not getting your head crushed in.

As to the 83 year old with Lung Cancer what Stage was he at?

Stage 1 or was it Stage 4 or 5 because if it was the latter he was going to die.

But they have already tried to put certain deaths down as COVID 19 but were called out for them.

You see when it comes down to Statistics it is all about the numbers.

Statistics allows you to lie with numbers and that is actually what they are doing.

If I put down that 800 out of 8000 died by COVID 19 instead of 80 it makes it look worst than it actually is.

Remember that around 150,000 individuals die each and every day.

link

They are upset that they cannot put every death down to COVID 19.

Let it put it this way we have have far worst Pandemics and not once did we do what we have done this time.

Did not arrest or fine individuals for being outside.

Did not force the shutdown of nearly every single business.

Did not spread the Fear and Panic like they have done this time.

Most of you are okay with all of this I and many others are not.

wmyers In the TMP Dawghouse10 Apr 2020 12:14 p.m. PST

Most of you are okay with all of this

It's pretty clear that most people are not okay with this. Hence the reason the media has to continually push the danger concept. (and use physical force and the threat of force to try to ensure compliance)

There are a few individuals who are louder than most.

They are only a few.

There is the term "the silent majority" for a reason.

Many countries are using far different approaches (ie Taiwan) and not shutting their countries down and restricting the inherent rights of people.

Personal logo McKinstry Supporting Member of TMP Fezian10 Apr 2020 12:21 p.m. PST

link

Taiwan responded strongly, quickly and much more aggressively than the US.

link

Denmark shut things down early and it worked. As in the US where it is beginning to work. As in South Korea where it worked.

Not shutting it down lead to the US have the dubious distinction of being the worst in cases, getting very close and likely leading in both actual deaths and per capita deaths and despite literally months, lagging way behind in per capita testing. Were number LAST!!!!!

tabletopwargamer10 Apr 2020 1:19 p.m. PST

If the "inherent rights of people" are to be dumb enough to ignore spreading a virus to carry on doing what they want, them it's a good job those rights are temporarily limited.

This virus is truly showing the scale of ignorance out there.

tabletopwargamer10 Apr 2020 1:40 p.m. PST

Mithmee have some cold, hard, facts.

link

Personal logo McKinstry Supporting Member of TMP Fezian10 Apr 2020 2:12 p.m. PST

They are upset that they cannot put every death down to COVID 19.

Can you supply a shred of factual proof?

They would put you down as dying from COVID 19 and not getting your head crushed in.

Again, shred of proof?

Personal logo McKinstry Supporting Member of TMP Fezian10 Apr 2020 2:21 p.m. PST

As to the 83 year old with Lung Cancer what Stage was he at?

Stage 1 or was it Stage 4 or 5 because if it was the latter he was going to die.

You did note I used the term remission?

Yes, he probably was going to die at some point but not in the 24 hour period in which Covid-19 killed him. He had a wife ,children and grandchildren that would argue vociferously that Covid-19 killed him and would desperately want that 6 months, 2 years, however long he had without Covid-19.

Basha Felika10 Apr 2020 2:25 p.m. PST

And who benefits from this conspiracy? And was the release of the virus part of said conspiracy or did ‘they' seize the opportunity, and if so, why now?

By the way, if anything, the number of deaths being officially reported in the U.K. is being underestimated as it only counts those that die while in hospital – anyone that dies ‘in the community' such as residents of care homes are not (yet) included in the total.

Personal logo McKinstry Supporting Member of TMP Fezian10 Apr 2020 2:35 p.m. PST

If the "inherent rights of people" are to be dumb enough to ignore spreading a virus to carry on doing what they want, them it's a good job those rights are temporarily limited.

Agreed. Society has an inherent right to be protected from people too dumb or selfish to feel aggrieved at not being allowed to spread disease to that society. We eliminate rabid animals, arrest drunk drivers and lock up anyone culpable in releasing a toxic agent in public. All human societies have a history of protecting their populace from the machinations of those that would do harm either from malice or simple ignorance.

Mithmee10 Apr 2020 4:44 p.m. PST

Mithmee have some cold, hard, facts.

Those are not Facts

Mithmee10 Apr 2020 4:52 p.m. PST

If the "inherent rights of people" are to be dumb enough to ignore spreading a virus

First, Well before you can spread a disease who need to have it and by their number that is not a lot of individuals so the chances of getting it in the first place…

Slim to None

Second, I do not get the Flu, I do not get sick for a 63 year old male I am very healthly.

One thing though I do find it very interesting that groups/organizations (WHO, CDC etc…) are coming out with reports and studies so quickly stating that this is a killer and that China did not recreate it.

Very interesting since it usually takes far longer to gather the data and then study that data before issuing any articles or studies.

But they keep on churning them out.

Now that gets my Military Intelligence mind to thinking…

Why?

Personal logo McKinstry Supporting Member of TMP Fezian10 Apr 2020 6:15 p.m. PST

Those are not Facts

They are hard numbers unlike say

They would put you down as dying from COVID 19 and not getting your head crushed in.
which is an example of a totally unsupported statement.

Military Intelligence

Classic oxymoron.

I do not get sick

a) Please look up the definition of Asymptomatic.
b) Are you claiming to be other than human? Otherwise that statement is physiologically impossible.

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