"80,000 Die of the Flu in USA" Topic

An estimated 80,000 Americans died of flu and its complications last winter.

The director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Dr. Robert Redfield, revealed the total in an interview Tuesday night with The Associated Press.

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Stop panicking and calm the ____ down. More people are going to die because you wouldn't let them go to work than they will from the virus.

On the front page of today's Vancouver Province read 4 fatalities in BC from COVID-19. Add that to another senior citizen in Ontario and that makes a grand total of 5 deaths in Canada. These are all elderly people in care homes.

In 2018 CTV reported that "As of Jan. 13, there have been 20,349 lab-confirmed flu cases, 2,168 hospitalizations and 82 deaths so far this season, according to the Public Health Agency of Canada." In 2018 we had 82 deaths from the flu in Canada and in 2020 we have had 5. That is a significant decrease. This Communist iron curtain attack on small business needs to come to an end. The health board has no right to shut down a local business in this situation.

If the Queen was to address the nation on this matter, we know what she would say. She'd say best foot forward. Roll up your sleeves and get to work.

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LOL

This problem will be self-correcting.

Yes, totally normal…

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Careful Gunfreak, one might accidentally puncture certain TMPer's the hermetically sealed media ecosystem and be accused of "thinly veiled attacks" and "causes division and creates animosity on the Board"

Yeah, but the chinese virus is filling up the panic bus where the regulaar old flu just kills many more, dut doesn't have the media induced panic.

Luckily, the US health care system is flexible enough to handle any situation, unless you live in Baltimore.

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Nowhere near enough reserve capacity.

From Italy
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Yes, most people who catch this will survive. Yes, people under 45 will probably be fine. But right now, doctors across Northern Italy have to choose between who gets the respirator and lives, and who does not, and dies. Italy's health system, for all its shortcomings – the long waits for certain tests, some aging buildings, the sometimes crowded hospital wards – is among the best-performing in the Western world. A 2017 report by the World Health Organization, for example, reported that Italian health care has among the lowest mortality rates in Europe, and a strong acute-care sector. And yet this virus has overwhelmed the health system of one of the richest areas of the European Union.

Statistics change daily as the hospitals scramble to build capacity. On March 12, there were only 137 intensive-care beds open for new coronavirus patients in all of Lombardy; the region is home to 10 million people, and as of this writing, 16,220 people have tested positive for the disease. Depending on how many coronavirus patients go in or out of the hospitals on any given day, if you have a chronic condition or a heart attack or are in a car crash, you might not be able to access care.

Writing this from Italy, I am also writing to you from your own future. From our state of emergency, we have been watching the crisis unfolding in the United States with a terrible sense of foreboding. Please stop waiting for others to tell you what to do; stop blaming the government for doing too much, or too little. We all have actions we can take to slow the spread of the disease – and ensuring that your own household has enough canned goods and cleaning supplies is not enough. You can do a lot more. You should do a lot more. Stay away from restaurants, gyms, libraries, movie theaters, bars and cafes, yes.

Time will tell. I'm not sure who I find more disturbing, the folk who say nothing will happen (as I believed at first) or the ones who gleefully prediction massive American casualties.

or the ones who gleefully prediction massive American casualties.

I haven't see any of that, but what I've seen is grim expectation of the worst and hoping for the best.

But the worst was never going to happen and so far the basic normal Flu has killed far more individuals then this has or will.

Best case this is Y2K: a crisis overcome by the hard work of educated people who did such a good job that the ignorant think it was "media hysteria" *becuase* a crisis was averted.

80,000 died of flu, out of how many millions got the flu? (CDC is estimating that there were 36-51,000,000 flu cases and 22-55,000 died this 2019-2020 season).

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Standard reports of flu deaths is that it averages around 1% (above link would appear to show that the death rate was a lot lower though.

What we now have is a new "flu" that appears to have a kill rate of 2-3% (hard to know as we don't know how many people actually have gotten it and the percentage of deaths caused).

So, just for the sake of discussion, if 80 million Americans catch this new "flu", then:

death rate at 1% is 80,000
death rate at 1.5% is 120,000
death rate at 2% is 160,000
death rate at 2.5% is 200,000
death rate at 3% is 240,000

Not really hard to see that this is a simple way to project actual deaths.

Difficult issue is that due to there not being enough tests, we don't know what the pool of sick actually number, how fast it is spreading or where the "hot" spots are. Reports are that there are about 90,000 or so ICU beds in this country out of about a million hospital beds in total.

Additional factors include a known shortage of medical equipment (ventilators and respirators, as well as medical aid such as proper masks and such for doctors and nurses), as well as if there are enough ICU beds if the disease "spikes" (note the 200 plus rural hospitals that closed down over the past few years just to point out challenges), as well as the fact that it appears many ICU beds are needed just for the seriously sick, not just those that may die.

Hopefully all goes well, the disease does not spread widely and the death rate is low, but the facts appear to challenge that scenario.

What Darth Fozzywig said. Already seen the Y2K was a hoax, so is this" posts on twitter.

Dan, I think you forgot to carry a zero. 1% of 80 Million is 800k and so on.

The "good" news is that the pandemic is largely being taken seriously now. I note the US has moved from "hoax" to "war".

Better late than never.

Winston Churchill* old adage that "Americans will always do the right thing, only after they have tried everything else." comes to mind.

*However the provenience of this quote is suspect and isn't liked to a direct recording/writing of Winston Churchill. link

What we now have is a new "flu" that appears to have a kill rate of 2-3% (hard to know as we don't know how many people actually have gotten it and the percentage of deaths caused).

Yes there is the rub since "They" are using a far smaller number in order to make this look like a far big problem than it actually is.

From the experts they have stated that 80%+ will either have very minor issues or will never know that they actually have it.

But if you decide to not use the real numbers you can make it look like it is a far bigger problem than it actually is.

In the end this will have a less than 1% fatality rate.

It will not come any where near what the Flu kills every single year in this country.

But for those of you who want to buy into their claims go right ahead because that is your right.

10% of Americans catch the flu each year. That's roughly 32,000,000 people. Of those, on the average, .1% die each year. That's 32,000. So if 80,000 died last year out of 32,000,000, then last years mortality rate is .25%.

Compare that with some initial figures of Covid-19 infections in China. 80,000 people were infected. 2,000 people died. That's a mortality rate of 3.75%.

Italy figures are worse with 41000 infected and 2400 have died. A mortality rate of 8.29%.

Like the flu, the deaths skew toward the old and the people with underlying immunity or respiratory conditions. That seems to be where the similarities end.

So, yeah. Because the number of people getting infected is low, you could say you are less likely to die. But we know very little still about this virus and if we don't keep social distancing, things could get much worse.

It's not a numbers game. People that have lost loved ones from the virus certainly don't. If you get it, you could be in a world of hurt. You may think you don't have any underlying conditions. You don't want to find out the hard way that you do.

No the number of "REPORTED" cases are low.

The actual number of cases are far higher since most (over 80%) did not even know they have it.

Thus what you got are inflated fatality rates.

Take that 80,000 cases and hit it with a factor or 10-15 times mores and that 3.75% drops way under 1%. It would be the same with Italy's 41,000.

But they like using the far lower number since that helps push their Agendas and drives the fear.

There's no evidence the number of cases are far higher, at least not in norway. We've tested over 40k and some 1800 have it.

Must be comforting that the mysterious "they" is orchestrating and controlling this global event. That's a heckuva deep deep state.

No the number of "REPORTED" cases are low.

And woe to the unlucky ones that get it.

You keep on doing what you are doing. I'm "sure" you'll be "fine" for some value of fine.

There's no evidence the number of cases are far higher, at least not in norway. We've tested over 40k and some 1800 have it.

Then they haven't tested the right individuals but since the ones who have probably had it did not even know they did since it did nothing to them.

Must be comforting that the mysterious "they" is orchestrating and controlling this global event. That's a heckuva deep deep state.

Yes it is and if you do not know who "they" are well you are not following the news because it is easy to determine who "they" are, really easy.

Uh huh. :)

@ dathfozzywig.

Excellent. We've all been thinking this but too polite to level the obvious accusation.

Canadian population: 37600000
Suspected and Confirmed Covid19 cases: 1000
Deaths attributed to Covid19: 13
Percentage of suspected and confirmed cases: 0.0000265957
Percentage of Canadian deaths : 0.00000034574468

Source: CBC

The "good" news is that the pandemic is largely being taken seriously now. I note the US has moved from "hoax" to "war".

Better late than never.

Sadly this is what happens when someone only sits in front of the mass media (and believes what they are told…).

Reality:

YouTube link

YouTube link

Two, unsubstantiated YouTube videos? I can't necessarily blame you for not realising these are worthless. Indeed, they don't support your "argument" but harm it.

This is a genuine emergency and if you have been down playing it for political motives , you have committed a grave wrong.

Two, [sic] unsubstantiated YouTube videos?

Yes, two news reports that you do not like interviewing people in an airport and they are "unsubstantiated" …

Like who "substantiates" what you have been watching? Like posting Rolling Stone articles as scientific proof. Seriously …

you have committed a grave wrong

?!

In some italian towns the military is out not only controlling the curfew, but delivering and bringing out caskets to homes with dead. Sure just like the flu…

"Grave" both literally and metaphorically. Bad advice will get people sick and even dead. An apology and retraction is the decent thing for you to do.

It is complicated to explain the process to accreditate and value sources to anyone without an academic background. If you PM me, I'll do my best to explain and to direct you to some basic works in historiography.
A small and random sample of opinions will invariably be skewed and worthless.

Suffice it to say that Vox Popul is definitely not Vox Deus ( read Voltaire, preferably in the original French).

This, as anyone of sense knows, is a genuine emergency and if you have been down playing it

That is because this is a "Manufactured" emergency and you and many others have brought into their climate of "FEAR".

We have not and know that this is not as serious as they are trying to claim.

They are using a smaller set of numbers and making claims that will never happen, but you totally believe their claims.

50% of Californian will not get this disease.

The Fatality Rate in the End will be arounf 1% or lower.

The United States it is already doing that.

Under 20,000 cases (confirmed not the real number since that is higher) and around 279 fatalities.

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Oh and I doubt that we will have 70,000 cases by next Friday like this individual claims.

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Now I know that we more than likely have already had over that number but they like using a far lower number so they got 6 days to confirmed another 50,000+ cases.

Since Los Angeles County has given up on testing, we will never know how many cases they have there.

Err on the side of prudence and caution. Protect seniors and the vulnerable.

Taiwan is taking a very different approach:

Both Taiwan and Canada reported their first presumptive cases of COVID-19 within days of each other, but their experience of life with the pandemic has been quite different. Children in Taiwan are still in school, restaurants are open and there's no shortage of protective supplies.

It's almost life as usual for the Lin family of Taiwan during the coronavirus pandemic — with a few noticeable exceptions.

"We didn't worry too much," said Leeli Chang, who lives with her husband, Terry Lin, and her daughter, Peggy, 8, in a suburb of Taipei.

The family, like many in Taiwan, continue to go to work, to school and out shopping as normal since the COVID-19 epidemic.

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Looks like the Taiwanese reacted seriously early on.
"Taiwan had the foresight to create a large stockpile of face masks; other countries or regions might now consider this as part of future pandemic plans," said Dr Benjamin Cowling, a professor at the school of public health at the University of Hong Kong.
The Taiwanese government took over production of surgical masks early on, banning exportation and eventually bringing in soldiers to help with increased production. They allocated certain amounts to retailers and lowered prices to the equivalent of about 24 cents Cdn.
"We could have done all this but we were told it was a hoax"

"Luckily, the US health care system is flexible enough to handle any situation"

This has to be ironic?

If not you're in for incredible shock in about 3 eeks.

The astonishing attitudes to a global pandemic that's only just warming up are literally incredible.

I think this demonstrates the difference in mindsets:

It's shaping up to be a different experience for families in Taiwan compared to their Canadian counterparts.

"I think that every time we watch the news, it gives us the confidence, like 'you don't need to worry too much,'" said Chang, when asked about whether she and her family are concerned about the virus.

In Canada, one family is trying to keep fears at bay.

"We're really working hard to keep that out of the home." said Louise Gleeson, when asked a similar question about her family's level of anxiety over the virus. "As a parent, I'm really trying to stay grounded, because if I let myself go too far ahead in my thinking, I do feel the anxiety creep up."

It's not what is happening, that is making things spiral out of control, it's what people THINK has been happening.

"It's not what is happening, that is making things spiral out of control, it's what people THINK has been happening"
I see what you are trying to say but the culture of the Chinese is one of their strengths in this case. That is ingrained. You can't expect the West to react the same way. It's like expecting a cat to act like a dog.

I meant how the media is shaping thoughts and behaviours.

This virus is presented in different ways in different countries and that directly affects mass public perception (and therefore behaviours).

It's not just the media shaping thoughts and behaviours.

Political leaders are more than capable of muddying the waters on their own.

I find this discussion a little surreal.

Rather than exagerating the threat, I would expect government to cover-up and down play the threat.

As expected, this post did not age well.

I suspect a couple of the people who should be ashamed are out licking doorknobs to "show the media how wrong they are."

It looks like Singapore – which had a fairly quick response because they got hammered by SARS a dozen years ago – is having a second, and much larger wave of infections as students return from the UK.

Everyone's seen the pictures of the Italian Army transporting coffins from areas where they have literally run out of room in the morgues. The Italians would be happy to take issue with "its all media hysteria folks", but they're understandably a bit busy right now.

And no, L.A. County did not "give up on testing" as someone said. They ran out of the limited numbers they had as the demand exceeded supply. Clearly someone has been propagandized because I can tell you that it was not even remotely true.

Oh, and "media hysteria"? Here's your numbers – with sources – and they're artificially low because the widespread testing is still ramping up.

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Are you suggesting the fatality rate is artificially low?

Mithmee has been stating all along the rates are artificially low. So you are arguing for that, then.

1000 is far from 80,000.

Time will tell. Only then will we see how this post ages.

Hopefully the virus ends soon.

wmyers, where did you get that from Wyatt's post?

He's pointing out that due to a lack of testing kits the number of confirmed deaths due to CV19 will be lower than otherwise.

Again though, the death rate right now is far less relevant that the R0 number and the caseload which your healthcare system is having to deal with (and will likely have to deal with for months on end).

Mithmee predicted the number of cases by Friday would be nowhere near 70k. When it reaches that sometime today, would you concede that actual numbers mght be worth looking at rather than guesses?

Thing is we probably reached 70,000 cases weeks ago and the actual number of cases here in the states is not 68,802.

No we probably blew by 500,000 cases already but we will never know since those other cases were so mild the individuals who got it never even knew that they had it.

But when you only account for a select few you can over hype and spread the Fear way easier.

They know that more individuals have had this and even have stated that the number of confirmed case the number that are mild are 95%.

They are playing with numbers and spreading Fear.

Plus many individuals have made claims which none have happened or were they ever going to happen.

'Oh and another so called expert made claims that that number of cases in this country will be 70,000 or more by next Friday. Time will tell the truth and I do not think that it will be anywhere near that number.

Actually I know that there probably has been already more than that many but since they like using only confirmed cases they have six more days for another 50,000+ cases to be confirmed.'

Telling indeed.

We don't know the numbers. But regardless of the actual numbers, hospitals are starting to be overwhelmed, suffering equipment shortages and seeing an increasing number of health care workers testing positive. I especially fear for our aging veterans who rely on the VA for their medical care.

Irony: Mithmee is working from home because his bosses knew better than him that it it wasn't "media hysteria".

This probably explains why he gets 2s or 3s on his performance reviews.

But at least he hasn't (yet) wound up like his rhetological brother-in-denial who posted the same misleading claims, and is now dead from Covid.

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No they brought into the media over hyping and forced me to work from home.

It is not my choice and would rather be in the office.

But Boeing shutdown everything for two weeks.

Oh and I could care less about Performance Reviews since things that are filled with personal bias do not drive me.

Still the best worker in my group but only for about another year since I will be retiring for good.

One must be unhealthy to die from this and that I am not.

So here is a question?

Why are not number of individuals who have gotten this not in the millions?

Answer it is not as easy to get as you think it is.

Spanish Flu ran rampant 100 years ago infecting 1-2 billion individuals this is even close to what the Spanish Flu was and will never be.

'Why are not number of individuals who have gotten this not in the millions?'

Based even on your own claims regarding unreported cases they are.

*the mass testing analysis which has taken place and reported on in the link I posted earlier, is between 60% and 85% could be unreported, but it depends on where you live.