"Hurricane Florence" Topic

If the estimated tracks hold true, it's going to be a wet weekend. I've stocked up on paints and brushes, and I have a massive lead pile. I should be all set.

So you're going to empty the lead into the water to poison your neighborhood?

I live in Hubert, North Carolina, not Flint Michigan. We have chemical run-off from the Marine Corps base in our water, not lead. ;-)

Both ECU and UNC-W have cancelled classes for the rest of the week. My son is coming home tonight from ECU and we're going to hunker down here in Charlotte. Hoping the winds don't get too crazy.

Stills a ways out.

But nothing new for Hurricanes to hit North Carolina, but for todays media they will act like this has never happened before.

Actually, Mithmee, this is the first cat 4 (possibly 5)
to hit the state in many, many years. The worst in our
area (Raleigh and environs, 1996) was pretty bad, but
Hazel (1954, with a storm surge of 18 feet at
Wrightsville Beach along the coast NW of Wilmington)
was nicknamed 'The Bulldozer' because of the massive
inland damage to homes, commercial and government
structures, etc.

Flo's track is very like those of Fran (the '96 storm)
and Hazel. In '54, the population of NC was about 3 M.
It is almost 10 M today, and the population along the
coast is far denser, as well as the Interstate corridor
populations (I95, I40, I77 etc.)

Charlotte should have some storm damage but if the
current track holds, Charlotte is in the least strongest
quadrant for winds – still fierce enough.

What I am most concerned with are extended periods of
heavy rain, which will increase markedly the potential
for trees to come down, hence massive power outages.

I've an external generator which can power the house
at low fuel consumption for about 5 days. If I really
skinny it down (just reefer, freezer, well pump) I can
extend to about 8 days.

Beyond that, I'd go W to find an operating motel.

Stay safe, and dry.

Dan

Evacuate if you have to, if on the edges stock up on paint, figures and candles

Looks like North Carolina is going to get whacked, best to get out of the way of the storm and hunker down away from the coast. We'll get wet in VA, hope the winds aren't bad. Ground's so saturated, winds will uproot plenty of trees.

The list of North Carolina hurricanes includes 413 known tropical or subtropical cyclones that have affected the U.S. state of North Carolina. Due to its location, many hurricanes have hit the state directly, and numerous hurricanes have passed near or through North Carolina in its history; the state is ranked fourth, after Florida, Texas, and Louisiana, in the number of cyclones that produced hurricane-force winds in a U.S.

As to statistical hurricane research between 1883 and 1996 by the North Carolina State Climatology Office, a tropical cyclone makes landfall along the coastline about once every four years.

The list of North Carolina hurricanes before 1900 encompasses 139 tropical cyclones that affected the U.S. state of North Carolina. Collectively, cyclones in North Carolina during the time period resulted in over 775 direct fatalities during the period. Seven cyclones affected the state in the 1893 season, which was the year with the most tropical cyclones devastating the state during the time period. From the beginning of the official Atlantic hurricane record in 1851 to 1899, there were 12 years without a known tropical cyclone affecting the state.

Between 1900 and 1949, 75 tropical cyclones or their remnants affected the state. Collectively, cyclones in North Carolina during that time period resulted in 53 total fatalities during the period, as well as about $328 USD million in damage (2008 USD). Tropical cyclone affected the state in all but nine seasons.

A total of 79 tropical or subtropical cyclones affected North Carolina between 1950 and 1979. Collectively, cyclones during the time period resulted in 37 total fatalities during the period, as well as about $3 USD billion in damage (2008 USD). A cyclone affected the state in every year during the time period, and in three seasons a total of five cyclones assailed the state. The strongest hurricane to hit the state during the time period was Hurricane Hazel, which struck the state as a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Scale. Hazel was both the costliest and deadliest cyclone during the period,

The period from 1980 to the present encompasses 120 tropical or subtropical cyclones that affected the state. Collectively, cyclones in North Carolina during the time period resulted in over $10 USD billion in damage (2010 USD), primarily from hurricanes Fran and Floyd. Additionally, tropical cyclones in North Carolina were responsible for 77 direct fatalities and at least 44 indirect casualties during the period. Eight cyclones affected the state in the 1985 season, which was the year with the most tropical cyclones striking the state. Every year included at least one tropical cyclone affecting the state.

link

Well Hurricanes/Tropical Storms hit the Carolina's all the time due to it location.

But that is nothing new.

Wind damage is bad enough, surely, but the primary and
most difficult to recover damage is from flooding.

Not mentioned in that summary is H'cane Matthew (2016).
There are still MANY homes not recovered from Matt's
flooding, and more homes into which the occupants have
only recently returned (as in within the past week!)

As the state has grown in population and more natural
ground has been converted to housing, roads, parking lots
and other structures (shopping centers, schools, etc.)
there is absolutely no where for storm water to go.

It swells rivers and accumulates in low-lying ground
until folks find water creeping/rushing into their
dwellings. Much of the development in the state has
been along watercourses – too bad for those entranced
by the prospect of a 'nice' waterway in their backyard.

I built in a rural area about 20 years ago. I am just
downslope from the crest of a ridge. If I flood, which
is unlikely, there will be thousands of folks in Orange
County (including Chapel Hill) who'll be underwater !

Far better that people overreact than underreact to something like this.

Good luck to everyone in the path.

I'm getting gas for the grill tonight in the Charlotte area, before we run out.

Don't worry Ed, Mithmee rarely reads what he links to otherwise he'd know he was making your point. The link clearly shows that only two recorded Category 4 hurricanes have hit the state, and that the number of storms have been increasing since the 1920's. If Florence does get upgraded to a Category 5 it will be the first to hit North Carolina.

And leave it to Wiki to forget about Hurricane Mathew. Understandable, as it was also a Category 5 storm. It had weakened before it hit landfall in the US.

I live in southern Ontario and have enjoyed a few days of rain pushed up by Florence.

Mithmee, you are more than welcome to come out here and join me, then you can judge for yourself if the news is over-hyping anything. I live in Hubert, NC (google it) and my house is one mile inland from the coast. I have about 14 days worth of MREs but only five days of water.

and that the number of storms have been increasing since the 1920's

Actually the list of Storms that have hit North Carolina has only increase from the 15-20 per year to 30+ only from the 1970's and on.

But the reason for that is more than likely what they call a storm.

But it is well known that the coast of North Carolina gets hit by Hurricanes all the time.

People who choose to live there know that so they should not be surprise when a Hurricane comes calling.

But the Media is already pushing the Agenda by calling this storm a Monster.

There have been bigger storms in the past but today any storm is a "Monster" and Global Warming is the reason for it.

Mithmee as a resident coastal North Carolina, my advice to you is to stick to topics of which you may actually have some knowledge. Obviously it's not North Carolina weather.

Private Matter – good luck. The storm track is trending
S and then SW then W which is a good news/bad news
trend.

For you folks N of Wilmington, it *may* reduce the
duration but it puts y'all in the strongest quadrant
of the storm re: wind strength/rainfall amounts.

For our area, forecast wind speeds top out at about 35 mph
gusts, down from previous forecasts of hurricane force
gusts. Still of concern, but major concern continues
to be flooding (not in my immediate area, but places
such as Raleigh with it's burgeoning growth. Raleigh
has already closed one municipal street [Clark Avenue]
notorious for flooding in periods of intense rainfall.)

Other gaming groups affected are the Cape Fear gamers
in Wilmington, Catawba Gamers in Charlotte (if the track
change trend holds, Charlotte is right in the path
although the storm will be weaker when it passes over
there. Fayetteville/Fort Bragg are going to get
intense rainfall which might be bad news since Fort
Bragg, specifically Simmmons Army Airfield, is a HUGE
FEMA staging area for temp shelters, relief supplies,
etc. Flooded or blocked roads could make it
difficult for FEMA to deploy those assets to areas
where they are needed.

The fixed and rotary wing assets at Simmons have been
flown out to other fields not in the storm's strike zone.

If Florence does get upgraded to a Category 5 it will be the first to hit North Carolina.

No, it won't. *Sigh*. It will be the first to be RECORDED as a Category 5 storm IN THE MODERN ERA when we can actually track wind speed, etc., for a hurricane. But I am willing to bet that, if we could find data for ALL of the coastal storms that EVER hit the North American eastern coastline since there was a North American eastern coastline, we would find thousands if not millions of Category 5 storms have struck there. (Even a cursory examination of the coastline geography should make that rather obvious, too…)

The problem with blaming anything like this on climatic changes is that the data simply doesn't go back far enough, nor does it contain consistent levels of either accuracy or precision beyond a century or so (and probably far less). Storms have ALWAYS struck the eastern seaboard, and sometimes they even strike in the same spot, and sometimes they strike in patterns and sometimes they don't strike in patterns, and it's all a big wash as to why, because WEATHER IS A CHAOTIC SYSTEM. Little peculiarities create big changes, and these are inherently unpredictable.

Here's a prediction: A hurricane (actually several) will appear next year. They will appear in both the Pacific and the Atlantic. Some will strike populated areas and cause destruction. Most won't. But I might point out that the number of storms is easily determinable by their names, as the naming ALWAYS begins at A and ends before Z. Florence, thus, is the 6th Atlantic storm this year. That's pretty typical, actually. And, given the process of naming storms began before we had satellites capable of detecting storms that never neared observation areas before (so we never knew about them), I'd say that number is probably consistent even over unrecorded time.

If you are in the coastal areas, leave. Head way up land, into the Appalachian and past. Sit it out in a nice hotel somewhere. If you actually have this skills to help, return when the storm is gone. Otherwise, go back when they say it's safe too.

Mithmee as a resident coastal North Carolina, my advice to you is to stick to topics of which you may actually have some knowledge. Obviously it's not North Carolina weather.

So like Parzival has pointed out there have more than likely been larger Storms to hit.

Or are we wrong and there haven't been larger Storms.

Now if you want to live in an area that sees Hurricanes every few years that is your choice to make.

But no matter what the Media and others have said…

Global Warming has nothing to do with this Hurricane and it is just pure old Mother Nature come calling.

Global Warming has nothing to do with this Hurricane and it is just pure old Mother Nature come calling.

Not quite. With regards to the formation of the storm, it's quite likely that it would have formed regardless. It's like asking how many home runs Barry Bonds would have hit without chemical enhancement. It's possible that he would have most of his home runs unassisted, but i doubt 762 would be his final unassisted tally.

But with regards to its strength, the warmer ocean surface temperatures will strengthen the storm, and help it hold more moisture (which has to go somewhere as rain). Secondly, as predicted by modelling, a warmer arctic is slowing down the jet stream, and that will slow down the track of the hurricane, increasing the odds that it will park itself over the Carolinas just like Harvey parked itself over Houston.

Well they are calling it the…

Storm of a Lifetime

link

See they can't use "Super Storm" because they used that for Hurricane Sandy.

Oh and for many individuals this will not be the…

Storm of a Lifetime

That is because they are still young and have many more storms that they will see and that will impact them.

No, it won't. *Sigh*. It will be the first to be RECORDED as a Category 5 storm IN THE MODERN ERA when we can…..

Of for Pete's sake, now you are just being pedantic. That was assumed as all the other storms listed were ones that were also recorded.

And if you allow me to be equally pedantic, by definition there never was a Category 5 storm ever to make landfall before recorded history. As the categorization of storms is a modern invention, there was no one to know that prior to the modern era. Were there storms of this severity before the modern era? Of course.

Oh and for many individuals this will not be the…

Storm of a Lifetime

That is because they are still young and have many more storms that they will see and that will impact them.

Setting up a strawman just to knock it down. Looks good on you.

I'm being pedantic? No, Bowman, sorry, but you were being too broad. In a discussion about hurricanes tainted by claims that climate change is affecting number, path and intensity, you made a statement which inherently implied that this hurricane was unprecented in climatic history for the region. I simply corrected the record.

By the way, Flo is now dropped to a Cat 2, and as currently tracked, will not primarily strike North Carolina, but the border region of North and South Carolina, and there is a distinct possibility it will be even weaker when it eventually does make landfall. Still dangerous, still deadly, still capable of producing devastating flooding, and everyone in the path should get out and not come back till it's all done, but NOT the dire "übersturm" the media has been squawking about, and not striking an area unknown for having hurricanes strike it. So, not particularly intense, not atypical in ordinal place among yearly storms, and not in an unusual location at all. Just another big dangerous storm in an ocean region known for big dangerous storms (the USS Monitor sank in a storm off the North Carolina coast in December, 1862). Which returns to my point that WEATHER IS A CHAOTIC SYSTEM, and inherently unpredictable in detail, and hurricanes are a great example of the same. One can make predictions of possibilities within a range, but not actual final status.

And again, if you are anywhere in a potential path of this storm, get out. Because, as a chaotic system, it could gain strength again, or veer off in another direction within that probability cone. Stay safe!

You really can't tell much from the category. When Sandy hit New Jersey a few years ago it had fallen below Cat 1 and wasn't even technically a hurricane. But it still did colossal damage which is still being repaired. And there have been more powerful storms which have done less damage. No way to predict the damage, but you always should prepare for the worst.

I'm being pedantic?

Seems like it.

…….you made a statement which inherently implied that this hurricane was unprecented in climatic history for the region. I simply corrected the record.

I simply remarked what was indicated from the first chart on Mithmee's Wiki link. No Cat 5 storms ever since records show from 1879. I'll add the last section from now on to appease the pedants. I would have thought that by Wiki adding, "Storms are listed since 1851, which is the official start of the Atlantic hurricane database.", would have been all the explanation needed. And the use of the word "unprecedented" is your own invention. It was never stated, suggested or implied.

You really can't tell much from the category.

The SS scale is simply based on wind speed. Overall damage and deaths from the storms depend on how close landfall is to populated areas and how much water is involved (storm surges, rainfall amounts, flooding etc.) The category level is but one aspect of this.

Scott is correct. The Category describes the intensity of the storm, independent of damage. Damage done by a storm is dependent on the amount and type of property affected by the storm, combined with the terrain conditions of the region hit by the storm. So if a Cat 5 storm hits an unpopulated desert, it doesn't do any "damage," unless you count "moving sand about" as damage. If a Cat 1 hits a low-lying city, it does a massive amount of damage because there's more to damage and a greater likelihood of flooding due to the flat terrain. The only thing that the Category can tell you regarding potential damage is that given the exact same area as an impact sight, a higher category storm has the greater potential to inflict a higher amount of damage on that area than the lower category storm has. Of course, in certain cases the difference may indeed be moot; if a Cat 1 can wipe out a town, then it really doesn't matter if a Cat 5 wipes it out instead. Either way, it's gone.

So for those in the path of the storm. PLEASE don't assume because the storm has weakened that you and your loved ones are "safer." As a FEMA spokesman put it, would you rather be hit by a train or a cement truck?
Get to safety, and don't foolishly endanger any rescue personnel by staying in place. They *have* to attempt rescue you, even if you are being a fool. And that threatens *their* lives. Do you want that on your conscious? GET OUT. The stuff can be replaced. Lives can't.

Setting up a strawman just to knock it down. Looks good on you.

Gee, it ends up only being a CAT 2 Hurricane, well looks like the Media and Global Warmers will have to wait for the next one.

So not a…

Monster Storm

Oh and not the…

Storm of a Lifetime

But still a Storm just not the Storm that they really wanted.

So not a…

Monster Storm

Oh and not the…

Storm of a Lifetime

No one but you said this, hence strawman fallacy

But still a Storm just not the Storm that they really wanted.

Who is "they"? Who wants a bad storm?

+1 to Parzival

Just saw a live feed on the news. There are still people with their moored sailboat in Morehead City harbour. What gives with some people?

No one but you said this, hence strawman fallacy.

So a Strawman? & only I said this.

First Monster Storm Links.

link

link

link

Second one:

Headline

Hurricane Florence, 'storm of a lifetime,' generating 83-foot high waves as it barrels towards Carolina coast

link

The Media said this I only provided the links.

Who is "they"? Who wants a bad storm?

Well the Global Warmers and the Media since because then they can push their Agenda.

But Florence just did not live up to what they wanted – which was a CAT 5 Storm with winds of 180 – 200 miles per hour.

They drove the hype, but it just didn't happen.

What gives with some people?

Well some individuals just are risk takers or they knew it wasn't going to be as bad as the Media was stating.

Well the Global Warmers and the Media since because then they can push their Agenda.

Sigh. I give up. Reminds me of Twain's comment on who to never argue with.

Ratcheting up the hyperbole of the media and turning it into a global conspiracy? And it's still a straw man: as you are refuting and ridiculing an argument that was never brought up by anyone on this thread but yourself.

And typhoons and hurricanes probably are "monster storms" on this planet. Who else would be a contender? As for the "storm of the century" I'm not surprised at the source of that hyperbole.

Once more – the MAJOR problem with Florence, as it is
with MOST hurricanes, whether TS or Cat 5, is flooding.

With Florence, the flooding problem is much more severe
than with Hazel (1954) for a variety of reasons.

From the weather aspect, the speed (or lack of it) of
the storm has allowed a great deal of ocean water to
be pushed up along the rivers and tributaries to them
which form the drainage basins along NC's coast.

From a geographical aspect, The Tar, Alligator, Cape
Fear, Neuse (especially this latter) Roanoke and other
rivers and their tributaries are being 'fed' with water
from the ocean by Florence's winds.

Those are also being 'fed' by rainwater from the drainage
N, NW and W of the storm's track. Some areas in the
drainage basin have received almost 20 inches of rain
BEFORE landfall.

Finally, there is the 'people' aspect of the problem.
I've remarked before that Hazel and Hugo (1989) both
struck NC and SC at a time when the population density
was significantly less than it is today, with the
associated increase in infrastructure, dwellings,
commercial structures, etc. Call those 'damage targets'
and it should be reasonably plain how a storm in
1954 which was 'major' in terms of windspeed and rain-
fall (cat 4) can be superseded as the 'storm of a lifetime'
in 2018 even though Florence is a category 1 at landfall when
the wind speed is much less but the rainfall
(concentrated due to the storm's lingering over
an area) is much more.

And of course don't forget the media's need for adjectives
and adverbs used much as an artist uses garish colors
and unusual imagery to attract attention, warranted or not.

If anyone reads all through that, thanks. Human
presence has a LOT to do with how a storm is
categorized by the media – not that that's a good
or bad 'thing,' just a 'thing'.

I like this guy.

link

Actually, a local TV crew did shots of him today at about
9 AM. There was NO wind and only LIGHT rain at the time.

The brunt of Florence hit MB about 3 hours later. The TV
crew retreated indoors to save their equipment.

So they miss out on his footage…

Their lost.

link