"Elon Musk and SpaceX Announce a plan to Colonize..." Topic

…Mars and Save Humanity.

See here and save yourself (smile)
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Amicalement
Amand

Sounds very pipe dreamy.

Might do this, possibly do that. Giant rockets.

As it stands now the regular space x rocket blows up on a regular basis. Mabye actually have a working rocket. Before fantasising about huge rockets

Clearly still a dream. But it's nice seeing people who dare to dream. Darn few of 'em left anymore.

Well there is dreaming and then there is blind ignorance. Going to Mars is one thing. Creating a society there is something totally different.

"Then again, Mars' gravity is about one-third that of Earth's, so maybe everything will be cool. Hell, I'm not a physicist, people. Welcome to your new home!"

Well said, Elon. Mars has no active core and has no (very little, 1% of Earth's) atmosphere. If you don't understand any physics then you won't understand the implications of those two facts and you are free to dream away.

You're right, Gunfreak. We should never do anything if it doesn't work right the first time or all the time. I mean, whoops, the surgeon dropped a scalpel— clearly surgery doesn't work and will never work, right? [/snark]

Gunfreak, your ignorance about this subject is appalling. SpaceX rockets don't "blow up on a regular basis." Yes, some test <i/> rockets crashed while attempting vertical powered landings of orbital first stage boosters, which was something NO ONE HAD EVER DONE BEFORE. (But now SpaceX has indeed done it.)

Good grief, man, are you under the impression that NASA's first attempts at anything were any less disastrous? If you'd been in charge, the Apollo programmed would have ended after Apollo 1, if it even got that far. It's not called "rocket science" because it's easy.

The latest explosion is indeed more problematic, as it occurred in a launch rocket system which has, up until now, proven fairly reliable and solid over multiple launches. So SpaceX does have to discover what went wrong, why it did, and whether it's an inherent flaw or a one-time fluke, and whether it's correctable and preventable for future launches (which it probably is).

But NONE of that is a reason not to dream, and not to dream BIG.

Yes, Elon Musk is not a physicist. He's a dream-caster, and one who has the audacity to decide to make his dreams happen. But there are plenty of more knowledgeable people than Musk, or for that matter, any of us here, who DO seriously believe that Mars is colonizable and potentially terraformable. No, it won't become a second Earth. But it could be turned into a sustainably habitable planet.

Now, will the low G be a factor? Certainly, but will it be dream-ender? We honestly don't know because we don't have any data on long-term exposure of Earth-based higher life forms to a 0.33G environment. We know that long term micro</>gravity is unhealthy, but that's in no way the same thing at all. The only way to test the health effects of Martian gravity are to either be on Mars or to build a rotating space station set to simulate 0.33G through "centrifugal force" and leave some higher life forms on board for extended periods. My thinking is you'd see some minor muscle atrophy, and maybe even bone loss (or maybe none), but that it would stabilize at a reasonable level.

So there's nothing inherently impossible about Musk's dream. It's just audacious and big and positive. But hey, let's shoot that down, right? Because apparently these days we can't have that.

Aargh. I've been off TMP so long I forgot how the / attribute worked. :-P

I didn't say he couldn't dream. But you don't sell the hide until the bear is shot.

Falcon 9 isn't operational. It has barely 50% success in landings (which I counted as "exploding")

And he talks about building a ship the size of 2 747 and a rocket big enough to get it into orbit.

Any basement dweller can think over the top. It's a strawman comparing this to NASA, they are pros. He is not.

I can just as well say. In 15 years I'll terraform the moon. Making wild predictions doesn't help even if you got 11 billon fortune.

I'm still waiting on that hyper loop thingy he "invented"

So far tesla is his only true "success" I don't put much stock in a one hit wonder.

Had Obama said he will increase NASA budget with 500 billion and get a human to Mars in 10 years I would belive it.

Musks idea not so much (I'm going to be very happy and excited if proven wrong)

If you don't understand any physics then you won't understand the implications of those two facts and you are free to dream away.

Yeah, but the problems associated with those things (and a host of other challenges for humans to survive on Mars long term) are worse in the nine-month best case trip to Mars. If you can handle that, sustaining people in the more forgiving environment will be easier. If you can't, you don't have to worry about how people will survive on-planet.

My big concerns have always been the psychological effects on humans from the ways you would have to deal with the physical challenges.

I'm a bit concerned that his plans all seem to revolve around getting the people there without any thought about how they will stay alive once they are there. Details… details…

Yeah, but the problems associated with those things (and a host of other challenges for humans to survive on Mars long term) are worse in the nine-month best case trip to Mars.

I'm not sure that is true. The Mars Radiation Environment Experiment (MARIE) device on the Mars Odyssey has shown that radiation levels in orbit above Mars is 2.5 times greater than that measured at the International Space Center. That's pretty impressive considering how much farther Mars is from the Sun. And with a negligible atmosphere, surface radiation is about 22MRad per day.

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Add to that solar particle flares (proton storms), solar radiation and cosmic rays. The almost non-existent atmosphere and magnetosphere doesn't seem to make the surface of Mars much safer that space itself.

Musk's ultimate vision is a Martian city of millions.

All huddled in cramped, heavily insulated, underground bunkers. Not my dream.

But there are plenty of more knowledgeable people than Musk, or for that matter, any of us here, who DO seriously believe that Mars is colonizable and potentially terraformable.

I read on Wiki that some think we will terraform Mars by creating CO2 factories to crank out greenhouse gases. Sure that'll work great. Mars' crappy atmosphere is already 96% CO2. That's 22.5 times the relative pressure of CO2 on Earth and 7 times the hypercapnia limit for humans. Also with an atmosphere of .00628 atmos the CO2 will bleed into space. How are you going to keep the terraformed atmosphere hanging around the planet? It's been boiling off for billions of years. Or it gets scraped off by the solar winds because there are no magnetic fields to protect the gases.

Hey, I'm all for dreamers. If we are going to dream, how about going the Dyson Swarm or Bubble or Shell route? Seems as far fetched as trying to jump start the iron-nickel core within Mars and making it a proper planet.

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My big concerns have always been the psychological effects on humans from the ways you would have to deal with the physical challenges.

Yep. Living in an overcrowded underground bunker sounds pretty dreary. Unless you are one of these fellows:

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I'm not sure that is true. The Mars Radiation Environment Experiment (MARIE) device on the Mars Odyssey has shown that radiation levels in orbit above Mars is 2.5 times greater than that measured at the International Space Center. That's pretty impressive considering how much farther Mars is from the Sun. And with a negligible atmosphere, surface radiation is about 22MRad per day.

Regardless of the relative rates on Earth, near Earth, or on the surface of Mars, the radiation in interplanetary space is higher. Zero atmosphere, and no natural magnetic fields for deflection.

Plus, once you get to Mars, there's a big basalt shield you can hide under.

The best bit of near planet travel is that we can reasonably send a bucket of robots there first, have them construct a colony, and run it for a couple of years to shake the bugs out.

Then they declare independence.

And we end up finding a buried shadow ship.

Regardless of the relative rates on Earth, near Earth, or on the surface of Mars, the radiation in interplanetary space is higher. Zero atmosphere, and no natural magnetic fields for deflection.

Well, that's almost the case for Mars. Using Nasa's figures, the radiation striking the surface of Mars is about a .3 sieverts/year. A trip to Mars and back is .66 sieverts. Compared to Earth where our atmosphere and magnetosphere give us .0036 sieverts/year.

I'm not arguing that space travel isn't dangerous, I'm arguing that terraforming the surface of Mars is impractical, despite what Parzival's unnamed "experts" say. Any terraforming gases will boil off due to the poor gravitational pull or be removed by solar winds due to the poor magnetosphere. And that, combined with the thin atmosphere, will always ensure that Mars will be heavily irradiated. If Elon's "millions" are stuck underground on Mars, then what is the point of the terraforming? And where are the farms going to be that he mentions?

The best bit of near planet travel is that we can reasonably send a bucket of robots there first, have them construct a colony, and run it for a couple of years to shake the bugs out.

I think that is what was said in the link I provided.

And just a question about the bucketful of robots approach on Mars. What would benefit humanity more?

1) Having these robots seek out basalt deposits and burrowing caverns underneath the rock for future habitation?

Or:

2) Having the robots scurrying around and doing more indepth scientific investigations of the planet?

I suppose the answer lies in who is funding the expeditions.

And we end up finding a buried shadow ship.

Babylon 5 reference?

Of course!

Okay, I'll name an expert: Robert M. Zubrin.

With regards to what would benefit humanity more, why the heck can't the robots do BOTH? Digging lots of caverns (or finding them) is going to produce literally tons of examinble ores, minerals, etc., and tell us a great deal more about Mars's composition and climatic and "geological" history than shuffling about on the surface.

Also, the answer depends on what one labels "beneficial." There are those who argue (Stephen Hawking among them), that humanity had damn well find a way to get our eggs out of the proverbial singular basket if we're going to survive long term. As it is, we're one big rock away from utter extinction. Or one big volcanic eruption. Or one nasty disease. Or one nut bag Asian dictator with nukes. Or…
So yeah, maybe digging habitats on Mars *is* the more cost beneficial choice.

Ah yes, Robert Zubin of the Mars Society. You know that Zubin himself has stated that there is no such thing as an "expert" in off planet colonization, just to keep things in perspective. He's the guy I was alluding to in my Sept 29 comment.

Beyond such near-term milestones, the tasks associated with full terraforming become more daunting and the technologies required more speculative. Yet who can doubt that if the first steps are taken, that the developments required to complete the job will not follow, for what is ultimately at stake is an infinite universe of habitable worlds.

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He's an engineer and is good at dealing with engineering issues like rockets,landers, explorers etc. But no where do I see him address the issues of lack of atmosphere and magnetosphere. As he thinks terraforming an atmosphere will take about 900 years I'll put that down to more "speculative technologies".

Your second paragraph is a straw man. No one is talking about space exploration and humans going out into space.

And since we are looking at things a millennium away, how about my wacky idea of building a Dyson Sphere instead? That's speculation too.

Yet who can doubt that if the first steps are taken, that the developments required to complete the job will not follow

That is a somewhat interesting statement. And to answer the question, yes, many would doubt (and should). Its a little akin to "build it and they will come". To assume that the mere act of launching into a project will ensure that the as yet unknown solutions will magically appear shows more than a bit of naivete.

And since we are looking at things a millennium away, how about my wacky idea of building a Dyson Sphere instead?

Sure! Got a white dwarf in mind?

Sure! Got a white dwarf in mind? grin

I guess a brown dwarf won't do. Not very hot but at least they are everywhere to be found.

A Dyson Sphere is apparently impossible to build but Dyson clouds and rings are more doable. That'll work with our Sun too. Interestingly enough, the solar sails used in a Dyson Cloud are similar to what Zubin wants to focus sunlight on Mars to heat up the planet.

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