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""...our biggest existential threat..."" Topic


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Terrement14 Dec 2015 12:05 p.m. PST

Elon Musk launches $1 USDbn fund to save world from AI

link

Other than terrorism, the spread of nukes to bad places and, of course, AGW

ScottWashburn Sponsoring Member of TMP14 Dec 2015 12:10 p.m. PST

"Because of AI's surprising history, it's hard to predict when human-level AI might come within reach,"

Does he mean it's surprising that we've made so LITTLE progress in the past 60 years?

Computers are a lot more capable now, but if by AI you mean a thinking, self-aware computer, then we aren't even close.

Terrement14 Dec 2015 1:07 p.m. PST

I don't know exactly what he means, but I think he's alluding to possible advances, as did Hawking who he quoted in the article:

"Last year Prof Stephen Hawking, the theoretical physicist, told the BBC that the technology could spell the end of human race.

He warned of a technology that could "re-design itself at an ever increasing rate" outpacing human advances."

How soon is anyone's guess but I think that is the concern.

add to it this sort of thing:
link

link

and consider that not so many decades ago, a hand held machine that could add, subtract, multiply divide and take square root was a pretty hot bit of equipment (my HP version for Christmas in 1972 was just over $100.00 USD) and one wonders what sort of leaps will be coming in the next few decades.

Winston Smith14 Dec 2015 1:27 p.m. PST

Just because you're rich, doesn't mean you're a genius.
Cough cough cough *<avoided for possible "political" DH sentence>*

And just because you are a Nobel Laureate, you are not an expert in EVERYTHING.
Who was that Nobel Laureate Johnnie that shocked everything with his racial theories and eugenics? William Shockley?

Waco Joe14 Dec 2015 2:13 p.m. PST

What happens if anthropomorphic global warming attains artificial intelligence and decides to become a terrorist?

AIAGWISIS?

Terrement14 Dec 2015 2:43 p.m. PST

I may take that as the battle cry for some of my alien forces

AIAGWISIS!- (aye-agg wii-sis with the accent on the third syllable)

Charlie 1214 Dec 2015 4:48 p.m. PST

Musk needs to bone up on the technology before he goes all Luddite. Current (and foreseeable) tech is waaaaaay short of his hyper paranoid nightmare..

Zargon14 Dec 2015 5:54 p.m. PST

Dumbing down the tech to the masses could be profitable to them up high, the problem of AI is would it be able to discern suffering, a very scary thing to the rich I think, me I love the Musk as I think he has the capability to give more than hot air and magic (see Billy Gates talking about energy on the BBC? at the climate summit, yes he use scientists and magic in the same speech ha ha) I'm thinking these guys know lots more than they are letting on if they are putting scare stories and money in the way of AI development, though I'd rather be done in by AI than the crooks running the world ;)
Cheers and be nice to R2D2 we may need him to stop the Empire eh:)

Terrement14 Dec 2015 6:12 p.m. PST

Charlie,

He isn't saying it is happening tomorrow. Get a grip.

ScottWashburn Sponsoring Member of TMP14 Dec 2015 6:25 p.m. PST

Whenever I watch 2001 A Space Odyssey I ponder that at the time that the movie was made (1968) every single thing in it, the PanAm space clipper, the orbiting space station, the moon base, and the Discovery probe to Jupiter could have been accomplished by 2001 if we had simply thrown enough money into it.

EXCEPT for HAL!

Personal logo Saber6 Supporting Member of TMP Fezian14 Dec 2015 7:33 p.m. PST

Or this is a "clever plan" to get in on the ground floor of AI development

Terrement14 Dec 2015 8:42 p.m. PST

With the $$$$ he's spending, he has a lot of opportunities to pursue

Charlie 1214 Dec 2015 9:49 p.m. PST

He isn't saying it is happening tomorrow. Get a grip.

Reference "foreseeable": As in, not today, not tomorrow or even in our lifetime. Computing speed would have to increase several magnitudes for even the most rudimentary AI. And that ain't happening because we've effectively hit the speed wall.

YOU get a grip, JJ…. Or better still, check your facts…

Terrement14 Dec 2015 10:09 p.m. PST

He isn't even saying foreseeable.

""Because of AI's surprising history, it's hard to predict when human-level AI might come within reach," they said in a statement. "When it does, it'll be important to have a leading research institution which can prioritise a good outcome for all over its own self-interest."
The statement is a reflection of the debate within the science and technology worlds about the threats and benefits offered by rapid advances in computer intelligence, and whether legislative safeguards – or even a total moratorium on research – are needed."

So if you don't know and can't predict when it will happen, then foreseeable by definition doesn't enter into it.

Once you have credentials that rival Hawking, THEN I might consider your opinion worth listening to. Until then? Get a grip.

Mad Mecha Guy15 Dec 2015 4:44 a.m. PST

IBM are working on a Computer chip that operates in a similar way to human Neurons. Wonder what would happen if they tied into a large neural network & plugged it into the internet.

link

link

15th Hussar15 Dec 2015 6:30 a.m. PST

Daisy, Dazeee…give me…your…answer…T…R…U…E

RavenscraftCybernetics15 Dec 2015 7:22 a.m. PST

as the saying goes… you cant stop progress.
it seems to me that eventually we should be replaced by A.I.

Terrement15 Dec 2015 7:44 a.m. PST

And some folks can be replaced by less than that already!

Great War Ace15 Dec 2015 10:31 a.m. PST

"Al". I agree that "Al" is a problem. But it isn't because he's so "self aware". That is actually a good thing for the rest of us. He's so "self aware" that he doesn't even notice the silly side of the words that he says….

Charlie 1215 Dec 2015 3:22 p.m. PST

Once you have credentials that rival Hawking, THEN I might consider your opinion worth listening to.

So, JJ, you consider Hawking (and Gates and Musk) to be thoroughly qualified in the area of AI? Considering NONE of them have any background in the field (same as most of us), why should I give their opinions more credence than, say, known researchers in the field?

Really makes no sense, does it now.

Terrement15 Dec 2015 3:37 p.m. PST

Not qualified in AI, just Deleted by Moderator.

darthfozzywig15 Dec 2015 7:15 p.m. PST

AIAGWISIS?

ISIS is everywhere!!!! AHHHH!111!!11oneone!

darthfozzywig15 Dec 2015 7:17 p.m. PST

Musk needs to bone up on the technology before he goes all Luddite.

Putting Musk and Luddite in the same sentence doesn't make for a credible post.

Personal logo Mister Tibbles Supporting Member of TMP15 Dec 2015 9:06 p.m. PST

Why is everyone afraid of Al? I hear he's a swell guy! grin

Personal logo ochoin Supporting Member of TMP16 Dec 2015 4:59 a.m. PST

Why is everyone afraid of Al?

Not since Elliot Ness sorted him out:

picture

Personal logo javelin98 Supporting Member of TMP16 Dec 2015 2:51 p.m. PST

IBM are working on a Computer chip that operates in a similar way to human Neurons. Wonder what would happen if they tied into a large neural network & plugged it into the internet.

Personally, I think it would take a look at the state of the world and then format its own hard drive.

Bowman17 Dec 2015 11:20 a.m. PST

And just because you are a Nobel Laureate, you are not an expert in EVERYTHING.
Who was that Nobel Laureate Johnnie that shocked everything with his racial theories and eugenics? William Shockley?

John the OFM and Charlie 12 are correct in this case. I'm a big Hawking fan and realize he has an IQ rating off the scale. However, giving undue credence to Hawking for an opinion outside of his specialty is a fallacy…..the argument from authority.

That doesn't make him wrong, anymore than it makes him right. It's just that his cosmology opinions should be given more value than his non-cosmology opinions.

In JJ's defence, what he said was not a dog-housable offence, IMO.

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