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"Is it ok to ask how foreigners see American politics?" Topic


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60 hits since 30 Sep 2026
©1994-2026 Bill Armintrout
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Personal logo doc mcb Supporting Member of TMP30 Sep 2026 3:28 p.m. PST

The IRGC apparently just appealed to Americans to vote against Trump. Seriously?? Do they not employ people who know enough American politics to understand that this probably gives Trump a lot of independent votes?

Is this a sign of desperation by IRAN?

link

Personal logo ochoin Supporting Member of TMP30 Sep 2026 3:49 p.m. PST

Doc, I think you're assuming that the Iranians are being rather more straightforward than they actually are. To be fair, this unsubtle approach to Iran has characterised the entire disastrous Iranian War.

Yes, the IRGC has appealed to American voters to reject Trump and his allies. But taking that at face value as "the Iranians have decided this is how you win American votes" may be missing the point. The IRGC itself says it doesn't expect the letter to change the administration's behaviour; the stated hope is that American voters will hear the message and reconsider.

Iranian political and strategic messaging is rarely just about the literal surface message. There are several audiences here: Americans, the wider international audience, Iran's own population, and — rather importantly — the people in Washington who are trying to work out what Tehran actually wants.

So your reaction of "Seriously?? Don't they understand American politics?" is actually rather beside the point.

For all we know, the IRGC really does believe this will influence American voters. But there is another possibility: that the purpose is to frame the war politically, reinforce the distinction Iran is making between the American people and the American government, put pressure on Washington, and establish a public narrative for whatever comes next.

And then there is the more mischievous possibility: if Tehran actually regarded Trump as the easiest American opponent to deal with, publicly telling Americans to get rid of him would be a wonderfully indirect way of concealing that preference. I'm not saying that's what they're doing — there is no evidence for that conclusion — but it's certainly worth considering before assuming the IRGC has simply wandered into American politics without understanding the likely reaction.

In other words, I wouldn't be too quick to conclude that "Iran is desperate." There are no signs of this – quite the contrary. They may be playing several games simultaneously.

Sometimes, Doc, the fact that a message appears rather counterproductive is precisely why it's worth asking what the sender is trying to achieve besides the obvious thing written on the label.

Personal logo doc mcb Supporting Member of TMP30 Sep 2026 4:07 p.m. PST

Well, it is always possible, as a matter of logic, to dismiss the appearances and posit some deep motive or conspiracy that is the REAL truth. And occasionally conspiracy theories are valid. But I agree with the Occam's razor rule that most things attributed to wicked wiles are actually the consequence of incompetence. So perhaps you are overthinking this.

Personal logo doc mcb Supporting Member of TMP30 Sep 2026 4:14 p.m. PST

Do we agree that the IRGC is the hardest of the hardliners Iran has? So is this letter and the attempt behind it a sign that the hardliners are completely in charge? (As they likely have been all along.)

I assume Trump is asking his advisors and the CIA etc. ochoin, if you were one of those advisors, what would you recommend? Your post contains a lot of possibilities and also weasel words. I do hope the CinC is getting something clear enough to act on.

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