
"the siege of Iran" Topic
38 Posts
All members in good standing are free to post here. Opinions expressed here are solely those of the posters, and have not been cleared with nor are they endorsed by The Miniatures Page.
Please avoid recent politics on the forums.
For more information, see the TMP FAQ.
Back to the Ultramodern Warfare (2016-present) Message Board
Action Log
24 Sep 2026 2:13 p.m. PST by Editor in Chief Bill
- Changed title from "the seige of Iran" to "the siege of Iran"
- Changed starttime from
24 Sep 2026 12:47 p.m. PST to 24 Sep 2026 12:47 p.m. PST
Areas of InterestModern
Featured Hobby News Article
Featured Recent Link
Featured Ruleset
Featured Showcase Article
Featured Profile Article
Featured Book Review
Featured Movie Review
|
doc mcb  | 24 Sep 2026 12:47 p.m. PST |
I think it is helpful to consider the war in Iran as basically the American siege of Iran. A garrison may make sorties. But no decisive open field battle is going to happen. The defense is slowly drained of resources until it either surrenders or is overwhelmed by a storm. And for a long while nothing happens. Then it all happens at once. |
ochoin  | 24 Sep 2026 5:13 p.m. PST |
I think that's a… creative interpretation but I don't think the "siege of Iran" analogy really holds water. A more useful historical analogy may be the Second Sino-Japanese War of 1937–45. Japan possessed overwhelming military superiority in many respects and initially expected that a series of crushing blows would force China to come to terms. Instead, it found itself drawn into a conflict vastly more difficult and protracted than anticipated. The Japanese could win battles, seize territory and inflict enormous damage but none of that necessarily produced the political result they wanted. The Chinese government could retreat, absorb losses, continue fighting and make the Japanese pay for every additional step. What Japan had imagined as a campaign became a strategic quagmire. Japan's experience in China is instructive precisely because it demonstrates how easily "we can defeat their forces" can become "we cannot make them stop fighting." The Japanese captured cities and repeatedly defeated Chinese armies, yet victory remained elusive and the war expanded rather than concluded. So I'd be cautious about predicting a final "storming of the fortress". The more interesting question is whether the US can convert its enormous military superiority into a politically face-saving settlement—or whether it discovers that destroying things and defeating formations are two rather different things from actually ending a war. |
doc mcb  | 24 Sep 2026 5:50 p.m. PST |
Only the Iranian people can destroy the regime. But we can make the regime so weak that happens. And I TRUST the CIA and MOSSAD have tricks up their sleeves. |
| Tango01 | 24 Sep 2026 6:06 p.m. PST |
Why America Must Arm the Iranian Resistance "…While China provides the financial shield, the Russian Federation supplies the logistical and military backbone necessary to weather the storm. Moscow has vehemently condemned the American naval blockade, framing it as an act of economic warfare, and has moved aggressively to ensure Iranian survival. The bilateral relationship has deepened into a comprehensive strategic partnership, characterized by the exchange of advanced military technologies, air defense systems, and intelligence sharing. Furthermore, trade between the two nations is conducted entirely in national currencies, intentionally circumventing Western financial choke points. Russia recognizes that the collapse of the Iranian regime would remove a critical node of resistance against American hegemony in the Middle East, and is therefore deeply committed to subsidizing Tehran's defiance. The physical counterpart is a growing overland and Caspian logistics system the Navy cannot board. Russia and Iran have turned the Caspian into a wartime supply line—wheat, feed, industrial goods, and military components moving between Russian ports such as Olya and Iranian Caspian terminals—precisely because the Gulf is under blockade. The International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) has also gained traffic, including its eastern rail branch through Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. Central Asian governments have every commercial reason to keep those lines open. The result is food and parts the Navy cannot seize. That is not an unrestricted substitute for seaborne oil. INSTC capacity is still limited. The western rail link through Azerbaijan remains constrained by the incomplete Rasht–Astara section inside Iran. Insurance, customs friction, and the risk of further strikes on Iranian rail and ports all cap what these routes can carry. There is no public evidence of a perfected, large-scale energy-swap machine that pipes Russian oil and gas into northern Iran in volumes sufficient to free equivalent southern barrels for illicit export. What evidence does show is more modest and still dangerous to U.S. strategy: enough bilateral trade to prevent a sudden logistical collapse, and enough Russian-Iranian traffic on an inland sea that American maritime power cannot interdict. Sanctions and the blockade hurt. They do not isolate Tehran from its two most important patrons. Chinese offtake and parallel payments, plus Russian Caspian and corridor logistics, make near-term Iranian capitulation under economic pressure alone unlikely. The administration's reliance on economic strangulation is yielding diminishing returns against a state that prioritizes ideological survival over economic prosperity and possesses the institutional experience to operate under extreme isolation. The theocracy has consistently demonstrated a willingness to shift the burden of sanctions onto its citizenry, violently suppressing the inevitable domestic unrest while insulating the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the nuclear establishment from the worst of the deprivations. Waiting for the regime to simply run out of money is no longer a viable strategy when Beijing still buys the oil and Moscow still runs the inland pipeline of food and parts…" link
Armand
|
doc mcb  | 25 Sep 2026 1:37 a.m. PST |
|
aegiscg47  | 25 Sep 2026 6:13 a.m. PST |
It's more of an economic siege than anything else. The IGRC, Houthis, Hamas, and Hezbollah desperately need Iran's oil income for operations and to pay their fighters. Not to mention regular shipments of missile parts, technicians, advisors, etc., all of which have dried up. Iran has also lost most, if not all of their surface search and target acquisition radars along the coast, resulting in Iran now blindly launching at ships passing through the Strait, but still scoring a hit here and there. With lines for fuel reaching over a mile now, the cost of food is astronomical, etc., it will be interesting to see how much longer the regime can last. |
35thOVI  | 25 Sep 2026 6:50 a.m. PST |
"Our buildings, bridges, ships, planes, nuclear sites and people are destroying the infidels missile stockpiles!" The Ayatollah |
Tortorella  | 25 Sep 2026 8:02 a.m. PST |
That Ayatollah can really spin some news! I do not think we can "win" this war in the conventional sense, fighting the way we do against an enemy whose strengths and tactics are so different. Such a big deal made out of destroying the Iranian Navy, but this has no impact on them mounting terror strikes on Israel or around the world. Its not a siege. We could mount an invasion and take the country by sheer military force anytime. It would be costly. The terrain is difficult and the war could continue in the mountains. If this is a siege, it is self-imposed, and it will degrade our forces, as sieges tend to do eventually. There is nothing clever about the current situation. The only way to win is internally, IMO, using combined special forces, finding new qualified US leadership, renew ties to our allies, form a coalition. We have gained nothing by disrespecting and breaking down our relationships with Europe except an extra few million bucks. Combine intelligence services and personnel, provide major support for the insurgents, target the terrorist leadership, make their daily lives hell, capture or kill them, destabilize their ability to focus on the broader picture. Use guerilla tactics to destabilize the Guard. Black ops, whatever it takes. Stop killing civilians. A brutal hard job. But the mullah fanatic leaders will fight to the last can of beans. And go after the Houthi fanatics once and for all in similar fashion. We just let them walk all over everybody last month. Combine with the Saudis to get inside and clean out that proxy gang. I know its only a dream…. But we underestimated Iran, and we still lack a plan for the ME in general. Either finish them off or get out. A siege mentality feels like waiting to die, the fanatics will hold out. |
SBminisguy  | 25 Sep 2026 8:43 a.m. PST |
We're only in a siege because of domestic US politics. It's the Midterms, do Trump is trying to reduce the situation to help the Republicans win while the Democrats try to inflame things so they can win. But Trump told the world at the UN what his exit strategy was -- the Iranian regime must make a deal to cut off their WMD programs and stop aggressing against their neighbors, or he's going to blow the regime to hell. |
35thOVI  | 25 Sep 2026 9:36 a.m. PST |
The Iranians watch our news. They see a large group of US citizens and the MSM complaining and whining on day 2. It continues: "our gas is too high!" "Our food cost too much!". 😭 They believe, as do many, that the U.S. citizens do not have the stomach for a war of any duration, nor are they willing to make any sacrifices from their daily creature comforts. Not only does Iran see it, but China and Russia see it, actually all our enemies see it. Why shouldn't they? They have seen it from a large group of our citizens since Vietnam. So they believe if we just hold out till the midterms, and the other party gets in, all will be reversed. Why not, everything was within weeks of Biden's election, that was accomplished by the previous administration. A little know fact about oil and prices not published: Subject: OSZ on X: "Days with crude oil above $100 USD a barrel Obama: 🔴 308 days Trump 1st: 🟢 0 days Biden: 🟡 83 days Trump 2nd: 🟢 24 days" / X link Then Look at this, in the United States no less!! 😡
WASHINGTON, D.C. — Forty-three percent of Americans now have a positive view of socialism, marking the first time this figure has exceeded 39% in Gallup's trend since 2010. Socialism still trails capitalism and free enterprise in public favorability but now ranks ahead of big business. Small business remains the clear leader among the five economic concepts tested, with 95% viewing it positively.
Subject: Socialism's Positive Rating Tops 40% for First Time link As I said, this is not new. Has been going on since Vietnam but progressively getting worse since. |
Grattan54  | 25 Sep 2026 9:56 a.m. PST |
Haven't we tried to "blow the hell" out of them? How did that work out? So what are we going to do differently to annihilate, Trump's words, Iran? Or, in other words, blow the hell out of them? Nukes? Cuz I don't see another way we are going to achieve the annihilation of Iran as he proposed. we have depleted weapons stocks now. We going to use everything that we have up to blow the hell out of them? Once again, he makes a claim that he can't back up. Unless he intends to use nukes. I am tired of the bombast. |
StoneMtnMinis  | 25 Sep 2026 10:23 a.m. PST |
" It continues: "our gas is too high!" "Our food cost too much!". 😭" Good explanations for the cost of fuel(gas and diesel) which directly affect the cost of food. Plus a good example of the Rule of 96. link link link |
35thOVI  | 25 Sep 2026 10:40 a.m. PST |
And let's take one: diesel The MSM, democrats and some on TMP immediately place the Blame in the President and the war. But they ignore another major reason for the sudden spikes: The Ukrainian War and specifically Ukrainian drone strikes on the Russian diesel production. Why ignore? I'm not going to grace that with an answer. 😏 * The Ukrainian Drone Campaign: Ukraine has systematically targeted Russian industrial infrastructure using long-range drones (not drugs). According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), Ukrainian drones successfully struck a Russian refinery an average of every three days over the first eight months of 2026. [1, 2, 3, 4] * 2. Impact on Russia's Diesel Industry Ukrainian drone strikes have knocked out roughly 45% of Russia's total oil refining capacity, deeply impacting its largest diesel-producing plants. [1, 2, 3] * Production Drops: By mid-2026, Russia's diesel output fell by an estimated 30%, dropping to its lowest level in over 20 years. * * Export Restrictions: To combat domestic shortages and prevent fuel lines at home, Moscow was forced to enact strict export bans on diesel and gasoline. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5] * 3. Why This Drives Up Global and U.S. Prices Even though the U.S. does not directly import Russian oil, diesel is a globally traded commodity. When Russia—historically the world's second-largest exporter of diesel—suddenly removes hundreds of thousands of barrels from the global supply pool, it triggers a massive international scramble. This global shortfall pulls refined products out of the U.S. market via exports, driving pump prices to historic highs for American truckers, businesses, and consumers. Year Average Price (Per Gallon) Key Market Drivers 2022
(War Begins) $5.00 USD – $5.81 USD Initial Invasion Shock: Prices spiked immediately after Russia invaded Ukraine, hitting a peak of $5.81 USD in June 2022 due to immediate fears of global shortages and bans on Russian oil.
2026
(Current Year)$3.45 – $6.53 USD
The Double Crisis Spike: Diesel started the year low (around $3.45 USD), but exploded starting in February. The combination of the war in Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz alongside aggressive Ukrainian drone strikesknocking out 45% of Russia's refinery capacity forced prices to an all-time record high of $6.53 USD this month.
Funny how that rarely makes the media. More interesting facts? Historically, Russia has been the world's second-largest exporter of diesel (behind only the United States). Its global market share by year from the start of the war to 2026 breaks down as follows: 2026 (Current Year): Dropping to ~0% (Out of Global Markets) — This year marked a total collapse in Russian exports. Intensifying Ukrainian drone strikes knocked out roughly 45% of Russian refining infrastructure. Faced with massive domestic shortages, Moscow enacted a strict, comprehensive diesel export ban, effectively wiping its 10%–11% supply contribution completely off the global market. <\q>
|
SBminisguy  | 25 Sep 2026 11:14 a.m. PST |
Haven't we tried to "blow the hell" out of them? How did that work out? So what are we going to do differently to annihilate, Trump's words, Iran? Or, in other words, blow the hell out of them? No. We stopped. Trump's not referring to the military and facility strikes. He mentioned "regime" in his speeches.We did "blow the hell" out of the Tier 1 regime leadership and some of the Tier 2 leadership, leaving a cardboard cutout fronted by the IRGC "in charge." I don't think we should have stopped, but it is what it is. If Trump continues it should be to "blow the hell" out of every Iranian regime leader that can be targeted, and keep at it until we reach someone who values living more than their ideology. Now this is just a joke -- but you get the idea: YouTube link |
35thOVI  | 25 Sep 2026 11:51 a.m. PST |
SB we agree. I too think Trump should have continued. No respite. But he doesn't answer my emails. Maybe you will have better luck. 😉 Just saw this Saudi Arabia's September crude exports are on track to reach 5.28 million barrels per day, the highest level since the U.S.-Iran military conflict began in late February. Following damage to the East-West Pipeline, the kingdom has rapidly expanded shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, selling approximately 100 million barrels to Asian buyers including Japan since the latter half of this month. Crude prices rose roughly 4% amid Iran's hardline stance and Houthi missile attacks. Reports of a potential U.S. diesel export ban also rattled markets, though the White House has denied the claims. … The immediate catalyst for the export surge is damage to the pipeline connecting the country's eastern and western regions. The critical infrastructure, which transports crude to the Red Sea export hub of Yanbu, was attacked on September 10 and has yet to be fully restored. Saudi Aramco is in the early stages of restarting operations and aims for a full recovery by the 26th.
The 26th. That is quick. Subject: Saudi September Exports Headed for 5.28 Million Barrels, Highest Since U.S.-Iran Fighting Began — BigGo Finance link |
SBminisguy  | 25 Sep 2026 1:09 p.m. PST |
|
35thOVI  | 25 Sep 2026 1:24 p.m. PST |
I think we should let Israel back in. They are much better at hitting the leadership and don't have the same qualms we seem to have. |
Tortorella  | 25 Sep 2026 3:38 p.m. PST |
IMO, this stuff about oil prices coming down is not gonna happen. We may know more when Chevron has something to say, which will be never. Polls we don't like are always discredited, but the aggregate disapproval ratings for the admin. are approaching record lows. I don't watch the news and I don't trust info from the government, and polls can be wrong, but not this many all at once, including Fox. People are not believing much of what they hear. |
35thOVI  | 25 Sep 2026 4:38 p.m. PST |
The polls were not worth a crap in the primaries Tort, many horrendously so. The midterms may be rough, but don't use the polls to tell. Mainly democrats and independents will respond to them. I and my friend either don't answer if we don't recognize the number, tell them to #*{?<}###, lie to them or play games with them if we do answer at all. I know no republicans who answer them any longer. Why should we? They are almost all run by media liberals, and the questions are manipulated. |
doc mcb  | 25 Sep 2026 6:34 p.m. PST |
35th is correct. Polls at this point are cooked pro-Democrat. And my side doesn't play the game. FWIW, my prediction five weeks out (which is also worthless, fwiw!) is the House goes either way by single digit, and the GOP keeps the Senate. |
Grattan54  | 25 Sep 2026 6:40 p.m. PST |
Polls are always cooked pro-democrat until the Republicans are doing better in them. Then they become super accurate for some reason. Hmm. |
35thOVI  | 25 Sep 2026 6:45 p.m. PST |
🙄 I don't know why I waste my time placing actualities out here when so many rely on only opinions, but here you go… again. During the August 2026 midterm primaries, public opinion polling faced a series of highly publicized embarrassments across the Midwest, alongside the exposure of entirely fabricated polls passed off as a "social experiment." Primary polling has historically been difficult—averaging a 13-percentage-point error rate—but the latest cycle featured misses where leads of 20 points dissolved entirely by Election Day. [1, 2, 3] The most notable polling inaccuracies and fabrications from the recent primary cycle include: 1. The Wisconsin Democratic Gubernatorial Primary * The Inaccuracy: Multiple public polls showed progressive candidate Francesca Hong leading moderate David Crowley by as much as 20 to 22 percentage points heading into the final stretch. [1, 2] * * The Reality: Crowley pulled off a dramatic upset, defeating Hong by less than one percentage point. [1, 2] * * What Went Wrong: Legitimate outfits like State Navigate later analyzed their data and realized they modeled demographic targets that included too many young, progressive voters. They failed to anticipate the older, habitual voters who actually show up to low-turnout August primaries. [1, 2] * 2. The Median Strategies "Social Experiment" (WI, CA, NV) * The Inaccuracy: An organization calling itself Median Strategies began publishing highly professional-looking data that was amplified by major campaigns and news outlets. This included polls showing Francesca Hong up by 20+ points in Wisconsin, and a California poll showing Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass with a commanding double-digit lead over challenger Nithya Raman. [1, 2, 3] * * The Reality: The polls were entirely fake. Following an investigation by reporters at the Los Angeles Times, the creator—a 21-year-old recent college graduate—admitted that the firm was a hoax created as a "short-term social experiment" to show how quickly unverified information can infect mainstream politics. [1, 2, 3] * 3. The Michigan Senate Democratic Primary * The Inaccuracy: Public polling leading up to the August primary widely indicated that progressive candidate Abdul El-Sayed held a comfortable double-digit lead over moderate U.S. Representative Haley Stevens. [1, 2] * * The Reality: El-Sayed barely edged out Stevens, winning the primary nomination by a razor-thin 1 percentage point margin (fewer than 15,000 votes). [1, 2] * 4. The Minnesota Senate Democratic Primary * The Inaccuracy: Public surveys projected a highly competitive, dead-heat battle between incumbent Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan and U.S. Representative Angie Craig. [1] * * The Reality: Flanagan decisively defeated Craig by nearly 20 percentage points, completely defying the narrative built by prediction markets and public polls. [1] *
|
Tortorella  | 25 Sep 2026 7:32 p.m. PST |
Nonetheless, the aggregate is unusual. It may be that Iran, China, etc. understand the bitter divisions in the US as signs of weakness. The strident, constant blaming and hyperbole overload cannot be lost on them. A house divided cannot stand. They are waiting…. |
SBminisguy  | 25 Sep 2026 10:10 p.m. PST |
"They are waiting…." -- Nah, they are spending influence and $$ hand over fist on a "house divided." Why do you think the pro-Hamas people are also marching about with Iranian Islamic Republic flags? |
35thOVI  | 26 Sep 2026 4:38 a.m. PST |
"They are waiting…." -- Nah, they are spending influence and $$ hand over fist on a "house divided." Why do you think the pro-Hamas people are also marching about with Iranian Islamic Republic flags?
As we saw just in the last few days outside the UN. |
Tortorella  | 26 Sep 2026 5:29 a.m. PST |
Yes they are waiting ….my opinion…I would not make too much of those UN demonstrators. Yes the Chinese, Russians, Iranians, interfere as much as possible. But the Chinese especially are known for long game strategy. Why not let America wreck itself? With a little help? It's a gift they did not expect, and we have no answers. Sun Tze emphasizes dive and conquer, create chaos. We are doing that for our enemies. When we should be doing it to them…an internal takedown of Iran for example. The attempts to eliminate negative reporting on US leadership are signals as well. There is a lot of election anxiety on both sides. Some of may be externally provoked. But I never call out the hyperboles we are told each day about how everything is going well, the press is lying, just wait another month and gas will be down below $2 USD a gallon, and all the other anxiety induced promises and assessments. Xi knows exactly what is going on. Trump flinched at the noise from the flyover he ordered. Xi barely glanced up. He knows how to walk softly and hold his cards. A scary guy… |
35thOVI  | 26 Sep 2026 6:35 a.m. PST |
Tort, Yes he handled the ban badly. Prior to the current term The White House Correspondents' Association (WHCA) pretty much controlled who got direct access and it was predominantly those who "adhered" to their agenda and views. The list of "right" wing news who waited for "entry" was not insignificant. "Delays", "bureaucracy" was well known. This administration took it out of their hands. 😱 there was a great gnashing of teeth and pulling of hair over that by the MSM. But Trump should have followed Biden's lead. Have a "list" of "select" news organizations and individuals he was "allowed" to call on. Along with pre-written questions, given to them ahead of time. Trump: "Fox News, Peter you have a question?" Trump: "News Max, Yes Bill?" Trump: " Breitbart news, a question?" And there would have been a great gnashing of teeth, but they would be helpless, because they had done the same under Biden and to a somewhat similar way, under Obama, where it all started with, yes, Fox News. |
Tortorella  | 26 Sep 2026 8:04 a.m. PST |
Good points…there are ways to manage the press, but the worst thing you can do is fight them. They have trashed everybody throughout our history. But the law of the land is they get their say. Learn how to roll with it and turn them around. Reagan could do this. |
35thOVI  | 26 Sep 2026 11:03 a.m. PST |
Tort As you know, I have absolutely no faith in the mainstream media here or elsewhere. Nor do most of my friends. Just as many here feel about Fox, we feel exactly the same about the MSM. For instance, did you know we are on the verge of cutting the trade deficit with China by over half? Probably not, why? Because the MSM does not report it. That would be positive news. Now it is not all good though, as we have switched to other countries and are increasing our debt with them.. for instance Taiwan. But it is still positive news that goes unreported. We also just signed a new 30 billion trade deal with China. Subject: Rapid Response 47 on X: ""The trade deficit that we have with China is only growing…" @USTradeRep: "That's not true at all. It was $300 USDB coming into President Trump's term; we're now tracking to have only a $140 USDB deficit with China this year. The trade deficit in goods with China is down by 40%!… / X link Here is another, and quite long. But even more infuriating! I know this to be true and the media uses the "tracking totals" over 80% of the time! Why? Because it looks bad and fits the agenda before the election.
I posted the news in Saudi oil yesterday. Media ignores it. Why? Positive news again. Can't have that. But people continue to trust them. I can't go into all the lies and half truths from the previous administration. But they were monumental. Yet people still trust them. I understand why the current administration is so #### frustrated. I am too. Ok shipping and the Strait. (Yes long) The official numbers reported by traditional vessel tracking data tell only a fraction of the story right now. Maritime intelligence agencies and shipping analysts confirm that a massive number of vessels are actively bypassing official counts by employing "shadow fleet" tactics and going dark—meaning they switch off their Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponders. [1, 2] The discrepancy between the official data and what is actually happening on the water comes down to a few key factors: The "Dark Fleet" and Data Discrepancies * Underreported Transits: While official public trackers (like Kpler or IMF PortWatch) often report anywhere from 2 to 17 visible ships passing through daily, analysts estimate that up to two-thirds of outbound tankers are sneaking through undetected by turning off their transponders. [1, 2, 3] * The Scale of Shadow Movements: During the ongoing conflict, maritime data firms noted that while official daily numbers hovered in the single digits or low teens, nearly 900 tankers successfully trickled through the strait over a multi-month period using dark tactics to avoid naval blockades and missile threats. [1] * Independent Observations: Independent maritime researchers who have physically monitored the strait report seeing tankers pass through 4 to 5 at a time in closely packed formations with all tracking devices fully blacked out, confirming that AIS data misses a massive percentage of real traffic. [1] * Advanced Evasion: Beyond just turning off transponders, many vessels are utilizing aggressive GPS spoofing (which makes them appear on maps as if they are circling on dry land) or cloning the identification codes of entirely different, scrapped ships to blend in. Mainstream media reports often cite public data streams like Kpler, IMF PortWatch, or MarineTraffic without providing the necessary context that these tools only map visible, transponder-active ships. When headlines declare traffic is "near zero" based entirely on public databases, it inadvertently distorts public perception of how effective blockades are and how much oil is actually moving. [1, 2, 3, 4] Whether this omission is intentional narrative-spinning or simply a symptom of lazy, data-reliant journalism, the outcome is the same: it paints an inaccurate picture of the conflict. The dynamic between media reporting, data limitations, and the reality of the strait comes down to a few critical factors:
1. The Trap of "Visible Data" Journalism Most newsrooms rely on automated data feeds because they are clean, quantifiable, and easy to turn into charts. When a reporter looks at a dashboard showing only 3 to 17 trackable vessels in a day, they write the headline: "Traffic Plummets by 95%." [1, 2] However, maritime intelligence firms using synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellites paint a completely different picture. For example, during periods when public trackers showed almost zero activity, satellite sweeps revealed dozens of large vessels operating entirely dark within the strait simultaneously. By focusing only on the "clean" data, the media presents an exaggerated narrative of economic strangulation. [1, 2] 2. Shaping the Perception of Control Reporting strictly on public trackers serves distinct political and strategic narratives: * The Illusion of Blockade Success: Showing a ghost-town waterway allows coalition forces or blockading nations to project absolute control, signaling that their deterrence measures or sanctions are working perfectly. * Hiding the Sanction Bypasses: If the public knew that hundreds of millions of barrels of oil were still successfully slipping through the strait via the "shadow fleet", it would expose the limits of Western sanctions and naval enforcement. [1, 2, 3, 4] 3. The Dangerous Reality of "Going Dark" What the media frames as a total shutdown is actually a shift in tactics. Turning off Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponders used to be a trick reserved exclusively for rogue, sanctioned "shadow fleet" tankers. Because of the severity of the conflict, mainstream, commercial energy tankers have adopted the exact same behavior to survive. [1, 2] They are turning off their lights, cutting their transponders, and moving through the strait in tightly packed, silent convoys—sometimes even coordinating quietly with naval escorts off the grid. [1, 2] Tracking the Reality To get an accurate picture of the conflict, independent analysts have to look past the media reports and cross-reference multiple hidden layers: * Satellite Radar (SAR): Bypasses clouds and darkness to locate the physical steel hulls of dark ships.[1, 2] * Infrared & Optical Imagery: Used by tracking groups to verify if a "dark" ship is riding low in the water (meaning it successfully loaded oil) or riding high (empty). * Local Spotters: Maritime intelligence networks rely heavily on physical observers stationed in places like Oman's Musandam Peninsula, who visually count and log the massive blacked-out tankers passing through by eye.
[1, 2] The Strait of Hormuz is far from empty; the traffic has simply transitioned from a public highway into a highly active, off-the-books shadow corridor. [1, 2]
|
doc mcb  | 26 Sep 2026 11:55 a.m. PST |
Trump is everyone's worst enemy. Including his own. But he has made America's cause his own. Doubt I'll live long enough to see a balanced and objective treatment of his presidency. |
Oberlindes Sol LIC  | 26 Sep 2026 3:42 p.m. PST |
Forty-three percent of Americans now have a positive view of socialism, Affordable health care, education and economic opportunity, and access to housing all get called socialism. That seems to be a convincing argument for socialism. |
Tortorella  | 26 Sep 2026 3:52 p.m. PST |
35th…I am getting news now only from NYT and social media, see WH posts, including today's gaggle with the press. Trump said he would not accept Iran's version of the deal. He repeatedly mispronounced Hormuz, but he seemed more focused than he has lately. But he will not hit Iran again until after the election. I don't see why he should wait. I do not like giving Iran this time to sneak in more missiles, stock up on drones. Trump said to day that Iran is out of money, broke. I think Xi and Putin would be glad to extend them some credit. You now how I think the game plan should go, but I think basically we both want the same outcome. Great info on the tankers, I knew oil was getting through but not the details of how they were doing it. Don't know where it's going, but we can guess. |
35thOVI  | 26 Sep 2026 4:15 p.m. PST |
Affordable health care, education and economic opportunity, and access to housing all get called socialism. That seems to be a convincing argument for socialism.
And California is a convincing argument against it. |
35thOVI  | 26 Sep 2026 4:27 p.m. PST |
Tort I have no respect for the NYT as well, but you already knew that. Just CNN in paper form imo. You also know I disagree with Trump on stopping the bombing and especially stopping Israel. You also know I despise the government of Iran and the people there who support it and placed it in power. I believe that what they believe, practice and support is the greatest evil and danger to western civilization that exists… short of all out nuclear war.. which I believe they would perpetuate, if they had them. I know Trump is getting pressure from Republicans prior to the election to hold back. But probably 30% of Republican politicians have no backbone and have the political savvy of a pomegranate. At least 10 to 15 percent of that number are RHINOs and as useless as teats on a boar hog. |
Tortorella  | 27 Sep 2026 8:15 a.m. PST |
Repubs are party loyalists and see the big picture, don't see sordid details. Better off with Trump than a Dem for them. But by now, questions about how the war is being prosecuted cross party lines. Repubs were willing to go along with it until it stalled. They were promised no wars. But its the way the way is being run that is the home front issue. Most are still loyal, but some are not on that issue. Its pretty safe to say that there is not much support for the way the war is being handled across the board. Repub support has slipped, and independents, who now make up a record 48% of all voters, are overwhelmingly against the way the war has been run. So politics is having a direct impact on the prosecution of the war, as Trump all but said on Saturday. It shows how sometimes, we can't discuss modern global conflict without having to consider it. |
35thOVI  | 27 Sep 2026 9:04 a.m. PST |
Tort there were always a group of republicans who opposed it, not because they were against it. I will give you one and he is irked because Trump will not support him and said "mean things" 😭 He votes not out of principle, but strictly from spite and he is not alone Congressional Action: Massie has consistently pushed back against presidential military actions involving Iran. He worked with Democrats to force war powers and congressional votes to block or question military escalations.
I have always given the democrats credit for two things, they vote together almost constantly (like hogs feeding at a trough) and they have more political savvy than most Republican politicians. I doubt most Democrats oppose the conflict, they just can't stand Trump waged it and are afraid he might get credit for bringing Iran down. Actually probably the same reason many oppose it here. Better we look bad, then Trump have success (it's not Trump fellows, it's the U.S.!). I was bloody happy we got Osama bin Laden. Did not wish he escaped just because a man I had no respect for at all, was President. Too bad others cannot put politics aside for the betterment of the World. |
Tortorella  | 27 Sep 2026 10:02 a.m. PST |
Exactly, it is about the USA. I am all for the President getting a win, despite my disdain for his personal conduct, and I have said so before. If he can take down the mullahs, it will be the the major achievement he wants, and the world will have to recognize it. |
35thOVI  | 27 Sep 2026 10:09 a.m. PST |
Tort we agree. But my remarks were made in reference to others, you knew that. 😉 |
|