"Since Fall 2024, actors affiliated with the Russian state have been responsible for, or associated with, a growing series of disruptive incidents near the Baltic Sea. The incidents, conducted by an increasingly militarized shadow fleet of commercial vessels, involve various forms of territorial violations, disruptions in commerce, and acts of intimidation directed against countries bordering the sea. The increasingly aggressive maritime "grey zone" operations have become more sophisticated in recent months and have coincided with a more militant Russian posture toward Baltic members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). While Russia has a long history of hybrid warfare operations in the Baltic region, the newest campaign bears striking similarities to the "maritime insurgency" tactics China has employed over the past decade to assert its dominance over the South China Sea.
A maritime insurgency occurs when a nation attempts to contest the freedom and security of international waterways using coercive methods short of war to reshape regional order. For China, this maritime insurgency has been waged primarily by its maritime militia, a vast network of thousands of fishing vessels coordinated by regional governments and deeply integrated into the operations of the China Coast Guard and People's Liberation Army Navy. China has used the maritime militia to harass foreign mariners and seize disputed islands in an effort to exert greater control over the South China Sea and prepare for an invasion of Taiwan.
While the Chinese campaign has its own unique character, Russia appears to have translated and adapted some of China's insurgent tactics to its own institutions and purposes. Chief among these is the use of its shadow fleet as civilian paramilitary vessels to conduct disruptive operations and support conventional naval power.
This essay suggests that the shadow fleet, rather than just serving as a means of moving sanctioned oil, appears to be increasingly serving as a platform for conducting covert maritime operations such as sabotage and intelligence collection, as well as advance guards for conventional naval forces. Trends in Russia's use of the shadow fleet in the Baltic since 2024 further suggest that it may be organizing these activities as part of a coordinated campaign of aggressive maritime operations below the threshold of war to test NATO's cohesion and shape the conditions for a potential future invasion of the Baltic States…"
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Armand
takes inspiration from Doctor Who.