"On May 13, Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping spoke at a bilateral meeting inaugurating their second summit in Beijing and their sixth meeting altogether. In his welcoming remarks, Xi grandly declared the world had come to a "new crossroads."
Amid a four-year-old war between Russia and Ukraine and two months of American military strikes against Iran, Xi inquired whether "China and the United States [can] overcome the Thucydides Trap and create a new paradigm of major country relations? Can we meet global challenges together and provide more stability for the world?"
While conjuring crossroads and paradigms underscored the potential upside of summitry between the world's two greatest powers, it was the invocation of the Thucydides Trap that captured everyone's attention.
According to Graham Allison of Harvard University, the American scholar who originated the thesis, states ensnared in the Thucydides Trap go to war in three out of every four encounters. For vigilant American national security observers and decision-makers, such odds make preparing for a potential war with an ascendant PRC an imperative…"
link
Armand