"Iran – America's Vietnam?" Topic

"From all I read in their news services, Israel wants back in" sounds like selection bias.

Just today, Bezalel Smotrich said Israel has "no interest" in joining the renewed U.S. military campaign against Iran because the current situation benefits Israel.

And the Pentagon is running out of money.
And we are running out of missiles.
And China is happily supplying targeting information.
And China is smiling in a sinister Fu-Manchu way as we degrade our ability to defend Taiwan.

Interesting many who know more than anyone here knows about this situation disagrees. I've been listening to Ret US Military senior officers all day. Those don't seem to be accurate assessments … But some people believe the Earth is flat too …

Much more of this continual bombing and we would not be able to defend Taiwan.

Don't the Chicoms need oil from Iran ? How can they attack Taiwan without enough of this critical Class of Supply ?

Then, given we need materials from China to make new weapons,

The US has found alternate sources for those materials needed from China.

I doubt China would sell us more materials if they were attacking Taiwan.

I doubt they would attack Taiwan if the US continues to have strong leadership and a strong well trained, well-armed military. It was clear the past POTUS and his Admin were not up to the task of keeping the US safe. That Admin even created, supported, etc. initiatives that actually did the opposite and many Americans died because of that incompetence.

Long-term this war was not well thought out.

In the short term with only 6 months in of this conflict. It is much too soon to make that not too well thought out statement.

Plus as I always state we don't know all of what is going on clandestinely and covertly. Which makes that statement even more poorly thought out …

Le Monde

Israel is now considering a new military operation against Iran, amid ongoing escalation between Tehran and Washington. In an interview with the daily newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth on Monday, defense ministry representatives, speaking under cover of anonymity, said that the end of the World Cup in the US had removed "the last barriers" preventing the conflict from intensifying, and that they also saw an opportunity to "finish the job" of destroying Iran's nuclear program. When contacted by Le Monde, the Israeli Defense Ministry declined

Le Monde

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his inner circle are actively pushing for a decisive resumption of military action against Iran. Eager to strike high-value Iranian nuclear and energy infrastructure, Israeli officials argue that the current standoff offers a prime opportunity to "finish the job".

Times of Israel

If anything, Israel would relish the opportunity to get in the fight.

Iran is well aware of what Israel is capable of. It was Israel — not the US — that took out dozens of Iranian leaders, including supreme leader Ali Khamenei, in both wars it has launched against Tehran.

As Iran's foreign minister has indicated publicly, Israel has shown that its intelligence services have penetrated the regime deeply. If Israel is forced into the fight by an Iranian attack, or given the green light by Trump, it could well have more tricks up its sleeve, something comparable to the secret drone base it set up within Iran ahead of the 2025 Operation Rising Lion.

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Israel has a tendency to like to finish what they started. But the line there now is, we will wait on the sidelines as Trump has asked us to do…. "Unless we are attacked".

From this point forward, any time the Islamic Republic of Iran shoots at a ship in the Strait of Hormuz, whether it be by Missile, Rocket, Drone, or any other device or weapon, the United States will bomb and destroy ONE BRIDGE OR POWER PLANT, including those located next to, or in, the Capital City of Tehran. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP

On this topic, Legion, I disagree about the past POTUS being up to the task. Ultimately he would have failed, I suppose, as his health declined. But we began the strategic shift to the Pacific under Obama, and Biden remains the only POTUS who stated publicly that America would defend Taiwan against attack. For all his failings, like the Afghan debacle, he took a stance on some things.

I guess its official now – what we have been told about last years attack results was not true.

I don't think this war was fully thought out by the top WH people, or they were over-ridden. But that does not mean they cannot successfully finish it. Again, listen to your generals and security people, find someone qualified, not Pulte, to lead the intel who will tell you the facts. This unilateral one-man rule stuff may or may not be happening. But it walks and talks like a duck.. POTUS needs to accept some help. He can have the glory.

Not sure that I get the rational behind today's news that the US is green lighting another Middle East country to enrich Uranium while going after another one for the same thing. Especially given their track record.

I think it is another impulse driven decision. Why would we want Saudi Arabia to have the ability to make nukes. Hmmm, remind me, where were most of the terrorists on 911 from again? Oh, that is right. Also, certain family business concerns could be a motive as well. Just a bad decision.

Did you all read full articles or just headlines?

First let me say, I'm never thrilled with any Muslim countries having nuke anything. Never know when they may go radical Islam.

But some facts.

The accord has been under discussion for years, and during the Biden administration it was envisioned as part of a broader deal that would include Saudi diplomatic recognition of Israel. But after the Oct. 7, 2023, attacks on Israel by Hamas, that prospect receded. President Trump separated the proposal for U.S.-Saudi civilian nuclear cooperation from any demand that Saudi Arabia recognize Israel.
….
During the Biden administration, the United States and Saudi Arabia were also discussing a mutual defense agreement, as part of the broad plan that would include nuclear cooperation in exchange for Saudi recognition of Israel. The Saudis have long pressed U.S. officials for a mutual defense agreement that would be ratified by the Senate, so that future American presidents could not easily back out of one. Saudi officials wanted such an agreement in part to deter against Iranian aggression.

Where was everyone? 😱

Muslim countries in the Middle East with peaceful nuclear energy programs allowed by the United States are the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Jordan, and Saudi Arabia.

United Arab Emirates (UAE): Signed a formal civilian nuclear cooperation ("123 Agreement") under President Barack Obama in 2009. This agreement, often referred to as the "gold standard," allows the UAE to operate peaceful nuclear reactors but legally binds them from enriching uranium or reprocessing spent fuel domestically.

Jordan: Signed a Section 123 Agreement for peaceful nuclear cooperation under President Barack Obama in 2009.

Saudi Arabia: Signed a landmark 30-year civilian nuclear agreement (Section 123 Agreement) under President Donald Trump, which established a legal framework for U.S. companies to build nuclear reactors in the Kingdom.

First: 2 under Barrack the magnificent? 😱

Again where were you?

Second: Trump's to my knowledge, has to be approved by Congress.

Subject: Trump Administration to Announce Deal That Could Let Saudis Enrich Nuclear Fuel – The New York Times


link

Did the media make an issue out of Barrack's or Biden's potential agreement? 🤔

Again, am I crazy about it? No.

But if you oppose the Saudi one, you should be ecstatic about the current Iranian conflict attempting to prevent a very radical fundamentalist Islamic regime from having any.

True?

FYI Saudi's is supposed to be peaceful. Irans??? 😏 yes, no way!

I m not a fan of any deal that proliferates enrichment capabilities. Whether by past or current administrations, or other countries.

For civilian nuclear programs (<5% enrichment) and civilian research (<20% enrichment) the Uranium can be sourced from outside the country.
There is no necessity to have enrichment capabilities for either civilian power or civilian research needs. True, it gives the country a bit more security of supply, but there are enough supply options as it is everyone's incentive to prevent enrichment proliferation.

Having enrichment to get to 5% or even 20% is essentially dual use technology and can be used to enrich further for military applications. Even with safeguards, this is a dangerous path. From what I am seeing, the safeguards look to not be the gold standard.

Bottom line – I am currently, and always have been, against enrichment proliferation independent of the political party doing it.
On Iran, like North Korea, they have enrichment capability so it is a different discussion. It becomes a whole lot more complicated to remove capability than to prevent capability in the first place.

IMO, this deal was part of the 2 billion payout from the Saudis to Kushner, whose business was in trouble, at the end of the last term. Without recognition of Israel, it makes no sense. Just as the Accords were not a peace agreement what with leaving out the Palestinians.

More nuke material in the ME is just not good. I don't consider the Saudis America's friends. Why do this now? I hope there is some reason not yet revealed, and not just more business.

Comparing the 2 is nonsense. If the war goes on for another 7.5 years I'll reconsider.

I disagree about the past POTUS being up to the task.

Frankly I don't see how anyone could say anything like that … But no need to get into a debate. The truth is becoming more and more obvious.

I guess its official now – what we have been told about last years attack results was not true.

How can that be accurate ? All Iran has done was move some centrifuges underground. Those can be handled. And the sites US B-2s, etc. took out latest year. Are still buried deep under rubble. It would take a lot of labor and material to dig any of that out. Not to mention, the threat of radioactive contamination.

So then I am wrong, I get it. But we have now gone to war because Iran was recently on the brink of getting a nuclear weapon a few months later. This must be the part I don't get.

Not thrilled with Muslim nations getting these, but here are details

President Donald Trump said Thursday the proposed U.S.-Saudi civil nuclear deal will be approved only if Saudi Arabia joins the Abraham Accords.

Trump added there would be "no enrichment of material" under the agreement and that it would be limited to non-military civilian nuclear use.

"The Civil Nuclear Deal (There will be no enrichment of material!) being made between the United States Department of Energy and Saudi Arabia, which pertains only to non-military use such as the ones that Iran and UAE (and others) already have, will be approved, but is totally subject to Saudi Arabia joining the very respected and successful Abraham Accords," Trump wrote on Truth Social. "The United States is not opposed to Civil (Non-Enriched) Nuclear Facilities. Thank you for your attention to this matter!"

A little confused by that statement, but hopefully it means that they will not have enrichment technology.
My confusion comes over the part where it says "civil (non-enriched) nuclear facilities". As far as I am aware there is only one type of current nuclear reactor that uses non-enriched uranium, and I am sure that the administration is not proposing them, as they are Canadian nuclear reactors.

There are more countries that used them as India, Argentina, China, South Korea, Romania, and Pakistan.

Argentina officially began developing nuclear energy in 1950 with the creation of the National Atomic Energy Commission (CNEA), making it a pioneer in Latin American nuclear science.

Peace Science…

Armand

But we have now gone to war because Iran was recently on the brink of getting a nuclear weapon a few months later.

And note they are still trying to get nukes. So stopping them from getting nukes means we have to do more attrition.

Yes, but my point was that something is off in Trump's assurances last year then. If we made the materials inaccessible then, how did Iran reach the brink of having a nuke so quickly thereafter? Need to know secrets are one thing, but both these things are logically not compatible.

BTW, the Pentagon has reduced the casualty list by three, directed to not count the deaths that occurred during the "cease fire" – which saw numerous combat actions. What kind of respect is this? This reminds me of the Trump tweet about his war being better than others because there were less people killed.

I also don't follow how there's no enrichment for a nuclear reactor unless it's heavy water.
It seems unlikely they are using heavy water or invented a new technology.

Fake news, didn't happen.

But we have now gone to war because Iran was recently on the brink of getting a nuclear weapon a few months later.

I've been hearing for ten years or longer that Iran was "only 6 months away" from being able to make a nuclear weapon.

So, where is the enriched uranium now? Have we seized it yet? Does anyone really believe that Iran will turn it over?

If we made the materials inaccessible then, how did Iran reach the brink of having a nuke so quickly thereafter?

We may never know … rumors were they some how got some from somewhere. But what if that is not a just rumor ? And can we trust the Chicoms and/or the Russians ?

BTW, the Pentagon has reduced the casualty list by three, directed to not count the deaths that occurred during the "cease fire" – which saw numerous combat actions

What 3 KIAs were those ?

Were they from direct combat or accident, e.g. one was trying to defuse a downed Iranian drone? I have not heard this … But … Who, what, where ?

If you are not killed in a combat action, e.g. enemy shelling, aircraft shootdown, etc. The casualties were killed by "accidents" without some enemy contact, incoming, etc. They are not KIAs …

It seems unlikely they are using heavy water or invented a new technology.

I don't know where the heavy water came from ? That is very old tech.

"only 6 months away" from being able to make a nuclear weapon.

We may really never know … However, nukes are a 0 – sum concept. Better to err on the side of caution. Then find out by some target being nuked … I.e. threat mitigation …

So, where is the enriched uranium now?

If any intel US or IDF know they are not saying. This is still an ongoing operation. What difference does it make for the media, etc. have to know ? It's important that those that need to know … do know … And I'm sure it is very classified. No one here or in the media, etc. need to know.

Have we seized it yet?

Unlikely if it was buried be the B-2, TLAMs, etc. It would take a major effort requiring heavy engineering/construction, a Bn of CEs or more, take a lot of time, etc.

Plus the threat of radiation contamination, etc.

Even after all the time and effort to get to into the buried underground facilities. Even if there are no radioactive leak(s)/ high signatures, etc.

The material would have to be put in e.g. heavy lead lined, etc. containers.

Then even if brought to the surface. Those heavy rad containment containers would have to get to a working airfield. Before being loaded on aircraft.

And depending on the number of containers plus their weight. The number of lift aircraft [e.g. C-17s and/or C5Ns] would most likely require many sorties. To get all that toxic material out of Iran, etc.

So to answer your query … No …

Does anyone really believe that Iran will turn it over?

I don't think anyone seriously think Iran will turn over anything that has to do with nukes. However, again Iran is not going to do anything unless it assists their plans to start their version of the End Times.

E.g. like the IJFs of WWII. They will fight until all the islamists who have not be killed or not flee are no longer a threat. The US[[and IDF] has to finish these islamic madmen off …

Or in time they will get nukes and start their plans to start their quest for End Times … all over again …

Just heard on FOX/Newsmax that CENTCOM CDR recommended that strikes stop/pause. As intel reports the strikes on Iran has inflicted as much damage as possible at this point. No longer obtaining much effect at this time.

US combat assets are still deploying to region …

As I have said, we don't get the intel that those in the WH, DOW, etc. do …

Will be interested in seeing next moves …

Reports are Saudia Arabia is striking targets in Iran and Yemen …

The IDF is prepping to attack targets in Iran when required. They don't want the islamists still in charge of Iran.

The Ukraine has hit an Iranian vessel bringing oil to Russia. So the war expands to that front …

Like any conflict … it is like a Chess Game, so to speak … move – countermove – counter: countermove, repeat …

Well as in Vietnam … Russia and the Chicoms are giving this time Iran instead of the NVA critical intel. With the result being more accurate targeting of US assets in the region. Including not just troop and equipment locations but CIA stations.

Legion everything except the 20% we have held off from hitting according to government sources

Russia is supposedly getting even for our intel to the Ukraine. But really just being Russians. Political for all sides.

Chicoms just being the dirty commies they have always been. 😉

This sums things up perfectly:
YouTube link

NB the fourth verse seems appro.

OVI +1

NB the fourth verse seems appro.

I consider the source who recommended it … won't waste my time watching. I am probably already aware of the continuing narrative.

I feel there is a groundswell of support for Buffalo Springfield here so here's another song relevant to this topic & the Iran War – from Bob, this time:
YouTube link

Very prescient is our Bob.