""After Waterloo"- where to next?" Topic

Campaign Update: July 1815.

Gentlemen,

Following the recent Battle of Mechelin, in which the Anglo-Hanoverian force was trounced, the strategic situation has changed considerably.
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ANGLO-HANOVERIANS:

Although not decisively defeated, Wellington's army has suffered sufficiently to abandon further operations on the Continent for the present. The army has withdrawn to England to refit, absorb reinforcements and prepare for a future campaign. It is therefore out of the immediate campaign, although another British landing cannot be ruled out later.

PRUSSIA:

The Prussian Army has endured a disastrous series of defeats:

Wavre
Plancenoit
Two subsequent rearguard actions during its retreat

While still a formidable force on paper, it is in no condition to resume offensive operations. Reorganisation and reinforcement will occupy the Prussians for some time.

RUSSIA:

Russian armies continue their advance towards Central Europe but at a measured pace. Whether this reflects logistical necessity or a deliberate political strategy remains unclear. Every week that France and her enemies weaken one another serves Russian interests.

AUSTRIA:

Austria presents the greatest uncertainty.

Despite being a member of the Coalition, Vienna has shown little enthusiasm for immediate offensive operations. Diplomatic exchanges continue while Austrian armies advance, if at all, only cautiously.

The family connection between Emperor Napoleon and the Austrian Imperial House, through Empress Marie Louise, has inevitably led to speculation that Austria may seek a negotiated settlement rather than a prolonged war.

While a formal alliance between France and Austria appears unlikely, an armistice or prolonged diplomatic negotiations cannot be discounted.

THE STRATEGIC SITUATION:

Since Waterloo, Napoleon has seized and kept the initiative.

Britain has withdrawn.

Prussia is recovering.

Austria hesitates.

Russia advances steadily but remains some distance from the decisive theatre of operations.

The Emperor now has a rare opportunity to choose where and when the next major battle will be fought.

Whether he seeks to strike the advancing Russians before they can fully concentrate, or waits for events to unfold, remains to be seen.

The campaign continues…
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Fellow-TMPers: If you were advising Napoleon, or the governments in Vienna, London, Berlin or St Petersburg, what course would you recommend? What might the next battle be?

I would think that the Russians upon hearing the defeat of the British and Prussians would turn around. The thought of going into the lion's den alone wouldn't be a pleasurable thought….and did the Russians ever really trust the Austrians after the marriage of Napoleon and Josephine?
I think it's either peace on Napoleon's terms, or the French go back to Spain and Portugal to settle some unfinished nasty business.

In what condition are the French forces?

Advice to Napoleon – make peace whilst you can and learn from the mistakes of 1813 and 1814

For Russia and Austria and Prussia, re assemble and go again, smirk at the British being chased off and then back to business, the Tsar was on a holy mission (as he saw it) and setbacks to others wont deter him

The marriage and indeed alliance between Napoleon and the Habsburgs did not stop Austria joining the 6th Coalition and driving on Paris in 1813-14, doubt it would change horses now

@ cavcrazy. Highly likely….but your first premise kills my campaign dead before its barely gotten started & your second would involve battles we don't have troops for- particularly Spanish & Portuguese. So I'm afraid the Peninsula will remain peaceful.

@korsun0

My campaign does *not* include detailed logistics, casualty rates, recruitment notes etc.

I'm a wargamer not a book keeper.

And keep in mind this is a 'counter-factual' & not strictly speaking history eg Nansouty led a cavalry brigade at the recent Mechelin even though he was actually dead.

So, my premise is that losses at Waterloo were reasonably light & more than compensated for by the hordes of Dutch-Belgians flocking to the eagles after the battle. Not to mention, a constant stream of re-enforcements coming up from France & munitions & cavalry mounts captured at Mont Saint Jean.

So, short answer is – pretty good.

Good points, John.

I certainly agree that Russia is unlikely to be deterred. Alexander seemed determined to see Napoleon removed once and for all. However, a couple of severe defeats might see the Tsar "removed" by his nobles & peace achieved.

I'm less convinced about Austria, though. In 1813 Austria only joined the Coalition after Napoleon's fortunes had already taken a dramatic turn for the worse following the Russian campaign. By then it was becoming increasingly clear which way the war was going.

In this campaign the situation is rather different. Napoleon has defeated the Anglo-Allied and Prussian armies and currently holds the strategic initiative. That doesn't necessarily mean Austria would switch sides but I do wonder whether Vienna might become rather more cautious and perhaps prefer negotiation or an armistice while events unfold.

That's one of the things I'm trying to explore with this campaign! And I am making it up as I go along.

I will convey your advice to Napoleon but I'm not sure he will heed it.

No problem Ochoin, I didn't mean numbers. Your last two lines sum it up pretty well:
"So, my premise is that losses at Waterloo were reasonably light & more than compensated for by the hordes of Dutch-Belgians flocking to the eagles after the battle. Not to mention, a constant stream of re-enforcements coming up from France & munitions & cavalry mounts captured at Mont Saint Jean.

So, short answer is – pretty good."

Well the smart thing for Nappy would be re-constructing the Federation of the Rhine. This would gave him some breathing space.

Not sure if you have the troops for this, still you could use Prussia, Austrian, and Russian troops.

Denmark, Bavaria and even Swedes could also be used!