""After Waterloo"- where to next?" Topic

Campaign Update: July 1815.

Gentlemen,

Following the recent Battle of Mechelin, in which the Anglo-Hanoverian force was trounced, the strategic situation has changed considerably.
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ANGLO-HANOVERIANS:

Although not decisively defeated, Wellington's army has suffered sufficiently to abandon further operations on the Continent for the present. The army has withdrawn to England to refit, absorb reinforcements and prepare for a future campaign. It is therefore out of the immediate campaign, although another British landing cannot be ruled out later.

PRUSSIA:

The Prussian Army has endured a disastrous series of defeats:

Wavre
Plancenoit
Two subsequent rearguard actions during its retreat

While still a formidable force on paper, it is in no condition to resume offensive operations. Reorganisation and reinforcement will occupy the Prussians for some time.

RUSSIA:

Russian armies continue their advance towards Central Europe but at a measured pace. Whether this reflects logistical necessity or a deliberate political strategy remains unclear. Every week that France and her enemies weaken one another serves Russian interests.

AUSTRIA:

Austria presents the greatest uncertainty.

Despite being a member of the Coalition, Vienna has shown little enthusiasm for immediate offensive operations. Diplomatic exchanges continue while Austrian armies advance, if at all, only cautiously.

The family connection between Emperor Napoleon and the Austrian Imperial House, through Empress Marie Louise, has inevitably led to speculation that Austria may seek a negotiated settlement rather than a prolonged war.

While a formal alliance between France and Austria appears unlikely, an armistice or prolonged diplomatic negotiations cannot be discounted.

THE STRATEGIC SITUATION:

Since Waterloo, Napoleon has seized and kept the initiative.

Britain has withdrawn.

Prussia is recovering.

Austria hesitates.

Russia advances steadily but remains some distance from the decisive theatre of operations.

The Emperor now has a rare opportunity to choose where and when the next major battle will be fought.

Whether he seeks to strike the advancing Russians before they can fully concentrate, or waits for events to unfold, remains to be seen.

The campaign continues…
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Fellow-TMPers: If you were advising Napoleon, or the governments in Vienna, London, Berlin or St Petersburg, what course would you recommend? What might the next battle be?

I would think that the Russians upon hearing the defeat of the British and Prussians would turn around. The thought of going into the lion's den alone wouldn't be a pleasurable thought….and did the Russians ever really trust the Austrians after the marriage of Napoleon and Josephine?
I think it's either peace on Napoleon's terms, or the French go back to Spain and Portugal to settle some unfinished nasty business.

In what condition are the French forces?

Advice to Napoleon – make peace whilst you can and learn from the mistakes of 1813 and 1814

For Russia and Austria and Prussia, re assemble and go again, smirk at the British being chased off and then back to business, the Tsar was on a holy mission (as he saw it) and setbacks to others wont deter him

The marriage and indeed alliance between Napoleon and the Habsburgs did not stop Austria joining the 6th Coalition and driving on Paris in 1813-14, doubt it would change horses now

@ cavcrazy. Highly likely….but your first premise kills my campaign dead before its barely gotten started & your second would involve battles we don't have troops for- particularly Spanish & Portuguese. So I'm afraid the Peninsula will remain peaceful.

@korsun0

My campaign does *not* include detailed logistics, casualty rates, recruitment notes etc.

I'm a wargamer not a book keeper.

And keep in mind this is a 'counter-factual' & not strictly speaking history eg Nansouty led a cavalry brigade at the recent Mechelin even though he was actually dead.

So, my premise is that losses at Waterloo were reasonably light & more than compensated for by the hordes of Dutch-Belgians flocking to the eagles after the battle. Not to mention, a constant stream of re-enforcements coming up from France & munitions & cavalry mounts captured at Mont Saint Jean.

So, short answer is – pretty good.

Good points, John.

I certainly agree that Russia is unlikely to be deterred. Alexander seemed determined to see Napoleon removed once and for all. However, a couple of severe defeats might see the Tsar "removed" by his nobles & peace achieved.

I'm less convinced about Austria, though. In 1813 Austria only joined the Coalition after Napoleon's fortunes had already taken a dramatic turn for the worse following the Russian campaign. By then it was becoming increasingly clear which way the war was going.

In this campaign the situation is rather different. Napoleon has defeated the Anglo-Allied and Prussian armies and currently holds the strategic initiative. That doesn't necessarily mean Austria would switch sides but I do wonder whether Vienna might become rather more cautious and perhaps prefer negotiation or an armistice while events unfold.

That's one of the things I'm trying to explore with this campaign! And I am making it up as I go along.

I will convey your advice to Napoleon but I'm not sure he will heed it.

No problem Ochoin, I didn't mean numbers. Your last two lines sum it up pretty well:
"So, my premise is that losses at Waterloo were reasonably light & more than compensated for by the hordes of Dutch-Belgians flocking to the eagles after the battle. Not to mention, a constant stream of re-enforcements coming up from France & munitions & cavalry mounts captured at Mont Saint Jean.

So, short answer is – pretty good."

Well the smart thing for Nappy would be re-constructing the Federation of the Rhine. This would gave him some breathing space.

Not sure if you have the troops for this, still you could use Prussia, Austrian, and Russian troops.

Denmark, Bavaria and even Swedes could also be used!

JMCarroll makes a good point. I was going to suggest to Napoleon that he take the Hanseatic ports (to keep England out of Germany) and position himself for a drive on Berlin, but marching down the Rhine might be a better idea. Bringing back the Confederation of the Rhine would provide him with both troops and a buffer for the French frontier.
An aside: wasn't Austria active in Italy while Napoleon was running the Waterloo campaign?

I suspect the Russians will continue to plod forward under the decidedly dicey leadership of Alexander I with the usual great souled Russian habit of treating the territory of their allies like that of their enemies, while some of the German states like Saxony get a bit ambitious and the Prussians reckon that perhaps the best place for their troops right now – including the Guard – is at home

As for Austrians, I reckon that Francis I will recall his paternal affection for his son-in-law and have Schwarzenberg and the Army of the Upper Rhine take a very very slow go approach while a deal could be negotiated that would help maintain the Hapsburgs into perpetuity

As for the Brits, I think a defeat at Waterloo would be the last straw for the British tax payer and there would be considerable pressure for a negotiated peace – having passed the Corn Act in March, the last thing Lord Liverpool would have wanted was more debt and more taxes

The only way to get the Rheinbund back is to cut deals with Bavaria and Wurtemburg. However, that might upset the Austrians.

It might be worth N calling a 'ceasefire' at the 'natural borders' of France.

Make the Allies force a crossing of the Rhine.

I don't get it. The losses in the French army after all these battles will be tremendous, this isn't 1805, and all parties will grind each other down and this is a numbers game they can't win.
If this is a hindsight campaign, then how did Wellington and Blucher allow them to be caught separated again?

Napoleon would not allow the Prussians to recover… he would pursue them to destroy them as he did in 1806… a great achievement would be defeating them and then trying again with Poland.

Moving to the Rhine front and showing his father-in-law that he was willing to confront him again would allow him to strike a favorable deal with the Austrians and get rid of that enemy.

Armand

@ Billy. As I'm sure your close study of history tells you, Ney (the "Hero of Waterloo") and his impetuous cavalry charges broke several squares, causing the A-Hs to retreat (Wellington, in a hurry,leaving his hat behind, which was captured).

Meanwhile, the soon-to-be "Prince de Plancenoit" – Grouchy- marching to the 'Sound of the Guns' crushed the Prussians between Wavre & Plancenoit. Blucher had to retreat (in a hurry, leaving his boots etc etc).

NB this is a counter-factual.This is where I began & the 4 wargame battles so far stem from this.

I do take your point about numbers. The 1,000,000+ Grande Armee will not be seen in this campaign. Indeed, Michelin saw just under half of all the French I possess – a Line Corps, a brigade from the Cavalry Corps & 2 brigades of Imperial Guard were sent to fight the British.

Great suggestions, everyone. The Confederation may play a role (we have troops, especially lots of Poles).
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Campaign Update: August 1815
Austria proposes an armistice.

Not peace—just a 30-day suspension of hostilities while "diplomatic discussions" take place.

Napoleon will be tempted.

Russia will be furious.

Prussia will need the breathing space.

Britain, safely back across the Channel, can do little except protest.

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I have some units of Russians to finish painting & a pal ("Emperor Mal of the House of Habsburg ) who owns a large number of Austrians, has just started a re-basing task. So actual gaming will be paused, if not a flurry of emails between the 5 of us.

Austria could take advantage of a weakened Prussia to restore their lost influence in Germany.

While the French so far in this campaign may have suffered light casualties, they will not be getting veterans as replacements. He will be getting class of 1815/16 replacements.
These would make avg/poor recruits. Lowering the quality of his army.

As for the Prussians retreating after Wavre, re-read the 1813 campaign and the tactics the allies used against Nappy.
The Prussians still have two full corps, a Guard corp, and a large Landwher reserve untouched in Prussia.

The English army is far from defeated! The Royal navy can drop it at any place of their choosing. Least you forget all of the peninsula vets returning from America!

Many thanks for all the suggestions. One thing I've enjoyed is that there doesn't seem to be a consensus, which is exactly what I'd hoped for. Some favour Napoleon consolidating his position, others another offensive, while several have raised interesting political possibilities involving Austria and the German states. And some would have poor Napoleon sensibly making peace before I've finished painting the Opolchenie!

I'll take all that on board. The campaign will now move into a diplomatic phase before the next battle is fought. Once the Russians are painted—I mean, once they arrive on the frontier!—we'll see what Napoleon decides…