"Iran - What Worked, and What Didn't Work?" Topic

"the Iranians might want to be sure they are reading him correctly."

If you look at the MOU & subsequent events, the Iranians have read the US & Trump perfectly. Obviously you can't say "vice versa".
Simplistic readings of the "evil mullahs" has lead America into several, crucial mistakes in running this disastrous war.

The parallels with the American defeat in Vietnam are very striking.

I did not say Trump had a specific illness. Biden's issues were very different. Actually, IMO I think his increasing gaffs might be caused by stress. I am remarking on his style and Iranians reacting to it. There has not been another President like him that they have dealt with.

I understand where you guys are in this and get that you are sensitive. This guy has faults, but I keep giving him credit for trying to finally resolve Iran. I don't like him as a leader, but I don't hate him. He got into politics by attacking Obama's birth certificate, not because he was a victim.

Tort the article insinuated the President had aging mental disorders, as portrayed by Iranians NO LESS, posted by someone who has continuously posted anti Trump and anti U.S. posts.

Why would anyone take them seriously?

Now he is trying to draw parallels to Vietnam! 🤣😂

Tort and any others interested. You want to be scared? Read the platform of the Democratic Socialist of America. Recently coming to some news prominence with their elections in NYC and elsewhere. (DSA is a misnomer, as it is an umbrella for hardline socialist, communist and anti "Israeli" Muslims and anti "Zionists" liberals)

"Economy and Labor
* Union Power: Repeal anti-union laws and guarantee the right to strike.
* Worker Control: Support worker-owned cooperatives and collective ownership of large industries.
* Workplace Democracy: Ban at-will employment and mandate union representation on corporate boards.

Healthcare
* Medicare for All: Establish a single-payer system covering all medical, dental, and mental health needs.
* Free Care: Eliminate all premiums, co-pays, deductibles, and out-of-pocket costs.
* Reproductive Rights: Guarantee free, unrestricted access to abortion and all reproductive healthcare.
* Gender-Affirming Care: Protect and fully fund transition-related healthcare for all individuals.

Housing and Utilities
* Housing as a Right: Enact national rent control, ban evictions without just cause, and end homelessness.
* Social Housing: Massively fund and build decommodified, publicly owned housing.
* Public Utilities: Nationalize energy, water, and broadband grids to operate them democratically without profit.

Environment and Climate
* Green New Deal: Transition to 100% renewable energy through massive public investment and job guarantees.
* De-carbonization: Fully phase out fossil fuels and hold polluting corporations financially accountable.
* Environmental Justice: Prioritize clean water, air, and infrastructure investments in marginalized communities.

Civil Rights and Justice
* Abolition: Defund and dismantle the police, carceral systems, and prisons, shifting funds to social services.
* Decriminalization: End the war on drugs, sex work criminalization, and the cash bail system.
* Immigration: Abolish ICE and Border Patrol, end deportations, and open borders for free movement.

Electoral and Political Reform
* Democracy Expansion: Abolish the Senate and the Electoral College, and establish proportional representation.
* Voting Rights: Guarantee universal voter registration, prison voting rights, and make Election Day a holiday.
* D.C. Statehood: Grant immediate statehood and full congressional representation to Washington, D.C."

…

"The DSA's platform on its website calls for noncitizens and those with criminal convictions to receive full voting rights; statehood for Washington, D.C.; getting rid of the two-party system via proportional representation; increasing the number of House seats; having the president be elected by the popular vote and restricting judicial review by the Supreme Court."

Subject: Manhattan Institute on X: "The DSA's new platform, first exposed by MI's @thestustustudio last week, explicitly lays out the group's goal "to win the battle for democracy, draft a new constitution, and create a democratic socialist republic." These are the radical goals straight from their platform. t.co/SctqXCO0CK / X

link

This is not even in depth. It is out there on their sites and in their own words.

They achieve their aim, the United States as founded ends.

Even James Carville understands it.

"United States aircraft just struck Iranian missile and drone storage locations, and coastal radar sites, for violating the Cease Fire Agreement, AGAIN! It is very possible that they will never learn! There may come a point when we are no longer able to be reasonable, and will be forced to militarily complete the job that we very successfully started. If that happens, the Islamic Republic of Iran will no longer exist! President DJT"

"Now he is trying to draw parallels to Vietnam!"

I believe that the goals that the power to be initially set out to accomplish will not be achieve much like Vietnam (remember "peace with honor")

There will certainly be no unconditional surrender.

John since I have posted the goals on TMP
on multiple occasions, (not the media ones or the Trump hyperbole ones), with analysis of achievement, partially achieved, being negotiated for "full" completion.

Hint: there were 6.

Hint: Unconditional surrender was never one of the "official" stated goals.

Hint 2: almost every one of the actual 6 goals have been achieved to a certain percentage.

Could you list them again and the percent achieved for us please and explain how they will never be achieved?

No Iran is nothing like Vietnam. Just more of his consistent anti Trump/US posts.

An Iraq? With no ground game so far, not really. Nor Afghanistan. With no ground game, no comparisons.

Iran is its own unique animal. An animal the U.S. and Israel may have to return to on future occasions if we are going to use just air power.

All we have right now is a very iffy ceasefire with an agreement to come to an agreement.

Winning the War, Losing the Peace

"The United States and Israel were winning the 2026 campaign against Iran. Then Washington gave up the advantage. The June 17 memorandum it signed traded decisive leverage for a framework weaker than the 2015 nuclear deal and financed the adversary it was defeating. This analysis shows the siege was working and a disarmament settlement was within reach; addresses the "oil clock" case for a fast exit; and documents how Israel, a key partner in the campaign, was sidelined in the aftermath. Drawing on Clausewitz, joint doctrine, and Boyd's observe-orient-decide-act loop, it argues that halting a campaign which held the initiative forfeited the operational tempo that U.S. doctrine treats as decisive. None of it is yet irreversible: the memorandum is not a treaty, and the leverage that was breaking Iran can still be reclaimed. The outcome was a choice, not a necessity.

The United States and Israel were winning the war against Iran and winning it decisively. The cause was sound, a regime that had chanted death to America and Israel and acted on it for 47 years could not be left to acquire nuclear weapons, and the opening campaign was warranted. But on June 17, 2026, the United States failed to convert that advantage into a settlement. War, Clausewitz wrote, is the continuation of policy by other means. The fighting matters only for the political settlement it secures. To hold the battlefield and forfeit the settlement is the cardinal error of On War, and it is precisely what happened here.

The Memorandum of Understanding unveiled on June 17 is sold as peace through strength. It is the reverse, terms conceded from a position of dominance. Two days later, France said it would not approve the UN sanctions relief the memorandum promises Tehran unless its terms are met. When allies decline to endorse terms extracted from a breaking adversary, the terms are the problem…"

link

Armand

@ochoin

The parallels with the American defeat in Vietnam are very striking.

Maybe – but not the way you think.

I have a Vietnamese-American friend who escaped as a child after 1975. His father was an ARVN infantry officer on a communist death list. They lost family members, endured pirate attacks and horrors at sea as "boat people," and spent years in refugee camps before reaching the U.S. His story isn't unique — it represents millions who suffered because of how the war ended. Here's the key point: By the early 1970s, the U.S. had largely Vietnamized the war. South Vietnam, with American logistics, financial support, and airpower, was holding its own against the North. The ARVN fought credibly in the 1972 Easter Offensive (with U.S. air support). It wasn't perfect — corruption and leadership issues existed — but with consistent resupply, South Vietnam was defending itself.

WE WON THE VIETNAM WAR. With US help, South Vietnam was stablizing and able to handle itself.

And then the Democrats LOST THE VIETNAM WAR ON PURPOSE!

The "anti-War" Democrats swept into Congress and took over. Aid was slashed dramatically. The Case-Church Amendment and other measures blocked U.S. re-intervention, munitions and logistics support and even suppressed intel sharing. Meanwhile, the North was being massively re-armed by the USSR and China. In 1975, they launched a full mechanized invasion — tanks, APCs, artillery, supported by aircraft – attack jets flown not just by North Vietnamese pilots, but also Soviet pilots. Isolated ARVN units ran out of ammo, fuel, and spare parts. No U.S. air support. No intel. Nothing.

The Democrats cut South Vietnam off at the knees.

Saigon fell in weeks. What followed: re-education camps, executions, the boat people exodus, and the Killing Fields in Cambodia.

FOUR MILLION DEAD! SIX MILLION REFUGEES! A horror show. And all avoidable, all caused by the tragically awful ideological decisions of the Democrats of the day.

The lesson isn't "Vietnam was unwinnable." It's that an imperfect but holding position was turned into total defeat by domestic politics and severed support.

Fast-forward to today's talk about Iran. If we're confronting Iranian proxies, nuclear ambitions, or regional aggression, the same risk applies. If anti-war, isolationist voices (especially those prioritizing domestic politics over consistent foreign policy) dominate after November 2026, we could see the same pattern: initial pressure or support for partners, followed by abrupt cuts when the political winds shift. Many of the new "antiwar" Democrats are extremely anti-Israel (and I would argue, many are anti-Jewish) and want to cut Israel off at the knees while sending support to Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran.

Going one better than the 1970s anti-War Democrats -- they cut off aid to South Vietnam, but at least they didn't send aid to North Vietnam!

Adversaries like Iran (and its backers) are watching our staying power. Signaling weakness or abandonment doesn't lead to peace — it invites aggression and humanitarian disasters. We don't need forever wars. But we do need consistent strategy, realistic goals, and reliable support for allies so today's "imperfect victory" doesn't become tomorrow's horrific defeat.

I have a Vietnamese-American friend who…

argument by example is a weak form of argument.

argument by example is a weak form of argument.

Strawman + Missing the Point Fallacy. My example was not the basis of my argument, it was the intro to set the stage and humanize an important event in history. I then proceeded to use facts to make my case.

Do you agree or disagree that the Vietnam War was essentially Won until leftist Democrats created the conditions of defeat?

Do you acknowledge the deadly repercussions -- 4 million dead, 6 million refugees?

Do you feel my analogy applies to possible outcomes of the next US election if anti-war but also deeply anti-Israel and pro Hamas/Hezbollah/Iran leftists tip the balance of power in the US Congress?

@35thOVI
except for:
Civil Rights and Justice
* Abolition: Defund and dismantle the police, carceral systems, and prisons, shifting funds to social services.
…
* Immigration: Abolish ICE and Border Patrol, end deportations, and open borders for free movement.

everything is fine

I am under the impression that police in the USA is not trained on the job as it is done in Germany (30 month), so I see need for changes there, too.
Open border movement is BS, agreed.

Ending homelessness is almost impossible, at least here in Germany, because there are a lot of mental health issues.

But my point is: there are other ways to run a society, and mandatory health insurance is the norm around the world, except for the USA and maybe some exceptions I am not aware of. So no, I am not scared by the Democratic Socialist of America

Dogtail there are many impressions those overseas have about the U.S., who have not visited here, or have and base their opinions on blue cities or very liberal areas of the country, as many Europeans and others are finding during the soccer tournaments.

As I said previously: my impression of Ireland would be much different if I based my views on Dublin and the MSM alone.

Would you base your opinion on France solely on a visit to Paris, the voice of the MSM and the words of friends who never got further than Paris?

Yet, on TMP Thats exactly what others do. I will not attack another's country's politics, lifestyle, military, until an individual on TMP from that country decides they need comment on mine.

The police, ICE and other enforcement are no worse here. It is only the way they are portrayed by the predominantly liberal mainstream media. That is what others see.

As a young boy, I was told by my parents to always respect an officer of the law. Never back talk, never challenge, just "yes officer", "no officer". Same with my friends. Not always acquaintances. They might get smart and nasty. That is not what you do.

An officer says: "step out of the car", you step out of the car.
"Hands behind your head", put those hands behind your head.
These officers know nothing about you. You could have a gun, hyped up on drugs, illegal drug runners.

But there are some, especially in our inner cities, who start off antagonistic.. immediately. That is when things go down hill. The fact so many handle it well.. is amazing.

I rode with officers for criminology courses. The amount of 💩 and utter disrespect they put up with daily would amaze someone. Even actual physical assaults! Yes, my ride alongs were in the inner city and night shift.

Lastly, if that DSA agenda is ever implemented in US, the U.S. as founded ends.

"I understand where you guys are in this and get that you are sensitive"

It's very difficult to have an open discussion where several of the participants are fragile. I do sympathise and certainly wish things hadn't panned out so badly.

This article has some hard truths from Persians (anti-regime Iranians) about the war:
link

"….several of the participants are so very fragile."

🤔
Yet "I" have never "stifled" anyone on TMP.

"Fragility" must have multiple definitions.

Well, I am not sure things have turned out badly just yet. I don't think our friends are fragile either. But they can be dogmatic – as many of us are. I do think things are not going entirely well, but there are military outcomes that are favorable. The latest uncease fire is not a good sign for the war ending anytime soon, however. Since any agreement with the Iranian regime will not hold, IMO, we are just spinning our wheels. IMO.

I am not worried too much about Social Dems/MAGA Repubs…independents are shifting and change is likely coming, but radical groups from either extreme won't have the same pull, IMO.

Thinking about the Korean war, which has cost the US more than the entire New Deal. The armistice is a cease fire. The border barely changed, I think. South Korea has increased its spending share on defense, but the US keeps substantial forces there as it has for decades, keeping the barbarians at bay. Hundreds of billions in spending.

Do we want to guard the Strait in a similar commitment in the ME? Escorting vessels through some sort of toll booth that will never cover the cost? How much of the US navy is overdue for rotation? Logistics are tough. And all this is making the navy that much smaller vs China.

Great article Tango!
Everyone should take a moment and read it.

@Prince Alberts Revenge

I think you need to also reconsider your logic. Holding that personal accounts are not valid" is a weak and selectively applied claim. First, virtually all history begins with personal accounts. Ancient historians like Livy, Herodotus, Thucydides, and Tacitus relied heavily on eyewitness testimony, oral reports, and second-hand stories. Much of what we accept as "history" for Rome, Greece, the Middle Ages, or even early modern wars started as someone's personal experience or what they heard from participants.

If personal accounts are inherently invalid, then most of pre-20th century history collapses. We don't discard Caesar's Commentaries, the letters of Pliny the Younger, or survivor diaries from the Black Death or Napoleonic Wars just because they're "anecdotal."

Second, modern standards don't dismiss personal testimony — they evaluate it. A single story is limited. But when thousands of independent accounts converge (boat people survivors, ARVN veterans, U.S. diplomats, declassified documents, UNHCR records, North Vietnamese military histories), it becomes powerful evidence of a pattern.

My friend's experience isn't "just one anecdote." It's a primary source illustrating a well-documented phenomenon: the post-1975 refugee crisis that saw 1–2 million people flee Vietnam by sea, with estimates of 200,000–400,000 deaths, plus mass death in re-education camps and reprisals.

Dismissing it as invalid while accepting far thinner evidence for older events is inconsistent special pleading.Personal accounts are not the only evidence, but they are often the best evidence for the human reality of events. Statistics show scale. Documents show policy. Eyewitnesses show what it actually felt like and what it cost real people.

History without personal accounts becomes bloodless abstraction. The best historians — from Thucydides to modern scholars of genocide and war — integrate them. Dismissing them wholesale isn't rigor. It's rhetorical evasion to avoid dealing with my points.

This article has some hard truths from Persians (anti-regime Iranians) about the war:

It's not over yet. Dunno what will happen, but it feels to me now like Trump is inside everyone's OODA loop. When at first he was criticized for being too strong, too unilateral, too mean… now that he's been trying to get a peace deal in place, which is a flawed deal to negotiate a deal, Trump is being called too weak by the same critics! He's surrendered, he's betrayed the Iranian people, he's weak, he should have finished the job!

And we know, we armchair generals know that Iran won't keep a deal. So I suppose Trump knows too. And after many warnings being dismissed as bluster by the newly confident IRGC and Mullahs who are now being told by all the Western experts that TRUMP HAS SURRENDERED, they have all left their little ratholes and Fueher Bunkers to start posturing in public.

So…I suspect… more BOOM! is coming soon. And Trump's critics are on record as having demanded it…

Dogtail,

You are right most of the western countries do have nationalized health care. But the US is 330 million people and we are now close to $40 USD Trillion in debt. I just don't think we have the money to pay for every ones health insurance. If we don't get this debt thing figured out we will, at some point, go bankrupt. That is my biggest problem with Social Democrats. They want free health care, free college and free this and that. We don't have the money to pay for it all!

I don't get free health care. I pay for half the costs, and my boss does pay for the rest of it.

For a society it pays off if people get a good education.

There was a time when it was certain that the USA can't get bankrupt because of the Petrol Dollar. There was a time when the USA basically ruled the world as the only superpower. Nobody was laughing about the USA. Now US bonds are no longer considered the safest bet in the world.
MAGA was and is a reaction to a lot of things going wrong in the USA. And it it lead by a person that bankrupted casinos.

But this is a forum about miniatures.

SB exactly +1

@ Tortarella
"I don't think our friends are fragile either."

Well, you're the one that wrote they were sensitive. I can't always tell (grey boxes).

However, I will take you at your estimation & launch an Iran-Vietnam comparison thread.

This seems a valid topic for this Board but should this potentially upset anyone, I urge you not to read it.

"Grey" due to "stifles"?

I'm sure that falls somewhere under the definition of "fragility". 😏

And it it lead by a person that bankrupted casinos

Don't remember any complaints from you about the meat puppet that was Biden, or about the president who's only qualifications were a talent for getting people angry and using thier emotions to get what he wanted and who once boated that his single most impressive skill was that he was a blank canvas onto which others could project thier hopes and aspirations…

OVI +1

SB +1

As we see many Euros, etc. over here for the Soccer games have openly said how pleasantly surprised they are with what they see, experienced etc. while in the USA. Not at all what they heard about from the media, etc.

Seems they like Waffle House, Walmart and Ranch dressing. FWIW … some making comments about America might be more circumspect. And not ever being here … well everybody is entitled to an opinion. No matter how biased, misinformed, etc. it is.

But continue with those predilections. But the moon is not made of Green Cheese, the Earth is not flat nor only 6000 years old, etc.

As all have to have seen/experienced, etc. … just because you read some books, watched something on TV, etc. Still possibly means you don't know 💩 … About the reality of many things … I'm including me at least on some subjects …

@SBminisguy:
In my opinion the President of the United States of America is only a part of the government. You can put an old highly sympathetic guy in front of the US government, but that does not mean that the politic is beyond criticism. Was Biden much different from Reagan? I still remember jokes from the actor.
I absolutly dislike Trump as a person. Period. I do not understand why the Democrats tried to put Biden in charge again. Do I think that Hillary Clinton is a honourable person with no wrong doing in her life? No.
Trump is a guy making incredible amounts of money since he became president. Do I therefore think that all americans are hostile dislikeable persons and ICE is running around doing the same as the SA in the 1930? No. Most of the stuff written here in this forum about people critical of the US politics or Trump is laughable disinformed.
I have never been in the USA, but here in Berlin you just meet people from there. I played basketball with former GIs, the ACW is highly interesting. That'sit. I am under the impression that the Trump support group here is not really interested in an exchange of opinions, it is rather a hooray for captain spalding group doing similar propaganda as Cuprum2 for Putin. Sometimes you get a nice link, but what I actually admired about US culture of the acceptance of diverse opinions is just lost. I guess that already started with the tea party.

Hezbollah, pot, kettle?

"10:06 AM
Israel says it destroyed "terrorist infrastructure" as Hezbollah decries ceasefire violation

Hezbollah accused Israel of ceasefire violations Monday as Israel said it had destroyed part of the group's "underground terrorist infrastructure" in a village in southern Lebanon.

A statement from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Ketz that was posted on X said Israel's military "just destroyed the underground terrorist infrastructure" of the Iranian-backed group in Majdal Zoun, in southern Lebanon.

"The tunnel, which was over 200 meters long and more than 25 meters deep, contained hundreds of weapons and several launch silos intended to target the territory of the State of Israel and its citizens," the statement said.

"Israel updated the United States and the American representative in Lebanon in advance regarding the destruction of the infrastructure," it continued.

The statement also said Israeli "commanders and fighters will remain in the security zone in southern Lebanon and will continue to destroy terrorist infrastructure, remove threats to northern communities, and safeguard the security of Israel's citizens."

Also on Monday, Hezbollah accused Israel of multiple violations of their fragile ceasefire, citing several strikes on southern Lebanese towns."

"Was Biden much different from Reagan?"

Really?

As to the rest, most people in Europe have no real concept of Americans. They get those wealthy enough to travel over there. When they visit the U.S., it is mostly to the large Blue cities or East/West Coast liberal Meccas. They really don't experience the heartland.

Like judging Germany by Berlin and Hamburg, and the occasional tourist. Do they represent all Germans. I could base my views on all my relatives, friends dads and those I met who fought them. How biased would that be?

I enjoyed the history of the 7 Years War. I don't claim it allowed me to know Germany.

The U.S. is about 28 times bigger than Germany. The small sample you have met, would not allow you to know us. The media we all read, are extremely one sided and biased.

Your EU cousins are finding that out now while visiting. They are even saying the same thing.

One Englishman is having a field day. He came for one game and loved it so much, he has been traveling other areas. People here opened a go fund me for him to continue. (Would Europeans do that for me? 😉). He has met the President and been on TV. Just saw him.

"The person you are thinking of is Oliver Henry, an English soccer fan who came to the United States for the FIFA World Cup and went viral for his change of heart regarding American culture. After watching an England match in Dallas, he met President Donald Trump at the Great American State Fair.You can read more about his journey and unexpected presidential meeting on Yahoo Sports or watch his interview segment with Facebook Watch."

@35thOVI:
it seems to me you think you know the media in Europe. Could you make a list of newspapers you read? It is actually pretty obvious that some if not most of the media in the States is quite bias, here in Germany the journalist standard seems to be different.
Honestly I do not think you are a real American, cause real American are supposed to have a high self esteem and don't give a flying fart what other people think about them.Trust me, I have read that on the internet, so it must be true…
I don't judge people by their nationality, cause you are born without choosing one.You say people from Europe don't experience the heartland (of the USA) cause they only visit large cities. 83% of the people in the US live in urban surroundings. 44% live in metropolian areas, only 16,5 % live in rural areas. So what do you consider the heartland of the USA? Do you even know how the human braines work? You are not able to make an adequate unbias picture of a society of 330 mio people. I don't even try, I judge a person when I see him, in any other situation I am aware that I make assumptions.

First off almost no one reads newspapers. Most informed people use the web and podcasts, with a smattering of cable news (of all sides).

No I will not go through a comprehensive list, but you see the posts of my links (if you read them), they are from a wide range of sources.

Just a tiny portion.

The classics: like Reuters, BBC, Euronews, The Guardian, Al Jazeera as examples.

Some non main line examples: Gript, Rebel News out of Canada

Also web news that access stories from all services.

Good one for Iran: Iran International out of the UK.

If you learn no other lesson, learn this: ALL news services, EVERYWHERE in the world ARE BIASED. Mostly toward the left. They are populated majoritively with people of a liberal bent, who consistently vote for liberals and support liberal causes. But those who lean right are biased as well. Man is biased! It is the nature of the beast.

"Honestly I do not think you are a real American, cause real American are supposed to have a high self esteem and don't give a flying fart what other people think about them.Trust me, I have read that on the internet, so it must be true…"

🤣😂 well thanks for proving my point about not knowing Americans.

I said large Blue cities or East Coast West Cost liberal meccas. There are many urban areas other than NYC, Boston, Chicago, LA, Washington DC and San Francisco. But people visit them and believe they then know Americans. Sorry, You don't.

You could visit all of New England and not know Americans.

The Heartland is the South, The MidWest and larger portions of the West.

But you have never answered my questions:

"Like judging Germany by Berlin and Hamburg, and the occasional tourist. Do they represent all Germans. I could base my views on all my relatives, friends dads and those I met who fought them. How biased would that be?"

Would I be able to judge all Germans and base all my views on that visit?
Should I?
Should I base my view on Germans on what those I know who fought them told me?

Tell me, The four women and two men who were killed in a shooting at a youth welfare facility ⁠in Hamburg today. Did they determine if the Turk who committed it, was a migrant who obtained German citizenship, or was he a first generation child of Turkish immigrants? It only says a 45 year old male citizen of Turkish roots.

See, I do read world news. 😉

I said before, Israel and Hezbollah are the wild cards in the deck of peace.

YNET

"Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said Monday that Israel could find itself at war with Iran "within two days" if Iran fires missiles at Israeli territory, adding that Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei was a target, according to reports.

Speaking to reporters about scenarios in which the war with Iran could resume, Katz said one possibility was that President Donald Trump decides negotiations have "run their course" and wants to resume strikes. The second, he said, is that "Iran attacks us," Ynet reported.

"If Iran attacks, that is the third Iran war. The situation is very clear," Katz said.

"There is no reality in which Israel will allow missile fire at its territory without responding with force. It could happen within two days," he said.

"My directive to the IDF is to prepare for a blue-and-white operation in Iran."

Asked about Iran's Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei and Katz said he was "marked for death," the outlet reported. "

OVI +1

SB +1

That was done in a years long period of negotiations. Trump ripped JCPOA apart.

It was not an effective measure to stop Iran getting deployable nuke WMDs. It was based on the assumption that Iran would follow the agreement. Which as we know and Obama & Biden should have. Iran's islamist can't be trusted … period …

As I posted on FB –

JCPOA … First error was Obama giving Iran 1.7 billion $. USD And foolishly thought he could trust Iran's islamists. The JCPOA had an expiration date. That $ went to Iran's nuke program and fund other moslem terrorists. He basically kicked the can down the road to be some else's problem. His Admin's action really did nothing to stop Iran from getting nukes.

No matter how many times Iran's islamists said they'd follow the JCPOA. They lie and can't be trusted. Then as now … Some of Obama's staff being liberal intellectual academics, etc. with little real-world experience should have stayed in a classroom. Or out of the way …

With the new POTUS … finally 47 years later after Iran's islamists overthrew the more secular gov't, i.e. the Shah. Finally … finally there is real leadership in the WH who is willing to stop Iran from getting deployable nukes. It seems to some this is not happening fast enough.

And as usual some are upset about what Trump did/didn't/was going to do/etc. Well just think how upset everyone would be if Iran had deployable nukes. And hit Israel … or one of the Arab nations in range. Plus, as it is Iran now has missiles that could reach, e.g. the Eastern portion of the UK … Now that is upsetting …

Also, Biden gave a billion or so $ to Iran. He had some of the same 2d and 3d teamers in his admin as Obama did … Both Obama's and Biden's Admins hold some responsibility and have blood on the hands with the very decisions they made.

And the US has Armed Forces in that region to ensure Iran can't ever get nukes … It appears to me … Many comments are more about disliking Trump. And not looking at the hard cold reality. Iran is a threat to that region and many places in the world. And Obama and Biden did little that was effective to stop Iran's nuclear threat … I.e. the JCPOA …

it seems to me you think you know the media in Europe.

Well it appears to me most Euro media is not any better than most of the USA's media …

I absolutly dislike Trump as a person. Period. I do not understand why the Democrats tried to put Biden in charge again. Do I think that Hillary Clinton is a honourable person with no wrong doing in her life? No.

Before the media narrative flipped against him in 2016 after he won the GOP Primary, you probably considered him just a cheeky larger than life celebrity about whom you heard mostly positive things amidst spurts of celebrity gossip news.

There are many reasons you may not like someone -- but I would suggest a constant flood of negative news across the Establishment Media has had an impact… depsite all that he remains a moderate Democrat turned moderate Republican, and whose policies and goals are largely aligned with Truman, Ike, JFK and Reagan. He is not Hitler. He is not a fascist. He is not a racist. He may be a narissicist and has been a womanizer, and brash, he's not a homophobe or a mysogynist.

Now back to our discussion!

Iran international

"15 minutes ago
US has not released $6 USDbn in frozen Iranian funds – New York Post

The US has not released any of the $6 USD billion in frozen Iranian funds for humanitarian goods under the MOU, and will not release them until Tehran "performs," the New York Post reported Tuesday, citing an administration official."

My old USAR Grp Cdr sent me this. Written by Newt Gingrich … Old Newt got it right.

The current negotiations to achieve a long-term truce — if not peace — between America and Iran are amazingly complex and challenging to say the least.

It seems like every other day something goes wrong, either in kinetic action or in words. Then the news media enthusiastically overreacts and frames whatever happened as a potential crisis.

Yet, the larger pattern is understandable.

I don't have any secret knowledge, but I do have an understanding of history. This includes about the Iranian dictatorship and the way these negotiations are handled.

For example, consider the negotiations between Winston Churchill and the Irish Republicans, which ended the war in Ireland. Hundreds were killed in Ireland during the negotiations to reach an agreement which allowed the South to go free while the North remained with Great Britain.

The negotiations between the allies and the Italian government in 1943 is another example of the tension between the search for peace and back sliding into war.

The American-Chinese negotiations to get to the truce in the Korean War took 748 days. During these negotiations in Korea there were two ferocious battles around a site called Pork Chop Hill (which became a very powerful movie after the war). In those two battles the United States saw 347 soldiers killed, more than 1,000 wounded, and nine captured by the Chinese Communists. By contrast the Chinese suffered more than 1,000 killed and maybe as many as 4,000 wounded.

The Paris Peace Accords to get to a truce in the Vietnam War lasted 1,720 days, during which time intense fighting continued.

So, truce talks often involved violence as well as negotiations.

Compare these examples to today's largely bloodless back and forth. With limited air power (including drones) the cost in lives compared to past negotiations is minimal.

Specifically, I have been watching and studying the Iranian religious dictatorship since Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini came back from Paris and founded it in 1979. For 47 years, the dictatorship has been pledged to defeat "the great Satan," which was Khomeini's term for America (Israel has since become the little Satan). During this time, the most dedicated members of the religious dictatorship have chanted "death to America" as a matter of policy.

My guess — and I emphasize that it is a guess with no concrete information to prove the case — is that a lot of the current turbulence can be attributed to a multi-faction split underway in Iran today.

The biggest long-term challenge to the dictatorship is the 80 percent to 90 percent of the Iranian people who are tired of the dictatorship and want to live in a freer safer and more prosperous country. Their challenge is they have no weapons or central organization. When the Iranian people protest, as they did earlier this year, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps simply kills them (more than 42,000 people in the last protest). However, the Iranian people are a permanent threat to the existing regime. If it weakens enough, it will be replaced.

The second bloc is the combination of politicians and business leaders. They know the path of terrorism and nuclear weapons is not working and Iran must find a way to get along with America and its Arab allies. This opposition group is vastly more powerful than the mob in the street, but it may not be able to win a direct confrontation with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which has 160,000 of the most dedicated and fanatic members of Iranian society.

There are two big questions that might change the outcome of the current seemingly shaky balance of power in which no one faction has a decisive ability to decide and act.

First, will the regular army and police get fed up with the current economic and military disaster, reinforce the non-IRGC leadership, and force the IRGC to accept a compromise with America?

Second, will the sheer scale of the devastation from the American-Israeli air campaign, combined with the potential infusion of resources, lead to a "make Iran prosperous" faction which simply forces the IRGC to accept a truce which begins to turn Iran into a more normal state.

Managing the shift back and forth between carrots and sticks — diplomatic talk and kinetic violence — is going to be a complicated process. It will require a lot more patience and tolerance than is normal for the American people, the Congress, or the news media.

Just remember the human cost and length of time some of the earlier negotiations took, and you will realize what an amazing job President Donald J. Trump is doing.

Rather than being drawn into a big fight, he is calmly and steadily working to get a deal that will be better for the United States and our allies — and ultimately better for the Iranian people.

SUPREMACY, SUPERIORITY, DOMINANCE: THE IRAN WAR AND OUR OBSOLETE AIR-CONTROL LEXICON

link

Armand

Have not read it yet … but it sounds like the articles that came out and still do sometimes claiming Tanks are obsolete, etc., etc. …

That was an interesting article, Armand. Thanks.

A votre service mon cher ami…

Armand

Newt! I disagree that the regime will be pressured into actually honoring any deal. They maintain power through brute force. They are on a violent religious crusade. There will be no opposing faction there which will force them into complying with moderate standards which violate their holy mission.

"Calm" and "steady" do not describe Trump's personality. Love him or hate him that is just not how he rolls. "A whole civilization will die tonight" unless they accept peace terms is not calm or steady. He was not drawn into a big fight, he started a war as a way to end the Iranian threat. There is no Congress for now. Trumps acts on his own. If he was calm about it, he might have more support.

@Tortorella, you're not wrong.

But then I'm a cynical American Gen-Xer who should never be given the riegns of power because I care about results and not feelings.

Look, bottom line in my head on this Iran mess: life's too short and the world's too dangerous to keep playing games with a regime that's spent decades proving it only understands one language, force and consequences.

They've chosen the path of nukes, proxies, attacks on us and our allies, shipping disruptions, the whole bit. No more excuses, no more "strategic patience" that just lets them get closer to the bomb while we talk ourselves in circles.

If the current crop of mullahs and IRGC hardliners won't negotiate in good faith—real, verifiable, enforceable stuff like full dismantlement, no enrichment path to weapons, proxies standing down, inspections with teeth – then screw it. We start working our way down the leadership list with precision targeted strikes on leadership, command nodes, enablers, going after the guys actually calling the shots and blocking any off-ramp. Make life uncomfortable for any IRGC and regime members and families abroad -- cut 'em off. Deport them. Sieze their assets. Keep the pressure surgical but relentless until you get to people who are willing to deal like adults who want their country to survive this century.

I don't mean betting on some kind of regime-change fantasy where we occupy the place or some America-loving Iranians pop-up to take over and invite us to build a Disneyland and a coca cola factory, but pruning the obstructionists so someone pragmatic can finally cut a real bargain. That's it. That's the goal. No nukes for them, ever. Attacks don't get a pass anymore. Make defiance hurt worse than compliance,and none of the stupd "proportionate response" stupidity.

Measure everything by results—enrichment gone, incidents stopped, energy lanes open—not press releases or hope. Allies step up or shut up. Yeah, it's ugly work, but unless you deal with it now you end up with bigger problems later. Human nature doesn't reward weakness. Enforce the red lines, impose the costs, and adjust down the food chain until reality bites them hard enough to change the behavior. Simple as that. No theater, just outcomes.

Funny how "The West Wing," a TV show I largely ignored as a Democrat fantasy during the Bush years, got something right:

YouTube link

SB i have said something like this all along. Time to give the regime a dose of its own medicine and fight as they do. I realize the moral issues, but the suffering they have caused must stop. How would they like to be on the wrong end of a hostage situation? Life needs to get tougher for the Guard. Every day. If some of their girlfriends disappear, destabilization begins. Make them wonder who's next. Cyber warfare. Misinformation. International covert efforts inside Iran.

"How would they like to be on the wrong end of a hostage situation?"

Tort,

They wouldn't care. This is a regime that has no problem killing thousands of its own people. Human life is not important to them. Getting tougher is not the answer. They live for an eye for an eye.

Maybe, Grattan, but it would have to bug them that they were getting one upped on this kind of thing. The less time they spend plotting other peoples' misery the better. But I would have tried to bring together agencies from other CIA type services in Europe, Britain, Mossad of course – allies!!! To come up with a campaign to destabilize the regime. Multi-national all out covert disruption. Before going to a conventional war and coming up short with no back-up plan, apparently.

🤔

But no one seemed to like my idea of using their family members over here for the Straits.

"Between 4,000 and 5,000 relatives of prominent Iranian regime leaders, political party members, and high-ranking bureaucrats are estimated to be living in the United States."
….
"A notable portion of these family members are in the U.S. for higher education, while others have successfully transitioned into professional academic careers. Media investigations from the New York Post and The Times of India have identified several high-profile children and nieces/nephews of Iranian officials holding faculty and research posts at elite institutions. Prominent examples include:

Leila Khatami: The daughter of former Iranian President Mohammad Khatami, who serves as a mathematics professor at Union College in New York.

Zahra Mohaghegh Damad: The daughter of a prominent Shia cleric and niece of senior political figure Ali Larijani, working as an assistant professor of nuclear engineering at the University of Illinois.

Zeinab Hajjarian: The daughter of Saeed Hajjarian (a founder of Iran's Ministry of Intelligence), holding a faculty role at the University of Massachusetts Lowell."

…

"assistant professor of nuclear engineering at the University of Illinois." ?!

Holding jobs at prominent universities?!

1) why did we allow them here to begin with? Why still here? Why learning at our universities? Why jobs at our universities!?

So many questions! 😡

Sorry.. ranting. 😉 But not sorry for those questions!🤬

Anyway.. my past idea on TMP.

We grab these thousands (just like they did ours in 79).

We place them aboard ships transporting the Strait.

Nothing mean to them. Same room and board as the crew get.

We let Iran know they are on board some ships.. just not which ones.

The ships get through safely, they get a nice strait's site seeing cruise. 🚢

Also No Tolls!

Things go fine, even after a treaty is signed. We return some each year. (Sans US jobs and anymore U.S. education!)

You know I bet there are some in Europe too! The more the merrier! 😉

I know, not kosher right? We can't be like them, right?

Why?

I have to admit, it was not an original idea of mine. I got it from our ally the British.

"Yes, the British did force Boer civilian prisoners onto trains, but it was not to keep the prisoners safe—it was to use them as human shields to protect British supply lines.

During the guerrilla phase of the Second Boer War (1899–1902), highly mobile Boer commandosconsistently sabotaged, derailed, and ambushed British armored supply trains. To stop this, British commanders began forcing prominent Boer non-combatants onto the trains, assuming the commandos would not attack or derail a locomotive if they knew their own people were on board. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]

Details of the Policy
* The "Human Shield" Tactic: In late 1901, the UK Parliament formally questioned the Secretary of State for War about reports that non-combatant Boers were being forced onto trains traveling between Pretoria and Pietersburg. [1, 2]
* Official Stance: British high command left this tactic to the discretion of field generals, defending it by pointing to precedents like the Franco-Prussian War. [1, 2]
* Broader Counter-Insurgency: This was part of a larger, brutal "scorched earth" strategy implemented by Lord Kitchener. The British also burned Boer farms, built thousands of fortified blockhouses along the tracks, and forced over 100,000 Boer women and children into concentration camps to cut off the commandos' logistical support."

Good enough for them, good enough for us too, right?

SB and Tort o obviously don't disagree with policies similar to yours.

I've said until I am blue in the face, we must watch them continuously and reward aggression with worse suppression!

Carrot and stick.

I like you believe they may sign a treaty and promise to be good. Might even do so for as long as Trump and someone as hard line or worse is in office. But they will bide for time. It is written in the version of their religion they follow. I have printed it on TMP so many times, hoping people would read it and go find out more.. alas, I don't think many do.

Know your adversary! I know most of our presidents have not and even Trump seems too trusting.

I did send my hostage idea to the White House when Iran started this Straits stuff. But we've seen no hostages.

Just too soft hearted I guess.

I keep reading here that Iran cannot be trusted to honor any agreement.
However, Iran fully complied with the JCPOA for at least a year after the US withdrew from the agreement and sanctions were reintroduced.. Almost every signatory to the agreement agrees that they were in full compliance.
If your position is that the agreement was not comprehensive enough, I can get behind that argument. But to state that they cannot be trusted to comply with an agreement is disingenuous.
If someone does not trust them to honor an agreement, that is different than an evidence based assessment that they do not honor agreements.

Martyn go back and read through the threads in this and the other main Iran post. The reasons that agreement was flawed have been covered, here and elsewhere.

Actual reasons.

This is what Sharia law brings?

"A woman has become the first person to be publicly caned in Indonesia's Aceh province for 'committing obscenity live with a man on social media' under its strict Sharia law."

The crime you ask? Porn? Debauchery?

No

"The punishment was handed down after she and her partner were accused of kissing during a TikTok livestream. "

😱

Did onlookers demand it stop? Was there mass indignation?

No

"Dozens of onlookers watched the caning, with some calling for the officials who carried out the punishment to 'whip stronger'."

📣

Subject: Woman passes out as she becomes the first ever to be caned for 'committing obscenity live with a man on social media' under Indonesian province's Sharia law | Daily Mail Online


link

One might ask: why would Indonesia allow Sharia law to be practiced in a supposed democracy?

Good question!

Well these things happen when those who practice Islam become the dominant members of a countries population.

We have cities here already asking for versions of it.

"Indonesia allows the practice of Sharia (frequently phonetically misspelled or misheard as "Sherril") because of its unique constitutional framework, historical regional autonomy agreements, and its majority-Muslim demographic.

While Indonesia is a democratic state and not an Islamic theocracy, it formally integrates religious elements into its governance."