"Iran - What Worked, and What Didn't Work?" Topic

Good blunt assessment here by a military intel analyst on what worked in the War against Iran vs what didn't work.

YouTube link

The video is an "After Action Review" (AAR) by Ryan McBeth on the recent U.S.-led Operation Epic Fury against Iran (circa early 2026), framed as a warning to adversaries like China and Russia while highlighting lessons for the U.S.

What Went Right (U.S. Strengths Demonstrated)Political Will and Strategic Impact: After decades of inaction across multiple administrations, the U.S. (under Trump 47) acted decisively. This set back Iran's nuclear/ballistic missile programs significantly (potentially 10–20+ years or permanently, depending on the agreement), making the world safer and deterring apocalyptic ambitions tied to regime ideology.

Low Losses and High Effectiveness: Thousands of air missions with minimal aircraft losses (far better than Desert Storm). Clear objectives were met: destruction/degradation of Iran's air force, navy, missile/drone capabilities, and infrastructure.

Missile Defense Success: Patriot and THAAD systems performed well in intercepting ballistic missiles.

Targeting and ISR Dominance: Over 13,000 targets struck in 38 days with exceptional precision (only one known major error), enabled by AI, superior intelligence/surveillance/reconnaissance, and "any sensor, any decider, any shooter" doctrine. This bodes well for future conflicts like a potential Pacific fight.

Leadership Targeting: Highly effective "find, fix, finish" against regime leaders, sending a strong deterrent message to adversaries (e.g., individual leaders in China would personally pay a price).

Cost-Effective Weapons and Innovations: Advanced Precision Kill Weapon System (APKWS) successfully countered cheap drones like Shaheds at low cost (~$25k per shot). Effective cyber operations, combat search and rescue, and other systems (e.g., LUCAS drones) also shone.

Iran's Information Warfare Failure: Iran's efforts (e.g., propaganda videos) largely flopped due to limited global sympathy for the regime.

What Went Wrong / Challenges ExposedVulnerable Bases and Drone Threats: Bases were exposed; persistent drone attacks highlighted ongoing vulnerabilities (lessons from Ukraine emphasized).

Limited Allied Support: Not enough international backing.

Logistics and Endgame Issues: Disruption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz; unclear or poorly managed end states/political outcomes.

Information Warfare and Narrative: Weak U.S. efforts at home and abroad; difficulty "winning the narrative" even after battlefield success. Need for better embedded creators and strategic communications.

Other Gaps: Potential needs like an E-7 Wedgetail/AWACS replacement.

Broader Lessons and Warnings
The conflict serves as a demonstration of U.S. power and resolve to China, Russia, and others.

Emphasis on fixing issues (e.g., base hardening, alliances, info ops) before the "next major conflict."

Overall balanced tone: Not pure cheerleading or doomposting—acknowledges successes while calling for improvements.

The video draws on military analysis style, references specific systems/operations, and encourages viewer comments on the biggest lessons. It ends around a memorandum of understanding (not full peace treaty) between the U.S. and Iran.

Agree with the military ops assessments, as far as we know.

Iran fights its war with the west via terrorism and proxies, not as a conventional military power. It is not comparable to fighting China. China watched and learned. It did not see clear and decisive leadership at the top. It knows POTUS did not have a great PR performance and has been weakened politically.

Leadership targeting against China might not get the same results. As a major nuclear power with the world's largest military, it has a lot of options in responding to a similar attack. Xi believes the US has begun to decline, may sense weakness and lack of resolve in reaching meaningful strategic objectives. I am sure he respects the US military performance. But I would not call it a deterrent. More like an incentive to enhance the arms race. IMO.

Not going to touch this. Why?
Because nobody is allowed to criticize the current administration. That's "POLITICS!" Thats a DH offense, and I'm not finished with redecorating my cell.

Am I allowed to say that from Day One, the …..
naaaaah. Too chancy. I'm not permitted to have negatives, while positive vibes are 👍
Have a nice day.

Nope. Not even a "Yeah, but what about…..? out of me.
Enjoy your circular MAGA firing squad and blame game.

It appears nothing worked. Iran has announced the Straits are closed again….

There are 60 days to negotiate something permanent.
Given that Obama's workable Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) took two, full years to negotiate, I'm not sanguine anything much of advantage will be decided in 60 days.

Sadly, +1 PzGeneral.

No regime change. Apparently killing the top layers of mullahs didn't go far enough. Those who survived are still as fanatic.
They still have all the enriched uranium, deeply buried, but that's what tunnel making gear is for.
Missiles? Factories are back up.
And, yes. The Straits are now closed again.
We have severely depleted precision munitions and million dollar interceptors. Which were almost overwhelmed by thousand dollar drones. China has noticed and is smiling in its inscrutable Oriental way. 🙄

Does it really matter what "worked"? Because what did work, we have almost used up.

Ochoin. The JCPOA was a POS. The West needs to deal with Iran or we'll be living with it's terrorist proxies for another 47 years.

The Iran Deal Doesn't Stop At Iran: Russia, China, And North Korea Are Watching

"The US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding is being judged on whether it cools tensions in the Persian Gulf. Strategic-studies scholar Andrew Michta argues that's the wrong test. Iran is now part of a coordinated "Axis of Dictatorships" alongside Russia, China, and North Korea — and any deal that eases pressure on Tehran, including a proposed $300 USD billion in reconstruction, strengthens the entire coalition and weakens the long-term Western position.

The recently finalized Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the United States and Iran to negotiate a permanent end to hostilities is based on a strategic misunderstanding. It assumes Iran can be seen as a standalone regional issue, but in reality, Iran is a key member of an increasingly coordinated "Axis of Dictatorships," a de facto alliance of Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea. As a result, any concessions to Iran made by the Trump administration are unlikely to remain limited to the Middle East; they will influence Ukraine, the US rivalry with China, U.S. relations with its European allies, Israel, and the Gulf Arab states, as well as the broader emerging global order.

The main flaw in the Trump administration's approach is that it views Iran as an isolated issue rather than part of a larger geopolitical system. After the Cold War, American policymakers grew accustomed to addressing challenges primarily from a regional perspective. Russia was increasingly regarded as a European problem, China as an Asian concern, and Iran as a Middle Eastern issue…"

link

Armand