"When NATO leaders gather in Ankara in July, they will be meeting in the capital of one of the alliance's most strategically important and politically contested members. The 2026 NATO summit will take place in Turkey at a moment when the United States is sending increasingly uncertain signals about its long-term role in European security, including a planned drawdown of US forces from Germany that has intensified European debates about burden sharing. At the same time, Turkey brings capabilities that few allies can dismiss. It fields the alliance's second-largest army, and its geography places it at the intersection of the Black Sea, the eastern Mediterranean, the Middle East, and the Caucasus.
This setting captures NATO's enduring Turkey paradox. Turkey is militarily valuable, geographically essential, and regionally influential, especially when the alliance faces crises along its southern and eastern flanks. At the same time, its domestic politics, independent foreign policy, disputes with Greece and Cyprus, strong disagreement with US support for the Syrian Democratic Forces in Syria, purchase of the Russian S-400 air defense system, and frequent clashes with European governments have made it one of NATO's most difficult allies to manage.
This paradox has existed since Turkey entered the alliance in 1952, but it is becoming more relevant as NATO faces a more uncertain strategic environment. If Washington becomes less predictable and Europe is forced to carry more of its own defense burden, Turkey's role inside NATO will become more visible. Greater visibility, however, will not automatically produce greater trust. Turkey's future role in NATO will likely follow a pattern that has shaped the alliance for decades: When threat perceptions rise, allies rediscover Turkey's strategic value; when threat perceptions decline, concerns about Turkey's identity, reliability, and political direction regain force…"
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finally begins Vietnam.
