"Is War with China Inevitable?" Topic

"James Holmes, a Naval War College strategy professor writing in The National Interest, throws some needed cold water on the idea that the United States and China are destined for war because of the Thucydides Trap—the supposedly inevitable clash between predominant powers and rising powers epitomized by the Peloponnesian War between Athens and Sparta, which was made newly popular by Harvard's Graham Allison in his 2017 book Destined for War. Holmes cautions against claims that certain events or outcomes are "destined" in global affairs. There are no inevitabilities in history or international relations. Leaders make decisions that determine peace or war.

Allison is not the first observer to misapply valuable lessons of history to current global politics. Other examples abound. Barbara Tuchman's Pulitzer Prize–winning book about the origins of the First World War The Guns of August has been misapplied countless times as an example of events and historical-social forces outside of political leaders' control resulting in war, when, in fact, it was decisions made by political leaders in Austria-Hungary, Germany, Russia, Great Britain, and France that determined war or peace, as well as the intensity and length of the conflict. One only has to read George F. Kennan's Decline of Bismarck's European Order and The Fateful Alliance to understand that human agency, not historical inevitability, caused World War I.

Austria-Hungary did not have to issue an ultimatum to Serbia following the terrorist murder of Franz Ferdinand and his wife. Germany did not have to give Austria-Hungary's leaders a "blank check" to wage war against Serbia. Russia did not have to mobilize its army against Germany in the days leading up to August 1914. Great Britain, as Niall Ferguson brilliantly pointed out in The Pity of War, did not have to go to war at all. Germany did not have to renew unrestricted warfare at sea and send the Zimmerman Telegram to Mexico, which led U.S. President Woodrow Wilson to ask Congress for a declaration of war. There was nothing inevitable about any of those political decisions…"

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Armand

It all depends on how much China wants to take Taiwan, and how much whatever administration in charge in Washington wants to defend it.

With many people on both sides of aisle have interests in the chip makers in Taiwan, they will do whatever it takes to make sure China doesn't take over.

Both sides have much too lose regardless of outcome. Better off being "jaw to jaw" with China. The fear of fighting the United States is critical. Once a nation commits to open warfare, the mythic qualities of a great power can disappear. As in Ukraine.

We have laid some cards on the table in Iran. China and Russian send Iran help via the Caspian Sea to keep it going…and they get to observe how we roll in terms of air and naval ops, tech, etc. But we get experience.

China doesn't have access to the Caspian Sea))) It sends aid to Iran via Pakistan…

War between the US and China is already underway. It's just a Cold War. The only question now is whether this confrontation will escalate into a direct, heated conflict. The seizure of Venezuela and the attempt to dislodge Russia and Iran from China's ranks of current or potential allies are all integral parts of the ongoing Cold War between the US and China.
In my opinion, a multipolar world is not taking shape… It's once again boiling down to a confrontation between two superpowers. The United States managed to knock Russia and Europe off the playing board. For now, at least.