"Is it over?" Topic

The Ground Truth America Won't Admit

"On August 31, 2021, adversary intelligence directorates in Moscow, Beijing, and Tehran didn't just watch the chaotic American withdrawal from Afghanistan; they updated their threat models. The enduring legacy of those final days was not simply the loss of Bagram or the collapse of the Afghan army, but the broadcasting of a bright, unmistakable boundary around American political will. That perception contributed to a broader sense that U.S. resolve had observable limits—a perception adversaries tested in the years that followed, including Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, heightened Iranian regional aggression through proxies, the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel, and a wider pattern of global destabilization.

The same signal of limited resolve is now visible in the current administration's approach to the conflict with Iran. Senior civilian leadership—Commander-in-Chief, Vice President, and Secretary of War—appears to have imposed constraints on CENTCOM that sharply limit the consideration of large-scale ground force options. The limited mobilization of American infantry within the Iran theater for any sustained role beyond special operations raids or short-duration security missions makes the boundary unmistakable. The United States has instead heavily emphasized a doctrine of Integrated All-Domain Naval Power, first formally articulated in the 2020 tri-service strategy Advantage at Sea, alongside air superiority and precision standoff weapons.

The prevailing operational concept rests on the belief that stealth aircraft, long-range missiles, naval power, and partner or proxy forces can degrade an adversary's military capacity and economic base without the political costs, casualties, and open-ended commitments of protracted ground occupation. American leaders of both recent administrations have, through words and resource decisions, signaled a clear preference for fighting from the sky, from the sea, and through regional partners rather than committing large formations of American infantry to seize and hold contested terrain. From a domestic political standpoint, the logic is unassailable: protracted ground occupations are financially ruinous and politically lethal. Yet what makes perfect sense in Washington creates acute vulnerability abroad. This is not primarily a doctrinal debate about the relative merits of airpower versus land-power. It is a political choice about how much risk and cost the United States is prepared to accept. That choice is what adversaries read as limited resolve.

No serious adversary welcomes the full weight of American air and naval firepower. Yet sophisticated opponents understand a fundamental limitation: air power and sea power alone cannot achieve definitive political outcomes that require physical control of territory or the decisive dismantling of a determined regime. This is not a shortcoming of American military capability. It is a revealed boundary on American political will. Adversaries have adapted accordingly…"

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Armand

Written by:Stephen D. Cook is a retired U.S. Army Special Forces Lieutenant Colonel with 25 years of service. A combat veteran decorated for both heroism and valor, he is the author of the field manuals When We're Finished and Choose the Heavier Ruck.

Obviously not worth considering as he was only an American Lt-Col.(that was sarcastic BTW – the good Colonel seems quite a chap).

This article applies very well to the US' current disastrous Iran War. Thanks, Armand.

Tango +1

And I tend to agree with much the LTC has said. Using words and terms, etc. I'm very familiar with …

This is not a shortcoming of American military capability. It is a revealed boundary on American political will. Adversaries have adapted accordingly…"

We saw this with last POTUS and Admin. Neither should any of them have been anywhere near WH or even DC for that matter. As well their supporters in Congress and the media.

"A'stan was lost by suits … not boots." … I will never forgive or forget those incompetent ideologs political hacks etc. Neither will many others …

Stephen D. Cook is a retired U.S. Army Special Forces Lieutenant Colonel with 25 years of service. A combat veteran decorated for both heroism and valor, he is the author of the field manuals When We're Finished and Choose the Heavier Ruck.

Yes few could polish is boots …

This article applies very well to the US' current disastrous Iran War.

A'stan's withdrawal was a disaster. Iran is not over yet …

But I realize some can't see that, and never will … However, the ball is still very much in play.

I'll hold my conclusions until it is over. If it is a disaster or victory.

Glad you like it boys…

Armand

The signing of the agreement to withdraw from Afghanistan and it's subsequent implementation was a disaster for US foreign policy.

A'stan's withdrawal was a disaster. Iran is not over yet …

Legion!! 😱

You and I know that according to all the "experts" on TMP, the MSM, Democrats and RHINOS, this war was over on day 2. 😏😉

Same ones who told us Anthony Fauci was a genius and the former President did not have dementia before the 2020 election. The Fauci dairy entries and the Biden tapes, released in the last two days, but not covered by most, have sure put an end to that.

Yes: Covid came from a wet market, masks worked, the jab prevented you from catching covid, it stopped you from spreading it, schools needed to be closed, young children must get jabbed and President was never mentally impaired the whole presidency. He was dancing circles around younger people.

All things TMP'ers said, as well as the others I mentioned above said.

So now they say the war is over and it was a disaster! Worse than Afghanistan! Worse than Vietnam! 😱 We must believe Legion. The US is overrun. Our Air Force and Navy destroyed. Army is in shambles. Dogs are sleeping with cats. Bears 💩 ing in the cities. Things have never been worse. 😂

The signing of the agreement to withdraw from Afghanistan and it's subsequent implementation was a disaster for US foreign policy.

Bingo !!!! And it didn't have to end that way. That disaster only emboldened our enemies to continue or execute their plans. With that complete display of US political incompetence, etc.:

Putin invaded Ukraine …

Iran continued with its terrorist plans and campaign …

To start with …

OVI +1

So now they say the war is over and it was a disaster! Worse than Afghanistan! Worse than Vietnam! 😱 We must believe Legion. The US is overrun. Our Air Force and Navy destroyed. Army is in shambles. Dogs are sleeping with cats. Bears 💩 ing in the cities. Things have never been worse. 😂

Yep just ask some in Congress, the media, etc.

We're Doomed I tell ya !!! 😨 DOOMED !!!! 😱

Hell's com'n to breakfast and we're on the menu !!! 😨😰

Ha! That's a good expression! Had not heard it before.

I don't really hear that level of exaggeration. The WH spends too much time on this kind of pushback. Its not how the middle feels at all, IMO. The whole "Communists are back" thing sounds the same..I think the middle sees that for what it is also. This country allows freedom of speech, dissent, protest. And most people here don't buy the extremist views on either side.

The Afghanistan debacle is over. Both the presidents involved were at best incompetent. We saw how the deal with the Taliban worked out. And Biden made a huge mess in dealing with the consequences, incomprehensible decisions.

But now is now. The US military has done what was asked of it. But the terrorists and their henchmen still rule Iran. Destroying the infrastructure does not have much leverage with these guys, it appears. The real wars they fight don't employ large armies or navies. They have to be outsmarted and dealt with from within as well, my totally amateur opinion.. The military strikes are one part of a more effective comprehensive plan, which I have no expert knowledge about but firmly believe.

We cannot know all that is happening but its hard to argue that this has gone well right now. This does not make me unpatriotic or even right. But is is a valid observation based on the results we can see, IMO.

The Afghanistan debacle is over. Both the presidents involved were at best incompetent. We saw how the deal with the Taliban worked out. And Biden made a huge mess in dealing with the consequences, incomprehensible decisions.

But now is now.

Problem is, others keep using it, Iraq and even Vietnam in their comparisons. We even have a post: Iran and Vietnam as its topic.

So fair to bring it up for those of us from the other side. 😉

But Afghanistan did have some successes. Problem: we stayed and tried to build a democracy. Something that was not and never will be possible there.

Houthis pushing to model Iran's Hormuz control in Red Sea, Yemeni FM says

"Yemen's Houthi Movement aims to replicate Iran's Hormuz Strait strategy in the Red Sea by disrupting shipping in ​the Bab el-Mandeb and has been emboldened by an insufficient international ‌response, Yemen's top diplomat said on Monday.
"The Houthis want to copy the Iranian model and this will shut down two main straits, the gateways into the Gulf and Red Sea," ​Yemeni Foreign Minister-designate Afrah Al-Zouba said, speaking to a small group ​of journalists at the Yemeni embassy in the Saudi capital, Riyadh.

⁠The Red Sea has become a new front in the Iran war, with ​the Houthis taking an escalatory approach against Saudi Arabia by firing missiles and ​drones at the kingdom and declaring a blockade on Saudi shipping.
Saudi Arabia has responded with airstrikes on what it said were Houthi military facilities and said it would protect commercial ​shipping, accusing the Houthis of serving foreign agendas…"

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Armand

I agree Tort. I am not sure the strategy of pushing the claim of Communism everywhere in America is going to work for conservatives. Communism in Russia fell some 35 yrs ago. No one under 50 even remembers what the Cold War was like and what the Soviet Union was like. Yes, there is still China, but they have blended in capitalism into the mix. Most Americans really don't know what communism is and they seem very interested right now in socialism. So, maybe not the winning strategy they are hoping for.

3 hours ago
Iran launched ballistic missiles at US forces in Middle East – CENTCOM

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) launched multiple ballistic missiles toward US forces in the Middle East on Tuesday in what US Central Command described as an attempted surprise attack, adding that all missiles were intercepted.

"At 5:45 p.m. ET today, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps forces launched multiple ballistic missiles from Iran in an attempted surprise attack on U.S. forces based in the Middle East. All Iranian missiles were successfully intercepted. U.S. forces remain vigilant and at a high state of readiness," CENTCOM posted on X.

1 hour ago

US, Saudi forces strike Iran-aligned sites in Iraq – CENTCOM

US Central Command said US and Saudi forces conducted precision strikes in Iraq on Tuesday against sites used by Iran-aligned groups that it accused of carrying out drone attacks targeting US forces and Saudi energy infrastructure.

"US and Saudi fighter aircraft struck multiple terrorist logistics and weapons sites across eastern Iraq in a strong response to over 30 IRGC-directed aerial drone attacks in the last 72 hours. The unwarranted attacks against US forces were not successful," CENTCOM posted on X.

"From February through April 2026, there were more than 600 attempted attacks on US citizens and facilities by Iran-aligned terrorist militias in Iraq. The IRGC and its terrorist proxies must cease these attacks to avoid further US military response," the statement added.

No… it's not over.

OVI +1 …

And yes … it seems the IRGC wants to die. Works for me …

One thing has to be clear – based on the Gulf Wars and A'stan … To get massive amounts of troops on the ground to fight islamists won't work. We saw this too often.

The US defeated ISIS by Spec Ops working on the ground with locals. Who wanted to get rid of ISIS … Plus the US could call in air support to prep or finish the battle.

It seems we don't have that type of dynamic going on in Iran.

I'm glad to hear the US and KSA took out some of the Shia militias in Iraq. They are supported by Iran, or were.

Yes Legion +1…we have great special forces, use them.

Yes, and we do use them … and in many cases no one knows … or should.

FWIW there is some pretty graphic footage of the casualties that was shown in the WWII Tom Hanks series. On the Histroy Channel. About dropping the A-bombs on Japan.

Those at/near Ground 0 who were vaporized. Nothing but a shadow, a silhouette on the ground … on a wall. Gone … just atomized … So just imagine how much more deadly employing today's nuclear devices are … Add fall-out then radiation sickness. It is a real horrific weapon.

One of my e-pal from Oz posted this on FB. Talking about the A-Bombs dropped on Japan –

I don't think people realize soldiers Kms away from the blast centre turned to look at the bomb and their eyeballs run like melted wax

Gritty enough …

Religious fanatics like there are in Iran. Should never, ever, get nuclear WMDs. Do those in Congress who are fighting/arguing with the POTUS, Admin, etc. really know what they are saying/doing, etc. ? Putting polarized politics, woke progressivism, hatred for the POTUS, etc. Over reality …

If we are already in Iran in some capacity, I hope we see some results. Almost nobody in America actually wants Iran to have nuclear weapons. How to get results is what we differ on.

Just as we don't know everything about military operations, we don't know for certain how/why Trump decided on his own to go to war, regardless of the public statements he has made, and what he will do now. The goal posts have sometimes moved back and forth on the outcomes Trump will accept: some nuke capacity, no nukes: no cash for Iran, boat loads of cash for Iran: we destroyed their military, they need a few missiles: talks are going very well with the new leaders, I will destroy their civilization.

Only one outcome will do here – getting rid of the current regime/Guard, IMO. Hesgeth wants the media and the public to support a war in which they had no say, not even via elected representatives. Nobody wants Iran to have nukes. Now that we have gone to war, go ahead, make our day, find a way to end the terrorist leadership curse.

1 hour ago
Israel may join war against Iran, senior lawmaker says

A senior Iranian lawmaker said on Thursday that Israel may join the war against Iran, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's meeting with US President Donald Trump is aimed at reaching a decision on the matter.

"The enemy has resumed its psychological warfare, and Israel may enter the war against Iran. The Israeli prime minister's visit to the United States and meeting with Trump are also aimed at making a decision on this matter," Alaeddin Boroujerdi said.

The member of parliament's national security and foreign policy committee added that Iran has never accepted a US-style ceasefire because Washington resumes fighting whenever it chooses.

"This is unacceptable to the Islamic Republic," he said.

👍

Subject: Army tests 'Hammer of the Gods' system overseas for first time | Fox News


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Just like China does, I think we tell the world way too much about these new systems. Just knowing this exists allows our enemies to seek counter measures.

The tech is not really that new. Russia is using GPS jammers to reduce the accuracy of 155m shells. You only need to move the target point by tens of meters to significantly reduce the lethality.

No not new.

But is it wider and better? Compared to Russia and the Ukraine so far, have to believe ours would be better.

China?

If someone else does not invent it so they can steal it.
If Rich governments didn't build the factories in their country in exchange for slave labor.
If they couldn't use all the money saved by not having to employ their own people and build those new factories, and put it all into their military.

China would still be 20 years behind the West. No one to blame but our governments and business people.

42 minutes ago
Trump says deal reached for complete disarmament of Hamas

US President Donald Trump said in a post on Truth Social Thursday that the Board of Peace had reached an agreement for the complete disarmament of Hamas and other armed groups in Gaza, with Israeli forces to withdraw as disarmament progresses.

Hopefully true. Would be a huge victory for the U.S. and Israel.

Unless someone else confirms….i am not so sure. And Iran runs the proxies. No deal is safe with them. This could also be away to distract the public from his Iran war. But let's see how this plays out.

Multiple sources. Just search the web.

There are contingencies on Isreali withdrawal. Probably more.

But how about some credit Tort.

The cease-fire he engineered has lasted even though many on TMP said it wouldn't.

Hamas has not been involved so far in the Iranian conflict, which I pointed out on multiple occasions.

Both of those are worthy of praise. Although of course there will be none.

Why you ask? 😏

This may well be the largest Muslim invasion of Spain since 711.

The Reconquista 2?

Tens of thousands of illegals have landed on Spanish soil this week, with a record-breaking 49,000 arriving in the city of Ceuta just one day on Thursday, but locals have clashed with the new arrivals as the authorities focus on facilitating, not preventing, the crisis.

While estimates remain uncertain as border control totally collapsed, the number of migrants thought to have taken advantage of a Spanish Supreme Court ruling that prevents police from opposing anyone entering Spain by sea soared over the course of Thursday from a couple of thousand, to 20,000 by evening, and then on to 50,000. The city government went further to estimate 60,000, but this was challenged by the Ministry of the Interior.
….

Regardless, 49,000 in 24 hours sets the record for most migrants in a single day having broken into Ceuta, the Spanish territorial exclave in North Africa which is surrounded by Morocco on one side and the Mediterranean on the other, since the migrant icrisis began over a decade ago.
…

The local Ceuta administration demanded Madrid act, declare a state of emergency, and deploy the army but it took until Thursday afternoon for any action. Even when the army was turned out of its barracks and a column of armoured vehicles rushed to the porous border, the troops were not there to enforce border controls — which remains illegal after the Supreme Court ruling — and merely attempted to bolster the civil forces there to welcome and manage the arriving flow.

Indeed, even after the army arrived, the migrant flow continued and Spanish media reports the border remains porous this morning.

Given the normal population of the Spanish city of Ceuta is just 80,000, the scale of arrivals is considerable, and the 500-man migrant arrival processing centre was already totally overwhelmed by the drumbeat of illegal border crossings in the earlier part of the week, long before the surge. Consequently the city has been plunged into a state of disorder, with tens of thousands sleeping in the open air and unable to access drinking water, food, and toilet facilities, and there were chaotic scenes as state control failed.

Subject: Ceuta 'Invasion': 49,000+ Illegals Swim to Spanish Territory in 24 Hours


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Sure, yes 35th. He played a role, and it has held.

OVI +1

Initiatives, OPLANS, etc. are ongoing in the WH, DoW, etc. right now.

CENTCOM has said again, the Strait is open. Lanes have been cleared. Traffic thru there is still less than it was. As the IRGC still makes attacks on ships but few. Some ships are hit … but again few. Ships owners, etc. are still reluctant. As the IRGC is still making threats and at time firing a few missiles and drones.

There is a 10-14 Day Air offensive OPLAN. The US is prepped to execute when ordered by the CinC. The plan is based on evolving gathered intel, evolving situation, etc. And will go after new targets including any of Iran's remaining ADA, missile and drone launching capabilities. Supply points, IRGC C3I and troop locations.

As well as the IDF is prepped to go into support the US strikes. Plus on their target list is as always Iran's remaining theocratic islamist fanatic gov't, etc. I'm sure they have the new Ayatollah if he is still alive as a priority target …

GENs Ret. Kean, Kellog, ADM Harwood, etc. have said basically once Iran's IRGC, theocratic leaders, etc. is significantly attrited. Anti-Gov't forces trained, armed, etc. by the IDF, CIA, Spec Ops, etc. will go in and clean up the remnants of Iran islamists.

I believe that is what is going based on all that I see and hear, etc. online, certain media resources, etc.

Some in Congress, the media, the left, etc. continue to act as a 5th Column. Interfering, sabotaging, etc. the CinC's, SoW's, etc. plan to end Iran's islamists. Which would help with ending Iran's support of Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, etc.

There is talks in Gaza about that situation. However, it seems both sides still have a lot of distrust, skepticism, etc. among each other …

The big picture is once Iran is no longer a threat. The islamists gone, etc. Then these islamic terrorists in that region can no longer get the outside support.

The new OPLAN considers a land blockade of Iran as well. As a number of resupply routes, etc. by used by China, etc. has to be shutdown …

As well as the fact that US ADA missile inventories may be running short. So to hit those vital assets will limit those capabilities.

We will just have to disagree on the Democratic Socialist vs ….socialism as a way to improve living standards, 35th. Many cheat the system, but at the top as well as the bottom. The only thing certain is that regular working Americans can't always keep up.

Trump is the most directly socialist president since FDR, IMO. He has caused the government to acquire equity in a large number of private companies and industries. You can look that up..it is unprecedented in modern times. More like communism 101 re the state owning the means of production.

Then there is the massive increase in personal wealth, billions, he and his family have enjoyed in the last year or so. His sons are invested in the several major defense firms now drawing down billions of tax dollars for military spending. And as we know, he is not big in paying taxes himself. He has promoted at least a dozen companies on his social media just days after buying stock in them.
And he and the family have a special business immunity deal with the IRS. All easily confirmed online.

I have been glad to see Trump secure the border and get serious with the crazies running Iran. But the balance sheet for me is not balancing. I could be DH'd for all of this and I have no problem with that if deemed necessary.

Regular working Americans have always had troubles keeping up. As have they in every country of the world.

It's not new. It is just that a few generations believe they are somehow unique. They are not.

I had difficulties keeping up in the late 70's and early 80's coming out of college, (I was at least smart enough to have NOT gotten myself into financial debt paying for college). Laid off, working any jobs I could get to pay bills. Even mowing lawns on the side as well.

My father had issues at times.

His father coal miner/farmer had issues.

His father had issues. He farmed and he and his brother freighted for the army. He caught pneumonia trying to get his crop in during a freak hail storm in Kansas. Oh! And died of it.

My great grandmother had to come back home to Indiana in a wagon as far as Illinois, pregnant and with a 5 and 9 year old boy.

I can go on. My great great was orphaned when my great great great was wounded by Indians and died 3 days later, during Harrison's expedition at Fort Harrison.

My point? There have always been problems. You do your best and find a way through them…… or you don't. You don't attempt to change the government and financial system of your country! You don't try and take the money of others. Money you have no right to.

OVI +1

I have been glad to see Trump secure the border and get serious with the crazies running Iran.

Both of those are major … And no one else had the brass to do such things. He pretty much is helping to save the USA. From the communists and islamists. I am not the only one to see those revelations …

I don't want to change the system with socialism. Trump is already doing that in some ways. You know as well as I do what's going on. Many sources.

I want the system to get back to some semblance of balance. I don't want the country supporting a lot of slackers but we are crazy if we let it turn its back on the greater good. I want profiteering and corruption at the top to be at least minimized. And in Congress and the Supreme Court. No more crooks is not possible. But laws, consequences, guardrails are being removed. Too many tax loopholes.

In Ohio, toxic fracking waste water is being pumped into the ground all over the place and seeping out. In September, Ohio's only National Forest will be put out to bid for fracking. Those profits are not going to you or helping anyone but the wealthy. More oil to be sold overseas. An example of the disconnect between the social contract to protect everyday Americans and more wealth for the wealthy. And I don't want the Executive branch engaging in corporate takeovers. We are a capitalist free enterprise society running on tax dollars. The government can regulate, but never own the means of production. We know what that is called.

I don't want to change the system with socialism. Trump is already doing that in some ways. You know as well as I do what's going on. Many sources.

I want the system to get back to some semblance of balance. I don't want the country supporting a lot of slackers but we are crazy if we let it turn its back on the greater good. I want profiteering and corruption at the top to be at least minimized. And in Congress and the Supreme Court. No more crooks is not possible. But laws, consequences, guardrails are being removed. In Ohio, toxic fracking waste water is being pumped into the ground all over the place and seeping out. In September, Ohio's only National Forest will be put out to bid for fracking. Those profits are not going to you or helping anyone but the wealthy. An example of the disconnect between the social contract to protect everyday Americans and more wealth for the wealthy. And I don't want the Executive branch engaging in corporate takeovers. We are a capitalist free enterprise society running on tax dollars. The government can regulate, but never own the means of production. We know what that is called.

That's all I am saying.

I agree Tort, those that scream loudest against the Democratic Socialist movement seem to have no problems with POTUS led socialism.

POTUS is sort of socialism-lite, some say. I can agree with that description. In any case, people are free to join a party and exercise the first amendment, not many middle ground folks have bought into the full manifesto, I think.

True, but we are hearing from the right that ANY form of socialism leads to communism. So…

U.S. Considered Special Forces Operation with Army Rangers and Navy SEALs to Secure Iran's Uranium

"The United States has reportedly examined a military option that could involve Army Rangers and Navy SEALs in an operation to recover Iran's enriched uranium, according to an exclusive New York Post report published on July 25, 2026. The concept would seek to secure nuclear material that air strikes might leave intact, but neither the U.S. Department of Defense nor U.S. Central Command has publicly confirmed that such an operation has been approved or assigned to specific units…"

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Armand