"Is it over?" Topic

SB,

Not opposed to much of what you wrote last. Yes, Congress needs to step up and start regathering the power the Constitution gives it against ALL presidents not just Trump. We should work on reducing the power of the Executive, although members of the Supreme Court are ardently bent on giving the executive even more power. Not really with you on the power back to the states argument but I do understand where you are coming from.

I find it interesting that you wrote that Trump has said we are in a new Cold War with China. I hadn't heard that. If true, then I wonder why in private he has stated how he wouldn't defend Taiwan and he seems unfazed by the massive
use of our missiles and weapons against Iran that is greatly reducing our stockpiles to a point that it would be hard to engage against China if a war would come.

Yes SB, also agree on much you say.

I do not think that there was a crisis to justify these measures and THAT is what makes them unique. I suppose it depends on what we think of as a crisis. The financial issue is set apart by virtue of the staggering amounts of money and sheer number of family members involved.

I wonder why in private he has stated how he wouldn't defend Taiwan

Unverified, no sources attributed except people like John Bolton who hate Trump saying they talked to someone who heard Trump say that in private. Who? When? Dunno. Who was the source? Dunno.

I find it interesting that you wrote that Trump has said we are in a new Cold War with China. I hadn't heard that.

LOL! Trump never said the specific phrase "new Cold War with China" -- he just launched the biggest trade war in decades, locked down their tech, called them the top strategic rival in his NSS, and made them the permanent focus of U.S. economic and military pressure.

Yes, Congress needs to step up and start regathering the power the Constitution gives it against ALL presidents not just Trump.

Agreed!

Russia Supplied Upgraded Shahed Kamikaze Drones to Iran for Attacks on U.S. Forces.

"U.S. intelligence officials have reportedly concluded that Russia supplied Iran with upgraded Shahed loitering munitions and targeting intelligence used in attacks against U.S. military forces and strategic assets in the Middle East, according to an assessment published by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) on August 2, 2026. If confirmed, the findings would mark a significant escalation in Moscow's military support for Tehran, strengthening Iranian long-range strike capabilities and increasing the threat to U.S. bases, deployed forces, and allied assets across the region…."

link

Will Putin be greeted next time with a blood-red carpet…?

With "friends" like these…

Armand

Russia was never a "friend," and Trump never said that. He's only said he wants to end the war in Ukraine and pull Russia out of China's sphere of influence. I support that goal. The Putin visit was Trump's "Let's make a deal" gesture of respect between leaders. Failed.

The red carpet treatment was then, this is now.

Democrats and the EU also conspired to help block any real peace deal, costing a lot of deaths and costs, and as time has gone on things have changed. There is no real peace deal in the works.

*The US has reverse engineeed the Shaheed and the "LUCAS" drone costs $30 USDK each, autonomous and remote operator options, GPS guided, 500 mile range. Far better than the "V1" style targeting of Iran's weapons which have only terminal phase targeting.

*The US has been experimenting with other drones against Iran -- underwater drones, surface sea drones, smaller drone swarms, and now testing the F-47 which will have several drone "wingmen."

*The US has been going through a crash course on extended combat operations and logistics, and now knows what it will take to fight a peer like China in terms of munitions -- production, rapid replenishment, time at sea, etc.

In Ukraine, looks like Trump has accepted the situation and has decided that since Putin doesn't want peace (really,nobody wants peace it seems) he will help Ukraine make war costly. He has transferred HIMARS deep strike rockets, ATACMS, authorized Patriot missiles, a lot of counterdrone systems, etc. The US is sharing Intel with Ukraine again, helping with targeting against Russian assets and ships -- including likely aid for Ukrainian strikes in Russian ships in the Sea of Azov, and Russian ships at sea, and sharing of intelligence to help Ukraine strike Russian oil refineries, pipelines, power plants, and related sites.

SB +1

Yes even talk of Ukrainians being allowed to develop Patriot and tomahawk missiles.

Not sure it will happen. If opposition will allow it. But it has been talked about and mentioned.

Iran is moving its tanks. Decades as a military planner taught me what that means

link

Armand

It's over…

Trump claims ‘total control' of Strait of Hormuz

link

Armand

"Iran is moving its tanks. Decades as a military planner taught me what that means" … a target rich environment??

No Deal Is Better Than a Bad Deal on Iran

link

Armand

U.S. Considered Special Forces Operation with Army Rangers and Navy SEALs to Secure Iran's Uranium

Them + Delta have been in consideration for that mission for a very long time.

However, if the US Forces are just going to occupy, hold and defend. That is one scenario. However those are some long supply lines. And will take a large number of elite troops.

Deep in the middle of "Injun Country" surrounded by a rabid fanatical enemy. Depending on aerial resupply. It can be done. And much better than before. However, this scenario reminds me of e.g. Dein Bein Phu … Kah Sahn, etc.

If plans are to dig up the nuke material. The AO will have to be secured as I outlined above. Plus would take a massive and major CE effort. With a lot heavy digging and earth moving assets. Including a number of CEs on the ground. Being defended by the US Spec Ops forces.

Unearthing the nukes, may even require a lot of demo and maybe airstrikes.

And this type of operation would take time … a lot of it. It is labor intensive with a lot of equipment. To dig it up plus the troops to provide security.

That operation would become very, very, large in a very short time.

Add to that the possibly of radioactive leaks/fallout. That would make this just that much more difficult.

Now even when you can get the nukes up to the surface. The material would most likely have to be move in heavy lead, etc. containers.

And the weight and the numbers of containers would take a large number of aircraft and sorties. To get all that nuclear material out of Iran.

Plus can the near-by terrain be acceptable to make unimproved airfield ?

While all this is going on what are the IRGC, etc. doing ? Many will be "martyred" by the great Satan's infidels. On the ground and in the air.

Kill more of them off is not a problem. But time, troops and other US assets could be costly …

It would be easier and safer to just keep killing off the IRGC, leadership, etc.

I'm sure the Pentagon has considered all of this … and have one or more OPLANs for this contingency and others as well …

Iran is moving its tanks. Decades as a military planner taught me what that means

Yes AFVs are used for offensive operations or a mobile heavy reserve in the defensive. For Iran to move any large Armor, Mech, etc. force(s) as we saw at e.g. Normandy really need air superiority plus a lot of ADA.

The Germans tried to move at night … but we have some of the NVDs in existence. Iran won't own the night … the US will …

When the last time Iran successfully used Armored/Mech forces in combat against an Armored/Mech force ? Back during the Iran-Iraq War decades ago. And both sides demonstrated incompetence in those battles. Costing heavy losses all around.

What would be their target(s)? There is nothing no US forces the ground, AFAIK. Are they moving those to protect their nuke site(s) ? Pick Axe Mtn ? Or ?

They don't have the ADA nor air forces to protect those heavy units on the ground. And the US has a very large number weapons that would turn most of those forces into burning metal coffins.

Would the try to have long columns of Armor, Mech, etc. rolling along roads and crossing bridges, etc. ? To get to their OBJs ? The Russians got lucky in Ukraine when they tried that. The IRGC won't be as lucky. Nothing more strike aircraft and gunship like is long road bound columns. E.g. the Basra Rd …

So far it seems Iran's ground forces only appear to be effective against unarmed protesters/rioters.

You all can and moan about the communists and islamists in the USA. But the fact remains. They are a small vocal, activists, well support threat. To the USA. We can't wait for it to get any worse.

And again "TDSers" addressing the POTUS as a socialist, communist, dictator, Nazi, etc. is all just political theater …

Your no doubt sincere if highly coloured examples as usual miss the point.

The only point: He does not agree with your point? 😏

Legion is from the U.S.
Skin in the game, so to speak. Actually his skin has been in the games before.

We have lost much, much more, for much, much less and for much less reason.

Don't be so concerned… Australia is not involved in the fight Ochoin.

"Don't worry! Be Happy!"

Again … not a disaster and NOT OVER.

+1 Ochoin

We may have reached the end of this chapter. Again, little support from Americans at home for the leadership and their lack of clarity and results based one what they tell the public. But we can't know for sure. If even one goal, other than the destruction of their regular military is met, we are sure to know, and that may allow a withdrawal. It was a great effort from the US military, but Iran is not that kind of opponent.

The problem remains and a shift in strategy may be needed. This could fall to the next POTUS.

All along I have been skeptical of achieving a result better than the JCPOA. My preferred course of action would have been to stay within the JCPOA framework and negotiate to improve the areas of weakness. The Iranians were honoring what they agreed to.

Once the decision was taken to initiate combat, I was prepared to take a wait and see approach. However, we now find ourself in a war without a clear direction and with seemingly no plan to bring matters to a conclusion. There is no end game here. Worse still, the illusion of being able to deter China from attacking Taiwan has been exposed and capabilities to project power in the Asia Pacific have been severely depleted for the foreseeable future. Relationships across the world have been fractured as a result of the conflict. Significant damage has been caused to the world economy and this will only get worse with historic low levels in global strategic oil stock reserves.

The directionless nature of where we are at the moment was evident this week with a threat to attack Oman. Is that really where this whole situation has brought us – a threat to bomb Oman.

The UK has a joint defence agreement with Oman. Would be interesting to watch how this conflict is wargamed in Scapa Flow or whereever Nelson rests.
The dollar is no longer the main reserve asset for reserves of central banks. Jupiter is descending

Actual immediate public health emergencies require prompt action which some complained about, but I think most understood. The US response to the pandemic was a mixed bag, IMO, with top down leadership performances not always on the mark. But with hundreds of thousands of US deaths, it is not the same situation as this war is now, IMO.

Not to minimize the danger Iran poses. But the info from POTUS since last summer on military results does not square with the assertion that Iran was about to have a nuke 6 months later. Credibility has degraded since Feb and public support is limited now. The buck stops with POTUS on this and the other issues here at home. Results were promised. Bombing Oman is the kind of remark that has undermined us at home and abroad. It makes no sense as a military action.

While staying within the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) appeared stable on the surface, it was a fundamentally flawed framework that merely kicked the crisis down the road. The agreement failed to address Iran's ballistic missile program, regional proxy warfare, and sunset clauses that would have eventually legalized its nuclear ambitions. Remaining in the pact would have granted Iran permanent economic relief while leaving its regional aggression unchecked. Initiating decisive action was not a preferred first resort, but a necessary correction to a policy of appeasement that was failing to secure long-term global stability.

Regarding global economic strain and depleted oil reserves, these are the unfortunate but unavoidable short-term costs of preventing far greater catastrophic disruptions in the future. Allowing hostile actors to permanently choke critical global shipping lanes would inflict permanent, irreversible damage on the world economy.

Actually this conflict has incentivized countries in the region to develop alternative methodologies to deliver their products, such as oil. Which in the longterm will weaken Iran and their abilities to threaten the world.

Current Pipeline and Infrastructure Projects

Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline (Petroline): Carries up to 7 million barrels of oil per day across the desert to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, with expansion proposals underway to add more capacity.

UAE's Habshan-Fujairah Pipeline: Moves crude directly to the Gulf of Oman, with fast-tracked construction aiming to double export capacity.

Multimodal Trade Corridors: Integrating land roads, dry ports, and rail networks (such as the Etihad Rail) to shift containerized cargo from Gulf ports to open ocean terminals.

Will not work for countries like Qatar and natural gas. But will help for some.

Tort, we disagree. :)

Please take the time to read all that has been released so far of what Anthony Fauci actually knew and hid purposefully from those of us in the U.S., while basking in the adulation of the media and politicians. If he knew, others did as well.

If you can't find it. I can post many links.

Iran offers up to $60 USDK bounty on US troops

"Iran is offering its citizens up to $60,000 USD to kill or capture American service members, as its army chief vows that U.S. bases in the Middle East will not be allowed to return to their prewar state. The bounty was announced Sunday by Maj. Gen. Amir Hatami, who said it was a result of Iranians' expressions of eagerness to contribute to the war effort, according to the state-run Islamic Republic News Agency. Hatami said the standard reward would be 5 billion tomans, equivalent to $30,000 USD, although the bounty would be doubled if a woman carried out either of the actions. It's unclear where such an attack or capture could take place, as the U.S. has not maintained ground forces inside Iran during the nearly six-month war…"

link

Armand

OVI +1

Your no doubt sincere if highly coloured examples as usual miss the point.

Perhaps it I you that misses the point … if I may … as usual …

Do you want the US to continue to lose prestige by continuing a fight they cannot win?

The war is not over … and just because it is not going fast enough for you does not mean the US won't or can't win.

Do you want US strength to continue to be whittled away as stockpiles of weapons grow ever smaller?

US losses are extremely low … thank the gods… And the US stockpiles may not be what they were at the start of the war. Some ordinances have been expended to a point. However, the US has many other pieces of ordinance to do the job. Many, many more … Something that was said at times – "The US is never outgunned." …

Do you want to see the US be forced to sign some sort of peace treaty that gives the Iranians everything they want?

Are you watching the reality as I am ? No one … again no one especially Iran will force the US to sign anything. Your assessment as usual is incorrect for a number of reasons. Including your biases among other ill-conceived conclusion, etc..

Do you want to see American service women and men to continue to bleed and die for nothing?

Again US losses are again very, very low. And that will continue to be so. Iran has limited effective means thanks to the US and IDF highly capable militaries. As those militaries' have destroyed much of Iran's offense capabilities, etc. And the US losses are not for nothing. Just because you say so does not make it true …

Of course I don't want to see any US or even IDF forces to take anymore losses. My Veteran Military Officers group just went to the local USAFR base recently. To welcome some of those Airmen who spent 8 months in the Mid-East. I looked into the eyes of many on them. They were happy to be home of course.

But none were upset with the fact they had to go to a war and do their duty. I and my other comrades saw some pride and even a little esprits. They understood what they are and what they had to do. I don't think you do …

We will be going out there again next month to do the same. As we all were Soldiers, Sailors, Airmen, Marines, etc. and understand what that means. And understand duty, honor, service in something bigger than oneself, etc.

No … you just don't get it … and never win …

I truly don't think you do … which again is no surprise …

All along I have been skeptical of achieving a result better than the JCPOA.

This inaccurate point has already been stretched to the limit. That conclusion is just incorrect, etc. And does not change because you try to repeat it.

E.g.:

The world is flat …

The moon is made if green cheese …

Etc. …

Bottom line the JCPOA was a bad piece of diplomacy. And I have repeatedly stated why many times before … Iran's theocratic leaders are bent on their goal to get nukes and initiate their "End Times"…

IF … if one does not understand by now. That Iran in no way, shape, form, plane of reality, etc. can be trusted to do anything that would stop them on their "holy" quest.

Or maybe some still believe the world is flat ?

The dollar is no longer the main reserve asset for reserves of central banks. Jupiter is descending

Yet many still want to do business with the USA. Some even building factories, etc. here in the USA. Billions from other nations have been invested in the US.

And still the USA has wisely closed its border. To keep illegal aliens including many hardcore criminals, spies, terrorists, etc. from entering. Why are they coming here ? Hmmm ?

But yes … some may still believe that the moon is made of green cheese.

And Jupiter is only ascending if one does not understand or see the bigger picture, etc.

But again, some still believe the world is flat too …

Pay attention … there is a war going on …

Iran offers up to $60 USD USDK bounty on US troops

This is nothing new. It just demonstrates how weak and desperate they are.

Iran wants to kill Americans … again. I'd say no matter how they address it … it is business as usual. However, even if they don't care about how many of them are killed …FWIW … The US & IDF have huge Iranian body count. Even if they killed more Iranians than we did …

All that matters is continuing to kill and destroy the islamsits and their military assets. In large amounts and often … If they want jihad … we can initiate a 21st Century version of a "Crusade". Against militant fanatical radical islamists.

yeah, Legion, read it again, I wrote "Jupiter is descending", not ascending. The bigger picture is that the USA is descending. Is it still the biggest economy of the world? Yes. But there are cracks visible. And the trust is gone that the USA is a reliable place to buy bonds.

Ironical that you compare me with flat earther, I surely don't deny science as much as the Trump government, calling the clima catastrophe a chinese hoax or putting anti-waxer into top jobs.

Yeah there is a war going on, and the world is laughing about the USA cause someone in Iran knows how to make little funny videos.

Legion,

Why do you feel that you have the right to insult my intelligence when I have a difference of opinion to you? Let's be clear, you don't.

Tort, for you. This came out yesterday.

Subject: David Morens, former NIAID adviser, pleads guilty in COVID-19 records scheme – CBS News

link

Hard to get the below from the CBS write up. Not surprisingly. But I've heard and read more elsewhere.

The basics of what he and his friends hid.

Dr. David Morens, a former senior adviser to Dr. Anthony Fauci at the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), hid email correspondence and government records regarding the origins of COVID-19 and discussions over controversial bat coronavirus research grants. [1, 2, 3]

Hidden Communications and Content
* Private Emails: Used his personal Gmail account instead of official government servers to evade Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests. [1, 2]
*
* Grant Discussions: Concealed messages regarding efforts to restore and revive a canceled EcoHealth Alliance bat coronavirus research grant linked to the Wuhan Institute of Virology. [1, 2]
*
* Lab-Leak Narrative: Hidden talks aimed at countering the hypothesis that COVID-19 leaked from a Chinese laboratory. [1, 2]
*
* Behind-the-Scenes Coordination: Obscured correspondence with outside nonprofit executives coordinating strategies against political opposition and administration officials. [1]
*

35thOVI: who cares where Covid-19 came from, it is important how anybody dealt and deals with it. Now get over it, there is a war going on Legion 4 said.

Dogtail, I care.

We were lied to. About everything. By our governments, our media and our health officials.

Worse, people went along with it, willingly and collaborated against friends and neighbors.

The reason I brought it up was in response to Ochoin's " disastrous consequences" post.

I repeat it for you:

———

At any rate, this is all manageable by using forum features and not worth my time for further discussion. We should be discussing the unnecessary war and its disastrous consequences on this thread.

" Disastrous consequences" ???

catastrophizing much?

WW1 had disastrous consequences.

But let's jump to more recent:

gain-of-function research in Wuhan, China, had "disastrous consequences".

Global Public Health Toll
* Mass Mortality: The World Health Organization (WHO) has recorded over 6.9 million confirmed deaths, though updated epidemiological models indicate excess mortality has driven the actual loss of life to an estimated 22.1 million people. [1, 2]
* Widespread Infection: More than 766 million laboratory-confirmed cases have been documented across 200 countries and territories. [1, 2]
* Healthcare Collapse: The sheer speed of transmission heavily overwhelmed hospital capacity, particularly during the initial local surge in Wuhan and subsequent regional waves worldwide. [1]
* Chronic Health Conditions: Millions of survivors continue to face long-term physical and cognitive impairments collectively known as Long COVID.

Macroeconomic and Financial Ruins
* Global Supply Chain Failures: Drastic lockdowns and manufacturing shutdowns triggered severe multi-year supply chain bottlenecks, microchip shortages, and a historic 7% drop in international commercial commerce.
* Widespread Job Losses: Strict business closures temporarily erased livelihood infrastructure, plunging over 1.6 billion informal and low-wage workers out of their employment.
* Poverty and Inflation Surge: Outbreak mitigation efforts pushed an estimated 40 to 60 million individuals into extreme poverty, followed by an aggressive global inflation wave. [1, 2]

Deep Societal and Systemic Disruption
* Educational Halts: Blanket school closures left more than 1.2 billion students without formal, in-person instruction, stalling developmental metrics worldwide. [1, 2]
* Mental Health Crisis: Extended isolation and grief caused massive increases in substance abuse, anxiety disorders, and domestic violence. [1, 2]

The virus was then in turn used to:

During the pandemic, governments worldwide implemented unprecedented measures that significantly expanded central state authority, with critics arguing that public health was used to justify long-term power grabs. [1, 2]

Permanent and Expanded Emergency Powers
* Executive Decrees: Many leaders bypassed traditional legislative voting to rule entirely by executive order, creating a precedent for centralized command. [1, 2]
* Delayed Elections: Dozens of countries postponed local and national elections, directly extending the terms of sitting governments. [1]
* Normalization of Emergency: Legal frameworks created for the crisis remain on the books, lowering the legal threshold for future state-of-emergency declarations. [1, 2]

Mass Surveillance and Digital Tracking
* Contact Tracing Infrastructure: Governments deployed mobile apps, facial recognition, and geolocation tracking to monitor citizen movement. [1, 2]
* Health Passports: Digital vaccine credentials restricted access to public spaces, creating a state-controlled mechanism for domestic travel and commerce.
* Data Integration: Intelligence and law enforcement agencies gained long-term access to confidential medical and location data registries.

Suppression of Dissent and Censorship
* Protest Bans: Public health mandates effectively outlawed assembly, allowing police to break up unrelated political demonstrations and strikes. [1]
* Information Control: Central states pressured tech companies to flag or remove content deemed "misinformation," solidifying state control over public discourse. [1]
* Media Crackdowns: Several nations passed emergency laws criminalizing reporting that contradicted official state narratives. [1, 2, 3]

Economic and Regulatory Encroachment
* Business Closures: Central authorities gained the power to arbitrarily classify businesses as "essential" or "non-essential," effectively choosing economic winners and losers.
* Monetary Intervention: Massive state spending and central bank expansions gave federal governments unprecedented control over private industries through corporate bailouts and subsidies.
* Border Closures: National governments reasserted tight control over international and internal borders, reversing decades of free-movement policies. [1, 2, 3]

Mandatory mask wearing, mandatory jabs, police in the streets of some cities, forcing citizens to stay in their homes.

We are all still suffering the after effects of.

Was it an "accident"?

I'm just touching the tip of the iceberg here. Read the "good doctor's" leaks that just keep coming out.

This was and is "disastrous consequences".

Iran is just another conflict, that HAS NOT ENDED YET.

——

Now we find day after day, more lies and more coverups. People want to brush it aside.

This WAS "disastrous consequences" Dogtail! Not, the conflict with Iran.

The war in the Ukraine is much, much worse and the media and most on TMP lock on this.

One more Dogtail:

Yes. But there are cracks visible. And the trust is gone that the USA is a reliable place to buy bonds.

Yet our economy runs strong. Market up over 300 today. Still hitting all time highs.

Resilient GDP & Growth Outlook
* Consistent Expansion: Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is projected to sustain a healthy growth rate of around 1.5% to 2.0% for the remainder of 2026. [1, 2]
* Defying Global Stagnation: Flexible markets and rapid investment have allowed the U.S. to consistently outperform advanced rival economies in Europe and Asia. [1, 2]
* Long-Term Productivity Gains: Economic forecasts show upgraded growth estimates heading toward 2030, driven by anticipated AI-led productivity gains finally materializing in macroeconomic data. [1]

💻 The AI Capital Expenditure Boom
* Shift to Investment-Led Growth: As consumer spending moderates due to affordability constraints, the primary engine of economic expansion has successfully shifted to robust business investment. [1]
* Tech and Data Infrastructure: Corporations are deploying massive amounts of capital into data centers and hardware to satisfy generative AI demand, which analysts expect will support economic activity through 2027. [1, 2]

⚡ Sustainable Cost & Structural Advantages
* Lower Energy Costs: American manufacturing and industrial sectors benefit from significantly cheaper energy and fossil fuels than European competitors, providing a distinct global cost advantage.
* Deep Capital Markets: The U.S. continues to dominate global leadership in emerging tech because its deep capital markets give expanding startups unparalleled freedom to take risks and scale.
* Fiscal Impulse: Elevated government spending and deficits—while a long-term fiscal concern—continue to function as a short-term stimulus by keeping money circulating actively in the private sector.[1, 2, 3]

💼 Stable Labor Dynamics & Spending
* Historical Norm Labor Market: While the unemployment rate has ticked up from its 2023 lows to around 4.3%, it remains well within a healthy, normal historical range.
* Wealth-Backed Expenditures: High household net worth and tax policy tailwinds continue to provide an underlying buffer that protects consumer spending from dropping precipitously. [1, 2]

Interest rates today sit in a restrictive target range of 3.50% to 3.75%, a dramatic shift from 2022 when the Federal Reserve was frantically hiking rates from near-zero to combat soaring inflation. [1, 2]
While rates have moderated from their peak of 5.50% hit in 2023

Do we have issues? Of course! Don't we always? But we are easily self sufficient in oil and other resources.

I'd much rather be here than Europe or elsewhere.

And

Let's be honest. When the wolf comes the their doors, who you going to call?

Russia?
North Korea?
Japan?
Australia?
UK?
Germany?
GhostBusters?

No… We all know who.

I'll add, do those from overseas talk about the current politics or going ons in Germany or the rest of the EU on TMP? Almost never.

But they sure do about the U.S.

No, Our sun is not setting, as long as we dominate your minds and thoughts. To quote an old phrase: We are "living rent-free in your heads". 😏

About time.

The United Arab Emirates suspended all trade, commercial exchanges and financial transactions with Iran after accusing Tehran of firing ballistic missiles toward maritime traffic.

The action severs one of the Islamic Republic's most important commercial and financial links and threatens to close off an economic route President Donald Trump's sanctions have struggled to reach. It also further deepens Iran's isolation amid its standoff with the U.S.

The UAE supplied 31% of Iran's imports, valued at roughly $21 USD billion, in 2024, and was the destination for 13% of its exports, according to World Trade Organization trade data.

Miad Maleki, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and former Treasury official, said the UAE is one of Tehran's two key economic lifelines.

"The UAE and China are Iran's two economic bloodlines. If UAE is serious about its economic embargo against Iran, then it'll close the one the U.S. Navy couldn't touch," Maleki wrote on X.

WW1 and COVID? Someone introduced those subjects because they don't want to defend the proposition actually being discussed: was this war a wise decision, what was the achievable end state, and have the results justified the costs?

"WWI was worse" isn't an answer. Almost every bad foreign-policy decision in American history can be defended by pointing to something worse.

and it wouldn't replenish a single missile, reopen Hormuz, restore a damaged alliance, produce an Iranian surrender, or explain what victory in this war is supposed to look like.

That's the remarkable thing about this discussion. Every time someone asks about the actual results of the Iran war, the subject becomes October 7, Islamists, WWI, COVID, Fauci, Ukraine, or what somebody in Europe thinks about America. It appears to be a tacit admission that the war has become a sprawl.

If six months into a war the answer to questions about its status is essentially "the war isn't over yet," that isn't a defense of the strategy. It also doesn't mean we have to wait until the hypothetical very end to stave off recognizing it as a disaster. "Disastrous" doesn't mean "one of the worst events in human history."

A war can be a strategic/economic disaster without producing Somme-level casualties. If you enter a war and expend enormous military and economic resources and leave yourself with no attractive way out, that's a disaster in the ordinary meaning of the word.

Why do you feel that you have the right to insult my intelligence when I have a difference of opinion to you? Let's be clear, you don't.

Yes … let's be clear … that goes both ways. However, your opinion that you keep repeating about the JCPOA is inaccurate, etc. And I'm not the only one to say and repeat it about the JCPOA.

Not only from some here but from senior retired Military officers of much higher rank that I was. And they know more about the JCPOA and the billions of $ former POTUSs gave to Iran. Then anyone here does. And the foolishness of giving the enemy billions of $ certainly helped to make Iran a bigger threat than it already was … To be clear …

And here we are today. Suffering from very poor choices made by previous POTUS's and their admins. Who were fighting way beyond their weight class.

My comments were not meant to be demeaning but trying to use light hyperbole. Of course to be clear if you think I wronged you hit the [!]. Advise Bill of my transgression …

No, it certainly does not go both ways. I don't come on here and issue insults to people (TDS, must believe in flat earth, etc) that I disagree with.
May preferred way of dealing with it is to directly tell you that I am not prepared to accept those sort of comments directed at me.

On to the factual matter. My opinion that I have stated about the JCPOA is not inaccurate. Let's address what I have said about it.

1. Until the US pulled out of the JCPOA, there was no evidence that Iran was not following what was agreed to. No-one has challenged me on this point. The fact that people on this board don't think they can be trusted is irrelevant – the evidence says that they were in full compliance (I believe before that I posted the US National Intelligence report to Congress that explicitly stated this point).

2, The JCPOA had some problems which I have acknowledged. The two key ones being a) It did not cover ballistic missiles in any meaningful way, b) Some of the inspection criteria for military or undeclared sites were not immediate enough. There were other smaller points, but these were the two main ones.

3. With the carrot and stick approach there was the possibility to renegotiate the points of contention. The US had the self declared Art of the Deal master, surely this would have been a small task to renegotiate the concerning points. The evidence suggests that the problem was with the deal, not compliance with a negotiated deal.

The strongest counter I have yet to see on this forum to the above points is that the Iranians can never be trusted and anyone doubting that is delusional.

Every time someone asks about the actual results of the Iran war, the subject becomes October 7, Islamists,

Yes both 7 Oct and islamists are all part of the number of reasons leading up to the current situation in Iran. Those things are integral IMO to explain how and what lead up to the US and IDF having to strike Iran.

E.g. The assassinations in Sarajevo 1914 sparking WWI. I'll leave it at that. No need to point out more examples …

We have to remember the role that Netanyahu likely played in getting Trump to go to war as well. He is a personal friend of the family. And that the Trumps have major financial interests in the ME. Why send Kushner, a civilian? Maybe because he has known Netanyahu since childhood. He can advocate for redevelopment in the region, including Gaza and the Trump plan for a huge resort in Quatar. Kushner is beholden to the Saudis, who saved his business with a 2 billion investment last term. In short, he is a well known figure to everyone and is not a part of the US government. But the Trumps may have backed themselves into a corner of some sort here.

The negativity on the JCPOA was more of a campaign weapon than a well researched and detailed critique. Some of the proposals that Trump has recently floated, like massive cash for reconstruction and retaining missiles, put the JCOPA into focus and a better light. But it seems that the POTUS does not walk softly while carrying the big stick in the ME.

The latest distraction action…North Korea, with Kim sitting on a pile of nukes. "He is unthreatening and respectful." Then let it go for now and finish the Iran War first.

Incavart and others. If you are not going to read previous thread posts, don't respond to just the last two or three and think you understand what those responses were in response to. 🙄

WW1 and Covid were in response to Ochoin's hyperbole remarke:

We should be discussing the unnecessary war and its disastrous consequences on this thread.

I responded:

" Disastrous consequences" ??? 😏

catastrophizing much?

WW 1, Covid were worthy of the statement "disastrous consequences". Not this conflict.

A war can be a strategic/economic disaster without producing Somme-level casualties. If you enter a war and expend enormous military and economic resources and leave yourself with no attractive way out, that's a disaster in the ordinary meaning of the word.

Which Iran is not, even though so many WANT it be and the MSM and Democrats smash us in the face with daily.

None of us know the end strategy. We have been debating this since day 2. Neither you nor I do. You are just repeating what the MSM and opposition has been saying, again since day 2.

Who knows, it might be when it ends.

But it way past overdue.

There is a legit purpose here, as opposed to say; the unnecessary debacle of the Afghanistan "withdrawal".

The current conflict with Iran has cost the U.S. an estimated $37.5 USD billion after several months of operations. While this is a high daily expenditure rate, it is far lower than the enormous multi-trillion-dollar totals and long-term economic drains of major historical conflicts like the post-9/11 wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Spending ComparisonIran Conflict: Direct military operations have cost roughly $37.5 USD billion, with broader economic and consumer impacts (such as surging fuel prices) estimated by groups like Moody's Analytics to add over $130 USD billion.

Afghanistan & Iraq Wars: The post-9/11 wars spanned two decades and cost U.S. taxpayers several trillion dollars, with peak single-year war funding hitting over $280 USD billion.

Rate of Spend: While daily spending in the Iran conflict—averaging nearly $900 USD million per day—is intense, the total accumulation of resources remains a fraction of what was spent on long-term ground occupations.

Key Resource Differences

Duration and Footprint: The U.S. campaign against Iran has relied heavily on naval strikes, air power, and missile defense rather than a multi-year ground invasion and nation-building effort.

Munitions Strain: A notable constraint in the Iran conflict has not been raw dollar cost, but rather the rapid depletion of specialized, high-cost interceptor stockpiles (like Patriot and THAAD missiles), which places a heavy strain on global military readiness.

So a strain on some munitions, just as we strained some munitions supplying the Ukraine. But most did not care. At least not here.

And NO the conflict HAS NOT ENDED yet.

23 minutes ago
US quietly establishes Hormuz oil corridor – Axios

The US military has quietly established a shipping corridor through the Strait of Hormuz that is helping move about 10 million barrels of oil a day, Axios reported Wednesday, citing two US officials.

The operation has been underway for several weeks, with 15 to 20 tankers moving in and out of the strait each night through a southern channel along the coast of Oman, the officials said.

The US military is also helping empty tankers enter the Persian Gulf from the Arabian Sea to load oil in the UAE, Bahrain and Kuwait before coordinating their passage back through the strait. The task force overseeing the operation is being run from the US Army's 82nd Airborne Division headquarters at Fort Bragg, according to the report.

One US official told Axios that Washington has controlled the southern lane of the strait for two months, saying the Revolutionary Guards could still be a "nuisance" but did not control the waterway.

President Donald Trump told Axios Wednesday that a "tremendous amount of oil" was moving through the Strait of Hormuz.

An example of ACTUAL "disastrous consequences"

Today in the news:

Deputy Defense Minister Cezary Tomczyk warned a large-scale Kremlin provocation could occur 'within a few months'

Russia's threat of "consequences" against Britain and a stark warning from a senior Polish defense official are intensifying concerns that Moscow could seek to test NATO directly as the war in Ukraine continues.

Polish Deputy Defense Minister Cezary Tomczyk said his country is actively preparing for the possibility of conflict, telling Super Express in an interview published Aug. 17: "We are preparing for war, hoping that it never happens."

…

A European diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity, backed Tomczyk and said Poland sees a pattern of escalating Russian pressure on multiple fronts. "We are hurrying to be prepared for war since Russia is giving us and our neighbors constant signals that they want us back as their vassals, their colonial backyard," the diplomat told Fox News Digital.

The diplomat pointed to what they described as Russian disinformation campaigns, cyberattacks, sabotage efforts and repeated tests of Poland's air defenses, as well as increasingly frequent nuclear rhetoric from Russian officials and propagandists.

"Altogether, it shows quite clearly that if Russia or Belarus saw any chance to attack Poland to destroy an obstacle to restoring the Soviet or Tsarist Russian empire in Eastern Europe, they would do it without hesitation," the diplomat said.

The diplomat added that Tomczyk therefore had "quite solid bases to state his prediction," while stressing that the concern was not rooted in hostility toward ordinary Russians.

"We want to have Russia as a good neighbor, business partner. We would like to host their tourists. We want to have a cultural exchange with them," the diplomat said. "But they — at least the imperialists who are the foundation of the Putin administration — would like to turn Poland, the Baltics and, of course, Ukraine back into their colonial part of Europe."

THAT would result in "disasters consequences". Now that puts the remark in perspective.

Those who have disagreed about this conflict here, still disagree.
Those who were for it, still are for it.

So no minds have changed.

I don't think the President has been hard enough! He should never stop bombing while negotiating. My advice if I were talking to him (most won't agree) .

1. The Guard and radical fundamentalist Islamic leaders of Iran do not care about the economic consequences and its effect on the Iranian people. Their religion and power are ALL that matter.

2. The Iranian people are not going to revolt. Those who would have are dead or in prison and will soon be dead

3. The only negotiations the current leadership will deal in, is pain. Specifically their own and their immediate families. They will only negotiate with a foot on their neck.

4. Please understand "Taqiyya" and specifically how it is conceived by Iranian leadership! You and our leaders must understand it.

5. Forget the strategy of precision munitions. We are past that point in Iran after multiple failed negotiations. Bomb the hell out of them.

6. They have placed bounties on our troops capture. Take the gloves off! I suggested using their leaders children and relatives in the U.S. as "guests" on ships trying to get through the straits. 5 or so aboard a ship, for a pleasant "cruise". Will they fire on them then?

7. Understand radical fundamentalist, Islam as practiced and has continued to be practiced, since the initial invasions of 600 AD.

8. Let Israel back at it. Taking out leadership and scientists was working! Take them out at lower levels and HIT the guard. HARD!! Carpet bomb those routes into Iran from Pakistan and stop the missile resupply!

Torts idea of some hit and run would help as well. We control the night.

And NO the conflict HAS NOT ENDED yet.

But look at how far the objectives have wandered. At the outset Trump described goals including destroying Iran's ballistic-missile launch and production capability, destroying its navy, preventing a nuclear weapon, and ending its ability to arm proxies. Regime change also entered into the mix.

Then there was supposed to be a diplomatic way out. In June, the White House celebrated an agreement/MOU as a major breakthrough. But the resulting 60-day negotiating period expired this Monday without the wider peace agreement or reopening of Hormuz it was supposed to produce.

And today's picture is extraordinary with most pollical science experts holding that this nearly six-month war is essentially a strategic stalemate, with both sides trying to outlast the other. Meanwhile Iran is still capable of threatening shipping, and the UAE today cut financial and economic transactions with Iran after accusing Tehran of launching missiles toward maritime traffic.

So without putting you on the spot, let's put the question much more simply:

Can the administration itself tell us, today, what stage of this war we're in? Not what we've destroyed; that's a battle-damage assessment. Not the war isn't over; that's a calendar observation.

The questions are: Which original war aims remain? Which have been accomplished? Which have been abandoned? What are we presently fighting to obtain? What terms would the United States accept to stop fighting? And if Iran refuses those terms, what's Plan B?

"None of us know the end strategy."

That's remarkable because youre simultaneously insisting that the war is justified, overdue, not disastrous, and shouldn't be judged because it isn't finished. In other words: you don't know where we're going, but youre certain we're going the right way.

I don't think the President has been hard enough! He should never stop bombing while negotiating.

"Bomb the hell out of them," "Take the gloves off," and "Carpet bomb those routes into Iran."

More bombing isn't an end state. Killing more IRGC personnel isn't an end state. Destroying more missiles isn't an end state. Inflicting greater pain isn't an end state. Those things are "means". The missing question remains: means toward what attainable political result?

Every time your proposed bombing strategy fails to produce the political outcome, how do you distinguish between not enough force yet and force can't achieve this political objective?Because right now it sounds like the answer is always "more".

What evidence would change your mind that the strategy itself isn't working, not merely that we haven't bombed enough?

And notice the contradiction in your own eight points. You say Iranian leaders don't care about economic consequences; the population won't revolt; the leadership is motivated by religion and power; negotiations only work through personal pain and previous negotiations have failed.

Okay. Then how does this war end?

If the regime won't respond normally you're actually making the case that there is no obvious coercive mechanism connecting American bombing to a desired political outcome.

And your answer to my "disaster" argument is still the same category error. Iran can't be disastrous because Iraq/Afghanistan cost trillions or a possible NATO-Russia war would be actually disastrous. That's basically: "This house ain't on fire because I've seen bigger fires."

The Hormuz corridor is a legitimate point in your favor, incidentally. If the (Axios) report youre quoting is accurate, moving approx. 10 million barrels per day through a protected corridor is an operational accomplishment. But it doesn't answer the strategic question. In fact, requiring the US military to operate an escorted oil corridor through Hormuz months into a war supposedly intended to improve the Iranian security problem isn't evidence that the original decision was a good one.

"let Israel back in,"

I suppose the natural follow-up is "what exactly do you think Israel can achieve that the U.S., with vastly more resources, cannot?"

They have placed bounties on our troops capture. Take the gloves off! I suggested using their leaders children and relatives in the U.S. as "guests" on ships trying to get through the straits. 5 or so aboard a ship, for a pleasant "cruise". Will they fire on them then?

Are you seriously proposing using family members who aren't combatants as leverage? How is that consistent with the laws of war or the values you claim to defend?

Again, your

"None of us know the end strategy."

If this is true, why are you so certain the strategy is succeeding?

No, it certainly does not go both ways. I don't come on here and issue insults to people (TDS, must believe in flat earth, etc) that I disagree with.
May preferred way of dealing with it is to directly tell you that I am not prepared to accept those sort of comments directed at me.

Again … let Bill know I was not playing by TMP rules. If you want an apology … I don't think I have anything to apologize for. I regret nothing in my posts.

The strongest counter I have yet to see on this forum to the above points is that the Iranians can never be trusted and anyone doubting that is delusional.

Yeah … I think I have said something like that a number of times. As in reality it is accurate, true, obvious, etc. Iran's islamists have demonstrated again and again that they can't be trusted in any way, shape or form, etc.

That has to be clear by now to all … that that is a fact … And it won't change until Iran's islamists are no longer in the picture … i.e. no longer alive …

SB +1

OVI +1

Inca 77 … I don't think there is anything anyone can say to properly answer all your questions to your satisfaction.

Frankly again, I see/hear as does anyone what is said on the different news outlets. On TV, the net, etc.

No need for me to again comment about my POV on this war … It is well known by now. Kinetic actions with very strong sanctions. Like an old fashion siege somewhat … No need to put US lives anymore at risk then there has to be.

Short answer – air assets of all types plus Army MLRS batteries. With the strong sanctioning and following the $ …

The threat of Iran's fanatical islamists getting nukes is just too much to let this go. Not kicking it down the street for the next POTUS, etc. …

As I have said a number of times before … We really don't have all the intel, what is actually going on behind closed doors, in the dark … Besides OPSEC being a big consideration, the biases of the various news agencies worldwide. Only feeds the masses what fits their polarized narrative and agenda …

It seems I have said all of this before. Repeating it is more time wasted, IMO.

Iran's Attacks on Ships in Hormuz Mount, Testing U.S. Military Restraint

link

Armand

That's remarkable because youre simultaneously insisting that the war is justified, overdue, not disastrous, and shouldn't be judged because it isn't finished. In other words: you don't know where we're going, but youre certain we're going the right way.

No, I've said the war was long overdue and has long been very necessary. Put off and kicked down the field, to be the problem for the next president. Each time it was put off, it benefited the Iranians and made any conflict, that much more difficult.

If you remember, I said this conflict would probably NOT end with a conclusive outcome. I hoped it would, but realistically thought this would be an ongoing series of conflicts, having to use a "rinse and repeat" methodology when it became necessary. I actually said, using the Israeli concept of "mowing the grass".

Back then, I believe it was in response to your questions. I don't believe you being happy with that. I still stand by that.

Without a ground campaign to totally eradicate the fundamentalist Muslims in Iran, or a successful supported revolt in Iran (whose time I believe has passed), I don't see what "you would believe" is a "strategic" end.

Why don't you, in your own words, tell us what would be a "strategic" end?

Anyway, the President to date has shown that ground forces are out and anything more than the force he is using, will not happen.

So my ideas are proposed only in the methodologies he has accepted so far.

I would be much harder.

The one, not in his wheelhouse, would be using their family members on ships trying to get through the straits.

Don't like that? 😏

Hey, just giving them a nice safe ship cruise, taking in the sites of the ME. Free ride, free meals, free rooms. Only danger to them, would be from their own people, or their mines. We are not hurting them in any way. Why should they be any safer than the innocent sailors on the ships? Those same civilian sailors, the world cares little about. Those sailors are "civilians" as well!

Oh! And they have placed a bounty on OUR military members!

So Why Not?

Israel? Because they don't have our scruples. They are much better at killing the leadership, because they are willing to hit where they are. After decades of their people, of all kinds, being killed by Iranian surrogates, why should they not be?

They were having an impact early on. Trump made the mistake of stopping them in their good work. Just as he has stopping the bombing to negotiate. By NOT bombing the roads in from Pakistan. By not hitting any vehicle spotted trying to dig out. By not hitting anything that resembles something military.

As of this morning, it seems that he believes economic warfare and patience, will eventually work against the regime. Will it work? I don't know. He thinks it will.

President Donald Trump on Wednesday announced what he called the "most crushing economic operation ever taken against any country," threatening sweeping consequences for nations and businesses that provide Iran with an economic lifeline as he seeks to further isolate Tehran.

"No one has given the Islamic Republic of Iran a greater opportunity to make a Deal than me," Trump said in a post shared on X.

"TRAGICALLY, for them, they have failed to take it. Therefore, today, I am announcing the MOST CRUSHING ECONOMIC OPERATION EVER TAKEN AGAINST ANY COUNTRY!"

"This will be Economic Warfare and Isolation on an unprecedented scale," Trump said, claiming Iran's navy is gone, its air force destroyed, its military factories reduced to rubble, its currency worthless and the country "hanging by a thread."

Trump also warned that "ANY country" allowing its financial institutions, businesses, airports or government entities to provide "any type of lifeline to Iran" would face "TREMENDOUS Economic Consequences."

"Oil smuggling, swap lines, cash transfers, exchange houses, ship registries, front companies — it all needs to stop NOW," he said.

"You know who you are," Trump added, calling the campaign an "ECONOMIC D-DAY" and urging U.S. allies to help "isolate, and defeat, the Iran threat."

Trump said Iran's leaders are "on the ropes" and that the measures would "cripple them and their ability to project terror worldwide."

"IRAN WILL NEVER HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON," he said.

But I still think it will become "rinse and repeat" in the long run.

The same, whenever radical fundamentalist Islam arises, as it always does.

So I'll never convince you otherwise and you will never convince me.

I see successes even if this all ended today. You don't.

Legion +1

yeah, Legion, read it again, I wrote "Jupiter is descending", not ascending. The bigger picture is that the USA is descending

…

No I know what you posted … The US is not in the shape that many in the media, Congress, etc. are "reporting" …

Ironical that you compare me with flat earther,

Yes … to make the point that what you so strongly suggest in not reality. E.g. like the earth is flat … It defies/denies what is a fact.

the world is laughing about the USA cause someone in Iran knows how to make little funny videos.

Well whoever is laughing including Iran won't get the last laugh.

I'd think any nation even beyond the West would laud ending Iran's nuclear ambitions. Which is a threat to more than just Israel and the US.

Or their support to other islamists e.g. Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, Iraq's Shia militias, etc., etc. That are just a homicidal as Iran's IRGC, etc. E.g. 7 Oct …

The slaughter of thousands of their own people. Which is still going on. The 80%+ of Iran's population who in no way supports this fanatical islamsit dead cult.

Seems a lot of people talk about human rights … but few seriously do anything about it. "Oh … it's too hard!"

Again does this lack of support from many in the world is more about disdain, etc. for the US POTUS and his Admin ?

Or some sort of the continuing hatred for the Jews ?

Or do some don't want to sacrifice a bit to remove this islamist plague on the planet ? As they don't think to care about the fact that Iran's militant islamists are part of a larger radical fundamentalists moslem brotherhood type movement going on worldwide ? E.g. in the UK, France, Spain, all over the Med. And yes even here in the USA.

So you, Martyn, etc. can choose to be upset that I was maybe a little "harsh". In my examples of what I though was making false comparisons to beliefs about the moon and the earth. To demonstrate how wrong I thought some comments that were posted here.

So sue me … I can be a little rough around the edges. That is not a a falsehood or rumor. It is a fact …

Again nothing is stopping anyone from letting Bill know … I was not playing well with others.

Again, I'm wasting too much time here … as bottom line I really don't give a …

I'd think any nation even beyond the West would laud ending Iran's nuclear ambitions. Which is a threat to more than just Israel and the US.

Their overwhelming desire for near term political advantage over Trump has them defacto siding with Iran and parroting Putin/Xi/Khamenei propaganda like the USS Lincoln tempest now, the "America's out of ammo!" tempest yesterday and whatever new tempest tomorrow brings. They'll deal with having sliced off their own nose to spite their face when they think their about to pass out from blood loss…

As for the end game-- dunno, but totalitarian dictators are rarely as structurally sound as we think, rarely as strong as the pretend to be. Like the USSR hid its weaknesses until it imploded, that could also happen to Iran.