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"If Russia Wins" Topic


3 Posts

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80 hits since 24 Apr 2026
©1994-2026 Bill Armintrout
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Zardoz

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Tango0124 Apr 2026 1:42 p.m. PST

" This is a 2028 scenario book written by Carlo Masala, which I read for my day job writing a defence analysis for a European think tank. However, it is also a credible scenario for modern warfare and wargamers.

The book is set in March 2028. It assumes that the USA has sold out Ukraine and forced it into a land-for-peace deal with Russia. Zelensky loses the subsequent election, Ukraine descends into chaos, and Putin stands down as Russian president. The West is trying to work out if this signals a new direction in Russian foreign policy, or another Putin puppet.

In Brussels, NATO is split, with the US focusing on the Pacific and European nations unwilling to increase defence expenditure to levels required to seriously deter Russian expansionism. In Moscow, they have learned the lessons from the optimistic 'Special Military Operation' analysis and have adopted the 1936 Rhineland model to target Russian-speaking areas outside the Russian border. In effect, this means just take action, tell everyone your objectives are limited, and rely on a weak reaction…"

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JMcCarroll24 Apr 2026 4:30 p.m. PST

Unless they use nukes, Poland would stop them in their tracks (assuming Russia has any left).

Grattan54 Supporting Member of TMP24 Apr 2026 6:03 p.m. PST

Agreed.

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