"Russia’s Grinding War in Ukraine" Topic

Vladimir Putin Is Much Weaker Than You Think

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Armand

Probably. What's the difference?
If she writes favorably for Ukraine, she's hardly objective. But if she writes favorably about the enemy, that information is trustworthy.
Positive information should be gleaned from enemy or neutral sources. Objective assessments should only come from neutral ones.
For example, I'm extremely skeptical of Russian sources when they write about Russia's successes and victories… and of Ukrainian and Western ones when they write about Ukraine's successes and victories. But when the enemy praises your achievements, they're usually forced to do so, under the pressure of reality.

Ha… And what's in your latest article besides distorted interpretations of a well-known situation?
Has Putin strengthened his personal security system in light of the recent trend of attacks on state leaders? That's reasonable and natural. This isn't paranoia—it's a reasonable approach.

Did Russia try to assassinate Zelensky? Are you serious? The best way to do that would have been to attack him with missiles. But that never happened! Propaganda nonsense…

Have the Ukrainians pushed back the Russians anywhere? Where? And by how much? Name those settlements lost by the Russians that I can see on a map.)))

The Ukrainians did achieve some success by using longer-range drones, complicating Russian logistics. But this is only a temporary advantage—this "swing" continues throughout the war, with the Russians sometimes gaining a technological lead, and the Ukrainians sometimes gaining a technological lead. But it's only a temporary advantage, nothing more.

Yes, Ukrainians can now attack Russian refineries and oil infrastructure, which causes certain problems. But these problems are nothing compared to Ukraine's. There's simply nothing to talk about here…

Tango… no need for value judgments. They change daily, following the wind. ))) We need numbers. Clear, concrete, impossible to argue with. But the numbers tell a completely different story…

Russia's War of Self-Destruction

"Russia's war against Ukraine has precipitated a large-scale structural decline for the Kremlin across economic, military, and geopolitical dimensions. Domestically, its war-driven economy is consistently strained by rising fiscal pressure, inflation, and structural imbalances linked to continuous military spending. While the war remains challenging for Ukraine to sustain as well, Kyiv has demonstrated it is increasingly capable of sustaining a war of attrition. On the battlefield, Ukraine's destruction of key logistical targets inside Russia has been weakening the aggressor's ability to wage war. Meanwhile, Russia continues to lose soldiers at an alarming rate with little results to show for it. Although both sides receive assistance from external partners, these support systems differ in important ways: Ukraine is backed by an integrated and technologically advanced coalition, while Russia relies on more limited, transactional relationships. Additionally, Russia's broader support network is itself coming under pressure, as recent developments in Iran and Venezuela illustrate a weakening or reorientation of Moscow's key partners. To make matters worse for Russia, the Kremlin is steadily losing geopolitical influence across many regions of the globe. These dynamics suggest that time is more likely to disadvantage Russia than Ukraine. Premature negotiations would interrupt this trajectory and risk converting Russia's self-inflicted strategic erosion into a political outcome it could not achieve militarily. The West should therefore pursue strategic patience by sustaining support for Ukraine, maintain pressure on Russia and its partners, and avoid forcing a settlement that rewards aggression.

On the battlefield, Russia's approach has relied on sustained pressure through manpower and firepower, but this has failed to produce meaningful strategic breakthroughs. Russia continues to fight inefficiently, losing many men while capturing little territory. According to a report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Russia is advancing at an average rate of 15–70 meters per day. Since 2024, only 1.5 percent of Ukraine has been captured, showing that Russia is not translating effort into meaningful strategic gains. In addition, Russia's offensive comes at historically unprecedented human costs, with nearly 1.2 million casualties, indicating a strategy of exhaustion rather than success. Ukraine's casualties are estimated at 500,000 to 600,000 total, exhibiting a roughly 2:1 ratio of Russian to Ukrainian casualties between February 2022 and December 2025.[10]

To make matters worse for the Russian military, the rate at which it can replace casualties has now declined significantly. As Michael Kofman notes, between 2022 and 2024 the Russian military was able to absorb high casualty rates while still expanding its overall force structure. Recruitment was sufficiently robust that roughly 30 percent of new personnel could be used to form new units, allowing the force to grow from approximately 900,000 before the invasion to around 1.3 million by 2025. Thereafter, however, most recruits, coming in at about 35,000 per month, were required simply to replace battlefield losses. These trends suggest that Russia's ability to sustain both force generation and offensive operations at current levels is increasingly constrained.[11] Therefore, core objectives of the Kremlin such as capturing the entirety of Donetsk seem unachievable militarily as they would require a prolonged and resource-intensive campaign. This may explain Moscow's interest in securing this area through negotiations rather than relying solely on continued offensive operations…"

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Armand

Pass off wishful thinking as reality, and the flow of money into your pocket will never dry up)))
Tango is just pseudo-analysis designed to make Westerners more willing to part with their money, which they are forced to use to maintain the power of the left-wing globalists. The fall of Zelensky's regime will mean the fall of the globalists' power – they have staked everything on this project, and they will collapse along with it.
And Russians know how to be patient…

By the way, why is there a photo of this idiot here?)))

About the "idiot"…

Police officers detain the political strategist Dmitry Kisiyev during a picket held to protest against an expected new legislation, that is set to impose restrictions on internet searches, near the headquarters of the lower house of Russia's parliament, State Duma, in Moscow, Russia

I understand that the concept doesn't exist in Russia… but it illustrates a citizen who decides to protest against their government for some reason… something very natural and commonplace in the free world, but it seems to provoke insults or arrest (who knows what tragic end) for the citizen in question in Nazi Russia.

It's not so bad… you get used to it… and sometimes what they're saying is true.

By the way…do you really think governments are swayed by these kinds of articles? That they decide where to invest or support a government based on what's written in the press? That's already been decided long before. They can only change their course through votes or… as we mentioned before… through significant street protests against them.

Armand

He's an idiot only because the form of protest he's chosen has no real meaning. Although, I think he did it simply to build his reputation in the West, where he can receive some preferential treatment for his "heroic act" (creating the appropriate "image" for Western media).)))
And this idiot is telling the truth. And most Russians share his point of view. But his stunt won't elicit any sympathy from anyone, because what he's doing is pointless. It's just window dressing for the West.

You're forgetting that Russia is at war, and therefore many civil rights have been curtailed. In Ukraine, for example, presidential elections were canceled under this pretext.))) And the entire Ukrainian opposition has long been hiding from Ukrainian lawlessness abroad (there are individuals like Shariy, Arestovich, and others who have been declared criminals in both Ukraine and Russia). By the way, the Ukrainian secret services tried to assassinate Shariy, and he's now trying to secure a fair investigation in a Spanish court… But no one is talking about this in the West)))

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Governments, or rather the people whose interests they represent, are very interested in such articles. Because they shape public opinion.

It's about money. Tell me, do you think this war and its continuation are profitable for arms manufacturers? Is it profitable for the politicians who have made this war the basis of their careers? Do you see how this war is affecting the redistribution of global markets?
You're a very, very naive lawyer)))

Reports are the Russian recent offensive ops gained little to nothing … again. Ukraine is stalemating Russia/Putin. Ukraine's very effective use of the newest lethal weapon on the battlefield – the drone … Is changing the face of modern warfare. Plus Ukraine is demonstrating how very effective this new weapon of war is.

Russia can do little in reality … but continue to lose troops and equipment.

"…I think he did it simply to build his reputation in the West, where he can receive some preferential treatment for his "heroic act" (creating the appropriate "image" for Western media).)))…"

What courage!… He surely knew what awaited him, so I don't think he did it because he might eventually receive some kind of recognition in the free world… what good would that do him in prison?… better or worse treatment?

"And this idiot is telling the truth. And most Russians share his point of view. But his stunt won't elicit any sympathy from anyone, because what he's doing is pointless. It's just window dressing for the West…"

He might have the greatest sympathy and support from many citizens… but the fear of ending up like him would be much stronger than democratic convictions… which is what usually happens in a tyranny or theocracy.

Yes… Russia is at war (actually not yet… it's still a Special Military Operation, not a war)… but it was started by you invading a sovereign country… everything Ukraine does to defend its freedom is justified, as so many countries have done before, including Russia.

"It's about money…"

It's not what Putin says in his speeches…nor what is published in the press.

" Is it profitable for the politicians who have made this war the basis of their careers? …

Given the rampant corruption in Russia, I don't think a war is needed to advance anyone's political career except that of its leader, Putin… Russian politicians in important positions are handpicked by the leader of the moment.

Armand

What prison? He received a fine of 20,000 rubles (less than $300 USD))))

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Tango, Russia looks completely different from what you imagine)))

Missiles hit military plant deep inside Russia

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Armand

Car bomb kills senior Russian military official near Moscow

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Armand

What surprises me about the weakling Putin is that he doesn't carry out any retaliatory sabotage operations in Ukraine or Europe… A weakling and a wimp…

Well regardless Putin's back is to the wall. However, he will never stop fighting. So … like with Iran … Ukraine should keep attacking Russia. And the US can continue to strike Iran.

Neither of those nations can be trusted … period …

A Major Ukrainian Army Reform

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Armand

'I Warn You – Don't Provoke Russia': Jeffrey Sachs ROARS At EU & US In European Parliamen

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Russia's staggering losses push Ukraine war casualties past 2 million

"Russia has suffered as many as 450,000 deaths and 1.4 million total casualties since launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the highest battlefield death toll suffered by any major power since World War II, according to a new analysis. Overall, there have been more than 2 million casualties on both sides since Russia's February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the Center for Strategic and International Studies, or CSIS, said in a report released Wednesday. "The number of Russian casualties and fatalities are astonishing," the report said. "Since World War II, no major power has suffered anywhere near these numbers of casualties or fatalities in any war, leaving Russia with a grim and unparalleled recent historical record." From a historical perspective, the United States would have to fight the Vietnam War roughly eight times to match Russia's battlefield death tally in Ukraine…"

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Armand

Another information offensive?)))
To understand the real casualty ratio, we need to compare the number of prisoners on both sides and the number of bodies exchanged. All this figuring out of thin air is simply part of the information war.
It doesn't matter…

The War Came Home to the Urals

" February 2022, Vladimir Putin explained why Russia had no choice but to invade Ukraine. Left unchecked, he warned, NATO would plant strike systems on Ukrainian soil capable of reaching deep into Russia — to Volgograd, Kazan, Samara, Astrakhan, and even beyond the Ural Mountains. The war, in his telling, was a preemptive act of self-defense for the Russian heartland.

On June 20, 2026, a Ukrainian drone hit an oil refinery in Tyumen — in western Siberia, beyond the Urals, nearly 1,900 kilometers from the Ukrainian border. No NATO basing was required. Just Ukrainian drones, Ukrainian engineers, and the four years Putin spent insisting this could never happen. It was the farthest strike of the war, confirmed that evening by President Volodymyr Zelensky himself. Russian state media handled the burning of a Siberian refinery with characteristic poise: the governor of Tyumen Oblast first declared a "drone threat," then announced the attack had been "repelled," then conceded that debris had fallen on the plant grounds. The fire, photographed by residents, declined to follow the official script.

This is the irony sitting at the center of Russia's fifth year of war. Putin launched the war to keep danger away from Russia. Four years later, the danger is arriving in places Russians once considered untouchable…"

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Armand

Putin is either stupid or cowardly. He's only fighting against Ukraine, even though everyone knows perfectly well where Ukraine's military production facilities are located. First and foremost, we need to attack the enemy's industrial base…
Will the war become a global one after that? So what? Why should we, and not the West, be thinking about this?

Caprum,

I would be interested in your views on how you think that the military situation would go if Russia attacked the European industrial base. To simplify things, let's assume that both sides refrain from using Nuclear, Bacteriological and Chemical weapons. Let's also assume that the US does not overtly get involved and that no US bases are attacked.
I know that the political situation can't be completely detached from the analysis, but my question is focused on the military side of things.

Given what its army is showing… Russia is not in a position to attack Luxembourg…

Armand

Martin K., a war with NATO using conventional weapons is impossible. No one is even considering it seriously. Ukrainian factories in Europe are legitimate military targets (by law, any military assets on the territory of a neutral country must be interned until the end of hostilities) and will be attacked with conventional missiles. But if NATO enters the war on Ukraine's side, the war will quickly turn nuclear, since NATO is a nuclear military bloc. There are no other options. Russia is much weaker economically and militarily than the combined forces of the West, and therefore will use all available means to convince the enemy to come to its senses. Russia will likely perish, but the Western countries will also suffer such damage that they will simply degenerate and disappear under the pressure of the problems that arise…

Tango:
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Caprum,
If I understand you correctly you are saying that Russia should attack Ukrainian factories operating in Europe. You are not advocating that Russia should attack European factories supplying Ukraine (at least not overtly).

Also I am inferring that the aim is to not get Europe to enter the war.

It seems that there is some risk in this strategy as if the country hosting the Ukrainian factory feels that Russia is attacking them and does not see the distinction about attacking only Ukrainian assets, they could invoke Article 5, things could quickly devolve into a nuclear conflict.

Maybe it depends how it is done. One or two initial attacks, then wait, then a few more, could potentially be like boiling a frog. But it would be very risky, especially if the factories were in somewhere like Poland.
Maybe the risk is why overt attacks have not been carried out.

Thanks for your comments, they were interesting

Operation Never Call Retreat

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Armand

Interfax-Ukraine

Valeriy Zaluzhny, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Ukraine to the United Kingdom, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (2021 – 2024)

"Russia's defeat or fantasies before the catastrophe"

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As I have read there… catastrophe is going for both parts… he never said that Russia is winning the war

Armand

So far the USA and China are winning))) The remaining parties to the conflict are clearly losing…

Ukraine pushes new approach to end Russia war ahead of Trump-Zelensky meeting

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Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 7, 2026

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Trump grants Ukraine license to build US Patriot missiles at NATO Summit amid Russian strikes

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Armand

The news about the licenses being granted was especially funny))) It's impossible to imagine a greater mockery of Zelensky)))

The Invisible Munition Winning the War in Ukraine: Live Data

"…Every time a Russian soldier posts a boastful video on TikTok, or a Ukrainian civilian logs onto Telegram to report a passing fuel convoy, a tactical sensor is born. When commercial satellite constellations sweep the globe every few hours, capturing high-resolution Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery that cuts through dense cloud cover and European winter darkness, the traditional concept of military camouflage vanishes. Even the silent hum of global cellular networks—the invisible clusters of GSM pings from mobile phones huddled in a rural forest—now betray the location of hidden field headquarters.

The boundary between civilian information and military utility has effectively evaporated. In the modern theater of war, open-source data is just as operationally lethal as a multi-million-dollar intelligence satellite. The implications for NATO's forward-deployed forces in the Baltics or Poland are stark: it is difficult to hide, and you cannot assume operational security just because your camouflage nets are up.

But flooding a command center with data is useless if you drown in it. In fact, raw data can be a pathology, paralyzing commanders with information overload. The true, decisive innovation achieved by Ukraine is not the mere collection of information, but the ability to ingest, fuse, and act on this firehose of unstructured information at machine speed.

They have turned a potential vulnerability into a stark decision advantage, transforming a chaotic deluge of digital noise into an asymmetric weapon. Elon Musk, among other luminaries, have warned that AI poses an even greater risk than nuclear weapons…"

Armand

To strike any targets outside of Ukraine into NATO territory could certainly be an escalation and widen the war.

However, Putin may know that many in NATO have downsized their militaries severely in many nations. Is NATO combat ready to get involved against Iran?

I'm saying No … And again Putin may know this … most likely.

Ukraine targets another 11 Russian ships in Sea of Azov

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Ukraine's Logistics Targeting Raises Questions for Russia's Rear Defences

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Armand

I don't think that the decision by European nations not to get involved in Iran has any bearing on the possibility of European members of NATO not answering an Article 5 request should a NATO country be attacked. I have no doubt that the European NATO members would respond.
Indeed, if you are suggesting that their current size is a limitation, arguably limiting out-of-region deployments allows greater concentration on in-region threats.

I believe that is correct Martyn …

Many NATO members have much more at stake than the USA …

Regardless, Putin is going to try to wait the US out. No matter who is in the WH. He is painted into a corner of his own making. He does not care how many die on all sides. Just so he survives …

It would be nice if he had an accident …

As with Russian government, not everything in the Ukrainian government is tea and crumpets.

Subject: Zelenskyy's Dismissal Of Defense Minister Fedorov Sparks Protests


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This is the job of Cuprum 2 my friend… not yours… (smile)

Armand

Russian troops survive just 20-30 minutes on Ukraine's front lines, CIA director says

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Armand

Russia KNOCKED OUT Ukraine From Kostiantynivka:

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Ukraine just FIRED its commander-in-chief (scapegoat?)

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Russia Promised 50 New Tu-160M Bombers In 2015. Ten Years Later It Has Delivered Two, And Its Whole Fleet Is 15

"Rebuilding the Tu-160 line meant recovering things Russia had lost. Tupolev digitized design documentation that existed on paper, restored the vacuum welding needed for the bomber's titanium center section, and assembled a supplier network to replace one that dispersed when the Soviet Union collapsed. The ambition in 2015 was fifty aircraft. The contract signed in 2018 covered ten. The first newly assembled bomber flew in January 2022, two were delivered in 2025 without disclosed tail numbers or production histories, and the Federation of American Scientists puts the whole active fleet at fifteen. No firm schedule exists for completing the contract…"

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Armand

North Korea May Be Deploying Ballistic Missiles To Russia…

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Armand

How North Korean forces are bolstering Russia's war against Ukraine

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Armand