"Russia’s Grinding War in Ukraine" Topic

Russia's Grinding War in Ukraine
Massive Losses and Tiny Gains for a Declining Power

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Note that this was written in January. Since then, Ukraine has gone on a limited offensive, and Russia has not been able to stop them.

It seems Ukraine now has an edge in the tactical drone war, and continues to pound Russian military infrastructure with its strategic drone war.

Thank you Chief, puts a smile on the face!

It's a shame that our friend Cuprum has been excluded from posting by his beloved leader…

Russian TV aired children singing about the "benefits" of living without the internet, echoing a familiar line of Kremlin propaganda. The message promotes a life without foreign information and technology by endorsing "seeing the sky without the blue light of a screen."

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Armand

The Russians tried to turn off the internet, but it sporadically returns, some videos have come out.

Why Putin Believes He Can Win His ‘Civilizational War' Against The West

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Russia's Air Force ‘Has No Future': 30,000 Sorties Over Ukraine And It Still Can't Win

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Armand

My apologies if the next text is not acceptable (;-)).
In 2028 the Russian scientists succeed in building a timemachine which can both backwards and forwards. Of course Vladimir Putin decides to use it and go to 2058. When he leaves the laboratory in the center of Moscow he notices the people walking around in good looking clothes and on the road soundless cars because they are all electric. A bit further he notices a cafe and enters this. He takes a seat and asks the bartender for a cup of coffee. Then he tells him "I was away for a very long time and I wonder whether Ukraine is now part of us." "Of course", the bartender answers, "for many years already". "And Georgia ?" Putin asks. "Sure", the bartender answers. "And Poland ?" Putin hardly dares to put this question on the table. "Poland also" the bartender answers, "You must have been a very long time away to not know that!". Putin sighs very satisfied and asks to pay for his coffee. "OK", the barkeeper answers, "One coffee ? That is four euro fifty !"

Putin wants the war in Iran to continue. It takes some assets away from Ukraine. Plus the media has something else to talk about than just Putin's War/Russian aggression …

Why Putin Believes He Can Win His ‘Civilizational War' Against The West

Sure he has to sell that … As the title of this say states. With the massive losses of men and material with little gains to show for it. In a war that is in its 4th year.

He and his cronies have to push the narrative of the Motherland is defeating the Nazis in Ukraine and stop NATO from expanding in the East. Both Sweden and Finland joined NATO because of Putin's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. So yeah NATO expanded East because those two nations know they can't trust Putin and the Russians … Nice going Vlad … really showing how to think things through … Fromer KG What ?!?

Russia's Air Force ‘Has No Future': 30,000 Sorties Over Ukraine And It Still Can't Win

Take Aways: The Russian AF is not the US or IDF Air Forces. And Ukraine is not Iran.

With lessons learned one must know what to gleam from those. You could learn the wrong lesson … Or none at all …

Tango, I'm with you – don't worry))) I'm just busy with personal matters right now and I don't have time to discuss virtual Ukrainian victories online)))

Porthos, that's a good joke, especially considering how Putin dreamed of a united Europe from Lisbon to Vladivostok. So his dreams came true))) The guy knows how to get what he wants.

Legion 4, the war has been going on for five years… It's not scary – we fought for the Baltics for fourteen years)))
Tehran in three days?)))

RUSSIA'S IRREGULAR MARITIME STATECRAFT IN THE BALTIC SEA

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Armand

Empty accusations again))) Where is the evidence? All the detained ships have been released. Not a single captain has been brought to trial. Not a single vessel has been confiscated… NATO pirates are simply obstructing shipping, violating maritime law.
Tango, you're a lawyer, right? Where in maritime law is the term "shadow fleet" defined? Who has the right to determine whether a vessel is part of a "shadow fleet" and on what basis? These questions remain unanswered… It's just a convenient term to cover up arbitrary actions and piracy…
What are "sanctions" without a UN resolution? It's just a trade war between some countries against others, which has nothing to do with the law.

Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the Russian shadow fleet smuggling Russian oil for export has drawn renewed attention. This has led to growing concerns about the geopolitical impacts of such fleets, their significance with regards to sanctions' enforcement and efficacy, and the safety and security risks they create. Indeed, as 'dark' vessels use deceptive practices and often constitute ageing vessels, they "present a serious threat to maritime security, safety and the marine environment"… The International Maritime Organization signaled its desire to create new enforcement mechanisms against grey ships, signing a resolution in October 2023 that defined for the first time the term 'dark' ship. It noted that a fleet of between 300 and 600 tankers primarily comprised of older ships, including some not inspected recently, having substandard maintenance, unclear ownership and a severe lack of insurance, was currently operated as a 'dark fleet' or 'shadow fleet' to circumvent sanctions and high insurance costs…Those practices may exploit legal flaws in the International Maritime Organization (IMO) registration and transmission requirements, insurance loopholes, and the lack of cooperation between geopolitical adversaries…Automatic identification system or AIS is an IMO-mandated transponder aboard all registered vessels which transmits the identity and location of ships. This is publicly accessible data. The technology allows data-tracking for ships on the high seas, and underpins the system as both a "regulatory weapon and compliance shield…Ship-to-ship cargo transfers refer to the use of intermediary vessels to bring goods to shore. This allows shadow fleets to stay on the high seas, avoid detection and seizure by coastal authorities, and smuggle their cargo …These vessels frequently use AIS (Automatic Identification System) spoofing and "go dark" to conceal their location, which is forbidden except for safety reasons….In December 2023, the IMO defined the "dark fleet" as ships avoiding regulations, which helps unify legal action against them, as noted in this European Parliament report.

Armand

Please note that we are talking about "coastal waters" here. There is no "shadow fleet" on the high seas))) The seizure of a ship in international waters is ordinary piracy.

The condition of the vessels is a matter for their owners, not their charterers. The charterer has the right to insure the vessel where they see fit, not someone else.

Again, not a single detained vessel was arrested, there were no trials or confiscations… There were no proven criminal acts. Nothing. Empty and unsubstantiated accusations. Simply an obstruction of navigation.

Russia has now decided to have armed security teams on chartered ships and to open fire on any pirates attempting to hijack the vessel.

"Russia has now decided to have armed security teams on chartered ships and to open fire on any pirates attempting to hijack the vessel…"

I guess you are talking about Russian Vessels under Russian Flag… if not, Unless we're talking about a Russian private security company hired by the flag carrier… and if that were the case, I don't think they'd fare well at all if they were boarded by trained military personnel…

Armand

Hasn't the Iran war included attacks on drone manufacturing? I thought Iran supplied some of the drones Russia uses. No idea if the whole thing is a net loss for Russia. It's definitely a net loss for me.

Iran not only provides thousands of drones to the Russians but also taught them the technology to manufacture them, which the Russians now do in much greater quantities than the Iranians do on their own territory.

Armand

Andy ONeill, Iran supplied Russia with drone production technology, helped establish production in Russia, and provided some initial quantities. Now, Russia has created a massive production complex in Yelabuga for the design and production of drones for various purposes.
Here's an article about this production facility. Although it's chock-full of Ukrainian propaganda nonsense, it gives a general idea of ​​the facility:

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Currently, the Yelabuga plant produces five varieties of Geranium drones, which have already advanced significantly from their ancestors, the Iranian Shahed drones.

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I wouldn't be surprised if the Iranians have now received Russian technology to improve their drones. Russian drones use artificial intelligence, carry anti-aircraft missiles, and are capable of independently finding and attacking air defense systems…

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History repeats itself…

Nazis = Russia

Italy = Iran

Japan = North Korea

Of course, the current ones are more pathetic than their predecessors, but just as bad.

Armand

How the Seven Years' War Can Help Us Understand Today's Conflicts

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Armand

'BUCHA' (2026) Official Trailer | True Story War Drama | Now on Apple TV & Prime Video

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Armand

Ukrainian fantasy?)))

No… the usual and well-known barbarity of the Russian Army that dwarfs any other comparison in these modern times.

Armand

Only in the minds of mentally ill people)))

Legion 4, the war has been going on for five years… It's not scary – we fought for the Baltics for fourteen years)))

Yeah … is that a good thing ?

Tehran in three days?)))

Who said anything about 3 days? Oh wait wasn't that Putin, about Ukraine ?

It has been 30 days with Iran's islamists and their assets dwindling daily …

Hasn't the Iran war included attacks on drone manufacturing?

Their military manufacturing including drones and missiles has taken many hits. Both their supply and production capabilities are heavily degraded. But there is more work to be done. To be effective both their personal and assets of all kinds have to be destroyed … Which is ongoing …

Curious descriptive adjective indeed… lately it seems that those who oppose the war in Ukraine in Russia (and have some or a lot of fame) like certain commentators, writers, or journalists, are no longer falling out of windows… they're being sent to a psychiatric institute for their recovery… I have no doubt that if I ever decide to invest in making the bloodiest and most shocking horror film I would choise Russia… we don't even need actors for it.

Armand

Propaganda ? Maybe not …

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A scandal erupted here a couple of days ago when an unprecedented act of corruption was uncovered: the proven payment of thousands of dollars to TV journalists, YouTubers, influencers, etc., by the Russians to distort international and local news in their favor.

This criminal act was orchestrated and paid for by the Kremlin and aided by the governments of Bolivia (the previous one), Venezuela, and Cuba.

Another shameful and criminal act by our beloved Soviets.

Armand

A tale of Tanks & drones on the Eastern Front. Very much worth a look.

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Tango01, is there any irrefutable evidence to support this scandal? I don't think so… It's most likely an inside tip from some unknown individual, backed up by the empty rantings of yet another yellow-press windbag.

The evidence was presented in court… we have to wait for the outcome through a ruling… now then… can anyone in their right mind doubt that journalists are paid to provide false information from one side or the other? It all depends on how clumsily they do it or if someone betrays them to save their own skin…

Armand

Well then, let's wait for the trial before we call someone a criminal. It wasn't long ago that all the free media were calling Trump a Russian spy—remember? A free press has long been free from objectivity and honesty.

They didn't call him a Russian spy. The accusation was he colluded with the Russians to help win the election.

The previous POTUS, VP and their Party did much more to help the current POTUS and VP to win the election.

Grattan 54, probably… I haven't been following the ups and downs of the US election campaign very closely.

I'm 1km from the frontline and Russians are unleashing hell

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No… Russian do not attack civilians… what a bunch of…

Armand

War in the Ukraine? Can't be. No media coverage. New?

Tango01 +1

Orbán's Fall in Hungary Opens a Door for Europe — and Closes One for Russia

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"…"Most Hungarian voters when they're asked, they say we don't want to be part of Russia, we want to be part of Europe," he said. "And so this is a very major lesson for far right…"

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Armand

Cameroon 'military contractors' killed in Russia-Ukraine war – BBC confirms leaked message

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From brutal occupation to brazen recruitment: Russia turns Bucha residents against their own

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Armand

Tango, SB, Legion

Remember when this was the worst war ever?

All the European's and many from the U.S. telling us Putin was going to drive his panzers through Europe next?

The world had to stop this at all costs.

All it took was the "Evil one" to attack Radical Fundamentalist Islamic Iran, a country run by a messianic death cult. A country that has attacked us and other countries since 79 and supported terrorism worldwide. A country that actually deserved to be attacked for a long, long time. Unlike the Ukraine.

Because the "Evil One" is involved… Putin and the Ukraine are forgotten by all but a few.

Again, this is why we call it TDS or more to the point, TDA.

How is that war between Afghanistan and Pakistan going? Islamic attacks on Nigeria? Planet still warming? Genocide of the Palestinians? Illegals still being rounded up? Sudan Famine Ended? Myanmar Conflict? Protests in Ireland? 😏

It's up to each individual to decide whether to study, learn about, and share a wide range of military topics or focus on just one that interests them most… exactly like any other study one undertakes in life, it's a matter of expanding your knowledge base or limiting it to fewer neurons. Of course, it's always much easier to focus on a single current event than to try to understand what happened and why in the rest of the world.

Armand

U.S. and NATO Need To Learn From Ukraine

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Armand

OVI +1 again …

Russia's war for demographic control

"What is unfolding in the occupied territories of Ukraine – in Mariupol above all, but also across swathes of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts – is the deliberate erasure of a Ukrainian population and its substitution with a Russian one.

There is historical precedent for the behaviour of the Russian authorities. After the Second World War, Soviet authorities prevented the largely Estonian population of Narva from returning to their city following wartime evacuation, and systematically resettled Russian workers there instead. A city that was 65 per cent ethnic Estonian in 1934 became around 97 per cent Russian-speaking by the late Soviet period, a demographic transformation that outlasted the USSR and continues to shape Estonian security calculations today. What Russia is doing in Mariupol, in occupied Ukraine, follows the same logic: the deliberate remaking of a city's population as an instrument of political control, conducted with the confidence that the world will eventually accommodate the result.

Before the full-scale invasion, Mariupol was home to approximately 450,000 people, a majority-Ukrainian city that had undergone a significant cultural and civic revival following 2014. The siege of 2022, conducted over a brutal 86 days, devastated the city. Human Rights Watch documented at least 8,034 excess deaths in the first year alone, a figure the organisation considers a significant undercount; Ukrainian official estimates reached 22,000 by mid-2022. Hundreds of thousands fled. The mayor's office recorded that at least 33,000 residents were deported to Russia or separatist-controlled territory by April 2022; Petro Andriushchenko, then adviser to the exiled mayor, documented a further 27,000 held simultaneously in Russian filtration camps in Donetsk Oblast, where they were subjected to biometric registration, interrogation, document confiscation and, in many cases, deportation to distant regions of Russia. By May 2023, around 120,000 pre-war residents remained in the city. The figure today stands at approximately 100,000.

The demographic structure of that residual population is itself revealing. Of the 100,000 who remain, around 70,000, or 70 per cent, are pensioners aged over 60. Working-age adults number just 13,000. Children aged 17 and under account for only 17,000. This is not a population in recovery. The age pyramid is inverted, and the situation is unlikely to improve.

According to figures provided by the Centre for the Study of Occupation, based in Dnipro, among those who were living in Mariupol before the invasion and remain under occupation, approximately 600 people die each month. Against this backdrop, roughly 90 births occur, a rate itself declining at around ten per cent every two years, yielding a net loss to natural causes alone of some 510 people per month. The contrast with government-controlled Ukrainian territory is stark: even accounting for violent deaths, the death-to-birth ratio there in 2025 was approximately 3:1. Birth rates are among the most reliable indicators of a population's confidence in its own future. The people of Mariupol who lived through the siege and remain are not having children.

At the same time, working-age adults from among the pre-war population are leaving at roughly 200 per month. Mariupol under occupation is a surveillance state in miniature: movement is monitored, the Ukrainian language has been suppressed, civic institutions have been dissolved, and those with known connections to the Ukrainian military or civil society face the risk of detention. There is no compensatory inflow. It is a place most Ukrainians leave when they can.

At a combined rate of approximately 710 pre-war residents lost per month, through death, departure, and the collapse of birth rates, their number will fall below 5,000 within 12 years, even setting aside the compounding effects of population ageing and violent death. Within half a generation, Russia will have effectively erased the population of a city of 450,000.

The other side of this process is the importation of a replacement population. According to data provided by the Centre for the Study of Occupation on settler inflows, the number of Russian citizens in Mariupol increased by at least 80,000 between 2023 and 2025, at a current rate of approximately 2,200 per month. On these projections, Russians will numerically outnumber those who called Mariupol home before the invasion by the end of this year; within three years, by more than two to one; within a decade, the replacement will be near-total.

This migration is not spontaneous. Russia has constructed a federal infrastructure for demographic resettlement. The ‘Zemsky' programmes, covering teachers, doctors, cultural workers and sports coaches, offer working-age Russian citizens financial packages, housing assistance and preferential mortgages at two per cent interest to relocate to what the Kremlin describes as its ‘new regions'. In 2026 alone, 1.18 billion roubles were allocated for teacher relocation, and the cultural workers programme received 2.5 billion. Meanwhile, the doctors programme was provided with six billion roubles in 2024. These are federal budget lines administered through occupation ministries.

The settlers arriving under these schemes are overwhelmingly working-age adults moving with families: such as a teacher from Tatarstan who relocated to occupied Donetsk with her husband and four children; a couple from Khabarovsk, who both took school positions in occupied Luhansk, bringing their four children; a choreographer from Siberia, who purchased an apartment in Luhansk with her relocation payment; a sound engineer from Irkutsk, who describes occupied Sievierodonetsk as professionally enriching. Each represents not merely one additional Russian resident, but a family unit that will raise its children as Russian citizens on Ukrainian soil.

None of this is improvised. In August 2023, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assessed that Ukrainian partisans had obtained a Russian occupation planning document setting out a ten-year programme for Mariupol: explicit repopulation targets, the systematic removal of ethnic Ukrainians, and preferential incentives for Russian settlers. ISW concluded that Russia's conduct ‘likely amounts to a deliberate ethnic cleansing campaign in addition to being apparent violations of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide'. The plan is on schedule.

Mariupol is an advanced case, not an anomaly. Recent monitoring confirms equivalent patterns of population decline among pre-war residents and organised Russian resettlement across all four occupied oblasts. In Kherson, administrators imported from across Russia have assumed control at almost every level of governance; several are now subject to international sanctions for their roles in deporting Ukrainian children and dismantling Ukrainian education. The approach follows a recognisable Soviet template: mass importation of settlers to dilute, displace and ultimately supersede a pre-existing population, underwritten by the conviction that the land and its development belong by civilisational right to Russia.

The de-Ukrainianisation of Mariupol is not a by-product of military necessity. The deportation and filtration of civilians, the suppression of Ukrainian language and identity, the federal funding of settler migration, the ten-year demographic plan: these constitute, in aggregate, a systematic and state-directed campaign to displace a population from its territory and replace it with another. ISW has applied the term ethnic cleansing without equivocation. The Genocide Convention and the Rome Statute both provide further frameworks; whether courts ultimately reach a determination under those instruments is a matter for legal proceedings and political will. What is not in serious analytical dispute is the character of what is occurring.

Any settlement, as unlikely as it may seem right now, would not stop the inflow of Russian settlers; it would encourage it, as stabilised conditions lower the risks involved with relocation. If the past provides any guide, it suggests that demographic transformation does not pause when the guns fall silent. Rather, facts on the ground can be presented as a fait accompli that any subsequent political settlement will be obliged to accommodate. What Russia is acquiring, above all, is time.

The question of what a Russified Mariupol ultimately becomes is worth asking. History offers one answer: a demographically transformed city, frozen in place, its origins gradually obscured and its new reality treated as simply the way things are. But there are darker possibilities. It could become a military launchpad, much like the one that Russia made of Crimea after 2014, using the peninsula to stage the very invasion that destroyed Mariupol itself. It could, in the event of Ukrainian military reconquest, become a spoiler region within a reunited Ukraine, a concentration of settlers with Russian citizenship and pro-Russian political loyalties engineered to destabilise any future settlement from within. Or it could simply be absorbed into Russia and forgotten, the violence and the ethnic cleansing buried for good. One thing is clear: Russia will not return Mariupol at the negotiating table willingly.

None of these futures is palatable. All of them were chosen, both by Russia's actions and by everyone else's inaction."

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Armand

Tango +1

Thanks my friend… sad people didn't take note of that …

Armand

Russia After Putin

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Armand

Russia's Gray Zone War Against NATO

"It's a battlefield so cold that even Marvel's Captain America might find himself looking around for a space heater, but that doesn't mean the fight isn't warming up.

The Kremlin has been waging an increasingly aggressive gray-zone campaign against NATO countries in or near the Arctic since approximately 2014. It's a campaign that has largely slipped under the radar. These subversive and malign operations aim to sow division in Europe, degrade NATO's intelligence and response capabilities, and generate chaos and fear. Recent actions by the United Kingdom and Norway signal that the Alliance is no longer looking the other way; however, without coordinated investment in Arctic-specific capabilities and deeper operational collaboration, NATO efforts to blunt Russian malicious activities risk falling short.

Russian naval vessels have been mapping the seabed throughout the High North and Atlantic to support efforts to target allied subsea fiber optic cables, the UK's Ministry of Defense revealed last week. Over the past month, the UK and other NATO militaries have tracked loitering vessels from Russia's Main Directorate of Deep Sea Research, a highly secretive unit within the Russian Armed Forces that reports directly to the president and defense minister. It specializes in subsea surveillance, sabotage, and reconnaissance.

Undersea sabotage is a central component of Russia's gray-zone war. The degradation, destruction, or infiltration of subsea cables and pipelines would carry severe military and economic consequences for allied nations. The UK, for example, is heavily dependent upon subsea infrastructure: over 90 percent of daily network traffic and roughly half of the gas used to heat homes flows through underwater cables and pipelines. Russian targeting of British subsea networks is not only a national concern for 10 Downing Street, but a strategic vulnerability for all of NATO. As a leading economic, military, and intelligence hub, disruption to UK critical infrastructure would reverberate across the Alliance…."

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Armand

The Decimation of Russia's Specialized Troops and its Effects on the Ukraine War

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Armand