"What If Napoleon had never invaded Russia?" Topic

I like this one…

"If he doesn't invade Russia, he should use his army against Wellington and drive him out of the peninsula. Adding Spain and Portugal to the Continental System is much more important than enforcing it in Russia and will to a lot of harm to the British economy which is already hit by strikes and the Luddite movement.

Though, there are still three mighty old style monarchies (Prussia, Austria and Russia) waiting for an opportunity to overthrow Napoléon and restoring the old order in Europe.

Even if he doesn't attack in 1812 – Napoléon will have to deal with Russia better sooner than later. As to the question HOW to win against Russia, he should have conquered Smolensk as OTL and then hibernated there rebuilding the Grand armée. A second campaign in 1813 should then bring the victory."

link

Armand

The 1812 Overture would be a lot shorter.

I would expect that both Austria and Prussia would revolt within a year or two.
Russia would invade Poland.
Napoleon is still having to Harrison the east so the number of troops available for Iberia would be limited.
Spain will still be an ulcer. North Italy and Naples would be guarding against British incursions.

in case Boney moves against Wellington, Russia would strike hard against his exposed Eastern front.

"I would expect that both Austria and Prussia would revolt within a year or two."

Napoleon always said the same thing: "I find both Prussia and Austria Revolting!"

He actually said the same about Marie-Louise of Austria. 😉

The OFM for the win!

I'd back thatfor OFM and add that Tolstoy would have written "Peace and Peace" and it would have been as exciting as Quiet Flows the Don. The alternate film by Bondarchuk I would not like to think about.

Follow the link to the discussion, which is much better than is often the case

Thanks!

Armand

Austria had already risen in 1809 and had wounds to lick. I doubt it would have been in too much of a hurry to go again. Nor Prussia, which (probably wisely considering its preparedness) declined to join in in 1809. It took the defeat of the Grand Armée to prompt them to have another go.

Cheers,
John

Good points…

Armand

What would have been Russia's incentive to invade Poland or attack any of Napoleon's domains if 1812 had never happened? I don't know the answer, just asking.

I support your question…

Armand

They had owned art of Iland since the SYW and they wanted it back

I doubt anyone would have picked a fight with Napoleon in 1812 other than Spain. He proved he could beat any two of them. Give England a year or two to work on them diplomatically and some more victories in Spain and they may be good for another go.

The Tsar wanted to try already in 1811 but he abstained seeing that neither Prussia nor Ausstria were ready to support him, Boney proved that he could not handle two fronts. So when Boney moves against the Peninsula, Russia was already posed for attack.

I would have thought Russia would want to bring its war with the Ottomans to a close before taking on Napoleon again. Sweden and Russia allied in April of 1812, but Sweden was still technically at war with the U.K. until the following summer, so no potential help there until later in the year.

Thanks also…

Armand

The way I hear about Napoleon and Marie they were a bit attracted with one and the othe.

On the invasion of Russia, the history would havd changed but suspect Prussia would have dragged the confrontation eventually. And England wasn't quitting anytime either.

Napoleon's biggest mistake was invading Spain in the first place. Massing all his forces to drive the British out would not have entirely solved the problem, but it still would have been way better then ignoring it and invading Russia. As noted above, neither Austria or Prussia could have intervened (the whole 1809 campaign was based on the idea that Napoleon would be too busy in Spain to hold off the Austrians in Germany and they saw how well that worked). It's doubtful Russia would have attacked on their own.

Once in Spain… instead of his weak brother, he could have put Murat in charge and it would have been a different story.

Armand

Did you type that with your tongue very firmly in your cheek, Armand?
Murat's only significant contribution to the war in Spain was to unite the country against the French

Until his defection, Murat didn't do so badly (militarily) in Italy… his actions during the Spanish uprising weren't his own decision; he received orders to suppress it and did so consciously… I believe that his élan and bravery, along with his qualities as a Cavalry commander, would have allowed him to act much faster than "Pepe Botella"… but that's just my opinion…

Armand

Yes the big problem of Boney, he could not hand over Spain to a person and give him full authority, no overall commander, didn't Soult dream to become roi d'Espagne, give him the title and full power and he will sort out all problems, but Boney no, he has to micromanage, intermingle, over rule, he would have to change personality, otherwise yes Murat, he received too bad press, he did not so badly in Naples, but again, Boney would be always in his way, so no luck.

No troop withdrawals from Spain – while Napoleon maintained 400,000 men in the East of Europe to deter Russian agression. There was no chance of a Prussian uprising as it was firmly under the French boots of occupation and Austria with its small tax base simply could not afford to increase the size of its army (without British subsidies) – it had difficulty mobilizing a Corps for the Russian campaign and a second corps for border defence.

As a result Wellington would likely have been kept in check by the Army of Portugal There would be no siege of Cuidad Rodrigo (no Badajoz, no Salamanca etc) because the Army of Portugal would not have had to detach 12,000 troops to assist Suchet nor later a few divisions to assist the Army of the North with anti-guerilla sweeps as Dorsenne/Caffarelli would have had enough men on their own.

Suchet would also have retained sufficient men to have allowed the capture of Valencia, and then make a move on Alicante & Cartegena.

Tango01

"If he doesn't invade Russia, he should use his army against Wellington and drive him out of the peninsula. Adding Spain and Portugal to the Continental System is much…"

Something I never fully realised until this week: Bonaparte never really intended to invade Russia. Take a step back!
He intended to bring the Tzar's army out to defend the border, threaten Russia with the largest army ever witnessed, beat him, maybe take a city (like Vilnius) and sweetly bring the Tzar to honourable terms, like getting him to join his European Union. I suspect losing half his Grande Armée before the first major battle (Smolensk), was not necessarily pencilled in on his itinerary.

Prince of Essling
"No troop withdrawals from Spain – while Napoleon maintained…. As a result Wellington would likely have been kept in check by the Army of Portugal."

Perhaps. But even before the withdrawals, both Massena and Soult were wary of Wellington. Then, it took the British just 12 days to storm Ciudad Rodrigo but even knowing that, Marmont took longer than the three weeks it took for Badajoz to fall, to get his men together for a demonstration against the Peer. Marmont also approached Salamanca under-served, with re-enforcements still on their way. Not necessarily Marmont's fault because the timing of a concentration in such starvation terrain with his communications constantly interrupted can become even more acute with more men to bring in. Dispersal is always down to the nature of the terrain.

Not saying that Wellington wouldn't have agreed with you, since he expected to have to call off both Badajoz or his run to Salamanca at any moment.

On the other hand, if the Ogre hadn't embarked on his Eastern adventure, he wouldn't have loosened the direct grip he had on his Peninsula armies which had made his Marshalls (knowing the ignominious downfalls of Dupont, Junot and Massena) so hesitant to make a mistake and divert from his necessarily out-of-date orders. Nor would he have sent Jourdan to speed up and centralise the communications that enabled the Marshalls for a time to co-ordinate.

Thanks…

It was almost always evident that when Napoleon was not in command, his other marshals were not suited to carry out conquests of that nature. Suchet is an exception to this rule. Soult made a good defense of France against Wellington. Prince Eugene could also command on his own.

Armand

Tango01

"It was almost always evident that when Napoleon was not in command, his other marshals were not suited to carry out conquests of that nature"

To be fair, the Marshalls' armies in Spain were enough to contain their designated areas, but not enough to meet a concerted effort by the Anglo-Portuguese when they could arrange guerilla diversions. The French needed to combine to do that and although they lent each other re-enforcements, Bonaparte deliberately prevented any Marshall from taking an overall leadership rôle. He also over-heavily punished failure – though failure is a learning mechanism.

So Wellington could write that "When Masséna was opposed to me in the field, I never slept comfortably". Anyone who studies the battles can see that Masséna was a top commander who was an inch away from beating Wellington at Fuentes de Onoro; Bonaparte removed him.

Marmont was another good one: his commanders thought he was indecisive. Yet he has Wellington run ragged by brilliant manoeuvring. But lack of re-enforcements from his fellow marshalls and forthright instructions by Bonaparte combined to engage him in a battle he lost, when his instincts and logic dictated he wait for back-up.

Soult is a good example of what could have happened if Bonaparte had let his brother create a hierarchy of command much earlier. Soult lost some small battles in 1813 but Bonaparte had no replacement so Soult stayed on, learnt and got better and better. But with fewer and fewer resources.

One of the great questions of military history. You could ask the same of his invasion of Spain.

It's pretty simple to me: leave Spain alone, abandon the Continental System, and do not invade Russia. Just pretend that France and Russia are still friends, but keep an army near the Polish border. Have another army ready to help your ally if Britain invades Spain.