"So does the Iranian regime finally fall THIS TIME?" Topic

Yeah -- guess that's why the Americans were unable to coordinate and resource allied efforts on multiple fronts in WW2, then create and lead the entire global political and economic order since 1945…silly Yanks, what do they know about foreign policy?

OVI +1

Stone +1

Keep in mind that while Congress has the power to Declare War, that's not the same thing as saying the President does not have the right to use military action without prior Congressional approval, when he deems it necessary for national security. Especially in today's lightning communication era.

Bingo !!! I've mentioned this before … commo moves very quickly today. To wait for Congress to do anything. The opportunity has passed, OPSEC may be violated, the target is no long in an optimum location, etc., etc. Now we may suffer more losses etc., etc. In both Venezuela and Iran, the target(s) was in the location, at the right time, etc. Like in an ambush position you may be waiting awhile. Until the enemy moves deep enough into the kill zone. Then you engage …

Again, Clinton and Obama made many drone attacks, air strikes, etc. in pretty much in total secrecy. OPSEC was not violated. And no one in Congress ed and moaned.

And with the Congress populated with the likes of Omar, Talibi, Jaypal, etc., etc. For OPSEC we can't trust many in Congress as they don't support the POTUS, etc., etc.

By the way, the bombs were dropped by Israel in both cases, not the US.

Yes it appears the IDF would primarily do the decapitation. They certain earned the right to. While the US would be striking other targets of all types. Of which there were many, with more to service … Those target numbers suffer attrition every day. With more attrition to come.

"Why do we need to know?"

In many, many cases we don't. Our enemies do not need to know tactics, techniques, locations, numbers of assets, etc., etc. And certainly, they don't need to see it in the media, from members of Congress, etc.

US intel and policy are looking fragile in real time:

Wait … after all the damage done to the islamist in Iran and elsewhere. The US in no way looks fragile. Nor does the IDF …

It's a systemic failure of threat anticipation and resource prioritisation. The result? Tehran's proxies and assets can act with a degree of freedom that U.S. planners didn't seem to foresee.

That is a lot of assumptions with not really knowing at all that was going on. I don't but with air ops, etc. I certainly have much more training and experience than you or many others here.

The planning controlling, etc. for this op was probably one of the biggest coordinated air/sea campaigns ever devised.
No one knows what the actual prioritization was but the planners, staffs, etc.

Certain things could not occur until after the strikes. To do certain actions, may give away what was coming. I.e. OPSEC is always the priority.

E.g. WWII, the Allies have broken the Germans codes. During the Blitz, they knew the Germans were planning to bomb a certain town. I forget which one. If the Brits evac'd that town before the German strikes. They could surmise their codes were violated. The Allies know what is going to happen, so they may have to change the codes, etc.

It's about capability, intent, and the strategic picture: Iran's ability to project force into the heart of the Gulf, and the American inability to inhibit or deter it so far,

Again a big assumption from someone who never planned any air ops, etc., nor was not in the room as the planning went on. I obviously wasn't there … but again I have a working understanding of how the planning, etc. goes into this type of op. Of course, at a much smaller level, etc. but some of the principles stay the same.

Frankly regardless of polls, the media, members of Congress, etc. All the retired military officers interviewed from all branches. Many with Stars on their uniforms. Some fairly well known. Had nothing but praise for this operation. As they did with the Maduro Raid.

Both amazing feats of military expertise, skills, etc. No one on the planet could do what the US Military did on these ops. No one … No brag – just fact, as my Army buddy from TX would say.

When some in Congress and the media say Iran was not an imminent threat. The fact they have been trying to get deployable nukes for decades. Along with that they are militant islamists. Anyone who believes they were not an imminent threat are delusional and/or suffering massive doses of TDA. Only proves what bias and/or ignorance they are displaying. Nukes in the hands of religious lunatics … what could possibly go wrong …

SB and Legion as usual +1

Maybe this will help. I had read this from multiple sources. An anonymous Arab, who said he was in negotiations denied this. But I rarely believe "anonymous"Arabs.

"President Donald Trump's special envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, said Monday on Fox News that Iranian negotiators bragged to him that Iran had enough enriched uranium to make nearly a dozen nuclear bombs.

The account fits a key piece of the administration's evolving rationale for joining with Israel to preemptively strike Iran: Trump himself has said he believes the Iranian regime was close to having nuclear weapons, as well as missiles capable of carrying them to the United States.

"In that first meeting, both the Iranian negotiators said to us directly, with no shame, that they controlled 460 kilograms of 60%," Witkoff said in the Fox interview, referring to the uranium's level of enrichment. "And they're aware that that could make 11 nuclear bombs, and that was the beginning of their negotiating stance."

"They were proud of it," Witkoff added. "They were proud that they had evaded all sorts of oversight protocols to get to a place where they could deliver 11 nuclear bombs.""

No?

Ok how about this:

"Iran has maintained significant stocks of 60% enriched uranium, with estimates suggesting they could produce enough 90% weapons-grade material for multiple nuclear bombs within a matter of days or weeks if they chose to do so. Reports indicate that Iran's "breakout time" has decreased significantly, allowing for rapid enrichment.
Iran Watch
Iran Watch
+2

Stockpile Capabilities: As of mid-2023, Iran possessed over 114 kg of 60% enriched uranium, with some reports indicating potential enrichment levels reaching up to 83.7% or 84%.

Weaponization Time: Analysts have stated that Iran could use its 60% stocks to produce enough 90% enriched uranium (weapons-grade) for one nuclear weapon in as few as 12 days.

Advanced Centrifuges: Iran has continued to use advanced, fast-enriching centrifuges, shortening the time needed to reach weapons-grade levels.

Negotiation Context: Despite ongoing negotiations, Iran has continued to increase its uranium enrichment levels and stockpile, leading to international concerns about its "breakout" capability.

Previous Limitations: Before 2015, Iran's stockpile was much larger, but the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) aimed to reduce this to limit breakout capability."

They have long range missiles that can currently hit Northern Europe, and I'm sure NK would sell them better.

But nukes or not, Iran has done enough just to us, to deserve this for a long long time.

Latest headlines Iran International

"The United States Central Command released an update on Operation Epic Fury on Tuesday, reporting that nearly 2,000 targets have been hit, 17 Iranian naval vessels – including the country's most operational submarine – have been destroyed, and US forces have deployed one-way drones against Iran's military infrastructure.

Iran's Assembly of Experts elected Ali Khamenei's son Mojtaba as the next Supreme Leader under pressure from the Revolutionary Guards, informed sources told Iran International.

President Trump said on Tuesday he had ordered the‌ US Development Finance Corporation to provide political risk insurance and guarantees for maritime trade traveling through the Persian Gulf. He said the US Navy would also escort tankers if needed.

The body of slain Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei will be buried in the city of Mashhad in northeastern Iran following a funeral, the IRGC-affiliated Fars News reported.

Iranian media said US and Israeli strikes hit the Assembly of Experts in Qom and Tehran, with reports that a session to choose the next supreme leader was targeted."

Again all please send your condolences to Mojtaba future widows. 😔

"another example of how well thought out this "special military operation" is."

What seems under-examined so far is less the strike capability of the United States and more the second- and third-order effects of this (can I say?) war.

The operation appears to assume escalation can be tightly managed, yet recent drone and missile activity suggests Iran retains significant freedom to act asymmetrically across the region, including against diplomatic and economic nodes outside the immediate battlespace.

There's also ambiguity about the end state. Degrading capabilities is not the same as shaping behaviour and without clear criteria for success or exit, pressure risks drifting into open-ended escalation.

Compounding this is the messaging problem. Statements from Donald Trump, Pete Hegseth, and others, have been vague, shifting, and at times contradictory — oscillating between claims of limited, decisive action and hints of broader objectives. That kind of ambiguity may be useful tactically, but strategically it muddies deterrence, reassures no one and risks miscalculation by both allies and adversaries.

Finally, the scale and breadth of domestic scepticism appears to have caught planners off guard. Opposition isn't confined to predictable political camps, suggesting a consensus at home that could constrain options if the operation proves longer, broader, or costlier than initially framed. If the US casualty count grows significantly, then all bets are off as to the viability of this …war.

Finally, the timing of domestic counter-intelligence disruptions and uneven allied buy-in raises questions about whether the political, intelligence, and diplomatic groundwork has kept pace with the military timetable.

In short, the kinetic side looks planned; the wider system effects, less so.

E.g. WWII, the Allies have broken the Germans codes. During the Blitz, they knew the Germans were planning to bomb a certain town. I forget which one. If the Brits evac'd that town before the German strikes. They could surmise their codes were violated. The Allies know what is going to happen, so they may have to change the codes, etc.

I'm not sure that's 100% accurate. The book that "revealed" that had an agenda. And it was disputed.

How Iranian women are reacting:

link

So, I guess maybe some people who actually live there have different perspective than others with safe, cushy lives in the West. Maybe we should listen to them?

Legion 4 +1, by the way.

Rand Paul at least is operating on principles— principles with no real basis in actual historical precedent— but at least he's actually saying what he believes, and would take that stance no matter who was in the Oval Office or who controlled the Senate or House.

Everybody else is just trying to get cheap headlines.

As for "But he promised no ‘forever wars'!" It's been FOUR DAYS!!!! Geez Loueez y'all, GET A FRICKIN' GRIP!!!

As it is, we were already in a "forever war" with Iran— they've said so! Repeatedly! We tried to treat it as "just rhetoric" but that was as stupid as a starlet saying "that creepy guy who sends me death threats just has a silly crush."

It's been high time we took ‘em out. And hey, they supposedly get 72 virgins* out of it. So they should be happy.

*I'm betting they all look like the three witches from Polanski's Macbeth. Either that, or a pit of starved hogs (all male). "Virgin" covers a lot of territory…

Benign transition or bloody civil war: what next for Iran after the bombing?

link

Armand

Ok time to state these again:

These are the U.S. currently stated goals. (Not those of the MSM or Presidential opponents).

"
Destroying Iran's Ballistic Missile Capabilities: This includes neutralizing offensive missiles and razing the country's missile production infrastructure to the ground.

Annihilating the Iranian Navy: The mission seeks to eliminate the IRGC navy to prevent the disruption of global shipping and the closing of the Strait of Hormuz.

Preventing Nuclear Weaponization: Ensuring that Iran never obtains a nuclear weapon by targeting remaining enrichment facilities and weaponization research sites.
PBS
"

NOTE! NOT regime change.

Can these be achieved by air and sea alone?

Objective ONE can only degrade it, not fully eliminate them. The amount of missiles coming from Iran has decreased daily according Israeli sources.

Objective TWO can be achieved, and most if not all their large ships are submarines this morning. ☠️

Objective THREE is like objective one, degraded. We and our ally can destroy the current development sites, uranium stockpiles that can be identified, take out scientist, etc.

So if the stated objectives can be achieved, but only to a "currently" degraded point. No boots and limited days. The administration could claim a limited victory. But rinse and repeat will eventually be necessary.

A process we should have used in Afghanistan and Iraq 2.

The MSM and political opponents will proclaim a failure. But they will no matter what happens.

What the goals of Israel are, is another story.

I will leave it this for now, I have my own views which will be stated later.

Thought the actual goals were important to get out here again as "media" goals are starting to pop up on TMP.

Department of War briefing will be live on Fox at 8 am.

If the Iran regime will still be in power after that kind of onslaught it will declare the greatest victory in the history of Persia.

The answer to that would be, what's new? They do that all the time. Of course over 50 top leaders, including the Ayatollah of Iran won't be able to proclaim it. ☠️

As to Kurds. Yes John was correct.

"Kurds living in western Iran could begin a rebellion within a matter of days after being secretly armed by the United States, according to reports.

The US and Israel are thought to be seeking an armed uprising and have been smuggling weapons to Kurdish volunteers since last year.

An on-ground rebellion could begin in the coming days after the American-Israeli offensive struck western Iranian security targets to degrade their capabilities."

The sources for this are not from US sources, the above was Daily Mail.

Key words are "could" and "thought", so speculation. Short of giving them a country and or vengeance, not sure what could be offered to them to cause them to do this. But it is out there.

"Turkey's defense ministry announced on Wednesday that a ballistic missile fired from Iran heading toward Turkish airspace had been shot down by NATO air defenses, threatening to pull more countries into the widening conflict in the Middle East.

The ministry did not say what the missile's intended target was. An attack on Turkey, a NATO ally that shares a 300-mile border with Iran, would mark a dangerous escalation in Iran's targeting of neighboring countries in retaliation for the attacks by the U.S. and Israel that began on Saturday. Hundreds of people in Iran and other regional countries have been killed in the fighting."

Contact has been made between Turkey to Iran, sending warnings.

Just heard this in the defense briefing. They showed the video.

I believe that's a first since WW2.

"An apparent submarine attack on an Iranian warship off the coast of Sri Lanka has left at least 101 people missing, one dead and 78 injured, sources in Sri Lanka's navy and defense ministry told Reuters on Wednesday.

The IRIS Dena frigate was armed with heavy guns, surface-to-air missiles, anti-ship missiles and torpedoes and could carry a helicopter."

👍

Parz,

"Rand Paul at least is operating on principles— principles with no real basis in actual historical precedent— but at least he's actually saying what he believes, and would take that stance no matter who was in the Oval Office or who controlled the Senate or House.

Everybody else is just trying to get cheap headlines."

I'd say Fetterman is operating on principles. Much more bravely than Paul. As Fetterman's party is viciously vindictive when their own oppose their stated views.

Their stated party wish by Jeffries below, just TWO DAYS into this. Rooting for the US to lose and failure.

"House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries predicted failure for the U.S. in an interview on Monday after the U.S. and Israel carried out strikes against Iran over the weekend.

"The American people want us to focus on making their life better and making their life more affordable; not getting involved in another endless war in the Middle East that is going to end in failure. This administration somehow found the resources, has found billions of dollars for bombs but can't find any money to actually bring down the high cost of living here in the United States of America," Jeffries said.

Jeffries spoke to CNN's Kate Bolduan after President Donald Trump announced on Saturday that the U.S. was carrying out strikes, along with Israel, against Iran."

Hoping for your countries failure. 😞 Reminds me of their response at the state of the Union.

I don't think he said he was hoping for failure, 35th. He predicted it. I think we have got to be able to show concern here about this possibility. It does not mean that we are wishing for bad news. We disagree about what might result from a risky action, led by some political figures who are disliked and not trusted by some.

I am not hoping for my country's failure in a war. I want those nukes gone. I think we were misled last year. But now that we are there delivering payback to these terrorist leaders and taking out their capabilities, I certainly want success. The aftermath is the hard part, requires a different kind of leadership. And it worries me that we are going downthis road because there are risks for unintended consequences. But I hope that we will avoid them and everyone will be better off.

Tort,

Your views are honest. (Possibly influenced by dislike of the President? 😉🙂). Couldn't resist. 😉

Jeffries and many others, are not. They want failure, and yes it is strictly political. To He#l whatever cost for that loss. You can read that on the web, from most Democrats.

Less than 2 days in and predicting failure.

How about this:
From Yahoo News

"Senator Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) told MS NOW's Chris Hayes that the United States is no longer a "world power."

Appearing on Monday night's edition of All In, the Arizona senator was unsparing in his criticism of the U.S. strike on Iran — and fuming about comments from Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

In a Monday press conference, Rubio said, "it was abundantly clear that if Iran came under attack by anyone — the United States, or Israel, or anyone — they were going to respond, and respond against the United States…We knew that there was going to be an Israeli action. We knew that that would precipitate an attack against American forces. And we knew that if we didn't preemptively go after them before they launched those attacks, we would suffer higher casualties."

Now please read this carefully.

"Gallego, in an X post Monday afternoon, responded to those comments by saying, "So Netanyahu now decides when we go to war? So much for America First."

The senator followed up Monday night by telling Hayes, "I guess we're not a world power anymore."

He added, "it just drove me mad, the fact that these guys just went to war on somebody else's word … that really pisses me off.""

Notice the current "talking point" in there?

Want another talking point?

Here you go, from him in the same article.

"
"Young American men and women are dying because of these idiots, right?" Gallego said. "These idiots that are just willing to sacrifice U.S. men, U.S. women, without any real thought about what they're doing and what the consequences are going to bring to these families."

The senator went on to rip President Donald Trump — accusing him of a lack of planning on a complex operation."

Again another talking point we have seen from the anti Trumpers here. Wonder where they heard it?

I understand some skepticism, but much of this is just Trump personal hatred.

My side on TMP decried the Afgan rout. We did NOT root for failure of the US military or the humiliation, or hope for US defeat. Just to spite Biden and the Democrats.

My beliefs are, many do hope for this, just to laugh and say "he he he!! Trump lost! Trump lost!" . That is truly sad, at least from Americans.

I'm not saying you are one, so please do not take this personally.

Earlier today, I posted that Iran had fired a missile that was destroyed by a NATO interceptor battery and fell into Turkey.

I wanted to see what response we would get on here. Members of NATO previously had been up in arms about the fictional invasion of Greenland and Also the Russian missile that veered into (Poland last year?)

So far crickets 🦗here and on the web.

"Attack on Turkey (March 4, 2026): NATO air defense systems in the eastern Mediterranean intercepted an Iranian ballistic missile heading toward Turkish airspace.

The missile passed through Iraqi and Syrian airspace before being neutralized.
Debris from the interceptor fell in the Dörtyol district of Hatay province; no casualties or injuries were reported.

NATO spokesperson Allison Hart officially condemned Iran's "targeting" of Turkey.

Attacks on Other Western Facilities (March 2, 2026): Iran has also targeted military facilities belonging to NATO members located outside of their home territories:

United Kingdom: A Shahed-type drone struck the British RAF base at Akrotiri in Cyprus.

France: French officials confirmed damage to a naval facility in Abu Dhabi following an Iranian strike."

Response by NATO representatives:

"NATO officials have condemned Iran's "indiscriminate attacks" but stated this specific incident is not expected to trigger Article 5 (collective defense) at this time.

Other non-NATO allies in the region, including Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and the UAE, have reported being targeted by hundreds of Iranian drones and missiles during this period.
CBS News"

So they rush troops, planes and ships to Greenland on evil talk by the Orange 😈, but nothing for actual attacks.

I really am not asking for anything from them, just wanted to point out the dichotomy in actions.

We're running out of stuff, according to the hyena jackal MSM on Drudge.
Precision munitions.
Interceptor missiles. $2,000 USD drone vs $2,000,000 USD anti drone missile. Do the math. Are our Patriot missile factories running overtime?

Israel keeps killing the latest Fearless Leader. Another pops up.

I'm NOT cheering for failure. Far from it. I simply do not see anything that makes me confident.
Iran has plenty of Ayatollahs to take up the torch. How many missiles do we have left? And this is just the sort of Armageddon they've been dreaming of for centuries.
Do you doubt the existence of the 11 nukes? Do you really think that that program was smashed?

It's almost as if the ghost of Dick Cheney is running things again. "Don't worry about the aftermath! I wanna see big booms!"

To counter an earlier post.
Obama did not "gift" a drone to Iran. Some genius forbade a self destruct mechanism for a snooper drone. The reasoning for that evades me. 🤷🙄
It crashed, but was not destroyed.
Then it was reverse engineered.

I'll grant that the word "gift" may have been sarcastic. Da Interwebs don't handle sarcasm well.

John that was covered in today's Department of war briefing. I told everyone the time and channel to watch. Did you not watch? Shame!! 🙂

Pete even had a cute one liner.

Today's summary from Iran International:

"Summary
NATO units intercepted an Iran-fired ballistic missile headed toward Turkish airspace Wednesday, triggering Ankara's protest and the alliance's condemnation.

Blasts were heard in Tehran as Israel launched a new wave of strikes on targets in the Iranian capital on Wednesday.

Sri Lanka said on Wednesday that it launched a search south of the island after an Iranian warship sank in a submarine attack, leaving about 80 rescued and around 100 missing.

The United States Central Command released an update on Operation Epic Fury on Tuesday, reporting that nearly 2,000 targets have been hit, 17 Iranian naval vessels – including the country's most operational submarine – have been destroyed, and US forces have deployed one-way drones against Iran's military infrastructure.

Iran's Assembly of Experts elected Ali Khamenei's son Mojtaba as the next Supreme Leader under pressure from the Revolutionary Guards, informed sources told Iran International."

Thanks 35th…While I dislike the personal character of the Pres, I do not wish him to fail. It hurts everyone. The Repubs were no different putting party first. We need a good outcome from this latest action. We have amazing armed forces. I don't think anyone is thinking or hoping they won't succeed in this mission. But there are consistently a lot of "what next" questions when the fighting ends. And Rubio's comments about Israel have caused a lot of concern. And with reason. Again, nobody is questioning our troops or commanders. Except at the top – regarding the plans for the future. Partisan, yes. But not just partisan.

Again, winning the peace in the ME. That's the prize.

I am of the opinion that Operation Midnight Hammer did not go far enough; this is what should have happened then. The thought behind OMH was still trapped in Western assumptions that the Iranian government was actually secretly reasonable and could be brought to a rational understanding that nuclear weapons were not going to be in their arsenal, no matter what. That's the sort of thinking that arises from dealing with Western style "saber rattlers"— that somehow the violent rhetoric is just for show, to appease the blood-thirsty masses, and not what the intelligent, mindful diplomats want to happen.
Well, that thinking was wrong— it has always been wrong. Islamic fundamentalism isn't for show— what they yell, they actually believe. And what they believe, they intend to carry out. Maybe we should offer kudos to Trump for trying to make it work and offering the Iranian government leadership (not the religious leadership) a way out, but not falling for the trap of assuming that negotiation was going to *always* produce a viable solution (as previous presidents assumed).

Does ANYBODY here believe that Iran was going to give up its ambitions, plans, and efforts to build an arsenal of atomic warheads and international and even intercontinental ballistic missiles? Seriously? Because that's what you HAVE to believe if you think either the Obama or Biden approach was working.

Frankly, believing such a thing goes beyond politics— it borders on delusion.

And further, does anybody here believe that the Ayatollah Khanemei would never give an order to use such weapons on Tel Aviv? Or Paris? Or New York City? Or that somehow a miracle would occur and the bloodthirsty leadership of the Iranian Republican Guard would not carry it out?

That goes beyond delusion into outright stupidity.

There was NO possibility of MAD with Iran. It worked against the Soviets because the Soviet leadership didn't actually believe the crap they were saying. Communism is a religious state of mind, not a functioning economic system— and they knew it, very early on. The Russian dream is not Communist or Marxist— that's just a front. They wanted power and wealth, in either order, and to get to tell the world what to do. Beyond that, there was no God behind statements, no faith that what they were saying was anything but a useful pack of lies. Thus, there was no motivation whatsoever among the Soviet leadership to actually launch nuclear weapons, ever. Nukes destroy stuff and kill people, and render the landscape unlivable. You can't conquer unlivable land to any meaningful degree. It does not give you power, and it cannot bring you wealth. The only purpose for the nuclear arsenals of the West and the East have been to forestall direct conventional warfare out of the thin edge of suspicion that *this* pack of leaders might be nuts, but tempered by a rational bet that they were not nutty enough. MAD, under that condition, worked— because the leadership weren't actually mad.

This is not the case with Iran. They are not touting an economic belief system of any kind. They are not putting forth a political system. They don't care about any of that. They want power and wealth, yes, but at the very top they want nothing less than to finally trigger the worldwide Armageddon that will usher in the coming of the Mahdi to finally cleanse the world of all the infidels— and that includes ANYBODY and EVERYBODY who is reading this. It even includes the majority of Muslims, who do not recognize their Ayatollah (whomever that happens to be at the moment— whoops, just got a new one) as the Supreme Voice of Islam. The sole reason-to-be of their government is to carry out this abject lunacy. Period.
These people actually ARE nuts. They will NOT enter into a state of MAD as the Soviets/Russians (and the CCP) have done. They will get the weapons, and then they will use them.

There was NO possibility of MAD with Iran. It worked against the Soviets because the Soviet leadership didn't actually believe the crap they were saying.

😄
This is one of the reasons why true believer Communist ideologues (see university campuses) insist that Communism and Socialism have never been tried accurately. There always SOMETHING that defers these failures from Truth.

The clerics in Iran are True Believers (note caps) 12th Imam. Martyrdom is their goal. 72 virgins? Propaganda. That's not at the top of their list. Lust is sinful.
MAD, to them, is a comical Western thing. Bring it on!

Parz, +1

You are preaching to the Choir in my case. The religious leadership of Iran, the Republican Guard and a large chunk of Iranian civilians accept this as fact and the true word.

Later I will place some of the beliefs of the terrorist in Austin from his web presence. Remember he was NOT Iranian.

So, I "did my research". Google. Yes, Lockheed Martin and Raytheon are ramping up production of Patriot missiles.
And I hope HOPE that precision munitions are likewise.
Israel's lasers are real Buck Rodgers gadgets, and I hope they're reproducible in quantity.

But, are they going to be enough? Will there be enough to deal with China?

It's the leadership I have massive problems with. "Mercurial" isn't the half of it. You're absolutely correct in that I have zero respect for them. Ask Zelensky about consistency and reliability. "Oh look! A butterfly!" 🙄
And not much more respect for Congress, bless their hearts.

Lookie here! Chinese ally Mauritius wants Starmer to transfer control of Diego Garcia immediately to them, and to stop the US from using it to topple the Iranian regime.

Mauritius Backs Iran and Demands Immediate Chagos Islands Handover

link

And Iran has applauded Spain's refusal to allow US aircraft to use US-paid for bases in Spain: ‘They have rejected the aggression and that is valuable to us.'

Justifying Spain's refusal to cooperate, José Manuel Albares, the foreign minister, insisted that, ‘A logic of violence, as we are seeing, only leads to a spiral of violence, when unilateral military actions outside the United Nations Charter… have no clear objective. Europe must defend international law, de-escalation and negotiation…'

But Spain took no action, except a letter calling for peace, whem Iran butchered 30,000 protesters. So sanctions, no direct diplomatic measures, no suits filed in the ICC, no initiative in the UN. When Iran fired hundreds of missiles and drones at Israel, Spain did nothing. When Iranian proxies like Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis attacked Israel and others, sinking ships, kidnapping merchant crews. Spain did nothing. When Iran sent Russia over 8,000 drones that have been launched against Ukraine, Spain did nothing.

But now the Iranian regime is potentially falling, one of Russia's few active allies in the Ukraine War and whose actions have cost thousands of Ukrainian casualties, Spain takes action -- and Iran is pleased. Spain condemns the US with very much the same words and feelings as Putin's condemnation of the US. Oh, and Xi of China.

Putin calls it, "a "cynical violation of all norms of human morality and international law."

Xi says, US actions "violate the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Iran" and calls for "descalation" and resolution "through diplomacy and the UN framework."

What a strange world we live in when the leader of Spain takes the side of the brutal leaders of Iran and Russia and China.

Here's the worst part. Gamblers who bet on the death of Khameni aren't getting paid!
link

Ok the Austin Shooter, (which Austin will still not say was an Islamic terrorist).

From his web:

"
The shooter responsible for Sunday's mass shooting in Austin reportedly ran an X account where he unleashed numerous anti-Christian, antisemitic and other highly inflammatory comments, including slurs such as "fake jewish wh—" and "monkey looking b—-."
"
…
"
"THE ISLAMIC REVOLUTION IS ETERNAL AND HERE TO STAY UNTIL THE END OF TIME, you Zionist and islamophobes can be angry all you want but you can't do a d--- thing about it, no matter what," one post from August 2025 said.

The comment was a reply to Islamic Republic of Iran's Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi, who criticized President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
"
….,
"
"So funny Islam is considered an enemy to America? Because Jesus who came out of a vagina can never be GOD, just read Mark 12:29, John 17:3, your lies, propaganda, insults and smear will not stop ISLAM, ISLAM is here to save you in this world and the hereafter," he said in a post from November.
"
….
"
Several posts were direct replies to Trump supporters and right-wing influencers, including one that said, "you and your Israel first acolytes fake Jews know it, so melt down all you want you ugly b----."

Last October, he also said, "Shut the f--- up, you f---ing Israel-first wh---. Move to Israel, you f---ing b----."
"
….
"
Beyond religion and politics, the account frequently shared misogynistic content.

"No one wants you that's why you were single for 4 years, look at you, nobody in their own mind would date, what do you have going, you fat and ugly like a pig, women belong to the kitchen and bedroom," he said in November 2024.
"
Does this all sound very familiar?

Here is what they are still saying about him.

"Ndiaga Diagne, a 53-year-old naturalized U.S. citizen born in Senegal, opened fire just before 2 a.m. at a crowded bar, killing three people and wounding 13 others. Authorities say they are investigating the incident as a "potential nexus to terrorism" after he appeared to wear a "Property of Allah" sweatshirt and an undershirt depicting the Iranian flag. A Quran was also later recovered from his vehicle, officials added."

Yes and Jeffrey Dahmer "might, possibly, potentially" have been a cannibal .But let's not jump to conclusions. 🙄

Highlights of today's department of war briefing according to AI:

Key Military Updates

Air Superiority: Secretary Hegseth announced that the U.S. and Israel will have "complete control" of Iranian skies and uncontested airspace within a few days.

Operational Intensity: Operation Epic Fury has delivered twice the air power of the 2003 "Shock and Awe" campaign in Iraq and is operating at seven times the intensity of previous Israeli operations against Iran.

Munitions & Stockpiles: The U.S. is transitioning to using precision gravity bombs (500 to 2,000 lbs) as air defenses are degraded. Hegseth emphasized that stockpiles of these munitions and Patriot missiles remain "extremely strong".

Casualties: As of the fourth day of the conflict, the number of U.S. service members killed in action stands at six.

Strategic Momentum: Hegseth stated the military is "accelerating, not decelerating," noting that more bombers and fighters are arriving today."
….

During the Department of War briefing on March 4, 2026, General Dan Caine, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, provided the following updates regarding Operation Epic Fury:

Expansion of Military Operations

Inland Strikes: General Caine announced that after establishing local air superiority, U.S. forces will now expand operations inland, striking progressively deeper into Iranian territory.

Freedom of Maneuver: These deeper strikes are designed to create additional freedom of maneuver for U.S. and allied forces.

Neutralizing Threats: He confirmed the U.S. has neutralized Iran's naval presence and significantly disabled its integrated air defense capabilities.
C-SPAN.org
C-SPAN.org

Degradation of Iranian Capabilities

Missile Launch Decrease: Caine reported that Iranian theater ballistic missile launches have dropped 86% since the start of the conflict, with a 23% decrease in the last 24 hours alone.

Drone Suppression: One-way attack drone shots from Iran are down 73% compared to the opening days of the war.

Target Count: The Pentagon estimates that over 2,000 targets in and around Iran have been struck to date.
CNN
CNN

Force Status & Logistics

Casualty Updates: General Caine paid tribute to six U.S. service members killed in the opening phase, identifying four Army Reserve soldiers from the 103rd Sustainment Command.

Munition Supplies: He stated that the U.S. maintains sufficient precision munitions for both offensive and defensive tasks, though he declined to release specific quantities for operational security.

Ongoing Risk: Caine cautioned that service members "remain in harm's way" and that the military must remain clear-eyed about the high ongoing risk as the conflict continues."

Oh good grief. You consistently mistake negotiating tactics with "mercurial." They are not the same. Look at the long term goals and objectives in each circumstance. Earlier you guys were screaming "TACO" whenever Trump backed off a position (which you had already labelled "extreme"). Now you're saying "mercurial."

Sorry, don't see that. I see some "nice doggy" talk while we reached for the stick. An opportunity to come to an agreement that everybody is happy with, followed by firm, immediate and harsh action when they refuse is not mercurial. OMH was the first whack with the stick, intended to forestall action and reset the clock, with a diplomatic resolution offered— a very generous one, amounting to "all the reactor fuel you need for your people, for free, if you give up weapons grade enrichment attempts." When you get a "no" response to that with threats attached, you recognize that there's no point in further negotiation, and you beat the damn dog to death.

Even now, the US side of things is entirely against military targets. We aren't hitting the Iranian government, or even their religious leadership. Israel is doing that. We offer intelligence back and forth, but the action on that intelligence is theirs.
So far:
— Iran's ability to threaten shipping in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman is effectively gone.
— Iran's air defenses are definitively gone.
— Random missile attacks still exist, but the munitions are rapidly being destroyed. And with full air superiority, the US and Israel can obliterate factories, launch sites, and various other elements with impunity.

"But they showed a video of drones!"
Yeah, the Iranian government shows a *lot* of things, which they do not actually have. The only response to that video should be to hit them again. At this point, they're swiftly becoming Monty Python's Black Knight.

Parzival +1

Great points. It's totally being overlooked by critics that the US' core demand was Iran finally and totally abandon its nuclear weapons program. In exchange the US would give it a free supply of civil grade nuclear reactor material and help with civil reactors. Iran refused. It's also another big red flag that, along with almost 50 years of unremitting hostility, that it's theocratic leadership follow a religious view that their blessed 12th Imam can be summoned by an apocalypse to usher in a golden era of global Islam…

Okay. Let's see a show of hands for those who think a Kurdish invasion of Iran is a Good Idea.
link

I don't see any Turkish hands going up?
Unless it's seen as a good way to get them all slaughtered and out of their hair.

And, please. Let's stop this "Department of War" nonsense. Congress named it the Department of Defense. The name can only be changed by a Law or Bill. Not by the whim of …..

I don't eschew optimism but a dash of reality is good:
YouTube link

YouTube link

It seems Spain has now rescinded their prohibition

"As of March 4, 2026, the White House announced that Spain has agreed to cooperate with U.S. military operations in the Middle East. This follows intense diplomatic pressure after Spain initially refused to allow the U.S. to use its military bases for actions against Iran.
The Hill
The Hill

Key details regarding this development:

The Agreement: While Spain initially barred the use of its territory for strikes against Iran, citing violations of international law, the White House indicated on Wednesday that Spain reversed this stance, with spokesperson Karoline Leavitt stating, "It's my understanding over the past several hours, they've agreed to cooperate with the U.S. Military".

Bases Involved: The cooperation involves joint-use installations, specifically Naval Station Rota and Morón Air Base in southern Spain, which remain under Spanish command.

Context: The shift followed threats from President Trump to cut off all trade with Spain due to their refusal to allow the use of these bases for strikes against Iran.

Initial Refusal: Prior to the agreement, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez and Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares had stated the bases would not be used for anything outside the existing bilateral treaty or for missions not aligned with the UN Charter. "

OVI +1

SBm +1

Parz +1

In short, the kinetic side looks planned; the wider system effects, less so.

As I have posted before your comments/assumptions are not really valid, in light of the current situation. Read what OVI, etc., have posted already … in detail.

Frankly IMO and others I'm sure your assessments are more based on bias, TDS, and looking thru a straw from far, far, away.

BTW – let me reiterate what the WH/Pentagon, etc. are saying. This is a massive operation. No other militaries on the planet could execute this type of campaign with the numbers, capabilities, precision, effectiveness, efficiency, etc. as the US and IDF.

Also saw at WH briefing this AM. The report of Iranian children being killed during strikes is propaganda. As we have seen with Hamas, and other reports coming from islamist sources. However, the WH, Pentagon, etc. is looking into it. IMO the probability of it being true is very small. But admittedly in this type of kinetic action, it could happen.

The situation of 1000s of US citizens being unable to leave Israel and Arab nations in that region is being remedied. With over 1000 being flown, etc. out of harm's way. With over a 1000+
remain. The actions to get all out is ongoing. Have not heard the exact mechanics of this withdrawal.

However, the State Dep. has been sending warnings to all to stay away from those locations. And they should get out ASAP. For at least a month. Maybe some civilians should pay a little more attention to current events. And e.g. the State Dep., etc.

I'm not sure that's 100% accurate. The book that "revealed" that had an agenda. And it was disputed.

That maybe true, but you know as I being students of history, some new things may be revealed, either way. As time pass, intel changes classifications change, etc.

So next thing you're going to tell me that *Napoleon* didn't have a B-52 at Waterloo ?!?!? Geez !!!

I am SO glad I am a historian! It is so much easier to make sense of events after they are over!! But I do enjoy reading bright and well-informed gamer friends kicking this stuff around. At least half of the things being debated here will turn out to have been irrelevant -- but we have no way of knowing at this point which half. Carry on!!

Now Spain Denies it. ;)

"Spain denies White House brief over cooperation in Iran war

Spain's government has denied cooperating with US military operations in the Middle East, contradicting comments made earlier by the White House.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt had said Spain agreed to assist US military operations in the region after President Donald Trump threatened to cut off trade with Madrid.

But Spanish Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares rejected that claim in an interview with Cadena SER radio.

"The Spanish Government's position regarding the war in the Middle East and the bombings in Iran, regarding the use of our bases, has not changed by a single comma," he said."

Now White House denies using Kurds ;)

This and last via Iran International.

"Scorecard here, scorecard here! You can't tell the players without a scorecard!" 😉

"White House denies report Trump discussed Kurdish forces entering Iran

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt dismissed as "false" reports that President Donald Trump had discussed a plan with Kurdish leaders to send forces into Iran, saying the conversation had instead focused on US military bases in the region.

Leavitt also defended the administration's military campaign against Iran, calling Operation Epic Fury "a resounding success" and arguing the conflict could ultimately benefit global energy markets because the Islamic Republic would no longer be able to control the strategic Strait of Hormuz."

You know, the crusade against slavery in the US was successful, ending with the 13th Amendment. It was followed by a dubious Reconstruction and a pernicious segregation, and the full fruits of our efforts to make the Declaration as much a reality as an ideal are only in my lifetime coming to fruition. Things take time. I have learned, in my personal life and in various difficult ministries and also in teaching, that "success" has many definitions and is never fully achieved in this life. But from time to time we can make the world a better place, if only for a while and for some people. Removing the mullahs from control of Iran makes the world a better place.

So next thing you're going to tell me that *Napoleon* didn't have a B-52 at Waterloo ?!?!? Geez !!!

It was a "what if" question. 🤷
So, we don't really know, do we?
Frankly, that belongs on the Napoleonic Fantasy Board. Not here in Ultramodern Fantasy.

Amen to this, doc…

Scorecard here, scorecard here! You can't tell the players without a scorecard!

I had "submarine sinks an Iranian ship off Sri Lanka" on my Bingo card! All I need to get 4 corners is "Son of Shah files paperwork to run for Supreme Leader!"

OVI +1

doc +1

Carry on!!

"It ani't over until it's over !"

It ain't over until the fat lady sings" 🤩

Let's stop this "Department of War" nonsense. Congress named it the Department of Defense.

That was a psyops type of thing. To help bring back the warrior spirit to the military. After Biden et al neutered it into kinder gentler DEI/CRT/LGBTQ, etc. faux military. E.g. I clearly remember Biden saying to the troops e.g. something like the military's #1 priority is climate change. I can't ever think anyone thought that was a good idea. I know none of the soldiers I served with would agree with that.

BUT, as important after our enemies saw the US Military having their ⚾⚽🥎🏀🏐🏈 put in storage. By the Biden Admin, those in Congress, etc. Our enemies who only understand/respect/fear[e.g. not trans ADMs, etc.] extreme military prowess, strength, power, etc. Maybe some who never served in a combat unit wouldn't understand that. And never will …

I don't eschew optimism but a dash of reality is good:

Reality according to who ? What is the source ? Optimism is a poor substitute for good intel, high tech equipment, well trained, lead, motivated, warfighters. E.g. Opposite of what one saw of the Russian military in Ukraine since they rolled across that border.

Again, look at the success the US and IDF has had in 5 Days of a massive operation. Severely attriting IRGC, Basji, etc. assets.

The battle for Iran is not over …

Plus, the [late]Ayatollah's son is to be his daddy's replacement. And there is a new IRGC Cdr. Anyone want to start a "Dead Pool" ? ☠ Seeing how long it is before these two pigs are sent to the slaughterhouse. I am saying 5 days … no more than a week 💵💵💵

By the time this campaign is over Paradise with have to rent more space. ⛱🌈

I said I would say something earlier this morning.

only my own views.

I have absolutely no love for those running Iran, the Guard that keeps them in power, those citizens who put them in power, nor fundamentalist Islam and those who practice it.

I am sure many feel the same.

I believe this attack has been long in coming and put off way too long since 79.

Without Iran supplying and paying them, much of the terrorism we all face today would disappear.

I believe they should get everything coming to them.

So, and this may come as a surprise, if we could destroy the Republican Guard and replace those in power there, with a more moderate government (of whatever kind), I would not be adverse to using ground troops to achieve it. Just until a government is in place.

No, we don't need to do that to achieve the current stated goals.

But another government, just like the old and supported by an intact Republican Guard of Islamic fanatics, will just force us to do this all again under another administration. Sadly, based on some of our previous administrations, they could well NOT have the " hanging down things" to do it, or worse would just try and appease them again.

I surely don't want to lose the men and women in our service. But I hate to see a great opportunity lost. In addition we have so many Iranians who want this change. Arm them and send them into the streets too.

Obviously I'm not privileged to what is or is not being planned, as are none of the rest of us. But if ground forces were determined to be needed to achieve the best long term results to benefit our country and those who have been affected by Islamic terrorism worldwide, I would not be opposed.

It was a "what if" question. 🤷
So, we don't really know, do we?

We'll have to ask …

Frankly, that belongs on the Napoleonic Fantasy Board. Not here in Ultramodern Fantasy.

Did Bill start two new boards ? 🤔

"Son of Shah files paperwork to run for Supreme Leader!"

Wasn't that on that TV show "The Shahs of Sunset ?

Removing the mullahs from control of Iran makes the world a better place.

doc +1 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ …

But some keep asking why did we do this ? Iran was not an imminent threat … Radical islamists with nukes … what could possibly go wrong ?

Do they have to have deployable nukes before those fools would/could call it imminent ?

Do they understand how nukes work ?

Or nukes are a 0 – Sum game ?

Are they blinded by their ignorance and bias ?

Let's hope we don't ever have to find out what happens when islamists start tossing nukes around. I think it's called an extinction level event … Ask the dinosaurs🦖🦕🦎 … but the only place you'll find those today is in your gas tank …🚗🚙🚐🚛🚜🚕🚚

Or Jurassic Park …

We need Kamala Harris now more than ever!

"(HIC) I have hors doeurved… (HIC) …ordered the mil… (watches screen to see what's next) (HIC)..italy… ilitary… whassaever… to stand… stand.. stand me another round? Shuuurree, I'll have a(HIC)nuther… because *I* am unburdened by what has been. And Venn diagrams. Them. Totally them. Take a nap? In a yellow bus? Shuurreee, why not!" (THUD— falls flat on face.)

And then she'd write her next book How to Lose a War in 10 Days or Less.