"So does the Iranian regime finally fall THIS TIME?" Topic

More:

"Iran promised to open the Strait of Hormuz, and they knowingly failed to do so. This caused anxiety, dislocation, and pain to many people and Countries throughout the World. They say they put mines in the water, even though all of their Navy, and most of their "mine droppers," have been completely blown up. They may have done so, but what ship owner would want to take the chance? There is great dishonor and permanent harm to the reputation of Iran, and what's left of their "Leaders," but we are beyond all of that. As they promised, they better begin the process of getting this INTERNATIONAL WATERWAY OPEN AND FAST! Every Law in the book is being violated by them. I have been fully debriefed by Vice President JD Vance, Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner, on the meeting that took place in Islamabad through the kind and very competent leadership of Field Marshal Asim Munir, and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, of Pakistan. They are very extraordinary men, and continuously thank me for saving 30 to 50 million lives in what would have been a horrendous War with India. I always appreciate hearing that — The amount of Humanity spoken of is incomprehensible.

The meeting with Iran began early in the morning, and lasted throughout the night — Close to 20 hours. I could go into great detail, and talk about much that has been gotten but, there is only one thing that matters — IRAN IS UNWILLING TO GIVE UP ITS NUCLEAR AMBITIONS! In many ways, the points that were agreed to are better than us continuing our Military Operations to conclusion, but all of those points don't matter compared to allowing Nuclear Power to be in the hands of such volatile, difficult, unpredictable people. My three Representatives, as all of this time went by, became, not surprisingly, very friendly and respectful of Iran's Representatives, Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, Abbas Araghchi, and Ali Bagheri, but that doesn't matter because they were very unyielding as to the single most important issue and, as I have always said, right from the beginning, and many years ago, IRAN WILL NEVER HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON!"

If that is the position, then we are no longer talking about a limited coercive operation but about forcing a maximal outcome.

A blockade of Hormuz combined with a stated refusal to tolerate any nuclear capability raises a practical question: what is the intended end state if Iran remains unwilling?

Is the objective a return to negotiations under greater pressure, or the complete destruction of Iran's nuclear program by force? If the later, that is a significantly larger undertaking than what has been described so far.

More brodly, if "all that matters" is eliminating Iran's nuclear ambition, then the strategy must be judged against that standard. It is not yet clear that the current course achieves that objective, as opposed to prolonging the conflict while leaving the underlying issue unresolved.

"55m ago / 1:00 PM EDT
Details and takeaways on Vance-led negotiations in Islamabad

Henry J. Gomez
and
Garrett Haake
U.S. negotiators expected the talks with Iran yesterday to be a brief table-setting meeting to tee up future talks. Instead, it turned into continuous negotiations over 21 hours, according to a source familiar with the talks.

Vance went into these negotiations recognizing that the U.S. and Iran have interacted little over the last 50 years — a dynamic that could foster mistrust and misperceptions, a U.S. official familiar with the talks told NBC News. One of his primary goals was to reach mutual understanding of respective objectives and negotiating space.

This official characterized the talks as tough but said that by the end there was a friendly and productive exchange of proposals.

It was clear to Vance and the U.S. delegation, the official added, that Iranians did not understand the core U.S. objective: that any deal be anchored by an agreement that Iran never obtain a nuclear weapon.

Throughout the talks, Vance attempted to correct this misunderstanding and left Islamabad after delivering a best and final offer to Iran that he believed should be fair and acceptable to all parties.

Vance, the official added, also used the talks to probe the counterparties' own assessment of their position and came away with the conclusion that they had misperceived their negotiating strength — that the Iranians believe they have leverage that the U.S. believes they lack.

This is why, the official said, Vance left Islamabad after delivering the final offer. The Iranians need to recognize that the realities on the ground do not reflect the assumptions they held when they arrived at the negotiations before they will be ready to entertain a serious offer, this person added.

Vance has said that a deal remains on the table and that it's up to Iran to accept.

Meanwhile, the official said the national security team in consultation with Trump has devised a plan to break the Iranians' closure on the Straits of Hormuz. They also aim to counter the notion that the straits can deflect from the core U.S. issue, which is the Iranian nuclear program.

According to the official, Vance is pragmatic, but not naive. He was hopeful of making a deal, but over the 21 hours of negotiation, Vance also probed Iran's vulnerabilities, and now Trump will test them. It's on Iran, the official said, to recognize the reality of the U.S. position.

The U.S. and Iran did not reach agreement on the following points:

For Iran to end all uranium enrichment
To dismantle all major nuclear enrichment facilities in Iran
To retrieve highly enriched uranium from Iran
To accept a broader peace, security and de-escalation framework that includes regional allies
For Iran to end funding for its proxies Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis
For Iran to fully open the Strait of Hormuz, charging no tolls for passage
The President very much wants this conflict to be over and behind him, but he's demonstrated a willingness to restart it if necessary, according to a source close to the White House.

The source said their expectations on tomorrow's negotiations leading to a permanent deal are low.

"I think it's obvious that the President wants peace and wants out of this conflict, and so maybe he's given JD some latitude here," the source said.

Vance understands he is there as the President's deputy, and the idea that he will bring his own agenda is over-spun, according to the source, who added that Vance is a utility player.

"His inclusion shows our seriousness," the source said. "Its elevated, if our second most powerful official is there. Jared and Witkoff are powerful people, but they're not constitutional officers elected by the nation. I think it shows how importantly we're taking these talks."

When asked if there are any concerns about Vance's lack of experience in this kind of arena, the source said: "experience in foreign policy is certainly not indicative of either success or smart ideas."

"I don't know if a lifetime of attending Council on Foreign Relations luncheons suggests someone's ability to do a good job," the source said."

I understand that any cargo ship flying the Russian or Chinese flag will be stopped by the US Navy?… So… there is no longer free navigation in that area for anyone?… Under what principle are these nations, which have nothing to do with the conflict, being treated?

Armand

I was wondering this also Armand. How can we just keep issuing orders to anybody we choose and think everyone will listen?

The short answer is that the Strait is closed because we attacked Iran and they responded, just not with conventional military force, where they had no chance from the first minute. Shutting down the Strait is asking for more economic trouble as well as greater risk of triggering escalation.

My understanding is only ships carrying cargo to or from Iran.

But all we know is a blockade and details are vague, probably purposefully.

Scope: The blockade applies to vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports, including those in the Gulf of Oman and Arabian Gulf.

Exemptions: Navigation for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to/from non-Iranian ports will not be restricted, according to CENTCOM.

Enforcement: The US Navy will intercept and inspect vessels, with specific orders to stop ships that have paid tolls to Iran.

OVI +1

Shutting down the Strait is asking for more economic trouble as well as greater risk of triggering escalation.

I see it as without Iran opening up the Strait, they triggered the escalation.

Two US ADM Ret just said, this is an economic move. And demonstrated what little power Iran really has. The US is not playing Iran's game. The US is going after the islamists regime. And this is just turning up the pressure. Again letting Iran know you can't do much. And more US assets are coming …

Another move on Chess Board …

If Iran can't get paid for their oil … they can't pay the IRGC, etc., etc.

If Iran can't get other assets, they need to function, etc. … Things will get just that much worse.

"$ Talks" … It says nothing is there is none of it …

Blockade crazy? Don't let these get in your way.

"1/10 The U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would cost Iran approximately $276 USDM/day in lost exports and disrupt $159 USDM/day in imports, a combined economic damage of ~$435M/day, or $13 USDB/month.

Over 90% of Iran's $109.7 USDB in annual trade transits the Persian Gulf. Oil/gas accounts for 80% of government export earnings and 23.7% of GDP. Kharg Island alone generates ~$53B/year, or as I noted to @TIME, "$78 billion a year in energy revenue.

2/10 CRUDE OIL: Iran was exporting ~1.5M barrels/day, earning $139 USDM/day at wartime pricing (~$87/barrel), though with minimal proceed repatriation due to banking sanctions. A blockade zeroes this out overnight. Kharg Island, which handles 92% of crude exports, sits deep inside the Gulf with no viable alternative. That's $139 USDM/day, gone.

3/10 PETROCHEMICALS: Iran exported $19.7 USDB in petrochemicals in 9 months of 2024/25, ~$54M/day. Virtually all of it ships through Assaluyeh, Imam Khomeini, and Shahid Rajaee, all inside the blockade zone. No overland route can move these volumes. Another $54 USDM/day, gone.

4/10 NON-OIL EXPORTS: Iran's non-oil trade hit $51.7 USDB in 2025. After subtracting petrochemicals, ~$88M/day in goods (minerals, metals, etc.) flow through Persian Gulf ports. Roughly 90% would be blocked. That's another ~$79M/day in lost revenue.

5/10 PORTS: Over 90% of Iran's seaborne trade transits the Strait of Hormuz. Shahid Rajaee (Bandar Abbas) alone handles 53% of all cargo operations. Imam Khomeini handles 58% of basic goods imports. Bushehr ports moved 57M tons last year. All deep inside the Gulf.

6/10 ALTERNATIVES? Iran's options outside the Strait are negligible. Jask, the much-touted bypass, operates at a fraction of its 1M bbl/day design capacity. Only 10 of 20 storage tanks were built. Effective throughput: ~70K bbl/day. Chabahar handles just 8.5M tons/year. The five Caspian ports combined handle 11M tons, versus 220M+ through the Gulf.

7/10 IMPORTS: Iran imported $58 USDB in goods in 2025, ~$159M/day. A blockade chokes off industrial inputs, machinery, and consumer goods. Food inflation already hit 105% by February 2026. Rice prices are up 7x. This gets dramatically worse under blockade. Blockade will hopefully allow offloading of the humanitarian cargos.

8/10 Extremely important topic is the storage clock: Iran has ~50-55M barrels of total onshore oil storage, roughly 60% full. Spare capacity: ~20M barrels. With 1.5M bbl/day of surplus production that normally exports, storage fills in ~13 DAYS. After that, Iran must shut in wells.

Why is this very important: when mature oil wells shut down, bottom water rushes in, a process called water coning. Oil droplets get permanently trapped in rock pores. This oil can never be recovered. Iran's fields already decline 5-8% annually. Forced shut-ins could permanently destroy 300,000-500,000 bbl/day of production capacity, that's $9 USD-15B/year in revenue, gone forever.

9/10 CURRENCY COLLAPSE ACCELERANT: The rial has already cratered from 42,000 to 1.5M per dollar. Banks are limiting withdrawals to $18 USD-30/day. Overall inflation: 47.5%. A blockade eliminating all forex earnings pushes the rial into terminal hyperinflation. The regime issued its largest-ever banknote, 10M rials, worth about $7. USD

10/10 BOTTOM LINE: A naval blockade imposes ~$435M/day in combined economic damage. Storage fills in 13 days, forcing well shut-ins that cause permanent reservoir damage. The rial enters terminal collapse. Iran's alternatives outside the Strait can replace less than 10% of Gulf throughput. The blockade makes continued resistance economically impossible."

I'd add, what if we make the blockade even easier and destroy every port they have capable of handling crude in and out? Don't need to turn back ships then.

It will also cost Americans billions per day to keep this up. Most Americans do not favor the war, say it is unclear in its objectives, which I believe involves POTUS talking way too much, using unprecedented obscenity laced threats of annihilation, and giving a speech on the war which included some disconcerting stumbles. The negative impact on the global economy is rippling out to every body.

This all takes far too much reverse engineering after the fact to make us believe a broad strategic plan was fully developed. The military did its job as ordered and will continue.

This is NOT political, nor am I am going off on POTUS looking for some sort of alleged TDS diagnosis in the middle of a war – except as a strategic commander. I want him to succeed in neutralizing Iran. But the right stuff is not just bluster or blowing the hell out of things when it comes to commanding on the world stage. IMO. I don't feel good about this.

Tort,

Other Options?

If and when Iran could produce a nuke and or multiple dirty bombs.

I do believe it was only a matter of when, which I believe was a very short time away.

So how would the world economy have been affected, when a nation run by radical fundamentalist Muslims, who follow a messianic death cult philosophy, had those weapons of mass destruction?

A regime who has practiced terrorism and perpetuated terrorism worldwide.

Whose proxies have no issues killing men, women and children when those are all infidels.

Every other attempt to prevent this happening, has failed. Even "trust but verify". You can't verify when the regime won't let you to the sites to verify.

I do trust the assessment of what and where Iran was.

Me?

I would not have been as nice as the President has been. I'd have hit infrastructure early on. Also bridges would be down. Harbors wrecked.
I would have hit every isolated Guard site, forcing them closer toward Tehran, for potential eventual more centralized hits. Maybe then the people would do something, at least outside of Tehran. (Who knows).

War is war and Iran has been perpetuating one against us since 79. There is much more justification for this conflict than there was for Iraq 2, Vietnam, Libya or the intervention in Kosovo.

Yes, I do get where you stand on this, 35th. If you had been in command maybe things would have gone faster! There is something to be said for that, just go in and get it over with. As you may recall, I have been wanting payback for Beirut, which was Iran via Hezbollah, for years. And no POTUS has solved the issue.

I would have preferred a more covert approach, fighting terror with terror. More surgical, paving the way for actual regime change. Did we really identify opposition leaders who could turn Iran around? Because the real objective is to make Iran a modern, healthy, striving democratic country, not blow it up to remove the cancer. This is a lot harder, I know. You have to combine statecraft with spycraft and a war of assassination and internal aggression while strengthening native opposition might not even be doable.

You might start by fighting the guard incrementally so they don't go out and mass kill their own people. Get them off balance and not sure who is doing what. Start removing their everyday fighters here and there, make them afraid for their families, and girlfriends, turn some and get inside, sow mistrust. Just the kind of immoral stuff they do, but with a moral goal. Nothing more unsettling than people just disappearing. How would they like being on the other end of the hostage game? Start grabbing and dumping a few head terrorists in The Hague, put them on trial, televised everywhere. Lots of was to destabilize the governing class.

Respect Iran as a civilization by helping to set it free. Sounds too idealistic. We have tried some of this stuff already. But did not try hard enough, IMO.

The Israelis would be key. And an alliance of the world's best intel and special force nations. Let the US station the navy on Iran's doorstep to remind them of the big stick. But win from within, keep American prestige intact.

Netanyahu is the fly in the ointment. He may be fighting terror, but somewhere down inside he is fighting not to appear in court on corruption charges as well.

If you really want regime change in Iran, maybe you should get JD Vance to go over there, shake the leadership's hands and give them his full backing.

After all, it just worked in Hungary.

He did write a famous book and went to an elite university. But he is not in charge of anything. He delivers words, leaves.

+1 Noggin and also LOL!!

Tort,

We really don't know all that is happening, nor all intel used.

I believe the Guard should have been hit harder, but do we know how hard they have been hit?

We know our forces can go in and get out, even when the Iranians knew we would and pretty much where. So why not some quick ops in on groups of isolated Iranian guard. A little Marion action. Make them fear to be isolated. Also would free up the countryside some.

I'm really not adverse to placing the relatives of Iranian leaders over here on tankers and cargo ships going through the Strait. We don't harm them. They get a nice scenic ship ride. Well as long as the Iranians let them.

Actually a lot of things I'd do. But they don't ask me. (Although I do send emails. 😉).

Iran negotiates like every despot in the ME does. They talk loud with loads of braggadocio, until the day they collapse. "Baghdad Bob" syndrome. Until you find their leaders hiding in a hole. (Right Sadam?).

I have wanted this since the embassy hostages. Yes I do blame Carter for all this. A spineless, clueless weakling in my opinion. It also personal for me. I have no love for those in charge there, the ones who put them in charge and anyone who shows support for them in any way.

Grattan, Noggin

At least this gentleman is honest about the reason for his views. His hate of one man, overrides all other concerns.

"I Don't want Iran to lose if it means Trump wins.
@TomFriedman
of
@NYTimes
really wants "to see Iran defeated militarily because this regime is a terrible regime for its people and the region," but on CNN's
@Smerconish
he fretted "the problem is I really don't want to see Bibi Netanyahu or Donald Trump politically strengthened by this war because they are too awful human beings. They are both engaged in anti-democratic projects in their own countries. They're both alleged crooks. They are terrible, terrible people doing terrible things to America's standing in the world and Israel's standing in the world."
"

Subject: Brent Baker 🇺🇲🇺🇦 🇮🇱 on X: "Don't want Iran to lose if it means Trump wins. @TomFriedman of @NYTimes really wants "to see Iran defeated militarily because this regime is a terrible regime for its people and the region," but on CNN's @Smerconish he fretted "the problem is I really don't want to see Bibi t.co/rgPngGXkGc / X


link

Tort some examples just out:

"36 minutes ago
BREAKING NEWS
More than 80 oil and gas facilities damaged in Iran war, IEA chief says

More than 80 oil and gas facilities, including production sites, terminals and refineries, have been damaged by the war with Iran, the head of the International Energy Agency said."

And

"34 ships transited Strait of Hormuz on Sunday"

When asked about how the US would get Iran back into talks, Trump replied: "Oh, I don't know, I don't care whether they come back or not. If they don't come back, I have no problem with that either. Their army is destroyed. Their missiles are largely depleted. Their ability to produce missiles and drones is largely wiped out. We have acted very considerately. We haven't destroyed many of their bridges. We only destroyed one, and that was only because they went back on their word and broke their promise. And remember, their promise was to open the Strait of Hormuz. But they didn't do it."

SB, I've said he is much nicer than me.

I've heard he even offered to give the "new" Ayatollah a glass bottomed ship. At our expense, no less!

So that the Ayatollah can sail out and view the Iranian fleet. 😉

I had heard Trump say that Iran was begging for a new deal today. But didn't post it. But since this is CBS, I will.

"Iran, US still in touch after failed talks in Islamabad – CBS
2 hours ago

Engagement between Tehran and Washington has continued since the failure of the first round of Islamabad talks over the weekend, CBS News reported on Monday citing officials.

There is "forward motion on trying to get to an agreement," the report added citing one official."

Not a big fan of "unnamed sources" myself.

On social media, Pres. Trump wrote, "Iran's navy is laying on the bottom of the sea."
link

This concerns me greatly. Clearly, Trump has incorrectly used a transitive verb, "laying" when he should have used an intransitive verb – "lying".

There's a joke here but I'll leave it your imagination.

Trump deletes post with AI image of himself as Christ-like figure after outcry

link

Netanyahu sabotaged the negotiations: 21 hours of talks ended without result

link

Armand

No matter, they ARE at the bottom of the sea, whatever position they are in. ☠️👍

We should not take to much stock in this particular result on their navy. As a playing piece in the war it was a minor factor, small in number and no capital ships, likely to turn tail in a confrontation.

The ability of Iran's ruling class to wage conventional warfare against the US was limited. They are smart, focus on other ways to make trouble. Proxy forces, suicide bombers and other terrorist tactics, long range weapons against civilian targets that are harder to defend. They know that the perception that they have nukes, or are close, works as well having them in terms of leverage. There are no cease fires or peace agreements they will actually honor.

They will utilize the recent language of the POTUS, some of which sounds like stuff they might say, to motivate popular support in Iran and weaken internal opposition. A leader who threatens to wipe out your civilization is not as as likely to be seen as some on who is helping to free you from oppression. Propaganda 101 …this a gift they will use to keep their people focused on the US as the mortal enemy of their way of life.

Tort my friend, I think you have sort of a blind spot.

We are dealing with a radical fundamentalist Islamic state. A state that is furthermore being controlled by a messianic death cult ("Twelver Ja'afari Shia Islam"), which they have radicalized to the offensive.

This leadership does not need more justification for what they did or will do.
They believe they have all the justification necessary from the writings in their holy books. The same reasons they have used since the 600's.

You are not dealing with the U.S., Russia or China where things said would matter. Trump talks like they do.

With this type of leadership, you are only working for a lull in their great crusade against the infidels.

You beat them down. They regroup and eventually start again when they perceive weakness in you and or strength in themselves.

It has been like this since they came out of the desert in 600s.

No, as I've explained before, you cannot trust what they say, they practice Al-Taqiyya. Furthermore, they believe we do the same, that is their justification for doing so.

You can only beat them down, and hope for a change in leadership.

One should really go out and read their beliefs and the areas of their holy books they use for justification.

They don't see any of us as better than the other. Black, white, liberal, conservative, gay or straight. We are all infidels in their eyes.👀

One more thing Tory,

They DO want to end our civilization.

Could be…I have met a couple of Iranians here who abhor their country's leadership and say they are not alone. But that's no proof of anything. I should learn more about the extent across their population of these views.

I agree Tort. The threat of Iran was never it's navy or that they were ready to invade other countries. Big whoop we destroyed their navy, did anyone thing we couldn't? The threat is terrorism and their obtaining a nuke. After this is all done, they will still be exporting terrorism and, so far, they still have their enriched uranium. So, not exactly a whopping success for the US. Not to forget no regime change either.

Grattan

even those controlling the banking in Iran say it will be 12 years at best for them to get back to a semblance of normality.

That is assuming it does not get worse, trade opens up again and money flows and if frozen assets are released.

Other than Hezbollah, their other proxies have either not gotten involved or only very limitedly involved. (Hezbollah is paying the price). Their proxies are or have taken a beating. Iran cannot support them either monetarily or with physical assets. How could they, when they are trying to defend themselves?

I have printed all the statistics on the monetary costs.

You don't build a navy or an Air Force unless you plan on using them. True? The Air Force is on the ground in pieces. The Navy under the sea in pieces.

Top level leadership is decimated.

They showed us the distance of their current longest range missiles.

Even if the nuclear program is not currently fully destroyed, it is buried quite deeply.

Same with the dust.

We and Israel control Iranian air space. Do you honestly believe that the minute they start attempting to dig them up, or rebuild, both our countries would simply NOT bury them again?

Same with any new leadership that was exposed if they tried rebuilding. The Israelis are quite good at it. Ask the old Ayatollah. Oh! You can't. ☠️

Come on!

So at best they become a terrorist dog, missing a lot of teeth now.

This was long overdue and if one were honest, a positive. But I know there are too many who can never admit it.

"What about the Strait?!"

What about it?

I think it will soon reopen. But if not soon, not that far in the future.

Why, because others need it to be. Much much much worse than we do. Check out Ireland the last week. That is a microcosm and not near as hit hard as others are.

Obviously the market believes so. If you watch that sort of thing.

You and others see this as a disaster.

For me the disaster was letting over 20 million illegals into our country and then fighting to keep them here. Allowing things like this to happen to actual citizens in our country.

Watch it if you dare. I doubt you do.

This is what they are protecting! Not you and me.

link

If that is not enough. I can fill the page with more. There are at least 2 or more a daily in the news feeds.

Not to mention the monetary cost.

This just happens to be one of those from Haiti. The ones the MSM got so upset with Trump about.

Thats a hammer by the way, not even a gun. Not that the woman would ever know it.

Are these the people you and others want back in charge again?
The open borders, more crime?

Yes! What an evil and horrible man! To wish good for Iran. Is there no end to his evil! 🤬

😏

"Vance said today that Trump "wants to make the grand bargain," on Iran, and is promising economic success to the isolated country.

"He doesn't want to make like a small deal. He wants to make the grand bargain," Vance said at a Turning Point USA event in Georgia today.

"In Pakistan, we made a ton of progress," Vance said of negotiations this weekend that failed to produce a final agreement.

"But the reason why the deal is not yet done is because the president, he really wants a deal where Iran doesn't have a nuclear weapon, Iran is not state-sponsoring terrorism — but also, the people of Iran can thrive and prosper and join the world economy," Vance said.

Vance described the proposal being put forth as one that could normalize economic ties with Iran.

"He's saying, if you guys commit to not having a nuclear weapon, we are going to make Iran thrive, we're going to make it economically prosperous and we're going to invite the Iranian people into the world economy," Vance said.

"And that's the kind of Trumpian grand bargain that the president has put on the table," he said.

Vance also suggested the negotiations would continue.

"We're going to keep on negotiating and try and make it happen, because it would be great for the world, it would be great for our country, it'd be great for everybody," Vance said.

Vance also noted that the meeting in Islamabad was unique in allowing officials of such high positions in both the U.S. and Iranian government to meet in person for the first time.

"We had never, the United States had never had meetings at that level with the Iranian government in 49 years, like it's a meeting that had never before happened, not Democrat, not Republican," he said. "We had never had a meeting like that, where you have, you know, the person who's effectively running the country in Iran sitting across from the vice president of the United States. That had never happened."

He added, "I know though the president of the United States told us to go out there and negotiate in good faith. That's what we did. That's what we're going to keep on doing."
"

That whole Venezuela thing, well it might have benefited all of us after all.

"Venezuelan oil imports helping ease US fuel prices amid Iran war – Chevron

Chevron said on Tuesday increased imports of Venezuelan crude are helping ease fuel prices for US consumers as the war with Iran tightens global supply, CBS News reported.

Andrew Walz, the company's head of global refining, said Chevron is running its Mississippi refinery at full capacity to process the crude and boost output.

"This ship is lowering prices in America because we have access to a new supply point that we didn't have previously," he said.

Chevron has stepped up imports of Venezuelan oil, and it's helping ease fuel prices for U.S. consumers, according to a senior executive with the energy giant. t.co/2PPn4AAnoi
— CBS News (@CBSNews) April 14, 2026"

OVI +1

SBm +1

On social media, Pres. Trump wrote, "Iran's navy is laying on the bottom of the sea."

Classic TDS … he spelled something wrong. BTW – there is a war going and Iran is getting its butts kicked.

The threat of Iran was never it's navy or that they were ready

Did not the IRGCN lay mines with those ships/boats ?

Could not they have turned their little boats Waterborne IEDs ? They have done that before …

So mitigating the threat from the IRGCN was part of attriting Iran's total military assets.

Big whoop we destroyed their navy, did anyone thing we couldn't?

Yes we destroyed an enemy's naval assets. In a critical location, i.e. the Persian Gulf

The threat is terrorism and their obtaining a nuke. After this is all done, they will still be exporting terrorism and, so far, they still have their enriched uranium.

By significantly reducing their ability to produce/deploy nukes by about 90+% … That is a big deal …

AFAIK they are too busy trying not to die to be giving any support to any other islamists… Whom many of them are dead or dying …

They DO want to end our civilization.

Yes that is the bottom line … To doubt these islamists fanatics especially with WMDs is not only ignorant of the facts. But denying the reality of this clear and present danger doesn't make it any less destructive.

So, not exactly a whopping success for the US.

I'm going to have to call that assessment as totally incorrect.

Not to forget no regime change either.

Is the war actually over ? No … As there is a good chance that there certainly will a regime change … Wait …

Legion +1

According to Maj. Gen. Ali Abdollahi of the IRGC, or "Death Wish" as he is now known to his friends. ☠️

"The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps threatened to block shipping beyond the Strait of Hormuz if the U.S. continues its blockade on Iranian ports Wednesday.

IRGC leader Maj. Gen. Ali Abdollahi said Iranian forces would attempt to block "any exports or imports to continue in the Persian Gulf, the Sea of Oman, and the Red Sea."

Abdollahi said any move by the U.S. to create "insecurity" for Iranian shipping vessels would "constitute a prelude to a violation of the ceasefire."
"

But "Wait!" You say.

"Wouldn't that be against International Law!? 😱"

Well of course.

Anyone have a line on when greta Thunberg and her group plan on making a pilgrimage to an Iranian port to save the regime, and try and be relevant in some way? 😏

CNN:

"Why are some ships going through the Strait of Hormuz during a blockade?

Analysis by Brad Lendon, CNN senior global military affairs reporter

Updated: 3:23 AM EDT, Wed April 15, 2026

Source: CNN

The United States' blockade of Iranian ports has been "fully implemented" and put a halt to most of Tehran's economic activity in just a day and a half, the head of US Central Command said Wednesday.

"An estimated 90% of Iran's economy is fueled by international trade by sea. In less than 36 hours since the blockade was implemented, US forces have completely halted all economic trade going into and out of Iran by sea," Adm. Brad Cooper said in a statement on social media.

US Central Command (CENTCOM) said earlier no vessels have breached the blockade since its implementation.

At the same time, reports are emerging of some commercial traffic transiting the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic chokepoint between Iran and Oman through which 20% of the world's oil exports and 80% of Iran's oil exports travel.

But that commercial traffic doesn't automatically negate Cooper's claim.

Two key points:

Analysts say modern technology allows blockade enforcement at great distances.

"(The US doesn't) have to put ships in the Persian Gulf to blockade Iran," said Carl Schuster, a former US Navy captain.

He noted the 12+ ships CENTCOM says are on blockade duty. Most, if not all, of them are outside the strait. They can carry sophisticated tracking and reconnaissance gear linked to air and space systems.

And at least in the early days of this blockade, oil tankers aren't going to get far. A fully laden tanker may travel at less than 20 mph. That's not much faster than the speed of an average bicycle rider.

The US Navy also has the size and scope to pursue any ship getting outside of the Persian Gulf for weeks, anywhere in the world.

"The US blockade on Iranian ports does not have a defined geographic boundary, and the United States can interdict vessels almost anywhere in international waters until they arrive at their final port," the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said Tuesday.

Earlier this year, as Washington put pressure on the regime of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela, US forces seized a Venezuelan tanker in the Indian Ocean, thousands of miles from its originating port.

"Be careful not to interpret (blockade) too literally as a physical interdiction of the strait itself," said Bjorn Hojgaard, CEO of ship management company Anglo-Eastern.

The ISW also noted the US did grant exceptions from its blockade to humanitarian shipments, and allowed an undetermined "grace period" for neutral ships in Iranian ports to leave.

Six ships that may have been attempting to beat the blockade were stopped, and turned around at the direction of US forces, according to a CENTCOM statement Tuesday.

Meanwhile, CENTCOM said it was employing more than a dozen warships, over 100 aircraft and more than 10,000 personnel in blockade enforcement.

Schuster, the former Navy captain, gave a breakdown of roles for the vessels CENTCOM said were part of the blockade.

Schuster said the makeup of that force, much of it operating well back from the Strait of Hormuz and the Iranian coast, leaves Tehran with limited options to respond.

The small attack boats of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) navy are designed for operating in the close confines of the strait and the Persian Gulf, not the open waters of the Arabian Sea and beyond.

Iran likely retains some ballistic and anti-ship cruise missiles despite weeks of US aerial bombardment of the country. But even when they had those in larger numbers, none are known to have hit any US warships operating in the Arabian Sea.

US President Donald Trump said last month that Iran had fired 101 missiles at the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln, but all of them were taken out."

For those who still believe Iran's leadership has not been hurt and that any one person or group are in charge:

"41 minutes ago
Iranian minister says internet restrictions beyond cabinet's power

Iran's science minister says the country's communications ministry is facing "considerations beyond its authority" over ongoing internet restrictions, despite repeated contacts between the two ministries.

Speaking on Wednesday, he said his office had held numerous discussions with the communications ministry about restoring connectivity.

He warned that education and technological research cannot function without internet access."

The Iran War Is Giving China Time, Russia Money, And North Korea An Opening

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Armand

Tango when Iran is done. I'll tell a few things that will shock you about China and the future and maybe NK.

As to Russia, well while the US is preoccupied, if the world is still concerned about them.. which based on TMP, the media and politicians, does not seem to be the case… but if so, maybe they could combine their navies and blockade Russia?

As we can't be everywhere.
How would that go? Thoughts?

Yes I know, silly. Like Europe sending troops into the Ukraine.

Why is it silly?
Because of course, Russia has nukes.

Now what the world be like if a radical fundamentalist Islamic nation like Iran had them? Hint hint. 😉

But even without the conflict in Iran, Russia was bringing in money… even from the EU and since the get go.

Honestly most of the media, politicians and the world seem to have lost interest in the conflict.

Seems more dangerous than Iran.

Wait, we were telling them we would wipe out their whole civilization, but the Vance negotiations were a stepping stone to a grand bargain with the Iranian people?

OVI +1

we were telling them we would wipe out their whole civilization,

Yes that is all these 7th Century islamic fanatics understand. Most Iranians still see what horrible excuses for humans this islamist regime is. They are threatening to execute more of their own population… again …

I'm pretty sure 80%+ want these religious radicals gone …

Anyone who does not see or understand that this regime is as usual trying to lie, cheat, obfuscate, etc. to buy time. They still want to continue with their nuclear quest.

Fortunately, the Israels say they will not stop their campaign to destroying this radical group until they fall. The IDF is there on the ground. They will not let these lunatics continue to be a threat …

Not possible! Radical fundamentalist Islamic terrorists would NEVER purposely endanger children! Right?!

"The Israel Defense Forces said it uncovered more than 130 weapons belonging to the terrorist group Hezbollah inside a school in southern Lebanon.

The firearms found in the area of Bint Jbeil included "Kalashnikov rifles, pistols, and additional weapons," it said.

"Alongside the weapons, the troops also found Hezbollah flags and other terrorist organization insignia. The forces confiscated the weapons and continued operations to search the area and clear it of terrorists," the IDF added.

Hezbollah is aligned with Iran, and Israel has been targeting the terrorist group since the beginning of Operation Roaring Lion.

"The Hezbollah terrorist organization systematically exploits the civilian population in Lebanon in order to carry out terrorist attacks against Israeli civilians and IDF troops," the IDF also said."

Meanwhile, Xi is still in a power struggle with other elements of the CCP and factions of the PLA. The economic news is grim, their housing market continues to implode wiping out the savings of the Chinese middle class, the CCP is cracking down on capital flight and the Chinese banks are all pretending they don't owe each other trillions in debt swaps they can't cover. In short, Xi may feel the need to pull the trigger on Taiwan to rally the country around him and use war as cover for a deep purge of his rivals.

Trump is removing Chinese assets from play, and shifting US power to the Pacific to get ready to fend off China. That's why the US has been so adamant for Europe to step up and shoulder the primary defense burden against Russia. And that's why Iran is being removed as a distractionnary Chinese threat AND having its nuke program destroyed as thoroughly as possible (plus the day Iran is confirmed to have The Bomb is the day Israel turns Tehran into a sea of glass – and we don't want that).

Well a ceasefire was brokered in Lebanon. We will see if it lasts. But the government in Lebanon is fed up with Hezbollah.

A good reminder of who the Iranian regime is, and our history with them: fb.watch/GwW78FhIxx

More.

Subject: Surgeon calls Elizabeth Banks a 'hypocrite' over silence on Iran abuses


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But I will say: What did "Mohammed average" expect they we're going to get when they put a radical fundamentalist Muslim regime in power, mired in the middle ages and with a middle ages belief system?

It is hard to feel too sorry for them. Sometimes you just have to accept responsibility for stupidity.

So again, I get the fanatic threat as you know, but my question was in only a couple of days we went from wiping out their civilization to this.

From yahoo news:
Vance also said Trump is not interested in a "small deal," according to The Times of Israel.
"We're going to make it economically prosperous, and we're going to invite the Iranian people into the world economy in a way they haven't been in my entire life," he said.

This reminds me of when Pee Wee Herman fell off his bike and jumped up and announced "I meant to do that!" There is a credibility issue with the stream of rhetoric. If you want to really be Teddy Roosevelt, you should learn to "walk softly"…once you use the big stick and announce certain doom, who will believe you now want to lend a hand? I known some say this is just more cleverness but I don't get it.

Tort,

I've heard it described as how he makes deals or a negotiating tactic. I've heard it's part of his "art of the deal". Polar Extremes.

One minute he hates a leader or politician, the next they are best friends.

He is going to destroy you and then build you into a trusted friend and trading partner.

I know you cannot understand him if you are trying to understand him as a politician. He's not.

Nor can you understand him if you're trying to as a Washington insider. He is not.

He is not cultured. He is not tactful. He is not polished.

He is vindictive if crossed or he believes you have crossed him. But can easily bring you back into the fold if you attempt to take the first step back.

The exception is if you make it personal to his family. Much like a mafia Don then.

He is an egoist. A huge egoist. Which really annoys and upsets some.

He says things that you wish had stayed in his mouth and with no tact whatsoever. Again really pissing some off.

So I'm saying I guess, you won't understand him or what his ultimate game may actually be. Especially if you're trying to do so through the prism of a politician.

He is not predictable, which many politicians of other countries have failed to understand and has proven bad for their decision making.

No help, I know. 😉

I judge him based on if the country and myself are better for his decisions and ultimately stronger.

So far, I say yes.

I know only a few of us here, see a pattern to his foreign policy moves so far. The media and many politicians call them deranged and erratic.

They are not, even going back to the whole invasion rhetoric of Canada, Greenland and Panama, which obviously was never planned (extremes remember).

Think Venezuela and the oceanic drug war. Remember all the doom talk about that move and what a disaster it was? How is that oil looking now? We are so much better off here oil wise than anywhere else that was dependent on ME oil but especially Iranian. (They have gas lines in China.😉).

Add the Cuba rhetoric.

Limiting the overextension of U.S. resources abroad.

The Ukrainian materials deals.
Wanting so badly that Russian/ukrainian peace deal.

A More centralized military. Not spread all over the globe.

Think essential manufacturing and resource availabilities either back on US soil or much closer to our shores. (Think semiconductors and rare earth)

Add Iran and the Middle East in general getting much more attention than Europe. (Did You happen to see an African country offering us a base there?).

Do you think the U.S. can win a conventional war for Taiwan in the Chinese home seas?

What is the main reason Taiwan is needed worldwide?

But i don't want to get into a discussion of Taiwan now.

So take all that into consideration and think one name, China.

And I believe this is only a microcosm of what is in play. How much further would we be if the other party and courts were not playing partisan politics.

I know no one who hates him will agree with this. But they never will. But my opinion anyway.

Tort, this was for you and I'm not going to spend hours debating this with others. 😉

Iran's Regime Has Changed—for the Worse

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Armand

+1 35th, many good points and thank you. I get that unpredictability can be a tactic. I do have a hard time seeing it. For all his personal issues, I do not want him to fail here, too much at stake. I am concerned about some of his speech during public appearances. The job is not easy, and like it or not, he is not popular, which may be tough for him. But he is still the POTUS. Although I am against the arch and the ballroom – too continental for America!

OVI +1

SBm +1

I get the fanatic threat as you know, but my question was in only a couple of days we went from wiping out their civilization to this.

I'm not sure you and others here do understand. You can't talk to them reasonably, logically, etc. They are religious ideologs.

which obviously was never planned (extremes remember).

Again, the US military as OPLANs for many, many locations, events, etc. all over on the planet …