"So does the Iranian regime finally fall THIS TIME?" Topic

US to Launch Ground Invasion of Iran… Without a Plan

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How the War with Iran Ends

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Blocking Iran's Other Option: A Plutonium Bomb

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Iran Is Losing Its Grip On Iraqi Militias

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Armand

US to Launch Ground Invasion of Iran… Without a Plan

Really ? Stop believing everything you read. Your record for being accurate is dismal.

The US has not done a ground invasion and won't in any numbers, if ever. And I guarantee you the US does not do anything without a plan.

Why would you believe any of this crap you often post ?

Tango +1

Sidebar …

Drones I saw a system online that can be carried by troops, about the size of a red brick. That alerts the wearer to incoming drones. And electronically fries(?) the drones' electronics. That would be a big improvement.

Plus our M109A7 155 SPFA fires an anti-drone round. Not really sure how that works. Still looking for some good unclas intel. But has I have said elsewhere etc. With any system there is a countermeasure. E.g. AT and ADA vs Tanks and Aircraft … The same is coming about with drones.

There are sooo many more here. 😡

"U.S. Federal Agents Arrest Relatives of Deceased Iranian Commander

Binance News
1h
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Verified Binance official account
The U.S. Department of State announced on April 4 that federal agents arrested the niece and grandniece of the late Qasem Soleimani, a commander of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force, in the United States on Friday. According to BlockBeats, the arrests were carried out by federal authorities, although further details regarding the charges or circumstances were not disclosed."

"As of April 4, 2026, several children and relatives of current and former Iranian regime leaders are reported to be living, studying, or working in the United States. However, recent U.S. government actions have led to the detention or deportation of some of these individuals.

The following list identifies specific relatives of Iranian officials reported to be in the U.S. or recently removed:

Current or Recent Residents in the U.S.

Leila Khatami: Daughter of former Iranian President Mohammad Khatami. She is a mathematics professor at Union College in New York.

Eissa Hashemi: Son of Masoumeh Ebtekar (a former Iranian Vice President and spokesperson for the 1979 hostage-takers). He is reported to be an associate professor at the Chicago School in Los Angeles.

Mahdi Zarif: Son of former Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif. Reports indicate he has lived in Manhattan; his father has stated his children hold U.S. citizenship by birth.

Ehsan Nobakht: Son of Ali Nobakht (former deputy health minister) and nephew of Mohammad Bagher Nobakht (former Vice President). He is an associate professor at George Washington University.

Zeinab Hajjarian: Daughter of Saeed Hajjarian (former advisor). She holds a faculty position at the University of Massachusetts Lowell.

Zahra Mohaghegh Damad: Relative of prominent clerics, reported to be faculty at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign.

Ali and Maryam Fereydoun: Children of Hossein Fereydoun (brother of former President Hassan Rouhani). They have been reported to reside in the U.S."

Just the tip of the iceberg, I am sure.

We have arrested and deported at least 14 more since the conflict started.

Having these and so many others here. Well as Forrest Gump said and as relates to those who allowed them in:

"Stupid is as stupid does"

Yesterday I saw a former IDF Spec Ops Officer say something like I had posted a number of times before. I'm not saying I'm a guru, etc. But with my training and experience, study of history, etc. I think anyone will a reasonable study of history or served in certain positions would understand what is being said and by not only me …

I posted this before, but the former IDF officer said very similar …

Wipe out any assets of the IRGC, Basij. Including leadership, launch positions with weapons in battery, supply and manufacturing points …

The IDF Spec Ops and probably CIA, SF, etc. will do the classic insurgency mission. E.g. As was done in WWII in the PI, etc. And of course with the Montagnards, Hmong, Popular/Region forces, etc. being led by Spec Ops. And supported by US air and FA support.

We will see Iran's Kurds are most likely to be involved. The IDF is working with/on some of the locals who want to be free of islamic lunatics. I'd think this has been on going even before the first strikes. And has since escalated as Iran's leadership, IRGC, Basji, etc. have been significantly reduced.

Iran's actual military is not the IRGC and Basji. These two groups are likened to the SS and Gestapo. The Iran military will revolt being led by some non-regime GENs, etc. Supported with weapons, training, etc. by the IDF, CIA, etc. After Iran's islamists have suffered heavy losses. Then the leaders mostly from Iran's actual military [which is not IRGC, Basji, etc.] with IDF and US support will "be the boots on the ground", etc., etc.

With the 80% in Iran that hate their islamist gov't, elements, etc. They should be motivated enough with its own leaders, etc. to take on the remnants of the IRGC, Basji, etc. with their heavier military assets, e.g. AFVs, FA, etc. Along with the anti-gov't insurgents etc. They should best the gov't regime's assets.

We have no idea how far along this insurgency is along, how well it is prepared, trained, leaders chosen, etc., etc. However, with the record of the IDF Spec Ops, etc., if anyone can ferment, etc. this type of mission it is the IDF. And even the CIA/ US Spec Ops is probably involved as well.

This is a lesson learned in Iraq. We will not deactivate the military and its leaders as happened in Iraq. We will work with those as had been eventually done in Iraq. But should have happened in Iraq.

Yes much work still to be done. To do anything else will just start the cycle all over again. A paradigm sometimes called, "Mowing the lawn", by the IDF.

An interim government will be put in place. With support by the actual Persians. And a government by the people will eventually become a reality.

Of course none of this will come to light until it is happening and ongoing …

I guess the IDF Spec Ops officer and I have similar training, etc. We understand the how this type of counterinsurgency, etc. works. But he has much, much more actual experience than I. And I was only an Army Infantry 0-3 …

But he and others made it clear [as I thought I mentioned(?)] … The anti-islamist/Free Persians who the IDF Spec Ops have been working with for a very long time. They have hacked into Iran's CCTV camera's, their computers, phones, C3, etc., etc. They have assets everywhere. They are tracking much of what is going on with Iran's islamists, IRGC, Basji, etc.

As I keep saying … we really don't know what is going on behind closed doors between the POTUS & Pentagon, the US and IDF, etc. So when I see posted here that the POTUS, SoW, JCS, etc. are jumping around, looks like they didn't plan well or they did not have a detailed plan at all. Their words and actions don't always make good sense, etc., etc.

Those who say that in the media, Congress and even here. May not understand how this all may work(?), etc., etc. Or just as concerning or even more so. Their comments are laced with negativity, bias, etc. plus extreme TDS.

GEN RET Jack Kean just said in an interview. That the US Military plans are clear and can be executed and are being done now. The GENs & ADMs have wargames this operation thoroughly for decades. They know how it is to be done. And are doing …

Those in Congress and the media who are openly and loudly saying this is a failure, etc., etc. The US population, etc. does not support this, etc. Iran's islamists hear this and think they can outlast the US. Believing without full civilian support and this fermented by the some in Congress and the media. They will survive the US/IDF campaign. Those in Congress and the media are in ed facto support of Iran's islamists.

The attrition of the islamists assets have to continue …

And anyone IMO who really knows anything about military ops of this type. Can see the US/IDF have done very, very well in this campaign. The ilsamists losses are massive vs. the very, very low losses of the US/IDF. Losses for this type of offensive ops should be much, much heavier. The anti-POTUS etc., naysayers scream the sky is falling, this op is doomed, etc. When a few aircraft are hit or destroyed, 6-7. When US casualties are remarkably low. Mostly WIA (300), few KIA (7) and now only one MIA. Which are very, very unfortunate. I stood in those ranks in my long-passed youth. And if I could I know and some of my Vet comrades would do it again.

Again, does anyone want fanatical islamists to get nukes ?

Or can control some of the world's critical oil resources.

Let them support islamic terrorism/jihadis worldwide.

Slaughter thousands of their own people. Along with all the losses the US and others have suffered from Iran's islamists over the decades …

This cannot go on … Iran's islamists are a clear and present danger. A huge threat … to all … But for the islamists who support and die for them … In large numbers…

The Iran War Is in America's Interests

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War in Iran: Views in the Strategist

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How Iranian Hackers Pose a Threat to U.S. Critical Infrastructure

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Armand

OVI +1

Tango +1

Seen this multiple times today. Just no confirmation yet. But lots of attacks on the capitol today.

"NEW: Fox's Mike Tobin reports "over 50 senior Iranian leaders were eliminated" in new U.S. attack on top officials who had been gathered together, which President Trump referenced on Truth Social"

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"Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the in' Strait, you crazy bastards, or you'll be living in Hell – JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah," US President Donald Trump said in a post on Truth Social on Sunday.
"

They should believe he means it.

"The next steps in the US military campaign against Iran will commit nearly its entire inventory of stealthy JASSM-ER cruise missile.."

Around 80% according to multiple sources.

But the leadership of Iran and the Guard, have always been A messianic death cult.

So who knows.

Palestinian "refugees" in Damascus. 🙄

Subject: قناة القدس on X: "سوريون يقتحمون السفارة الإماراتية في دمشق، ويرفعون العلم الفلسطيني فوقها، خلال تظاهرات داعمة لفلسطين وتطالب الدول العربية بالتحرك لنصرة الأسرى وفتح المسجد الأقصى. t.co/LIqZt47PBa / X


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He escaped once before. #2 man in IRGC

"Iran says the intelligence chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Majid Khademi, was killed in a US-Israeli strike on Monday morning"

"The chief of intelligence in Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has been killed in a strike, the IRGC announces.

Majid Khademi served as head of the Intelligence Protection Organization of the IRGC and the Intelligence Organization of the IRGC.

In a statement carried by the Tasnim news agency, the IRGC announces Khademi's death following an airstrike this morning."

Is there any surprise? 😏

Afghanistan, Iraqi Militias, Houthis, Nigerian (Boko Haram and ISWAP), Somalis, Hezbollah, Hamas…etc.

As someone posted in another thread.

"wretched hive of scum and villainy"

except in this case, wretched hives of radical fundamentalist Islamic scum and villainy.

"Iran embassy in Kabul says it is ready to receive financial aid from Afghans

The Islamic Republic's embassy in Kabul said it was ready to receive financial donations from Afghan citizens, saying the move came in response to what it described as repeated requests from Afghans to show support during the US-Israeli war on Iran.

The announcement comes amid growing attention over the reported presence inside Iran of Fatemiyoun, the Afghan Shiite militia long tied to the Islamic Republic, as well as Zeynabiyoun and Iraq's Popular Mobilization Forces.

Images published in recent days by Iranian state media appeared to show those groups inside Iran, prompting questions online about their role and the reason for their presence."

Are the Taliban the same people who were essentially created and financed by the US?

No Cuprum … the US financed the Mujahadeen to kill Russians as the Russian and Chicoms backed the North Koreans and VC/NVA. To kill Americans …

Payback is a muth'a … I.e. how many Americans were killed by Russian and Chicom support for their Communists bros in Korea and SE Asia ? The answer – Too many …

How many Russians and Chicoms were killed by the support from US forces ? The answer … not enough many would say …

The Taliban were a creation of Pakistan's ISI.

Some of the Muj ended up as Taliban. But many became or worked with AQ, and few other radical islamists groups/mobs…

Also …

I love CGI !

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Speaking about those Pals…

Russian Aggression Heightens American Costs in Iran

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Iran Uses Chinese AI Satellite Imagery to Target U.S. Military Bases and Equipment in Middle East

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Armand

Wonder how young they will let the "volunteers" be?

I guess they won't be able to later volunteer for the Army when they would have reached 18. 😏

"1 hour ago
Iran plans 'human chains' around power plants on Trump deadline

Iran plans 'human chains' around power plants on Trump deadline
Iran's deputy minister for youth affairs said a nationwide symbolic event will see young people form human chains around power plants across the country.

Alireza Rahimi said the initiative, titled "Iran's Youth Human Chain for a Bright Future," aims to demonstrate national solidarity and support the armed forces' actions against what officials describe as aggressors.

He said the event, organized with the participation of young people across the country, also seeks to convey a message from Iran's youth to the international community and protest what he called "war crimes" by the United States and Israel."

So what? They don't want to be bombed back to the Stone Age—and that's their right…
I don't understand why you're so happy? You understand that right now you're preparing a terrorist war for yourself that will last for decades… These children, raised under the bombs, will never forget this.

"You understand that right now you're preparing a terrorist war for yourself that will last for decades"

Since 79, we or Israel would know the difference?

Actually since 600, how would the world know the difference.

Happy about the use of children? No.

Just pointing out the type of a regime we are fighting against.

"Thank you for "volunteering" to form a circle around these buildings. Please step over here to have your chains pinned to the ground, or die".

35thOVI, in fact, you just don't understand another culture… However, I don't see the point in arguing about it.

I understand radical fundamentalist Islam. Not a culture, but A Messianic death cult.

There is never ever peace with it, only cycles of temporary reprieve from the next cycle of violence. Even the in the reprieves violence does not end, just smaller attacks (individual terrorist being just one example).

In fact we had one in Turkey today.

"On April 7, 2026, a terrorist shooting occurred outside the Israeli Consulate in Istanbul, Turkey. One gunman was killed and two others wounded in a shootout with Turkish police. Two police officers sustained minor injuries. The attackers, identified as having ties to an extremist group, were intercepted before entering the building."

Isis or al-Qaeda are believed to be responsible.

I am failing to see how destroying a country's economic capability and infrastructure (water, electricity, bridges etc), and threatening to wipe a whole civilization will not lead to conditions where groups such as ISIS and al-Queda thrive.
Also I don't see the point of the threats when we are told that regime change and opening up the Strait of Hormuz are not important to the US.

"to wipe a whole civilization"

This is Nazi level stupidity… but coming from religious nuts (to an heretical level) in the US holding public prayers in the White House, calling Trump the new Jesus and waiting for the rapture, who is really surprised?

Let's remember all the smart things that were said during the last few weeks:
Mar 3: "We won the war."

Mar 7: "We defeated Iran."

Mar 9: "We must attack Iran."

Mar 9: "The war is ending almost completely, and very beautifully."

Mar 11: "You never like to say too ⁠early you won. We won. In ​the first hour it was over."

Mar 12: "We did win, but we haven't won completely yet."

Mar 13: "We won the war."

Mar 14: "Please help us."

Mar 15: "If you don't help us, I will certainly remember it."

Mar 16: "Actually, we don't need any help at all."

Mar 16: "I was just testing to see who's listening to me."

Mar 16: "If NATO doesn't help, they will suffer something very bad."

Mar 17: "We neither need nor want NATO's help."

Mar 17: "I don't need Congressional approval to withdraw from NATO."

Mar 18: "Our allies must cooperate in reopening the Strait of Hormuz."

Mar 19: "US allies need to get a grip – step up and help open the Strait of Hormuz."

Mar 20: "NATO are cowards."

Mar 21: "The Strait of Hormuz must be protected by the countries that use it. We don't use it, we don't need to open it."

Mar 22: "This is the last time. I will give Iran 48 hours. Open the strait"

Mar 22: "Iran is Dead"

Mar 23: "We had very good and productive talks with Iran."

Mar 24: "We're making progress."

Mar 24: "[Iran] gave us a present and the ⁠present arrived today, and it was a very big present, ​worth a tremendous amount of money."

Mar 25: "They gave us a present and the present arrived today. And it was a very big present worth a tremendous amount of money. I'm not going to tell you what that present is, but it was a very significant prize."

Mar 26: "Make a deal, or we'll just keep blowing them away."

Mar 27: "We don't have to be there for NATO."

Mar 28: No major quote

Mar 29: Claimed talks were progressing

Mar 30: "Open the Strait of Hormuz immediately, or face devastating consequences."

Mar 31: Claimed a deal was "very close" and that Iran would "do the right thing"

Apr 1: "We'll see what happens very soon."

Apr 2: Repeated that a deal was likely, while warning of continued strikes if not

Apr 2: "The straight will open up naturally"

Apr 3: "Something big is going to happen."

Apr 4: Said Iran must comply "immediately" or face further consequences.

Apr 5: "Open the in' Strait, you crazy bastards, or you'll be living in Hell – JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah."

By the way, to the usual MAGA posters on this forum who are flood-posting every thread: no need to answer. Alea iacta est. In the coming months, we will see the worldwide ripples of energy shortages as oil-producing facilities across the Middle East are attacked. Sustaining damage that will take years to fix. 'Kyiv in three days' will look like a pleasant walk compared to 'Tehran in three days.'

Has there ever been, in American history, a POTUS who has made the kind of public pronouncements we heard on Easter Sunday and today regarding this level of threat. Certainly not the profanity, but the actual destruction of a whole civilization?
How many people in the WH and beyond must be working OT to explain all this to Putin, Xi, and our former allies?

I know the leaders in Iran have said and done horrendous things. I do not want America to sound like that from the top. There were other ways to deal with these fanatics short of this.

To threaten to wipe out an entire civilization of 93 Million people is abhorrent.

Does anyone really think their entire civilization will wiped out ? Come on … That is more posturing, saber rattling, etc. One has to remember who we are dealing with … a militant islamist death cult, bent on trying to start the "End Times"… Which to anyone with any sort of common sense is beyond ridiculous. But those worshipers of their version of islam are dead set on it.

So does anyone not suffering from TDS, lack of logic and reason, etc. Believe this is not just how one talks to troglodytes who understand nothing but forces, power, strength, etc. Anything less they see weakness … as was shown by the last POTUS and his Admin(?).

We all know that the only way to really wipe a whole civilization this large is with Nukes. The US has no intention to use WMDs of any sort.

And by listing everything the POTUS has said over the past few weeks and saying he is lying, etc. Still … still … have not figured out that is part of the overall disinformation campaign/deception plan, etc.

And it has nothing to do with MAGA … only if some don't understand the dynamics of how this POTUS/Admin works.

Again some in Congress and the media are just plain playing into their narrative and agenda …

No war crimes are committed if bridges, rail lines, power plants, etc. As long as the enemy is using those infrastructures. They lose their protected status. As does churches, mosques, etc. The intent was to spare non-combatants further suffering. However, the military's use/occupation, etc., of those pieces of structures. Makes them legitimate targets …

So those in Congress and the biased media once again are not just incorrect but plays into a paradigm that they are trying push. And some are buying this …

Again this is the level of madness this Islamofascism death cult. Continues to demonstrate. Iran's islamist media reported that 14 million of Iran's citizens have volunteered to surround those power plants, etc. to be human shields. To prevent the US and IDF from destroying those structures.

We saw Hamas do similar in Gaza. Using their people are meat shields. Not allowing them to get into a safer area. Then claiming the IDF was killing non-combatants…

Also more of Iran's Islamists leadership were killed by US & IDF strikes recently.

The POTUS, SecWar, etc. has made it clear, "Hell's coming to breakfast!" … It also sounds like part of psyops and an overall plan …

Kharg is taking hits from the US and IDF. Taking out military infrastructure and personnel, etc. Maybe prepping for an invasion … ?

Some who claim to know about military ops and history, etc. sometimes strains credibility …

Subject: Eric Daugherty on X: "🚨 JUST IN: The regime has flooded the White Bridge with a human chain OF CHILDREN in Ahvaz, Iran to send a message to President Trump THERE ARE CHILDREN HERE Those kids have NO IDEA what they are doing or why Further proof the regime needs obliteration t.co/7B96Oo5VVS / X


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As I wrote elsewhere. It is not a question of saber rattling or anything else. It is a question of should the president of the US, the leading democracy and supporter of freedom, the symbol of the American people, be saying such things at all? Enough with the blind support and excuses for the things Trump has said. He is president of the US and represents all Americans. Likewise his rant with profanity and praising Allah on Easter, the most sacred day for Christians was offensive. If one can't see this or agree with what he has been saying is wrong and shouldn't be said then you have TDS, not us.

"22 minutes ago
Iran's latest proposal 'a lot better than what US expected' – Axios

The last proposal Iran sent to the US on Monday "wasn't really what we wanted, but it was a lot better than we expected," Axios reported citing a US official.

Mediators have since worked with Tehran on amendments and redrafting, the report added citing an informed source."

Those who claim to be offended, are the same who are offended by everything he does.

How often can one continue to cry "wolf", before we cease to listen any longer. 😏

So let us take just the very prim, proper and very correct democrats.

"Several high-profile Democrats and party figures have used profanity or the phrase "F--- Trump" in public statements, especially following his return to office in 2025. While some incidents occurred during his first term (2017–2021), a recent trend shows an increase in such language among Democratic lawmakers.

Notable Incidents and Individuals

Rashida Tlaib (U.S. Representative, MI): Shortly after being sworn into office in January 2019, she told a crowd, "We're gonna go in there and we're gonna impeach the motherfer*".

Katie Porter (Former U.S. Representative): At the 2026 California Democratic Party state convention, Porter appeared on stage holding a sign that read "F— Trump" and led delegates in a chant to "kick Trump's a--".

Juliana Stratton (Lt. Governor, IL): In early 2026, her campaign released a television advertisement featuring supporters (including U.S. Senator Tammy Duckworth) repeatedly chanting "F* Trump, vote Juliana"**.

Mark Pocan (U.S. Representative, WI): At a February 2025 rally on Capitol Hill, Pocan addressed a cheering crowd by saying "F* Donald Trump and Elon Musk"**.

Donald Norcross (U.S. Representative, NJ): During the same February 2025 rally, Norcross stated, "I'm from Jersey so … I say 'f* Trump!'**".

Maxine Dexter (U.S. Representative, OR): Also at the February 2025 rally, Dexter told the crowd, "We have to f* Trump," later noting she was uncomfortable swearing in public.

Susie Lee (U.S. Representative, NV): In a 2026 social media post (which was later deleted), she used multiple profanities when referring to President Trump and the Supreme Court, writing that things were "[fing fed] up".

Beto O'Rourke (Former U.S. Representative): Following a shooting in El Paso in 2019, O'Rourke famously used the F-word when asked by a reporter about Trump's rhetoric, questioning "what the f---" people expected the president to do differently.

Tom Perez (Former DNC Chairman): In 2017, Perez used profanity at various rallies, stating that Trump "doesn't give a s***" about healthcare and calling the proposed budget a "sty budget*".

Other Democratic Figures Noted for Public Profanity
A 2025 analysis noted a spike in profanity among younger Democratic lawmakers and party officials:

Jasmine Crockett (U.S. Representative, TX): Frequently uses profanity in public statements and social media.

Maxwell Frost (U.S. Representative, FL): Identified as one of the most frequent "Democratic cussers" in recent years.

Eric Swalwell (U.S. Representative, CA): Also listed as a prolific user of profanity in political discourse since the 2024 election.

Ken Martin (DNC Chair): In March 2025, told President Trump to "Go to hell".

Chuck Schumer (U.S. Senator, NY): Stated the administration cannot "f--- around" regarding the release of specific government files"

But I know, they are NOT Trump. 🙄

Let us not forget all those in Hollywood and elsewhere who have wished or advocated his assassination or death.

Just the latest:

Subject: SNL Audience Cheers Joke About Trump Getting Assassinated, Lincoln Style


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But Trump is the "bad one".

My point is two fold. First, stop posturing. You cannot lead like this. It's not funny, and it puts more people everywhere in danger. It is a rallying point for every ME fanatic, already hanging in every terrorist locker room. It is not going to solve the crisis. This is not something America has ever said before. This kind rhetoric pumped out into the world sounds more like that of every bad guy we have ever fought. I get that he is frustrated. He is not alone.

Second, Crockett, etc. is not the POTUS nor the CinC, same for the others. These score cards have plenty of unpleasant people on both sides. But they have no finger on the nuclear launch button, do not command the world's greatest military. They cannot put boots on the ground in Iran. Both sides have said nasty things to each other, our civic discourse has collapsed into blamer culture and nicknames, cartoons, etc.

But that's not what I am concerned about here. Nobody in Iran, or most anywhere else, has ever heard of Crockett. It's the POTUS saying things that reach every corner of the globe.

Sorry Tort.
If people were not concerned about a man with dementia and or Alzheimer's with his finger on the trigger, I'm not concerned about Trump.

I've heard the vapid and ridiculous Nuclear talk on the MSM and people like Tucker today. Sorry, I'm not concerned.

No prob, 35th. That was not what I was trying to say. My point is the way a President speaks matters more than those other people who do not have such power. Most of the time, I know POTUS is not entirely serious with some of his comments and sense of humor, but in this case it went too far, IMO. He commands a mighty arsenal, wiping out a civilization is not something you say to the world.

I think we were all rightfully and seriously concerned about Biden in command. It raised related issues, but in a different way. He was clearly in trouble health-wise, in a way that raised concerns about ability and judgement at basic levels.

I understand. 🙂

He commands a mighty arsenal, wiping out a civilization is not something you say to the world.

You don't like his rhetoric, fine. Let's wait and see what happens. Btw, you know what absolutely WILL end Iranian civilization? If the Ayatollahs get The Bomb. With hours of confirmation Israel will implement a Sampson Option and TEN MILLION Iranians will die and the course of world history irrevocably altered. And that's the BEST case scenario -- worse is Israel is unable to prevent Iran's first use of nukes in which case Israel expends its nukes to glass EVERY ARAB CITY in the Middle East. That means Mecca and Tehran, Dubai and Damascus…BOOM gone, hundreds of millions dead and great likelihood of global civilization ending WW3.

Say -- why is this energy lacking about Ukraine? Ukraine, who we're paying to support, has conducted drone and missile strikes on Russian power plants, telecom nodes, bridges and rail lines, and attacked civil aviation airports and even sent drones into civilian apartment buildings. Why do you cheer that, but Trump threatens power plants and he's a "war criminal?" How about Zelensky -- war criminal?

Oh, maybe we don't have to find out…

Based on conversations with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir, of Pakistan, and wherein they requested that I hold off the destructive force being sent tonight to Iran, and subject to the Islamic Republic of Iran agreeing to the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz, I agree to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks. This will be a double sided CEASEFIRE! The reason for doing so is that we have already met and exceeded all Military objectives, and are very far along with a definitive Agreement concerning Longterm PEACE with Iran, and PEACE in the Middle East. We received a 10 point proposal from Iran, and believe it is a workable basis on which to negotiate. Almost all of the various points of past contention have been agreed to between the United States and Iran, but a two week period will allow the Agreement to be finalized and consummated. On behalf of the United States of America, as President, and also representing the Countries of the Middle East, it is an Honor to have this Longterm problem close to resolution. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP

North Korea keeping Iran at arm's length, reports Seoul

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Armand

No, this is not over. SB, we got no forces in Ukraine. And we got no deal on the Iranian nukes, not that I would trust them. They still have the uranium, control the straits, their leadership might as well be unchanged. Can't just leave them without getting what went to war for. This off ramp was a gift from Pakistan but it's not the one we should get in the end.

Will this last or not? Dunno. Will Israeli regime change bear fruit? I hope so, but am not holding my breath. Will the Kurds succeed in carving out an enclave? I hope so.

Depsite the ceasefire outcome, the reality is Trump's strikes inflicted serious damage on Iran's military in just a few weeks of intense fighting.

*Iran's air force is largely gone, with most planes, airbases, and communications systems destroyed, giving the U.S. and allies full air superiority.

*The national air defense system has been shattered — hundreds of sites and radars taken out early on, leaving Iran unable to effectively challenge incoming strikes.

*The navy is essentially wiped out, with over 150 vessels damaged or destroyed, including many warships and shipyards, rendering it combat ineffective and no longer a threat to shipping.

*Missile and drone capabilities took a heavy hit, with launch rates dropping sharply and hundreds of launchers, stockpiles, and production facilities destroyed or damaged. Defense industrial plants suffered major setbacks, with a large portion of missile, drone, and naval manufacturing sites struck, slowing any quick rebuild.

* Remaining known nuclear sites were smashed, their illegally 60% enriched Uranium buried under a mountain and their ability to reconsitute their nuclear weapons program set back by years.

*IRGC and Basij forces saw significant attrition too — multiple command centers, headquarters, and internal security bases were hit, resulting in thousands of fighters and mid-level commanders lost. On top of that, there was real leadership attrition, with numerous senior IRGC commanders, navy heads, intelligence chiefs, and other top military figures killed in targeted strikes.

Overall, Iran's ability to project power and threaten the region and support its proxies (Houthis, Hamas, Hezbollah and Iraqi Shiite Militias) has been badly degraded, even if the regime itself remains in place under new…new…new leadership. It has also been removed from play as a Chinese asset in case of war over Taiwan to divert US resources. China also lost Venezuela. So far Trump has effectively removed 2 of 3 of China's regional allies.

Oh, and with the fighting hopefully over, and Trump publicly and privately kicking them in the a$$, the "allies" may actually assemble a Straights of Hormuz security/escort force to "go get your own sh1t" as Trump so eloquently put it…and perhaps countries like the UK and Italy and others will realize the cost and resources needed to so that stuff and will once again resource their militaries appropriately and be more able to defend Europe with less of a US presence.

we got no forces in Ukraine.

Why the heck do we want US forces in Ukraine? If we can get a ceasefire in place, let Europe do that -- they keep promising "boots on the ground" when the fighting and danger has passed. Always AFTER the fighting is over, I note…

In answer to the question posed by this thread:
"So does the Iranian regime finally fall THIS TIME?"

It looks like a big "NO!" Epic fail.

SB has this correct. +1

As stated this is only a ceasefire. Nothing has ended yet.

If a final agreement is signed, and Iran goes back to their old ways…… then

Whoosh 💥 and repeat.
U.S. and Israel control the skies.

Added advantage, if rinse and repeat needed? More leaders above ground,
more targets out of bunkers.

I have said before, I have believed this was a deterrent conflict, the Israeli strategy of "mow the lawn".

"In answer to the question posed by this thread:
"So does the Iranian regime finally fall THIS TIME?"

It looks like a big "NO!" Epic fail."

I say: 🤔

To paraphrase old Billy C.. I guess it depends on what your definition of "regime change is". 😉

We know Ol' Ayatollah Ali Khamenei will never lead again and I doubt his cardboard son will either. Much of his family will see no more ceremonies again.☠️

Yes many leaders will never lead again. ☠️

"Nearly all senior military leadership was reported eliminated. This includes at least 40 top military commanders killed in the opening strikes, with the total number of confirmed senior officials killed reaching at least 70 across subsequent waves.

Key Institutional Heads: The strikes effectively wiped out the heads of most major defense and intelligence institutions, including:

Defense Ministry: Reports suggest the entire top leadership of the Defense Ministry was killed, including Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh.

IRGC & Navy: The Commander-in-Chief of the IRGC (Mohammad Pakpour), the IRGC Navy Commander (Alireza Tangsiri), and their respective intelligence chiefs have all been confirmed killed.

National Security: Both the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council (Ali Larijani) and the Secretary of the Iranian Defense Council (Ali Shamkhani) were eliminated."
☠️

We really don't know who will rise to leadership yet.

Verdict?
Not enough evidence for those who are truly objective to ascertain yet.

But Israel is not happy… 💥☠️

Iran won.
link
"Bloody but unbowed."

OVI +1

SBm +1

It looks like a big "NO!" Epic fail.

Continuing inaccurate, biased and ridiculous comments … The more that is said does not make it true … This is a cease fire … the war is not over. I'd not be surprised if Iran breaks the cease fire, long before the 2 weeks are up …

And many Senior Ret. Officers have said and I totally agree. This militant islamsic radical death cult cannot be trusted. History has demonstrated this all the time. They will try to buy time for whatever reasons. They are not getting support for China, etc.

Again the POTUS does not always do the expected. Didn't von Clausewitz and Sun Tzu say something about this.

The POTUS also resorts to a useful tactic/technique in diplomacy, business and war. Go in hard, as for more than you expect to get, escalate to deescalate …

I'd would much rather see the complete removal of this medieval regime. Which may still be in the works. And again I'll say it again we don't know what is going on behind the scenes. With modern tech information can be immediately transmitted to almost any location on the planet.

The USA's situation is made more challenging with there are strong left-wing, anti-American, islamists, communists, woke progressive, 5th columnists, etc. that will do say anything to thwart anything this POTUS and his Admin will do or try to do. For no other reason than they hate this POTUS, his Admin and anyone who thinks differently than they do.

And if some here have not noticed that includes some here … It is pretty clear who the "offenders" are …

f one can't see this or agree with what he has been saying is wrong and shouldn't be said then you have TDS, not us.

No again, some don't understand at all what the reality of the situation is, Realpolitik, what is at stake, etc. The top consideration is this is an islamic death cult, bent on starting the "End Times". So basically pretty much playing hardball is the only game in town. And with this POTUS and Admin they better wear a cup.

We saw what happened with other weak, feckless, denizens of the WH. And so did Iran. They will try to take advantage of the USA as they did the past. I.e. foolish incompetent leadership they totally treated as the useful dupes they were … They can't at this time …

How Pakistan helped secure a fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran

link

Iran's Security Dilemma in the Context of Great Power Rivalry in the Middle East

link

Armand

Anyone who thinks that "the Iranian people" wish to overthrow the Regime needs to adjust their medication.
link
No matter how much they might hate the ayatollahs, they aren't the ones who were bombing them.
After that bombing blitz, insane threats to "end their civilization", insults to their religion, they're going to embrace the West?
Did the Blitz make the British suddenly wish to become Nazis? Or did it harden their hatred?
How did "hearts and minds" work in Vietnam, when we were bombing and killing everyone wearing "black pajamas"?
Where was the popular uprising against Hitler, when we were bombing the hell out of them?

This campaign has destroyed any chance that "the people" will rise up.

Answer this question.
WHAT IF a terrorist cell bombed the White House? Would all the usual suspects suffering from TDS wish Trump dead, or would they howl for revenge?
Despite how stupid the TDS crowd may think him, a physical attack on him would unite us.
And it's exactly the same in Iran. No matter how much "the people" might hate the Regime, they have been attacked. Who gives a crap if "collateral damage" killed your cousin? Oh sure. It wasn't deliberate. Just unlucky on their part. 🙄
Anyone who seriously believed that the Iranian people wishing for the Regime to disappear are anything but a small minority are delusional. And that minority has seriously been diminished since the bombing began.

Imagine the fury on America's side if an Ayatollah was bragging about how they had taken out Trump, Vance, Johnson, Rubio, Hegseth, etc.
That's an imaginary mirror image of what is happening in Iran.

If ever there was any popular sympathy in Iran for overthrowing the mullahs, we blew it.
Oh, and their own brutal suppression of dissent should also be taken into account. Just like with Hungary in 1956, we cheered from the sidelines.

Only rumors from the Beltway. So far.
link
Hegseth allegedly on the way out.
From the link:

But the new leader, 56-year-old Mojtaba Khamenei, is the son of his predecessor, 86-year-old Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed at the start of the war and headed the death list Hegseth recited as proof of an historic triumph. What the Trump administration insists on calling regime change involves replacing the leader with someone 30 years younger who now has a personal vendetta.

For all the blustering about degrading the ayatollahs, everyone surviving has a personal vendetta.
Still think a regime change is in the cards? I'll have some of what you're smoking.