"So does the Iranian regime finally fall THIS TIME?" Topic

@incavart77

I could just as easily point to headlines saying everything is working perfectly—that's the nature of headlines. The issue is that headlines and summaries can support almost any narrative. They don't establish a defined objective or a condition for success.

Well, those headlines will stand out because on a global media basis the coverage is roughly 70% negative, 25% neutral/questioning and only 5% positive. Negativity and global fears dominate, sometimes with a minor caveat of "while the Iranian regime has been accused of…" followed by a litany of doom…and all the WORST EVER energy shock, environmental risk, human rights risk, social justice impact, economic impact, escalation risk, risk to International Law and every imaginable disaster. Except the risk of an Iranian apocalypse cult with nukes…

Dogtail

First I will point out that post had absolutely nothing to do with this topic. Just another, not even vailed attempt to attack the President of the United States.

Do you see we in the U.S. on TMP insult your leadership constantly, or your country? Constantly? Unless ours has been insulted first by a TMP poster (in which case you become fair game).

No. But many of you overseas make a bloody habit of it, daily. Multiple times a day.

Do you think we like your leadership? Your mostly leftist socialist societies? We've been sending our men and women over there since 1918? Why, because in two instances you just could not get along with each other. And for many years after that, to keep the perceived threat of another European nation from doing it all again.

Why do you all feel free to do so?
Because
Trump is insulting Europe? He treats you like inferiors? He treats you as not equals?

Well first off, take it up with him. Email the White House. Spend a euro and call it.

Bluntly, every major European power at one time or another treated the U.S. exactly the same way. Maybe with a dash more contempt. Some felt free to involve themselves in our politics. Supported our enemies. Aided and supported those who divided the country. Used subterfuge to lead us into war. Etc.

Why are you no longer in the top echelon of powers in the world and whose fault is it? Ours? He#l no! Every one of you is responsible for that. You could NOT get along. You killed your own men and women. Wasted your money and materials. Brought down Kingdoms and Republics. On wars against each other.

Yes, he is not a nice man. He is not diplomatic. He's demanding you pay your share of the defense. He threw tariffs at you (you never threw tariffs at us before?).

But I could give litany of European leaders as nasty or worse.

Come back to us when he drives his panzers through Europe. His Guard into Russia. His longBowman into France. His troops wearing Pickelhaube into Belgium. Blowing bombs off in Belfast or London.

Then you might have a real beef.

@35thOVI
I am sorry if I hit a nerve with my two latest post, those were not meant to insult anybody.
I am back into painting napoleonics, so enjoy my silence.

Unless you really plan on backing these threats up, not sure I'd make this. I'm no expert on hitting nuclear power plants. Is there a way without causing Chernobyl type damage.

I know Iran came close to an Israeli one today.

Anyone with any actual knowledge about these?

"26 minutes ago
Trump threatens to ‘obliterate' Iran's power plants if Hormuz not reopened in 48 hours

US President Donald Trump issued a warning on Saturday that if Iran does not fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz "without threat" within 48 hours, Washington will "hit and obliterate" the country's power plants, starting with the largest.

Trump demanded Tehran restore safe passage through the vital oil waterway in a post on Truth Social."

Oh, so now we're demanding vig?

Everybody wants a piece of the action … you know that … we all do …

OVI +1

SBm +1

As we all know … Iran launched a pair of ICBMs on the island of Diego Garcia. In the middle of the Indian Ocean. A joint UK/US base is located there. One of Iran's ICBMs fell into the sea. And didn't come near the island. The other was shot down by US Air Defense systems.

A fact was now confirmed that Iran has missiles that have a 2500 mile range. Which means these ICBM can reach much farther then was known until know. There may have been some consideration that Iran has long range missiles than what we had seen previously.

This makes it even more important to make sure Iran will never be able to deploy these weapons with a nuclear payload. This longer range could hit deeper into West Europe. Possibly hitting parts of England … At this time the total number of these ICBMs Iran made has not been released. Or may not be accurately known at this time …

I think with Iran showing that it has these long-range missiles. May be a sign of desperation. As we see all the assets they have lost to US/IDF strikes. Leadership, equipment, personnel, supply and manufacturing locations have all be severely attritied. Will more on going …

For any popular uprising to be viable. One of the first of many things that must be accomplished is destruction of the enemy's leaders, personnel and equipment. To the point that these islamist forces will only have minimal effect to the insurgents. That is nothing new … it is almost SOP in this situation.

The question of imminent threat keeps being tossed around in Congress and media. Based on so many indicators, Iran's islamist leadership want to get nukes and use them on Israel and the US. Sooner if not later. They don't even try to obfuscate their intentions. IMO and many, many others we know their intent and know if only broadly their plans.

To say there was no imminent threat is ignoring the obvious. The 600lbs gorilla in the room. How could one not miss it. Unless there are some political or other unknown agendas, etc.

Important enough to risk fanatical islamists who want to get nukes. And frequently chant who their primary targets will be.

Plus the deaths of many American directly and indirectly to these lunatic islamists. As well as many other nations' lives. And the slaughter of 1000s upon 1000s of their own population.

So I don't see why some just don't see how important it is to remove these fanatics from the board.

What would be the result of not stopping these islamists from getting nukes ?

What will happen if they continuously support terrorists, e.g. Hamas, Hezbollah, etc. ?

What will happen to the 80+% of their population that has to live and die under these fanatical islamists ? The medieval barbaric ways they torture, rape, murder, etc. these people under their draconian boots. For even the simplest infractions or even none at all. The reports, stories, etc. are voluminous.

So why should anyone be against this important mission for not just stopping their quest for nukes, stopping their support of islamic terrorism, and stopping the slaughter of the Persian people.

Why would anyone even question this ?

Iraq Was the Warm-Up: Iran Is the Trap

link

WARDEN'S FIVE RINGS AND REGIME CHANGE IN IRAN

link

Armand

@Sbminisguy

Well, those headlines will stand out because on a global media basis the coverage is roughly 70% negative, 25% neutral/questioning and only 5% positive.

I'm not aware of any dataset that supports those percentages, and media tone varies widely by outlet and country. In any case, whether coverage is positive or negative doesn't establish a defined objective or condition for success; except that the negativity might be more criticism that there is no plan.

@35thOVI

I dont know that we should adopt the Israeli model but if the model is indeed recurring deterrence, then the question becomes what specific condition determines when deterrence has been achieved and when it has failed.

Otherwise it's just a very expensive open-ended cycle of action without a defined threshold and that is far too high risk a reality to perpetually deal with.

The Cold War wasn't purely "cold," but the deterrence framework was built around avoiding direct great-power conflict and maintaining defined boundaries. That's different from an open-ended campaign of direct strikes without a clearly defined end state.

Russia isn't communist—it hasn't been since the Soviet Union collapsed. It's an authoritarian system with a state-influenced capitalist economy, which is a different thing entirely.

As Captain Terrill said, "Doin' right ain't got no end". 😉

That sounds more like a justification for ongoing action than a definition of strategy. Even continuous efforts still require clear objectives and thresholds.

I do like that movie …

35thOVI, no war lasts forever. Nothing in this world lasts forever)))

Is Russia a communist country? I'd be happy if it were. But you're working diligently to ensure that Russia has no other choice—and I thank you very much for that.
And yes—the conflict in Ukraine was created, among other things, to hinder the development of Russia and Europe… Which, by the way, has been successfully accomplished.

Trump is ready to destroy power plants? Oh… So Iran's next strike will destroy power plants across the region… People there will die of thirst while desalination plants remain inactive. Sad… But balanced.

SBminisguy, how is the US better for the rest of the world than the theocracy in Iran? It's like the same penis, just in the other hand))) Sorry, but that's a crude male joke.
What difference does it make which of you supports wars and terrorists? Which of you bombs civilians? Do they pray differently? So what?
Don't blame Iran for the energy crisis. Until Israel and the US started bombing, there was no crisis.
Hearing about "international law" from a US official is pretty funny))) It was the US that destroyed it… replacing it with some vague "rules"…

I stand corrected on Russia by both of you. I should have remembered that change. But I won't blame it on getting old.

I knew the communist party is still quite large. Maybe the second largest party there now then?

I will always see Putin as communist.

Iran's Hormuz yuan play a direct hit on the petrodollar

link

If I understand correctly, the Japanese will pay in yuan:

link

There is no global blockade. There are Iranian sanctions against those who support the aggressors…

I can offer an alternative – pay in Russian rubles))) I think Iran won't mind, but China will get less…

35thOVI, alas, the party currently called "communist" in Russia is not. This is just a simulation and exploitation of nostalgia for the welfare state. And this "puppet theater" is rapidly losing support among the population.
I'm telling you – consider Russia a monarchy. Only the king here is not hereditary, but nominated by the oligarchy.

Putin is a communist? Ha-ha-ha… It's like Trump – a left-liberal))) I would say that the positions of Putin and Trump are close in many ways, only their interests and methods are different due to the different interests of the countries they lead and their personality types.

Assessment by Western experts of the situation of the Communist Party in Russia:
link

When you think in terms of the past, your place is in the past…

Caprum when I see Putin, he looks like Vladimir Lenin to me. Just sans beard and mustache.

I can offer to change or buy glasses)))

Iran's BIGGEST ATTACK On Israel, Arad City In Ruins; APOCALYPTIC Scenes After 100 Casualties

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After US F-35, Iran 'Downs' Israel's Prized F-16: Mojtaba's Air Dominance Stuns Trump & Netanyahu?

link

I'm not aware of any dataset that supports those percentages,

It will take you seconds to use your AI tool or browser of choice (which all use AI now) and search for: "Survey global media coverage of the Iran War and assess % favorable vs neutral vs unfavorable"

Google/Gemini:

"Global media coverage of the 2026 Iran War, initiated by U.S.-Israeli strikes, is heavily polarized. Coverage is largely unfavorable (approx. 50-60%) toward the action, emphasizing civilian casualties and instability, neutral (20-30%) in operational reporting, and favorable (10-20%) only within specific Israeli or hawkish U.S. media, focusing on security"

Grok:

Unfavorable/Negative (to US/Israel actions—critiquing as aggressive, illegal, escalatory, costly, or propagandistic): 60-75% (higher in international/non-Western media, public sentiment, and some polls/studies; dominant in outlets like Al Jazeera, critiques of Western bias).

Neutral/Analytical (factual reporting on events, impacts, without strong endorsement or condemnation): 15-25% (e.g., wire services, some BBC segments, military analyses focused on tactics/outcomes).

Favorable (justified as necessary defense, strategic success against threats): 10-20% (strongest in US pro-Trump/conservative outlets, some mainstream framing of precision/degradation of Iranian capabilities; rarely dominant globally)."

ChatGPT (which is programmtically left-biased according to a Stanford study):

Global media coverage of the Iran war isn't even close to balanced:

🟥 ~60% negative (focused on energy shock, food risk, escalation)
🟨 ~30% neutral (straight reporting, "both sides")
🟩 ~10% positive (limited deterrence/support framing)

Bottom line: the dominant narrative worldwide isn't "victory" or "justified"—it's disruption, risk, and fallout.

You can see that the media is dominantly negative and showing a clear bias towards specifically pro-failure for Trump and generally pro-failure for the US.

Enjoy!

Iran's BIGGEST ATTACK On Israel, Arad City In Ruins; APOCALYPTIC Scenes After 100 Casualties

How is one apartment building getting hit a "city in ruins" and "apocalyptic scenes"? The video itself says "dozens wounded" not 100 casualtie. Butm…if you're pro-failure for the US and Israel, even if the militant islamic leaders of Iran would slaughter every Hindu and other infidel they could, then you spin every Iranian action as the end of the world, as a US failure, as the war spinning out of control.

If there are any historical parallels here it's to the fall of Nazi Germany when then made more and more grand announcements of death to everyone, fired off every V1 and V2 they could at civilian targets for maxiumum vengeance terror before Allied air power could destroy them, and went on an internal killing spree to kill anybody who could be accused of being a mutineer, deserter or disloyal citizen. I hope we're seeing the death throes of a evil regime.

And now imagine the BBC leading with similar coverage to what we see them doing today.

"This is London. Bewildered Allied rescue workers rushed to a scene of utter carnage in Amsterdam as American and British forces seem unable to stop the deadly rain of futuristic German V1 and V2 "Wonder Weapons" which strike at will from German launchers. The embattled leader of Germany deplored the moral choices he is forced to make and said, "This Allied imperial aggression against German sovereignty will not go unpunished, so long as they continue to war against our people our unstoppable missiles will rain from the skies."

A confused President Roosevelt seemed stunned when asked about this by reporters, and unable to describe Allied plans to counter this deadly advanced technological threat.

One analyst noted that the Allies had no similar technology and quipped, "it's like we're bringing a slingshot to a machinegun fight!"

You don't need to read these headlines – they're clickbait.
Look at the facts: despite Israel's best efforts to conceal any effective Iranian strikes, information about them still leaks online. Conclusion: Israel's air defenses are weakened and are allowing Iranian strikes to pass.
Fact two: Dimon is an Israeli nuclear research center. If Iranian missiles reach their targets there (and this is Iran's response to the shelling of the Iranian nuclear power plant), there's no guarantee that the Israeli center won't be destroyed, with the corresponding consequences.
Fact three: Iran's air defenses are capable of actively resisting, despite the enemy's overwhelming superiority in any force or means.

Here are three facts that can be gleaned from this source.
And the headlines are garbage you can throw away…
Throw away your emotions and look at the facts. Don't accept other people's conclusions and analyses – make your own.

Trump needs a quick exit from this war – he is unlikely to achieve any greater benefits from this war. But here the situation has developed like in a joke:

"I caught a bear!
- Well, then drag him here!
- I can't! He won't let me…")))

Iran understands this and will not let him out of the war for as long as they can…

Panic broke out when the missiles pierced the iron dome! An investigation decision from the Israeli army:
link
Another fact: Israel has launched an investigation into why Iranian missiles, which Israeli air defenses had previously successfully destroyed, were able to penetrate their targets…
Conclusion: Israeli air defenses have weakened even around strategic targets…

Throw away your emotions and look at the facts. Don't accept other people's conclusions and analyses – make your own.

Indeed, sage advice -- but all your posts seem like you're as emotional as anyone, hoping that somehow Iran's version of Steiner's Division is going to materialize and defeat the US/Israeli campaign.

Iran only needs to avoid regime change to win… As well as Ukraine, by the way.
I mean maintaining the country's previous political course – the names of the leaders themselves are not important.
By the way, this is also true in this case for the USA.

"I am back into painting napoleonics, so enjoy my silence."

long may it continue

@CFeicht:
Napoleonics as a wargaming period is quite short and not very complex, especially the uniforms are rather simple. So don´t hold your breath

Caprum

Can't help how he looks to me. Some Russian or Ukrainian news site AI'd them together in a news article. It stuck with me every since. Maybe if you can AI Lenin riding a horse with his shirt off, it might change. 😉

"After US F-35, Iran 'Downs' Israel's Prized F-16: Mojtaba's Air Dominance Stuns Trump & Netanyahu?"

Stunned? 😂 Yes, as stunned as the Russians were when Ukrainians shot down yours? I don't think so. 😂

@SBminisguy

That's not a dataset—that's AI summarizing media narratives.

And the variation across those summaries is exactly why they're not a substitute for a clearly defined objective.

Incavart,

Are you denying that MSM coverage of this conflict has been overwhelmingly dark and negative from Day 2? 🙈 🙉

SB +1

When the Head of the congressional Democrats declared the defeat on day 2?

"Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain!"

Incavart

I can give a list of wars that had "no clear objective", but ended in victory by the initiator.

Here is one:

The Mexican-American War: 1846-1848

But I've said before, we are never going to change each others minds.

Yes Virginia, there are still Trolls hiding under bridges.

Iran International


link

@incavart

Wonder if this will change the 48 hours?

Iran International:

"19 minutes ago
Exiled prince Pahlavi urges US, Israel to spare Iran civilian infrastructure

Iran's exiled prince Reza Pahlavi called on US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to continue targeting Iran's leadership while avoiding civilian infrastructure, after Trump threatened to target Iran's energy facilities.

"Iran's civilian infrastructure belongs to the Iranian people and to the future of a free Iran. The Islamic Republic's infrastructure is the machinery of repression and terror used to keep that future from becoming reality," Pahlavi said in a post on X Sunday.

"I ask President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu to continue targeting the regime and its apparatus of repression, while sparing the civilian infrastructure Iranians will need to rebuild our country," he added."

Btw, we've ALWAYS known Iran was developin IRBMs and lying about range and payload! That's why Pres Bush negotiated with Poland and Czech Republic to install missile defenses against Iranian IRBMs -- and then Obama KILLED European missile defense to appease Vladimir Putin and get him to back off and be peaceful enough to help Obama get re-elected in 2012. YouTube link

@incavart – btw, if you don't know how AI searches work, everything they return is sourced. They are DATA tools. If you want to, most AI have a "see me at work" kind of view that lets you watch all the logic and search and answer flow, and you can ask it to source all its data. So what I gave you was a real time data sourced snapshot.

OVI +1 +!

SBm +1 +!

Yes based on what I have heard in recent interviews with high ranking US Officers RET. It sounds like we had believed that they had longer range ICBMs. But IMO in an act of desperation they fired those two ICBs. Both ended up being ineffective. What few trump cards they have they are running out.

As are their missiles, drone, TELs, supply and manufacturing assets and of course their leadership are becoming an endangered species. If the late Ayatollah's son is not dead or severely maimed. He is not going to start prairie dogging anytime soon. As if he pops his head up he will quickly lose it …

And another point, and this was not unknown. The IDF's Iron Dome can effectively intercept about 90-92% of all incoming within range. That is a pretty amazing stat. But as can be seen … it is not 100% … yet. So until Iran's islamists run out of missiles and drones and/or IRGC, Basji, etc. … Those few that get thru and hit something will still be able to do some damage.

The deployment of the USMC assets are while not only being a looming threat to Iran's islamists. They provide a ready reserve to be used as needed. The USMC can do a number of missions. And not only what we saw in Iraq and A'stan.

They can seize ships at sea. do surgical raids along the coast or even secure an island like Kharg. Which seems could be a very important objective. Raids by its very nature, are to basically to be it and out rapidly. Surgically destroying, capturing, etc. whatever the objective is. Not meant to occupy for an extended period of time.

Or assault, secure, hold until relieved. Which again this won't be for an extended time. However, sometimes the period before they are withdrawn may be extended. Based on the evolving conditions and situations on the battlefield …

The USMC has a added mission after they turned in all 200 0f their M1 MBTs. They have adopted some could the older early WWII mission of "Coastal FA" to a point. They have ground based SP missile launchers that can attack enemy targets both at sea and on land. Similar to what the US MLRS, HIMARS ATACMS and PRISM SP MLRS.

With the USMC being in the area. It gives the US some options. And of course keep the enemy guessing …

RegardlessIMO these attacks by the US and IDF will have to continue. Until these islamic fanatics run out of assets and/or bodies who have the will to resist …

Then at that time the Persians can clean up what is left. Put in a provisional gov't etc. And start to be a useful member of the world again. I hope they change the name back to Persia. Before the islamists had turn the country into a Hell on Earth …

I posted a bit ago that the Prince and now some Arab allied states are requesting the President and Israel NOT hit the "48 Hour" infrastructure sites (nuclear power plants). I and maybe you assumed that would be by air.

We know US and Israeli SPFs are present. Will the marines be? If so, maybe taking them out means by assault. A10's and Helicopters are there.

Just a thought.

"1 hour ago
Basij commander killed in US, Israeli strikes – Fars News

Ebrahim Mortazavi-Nasb, commander of a Basij unit in Shiraz, was killed in US and Israeli attacks on Iran last week, IRGC-affiliated Fars news agency reported on Sunday."

35thOVI, I already said – don't read the headlines. Just read the facts and draw your own conclusions.

Another Iranian commander killed. So what? You think he was an outstanding commander and his deputy can't handle his job? This is worthless news. All Iranian command structures are backed up by redundancy, and new commanders are being trained right now to replace those who might die.

Israel announced that it is switching to using older types of munitions (unguided) for its attacks. That's a fact. The conclusion is that its stockpiles of precision-guided weapons are running low.

Caprum2

Being a bit narcissistic?

Things frustrating on the Ukrainian front?

You seem a bit upset.

Yes it is all failing. After 3 weeks.

I post for whoever wants to read them. If it was for you, it would specifically start with Caprum.

I find the ease of Iranian leadership being killed daily fascinating. Their own people giving the information to Israel, revealing their locations. The one hiding in a tent with his staff in basically the desert to be safe.

"Is that camels passing wind Hassan? Why no I don…… "💥☠️

Have not been paying attention to WW1.. I mean your war. So thought I'd check with the web. According to the AI search engine.

"In the final days of March 2026, Russian forces have faced significant personnel losses, stalled momentum in key offensive sectors, and increased international pressure on their "shadow fleet."

Military Casualties and Field Losses

Record Casualties: On March 17, 2026, Russia suffered its highest daily personnel loss of the year, with 1,710 soldiers killed or wounded in a single day after failed attempts to advance under cover of fog, according to the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine.

Stalled Momentum: While a "Spring-Summer 2026" offensive has likely begun, Russian forces have largely failed to make significant gains in recent days, specifically in the Hulyaipole, western Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson directions where they did not advance as of March 21.

Equipment Destruction: In the last 24 hours alone, Russian forces reportedly lost 30 artillery systems and nearly 1,900 UAVs. Ukraine also successfully downed two Russian military helicopters between March 20 and 21.

High-Value Strikes: Ukrainian forces have intensified strikes against Russian rear infrastructure, recently hitting a repair unit in occupied Khliborobne and air defense systems in the Zaporizhia region.
Institute for the Study of War

Strategic and Logistical Setbacks

Shadow Fleet Interdiction: On March 19, the French Navy seized an oil tanker belonging to Russia's "shadow fleet" in the Mediterranean, a network used to bypass oil price caps. Additionally, Swedish authorities boarded a suspected shadow fleet tanker on March 12.

Infrastructure Risks: An unmanned, damaged Russian LNG tanker has been drifting for over two weeks in the Mediterranean, posing a major ecological risk and highlighting maintenance or logistical failures in Russia's maritime operations.

Logistical "Grey Zones": Near Pokrovsk, intense Ukrainian FPV drone activity has rendered Russian logistics within 15 kilometers of the front "practically nonexistent," forcing units to take up to four days to reach operational bases.
Institute for the Study of War

International and Internal Pressure
Sanctions Extension: On March 14, 2026, the EU Council unanimously voted to extend individual sanctions against approximately 2,600 Russian individuals and entities for another six months, maintaining a united front despite earlier internal disagreements.

Internal Dissent: A pro-Kremlin figure who criticized President Putin and the war was reportedly placed in a psychiatric facility this past week after a viral social media post.

Communication Struggles: Russian military bloggers have complained about a new Ministry of Defense policy forcing soldiers to delete Telegram—a primary communication tool for field units—and switch to a state-controlled app that is described as "inconvenient" and unreliable. "

Well that doesn't sound good. 😳

Fake news you say? Western propaganda you say? Well that is how I view your links on this "failed" 3 week war. 😏

Don't like my posts. Feel free to stay out of the Iran war posts. I've been staying out of the Ukrainian ones.

Maybe tomorrow will be better. 🙂

@35thOVI

The Mexican American War had a declared, clearly stated Objective:

From the desk of President James K. Polk, U.S. aims were:

1. Secure recognition of the Rio Grande as the Texas border

2. Acquire California and New Mexico

This is what you'd call: a defined end state.

@Sbminisguy

That's still a synthesis of sources, not a dataset; and it doesn't address the question of a defined objective or end state.

I find the ease of Iranian leadership being killed daily fascinating. Their own people giving the information to Israel, revealing their locations. The one hiding in a tent with his staff in basically the desert to be safe.

Read a related article about how we're doing ongoing suppression over Iranian C3I on multiple levels. One operations track related directly to the Hormuz interdictoin is intercepting Iranian messages to their remaining small craft about tanker and cargo ship traffic.

Iran has two basic attack profiles. Their preferred approach is that they keep some number of smallcraft at sea in the Gulf laying doggo waiting for orders via radio. When they get the order we have been detecting what command node broadcast the order and hit it quickly with cruise missiles from B-52s loitering over the Gulf, while A-10s and Apaches are dispatched to take out the small craft.

The other approach is to sortie smallcraft, which the US is often able to detect. And the result is cruise missiles into their port, and gunships down their stack, so to speak.

Also, the much maligned LCS class of ships are doing great work despite their flaws and threats of decomissioning. Most are tri-maran hulls and have proven to be very stable platforms for remote operated autonomous mine detection and clearing bots and platforms, and drone launchers. Seems the US has reversed engineered an improved version of Iran's Shaheed drone, called "LUCAS," and has fired scores of them at Iranian targets from LCS ships.

link

I think the Iran War is a wake-up call to the US military on how it needs to change its thinking and ways across the board. For example, the US Navy in particular has been challenged to re-learn how to support high tempo operations and maintenence at sea. We're seeing the flaws in how some of our guided missile ships have been designed for reloading at port, not at sea, and we're learning how to fight in multi-layered drone and missile threat environment, including "hot war" intercepts of IRBMs.

Experience that will help the US be more effective against China should the decide to try and invade Taiwan.

SB

This hot off Yahoo News, believe it or not.

Less than 2% of the top stories on Apple News last month came from right-leaning news outlets — a paltry increase from 0% a month earlier that amounts to "damage control" in the face of a possible federal crackdown on media bias, according to a conservative watchdog.

As The Post exclusively reported, Apple came under fire last month after a Media Research Center study showed it failed to feature a single article by a conservative outlet among the top stories on its popular news app in January.

In a Feb. 11 letter to Apple CEO Tim Cook, FTC Chairman Andrew Ferguson formally warned that Apple could be violating federal consumer protection laws against "unfair or deceptive acts or practices." Apple News finally featured an article by a right-leaning outlet on Feb 12 — its first in 100 days — when it promoted a Fox News story about the death of actor James Van Der Beek.

Out of 560 stories tracked during a new analysis by MRC in February, just eight of them, or 1.4%, were written by conservative outlets. Meanwhile, 400 articles, or 75%, were written by outlets classified as left-leaning. The remaining 152 articles were either from outlets rated as centrist or outlets that were not assigned a bias classification, like small local newspapers.

"2% is not progress. It's damage control," MRC president David Bozell said in a statement. "If public exposure and a federal inquiry only yield a modest adjustment, that suggests the bias we documented was deeply embedded."

"Apple News should not require public pressure to reflect viewpoint diversity," Bozell added.
"This is not about token inclusion. It's about whether one of the most powerful information gatekeepers in the country operates fairly.""

There is more in the story, but was enough.

Of course we have known this about the MSM for well over a decade.

@Sbminisguy

That's still a synthesis of sources, not a dataset; and it doesn't address the question of a defined objective or end state.

Nope, what I provided you fits the definition of a dataset. A data set is simply a collection of related information (data) that is organized for analysis or use. In this case when I asked AI to do it's survey, it reviewed 500 articles across 60 major media outlets and scanned for positive vs negative vs neutral key words and tone of voice.

This actually precisely what most AIs are really good at. In olden days of just a few years ago this kind of survey would cost real money for the tools and staff time to do. Now it takes minutes and anyone can do it. I know how it's done having been a policy and media analayst in my way back days, and I much prefer the ease of AI to all the reading and grunt work of the past.

How This Survey Was Traditionally Conducted
1️⃣ Define the Research Question (First, Always)

You don't start collecting articles—you start with rules:

What counts as "media"? (major outlets only? blogs?)
Time window (e.g., last 7 days)
Geography (global vs regional)
Unit of analysis (headline? full article?)

👉 Without this, results are not defensible.

2️⃣ Build the Article Corpus
Primary tools:
LexisNexis
Factiva
ProQuest Newsstand
Method:
Search terms: "Iran war", "US Iran strikes", "Hormuz conflict"
Filter by:
date range
publication type
language

👉 Result: hundreds to thousands of articles downloaded/exported

3️⃣ Sampling (Critical Step)

You usually don't code everything—you sample:

Random sample (e.g., 500 articles)
Or stratified sample:
100 US
100 Europe
100 Middle East
etc.

👉 Prevents bias from overrepresented regions.

4️⃣ Build a Coding Framework

Before reading anything, researchers define:

Example codebook:
Unfavorable
Neutral
Favorable

With explicit rules like:

"Mentions civilian harm as primary theme → Unfavorable"
"Pure factual reporting → Neutral"
"Frames action as justified/necessary → Favorable"

👉 This is written down as a codebook document

5️⃣ Human Coding (The Core Work)
Process:
Read each article
Assign category
Log in spreadsheet
Tools:
Excel / Google Sheets
NVivo
Atlas.ti
6️⃣ Intercoder Reliability (Big Deal in Research)

To avoid bias:

Multiple coders analyze the same subset
Measure agreement (Cohen's Kappa)

👉 If coders disagree too much → your method is flawed

7️⃣ Aggregate Results

Once coded:

Count totals
Calculate percentages
Generate charts

This is where your:

60% negative
30% neutral
10% positive

…would actually come from.

8️⃣ Validate + Cross-Check

Researchers often:

compare with polling data
compare with other media studies
re-check edge cases
🧠 What This Actually Took (Pre-AI Reality)

For a 500-article dataset:

⏱️ Time:
20–60 hours (manual coding)
👥 People:
Often 2–3 analysts
💰 Cost:
Database access + labor

👉 This is why most studies were:

smaller
slower
published weeks later
⚠️ Limitations of Pre-AI Method
Human bias (even with rules)
Slow turnaround
Limited scale
Expensive data access
🔥 Straight Assessment

Before AI:

This was a serious research project, not a quick question.

You needed:

databases
methodology
time
and often a team
⚖️ What AI Changes (But Doesn't Replace)

AI can:

accelerate sampling
assist classification
summarize trends

So if YOU want to have YOUR AI tool run this review, ChatGPT has develope the instructions – you don't need to pay The Rand Corporation to do this any more. Enjoy this long command cut and paste!

show how to actually run a 500-article scrape + sentiment model step-by-step as commands for another AI tool

Use this as a practical command workflow for another AI or coding agent to build a 500-article media survey and sentiment model.

I'll assume the other tool can:

run shell commands
write Python files
install packages
call news/search APIs or scrape permitted pages
execute notebooks/scripts

This is structured so you can hand it over in chunks.

1. Goal definition prompt for the other AI
Build a reproducible media sentiment survey of 500 news articles about the Iran war.

Requirements:
- Collect 500 articles from major global news outlets.
- Time window: last 14 days.
- Include outlet, region, date, headline, URL, full text if available, and article summary.
- Remove duplicates and syndicated duplicates where possible.
- Classify each article as Favorable, Neutral, or Unfavorable toward the war.
- Also compute a 5-point score:
-2 strongly unfavorable
-1 mildly unfavorable
0 neutral
+1 mildly favorable
+2 strongly favorable
- Produce:
1. raw_articles.csv
2. cleaned_articles.csv
3. coded_articles.csv
4. summary_by_region.csv
5. summary_by_outlet.csv
6. sentiment_report.md
7. charts as PNG files
- Use transparent, auditable methodology.
- Keep code modular and documented.
2. Environment setup commands
mkdir iran_media_sentiment
cd iran_media_sentiment

python -m venv .venv
source .venv/bin/activate

pip install pandas numpy requests beautifulsoup4 lxml newspaper3k feedparser trafilatura python-dateutil tqdm matplotlib scikit-learn scipy openpyxl pyarrow fastparquet

If the other tool supports transformer models:

pip install transformers torch sentencepiece accelerate

If it supports news APIs:

pip install newsapi-python gdelt
3. Folder structure command
mkdir -p data/raw data/clean data/final scripts outputs/charts outputs/logs config
touch README.md
4. Create outlet list

Tell the other AI:

Create a file config/outlets.csv with columns:
outlet,region,country,language,base_url,rss_url,priority

Include about 60-100 outlets balanced across:
- US
- UK/Europe
- Middle East
- India
- East Asia
- Africa
- Latin America
- global wire services

Prefer major outlets and wire services first.
Tag wire services distinctly.

Example starter CSV:

outlet,region,country,language,base_url,rss_url,priority
Reuters,Global,International,en,https://www.reuters.com,,1
Associated Press,Global,USA,en,https://apnews.com,,1
AFP,Global,France,en,https://www.afp.com,,1
BBC,Europe,UK,en,https://www.bbc.com,https://feeds.bbci.co.uk/news/world/rss.xml,1
The Guardian,Europe,UK,en,https://www.theguardian.com,https://www.theguardian.com/world/rss,1
CNN,US,USA,en,https://www.cnn.com,,1
Fox News,US,USA,en,https://www.foxnews.com,,1
New York Times,US,USA,en,https://www.nytimes.com,,1
Al Jazeera,Middle East,Qatar,en,https://www.aljazeera.com,https://www.aljazeera.com/xml/rss/all.xml,1
Al Arabiya,Middle East,Saudi Arabia,en,https://english.alarabiya.net,,1
Times of India,Asia,India,en,https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com,,2
Der Spiegel,Europe,Germany,en,https://www.spiegel.de/international,,2
France 24,Europe,France,en,https://www.france24.com/en/,https://www.france24.com/en/rss,2
DW,Europe,Germany,en,https://www.dw.com/en/,https://rss.dw.com/rdf/rss-en-all,2
5. Article collection prompt
Write a Python script scripts/fetch_articles.py that:
- Reads config/outlets.csv
- Searches for Iran war coverage from the last 14 days
- Uses RSS where available
- Uses site search queries where needed
- Filters for relevant keywords:
"Iran war"
"Iran conflict"
"US strikes Iran"
"Israel Iran war"
"Iran retaliation"
"Hormuz conflict"
"Middle East escalation Iran"
- Extracts:
article_id
outlet
region
country
language
published_at
headline
url
summary
raw_text
author
- Saves all results to data/raw/raw_articles.csv
- Keeps a fetch log in outputs/logs/fetch_log.txt
- Avoids obvious duplicates by URL
- Attempts to collect at least 700 raw articles so cleaning can reduce to 500 final

You can also give it this command target:

python scripts/fetch_articles.py
6. Basic scraping skeleton for the other AI to implement
# scripts/fetch_articles.py
import os
import re
import time
import hashlib
import pandas as pd
import requests
import feedparser
import trafilatura
from bs4 import BeautifulSoup
from dateutil import parser
from datetime import datetime, timedelta, timezone

KEYWORDS = [
"iran war", "iran conflict", "us strikes iran", "israel iran war",
"iran retaliation", "hormuz conflict", "middle east escalation iran"
]

DAYS_BACK = 14
CUTOFF = datetime.now(timezone.utc) – timedelta(days=DAYS_BACK)

def hash_id(text):
return hashlib.md5(text.encode("utf-8")).hexdigest()

def article_matches(text):
t = (text or "").lower()
return any(k in t for k in KEYWORDS)

def fetch_rss_articles(rss_url, outlet_meta):
rows = []
feed = feedparser.parse(rss_url)
for entry in feed.entries:
title = getattr(entry, "title", "")
summary = getattr(entry, "summary", "")
link = getattr(entry, "link", "")
pub = getattr(entry, "published", "") or getattr(entry, "updated", "")
try:
published_at = parser.parse(pub) if pub else None
except Exception:
published_at = None

if published_at and published_at.tzinfo is None:
published_at = published_at.replace(tzinfo=timezone.utc)

if published_at and published_at < CUTOFF:
continue

if not article_matches(f"{title} {summary}"):
continue

text = ""
try:
downloaded = trafilatura.fetch_url(link)
if downloaded:
text = trafilatura.extract(downloaded, include_comments=False, include_tables=False) or ""
except Exception:
pass

rows.append({
"article_id": hash_id(link),
"outlet": outlet_meta["outlet"],
"region": outlet_meta["region"],
"country": outlet_meta["country"],
"language": outlet_meta["language"],
"published_at": published_at.isoformat() if published_at else "",
"headline": title,
"url": link,
"summary": BeautifulSoup(summary, "lxml").get_text(" ", strip=True),
"raw_text": text,
"author": ""
})
return rows
7. Cleaning and deduplication prompt
Write scripts/clean_articles.py that:
- Loads data/raw/raw_articles.csv
- Removes:
– exact duplicate URLs
– near-duplicate headlines
– syndicated duplicates using text similarity
– articles with fewer than 200 words of body text, unless headline+summary clearly indicate relevance
- Standardizes dates
- Adds:
word_count
duplicate_flag
relevance_flag
- Keeps the most complete version of duplicated content
- Balances sample across regions as much as possible
- Produces:
data/clean/cleaned_articles.csv
- Trims final dataset to exactly 500 articles if more than 500 remain

Run:

python scripts/clean_articles.py
8. Suggested cleaning logic for the other AI

Tell it to use:

URL exact dedupe
normalized headline dedupe
cosine similarity on TF-IDF of headline + first 500 chars of text
threshold example:
headline similarity > 0.92 or
body similarity > 0.88

And region balancing rule:

Attempt target shares:
- US: 100
- Europe: 120
- Middle East: 100
- Asia: 70
- Global/Wires: 60
- Africa/Latin America combined: 50

If not enough from a region, fill from the remaining pool.
9. Coding framework prompt for sentiment model
Write scripts/classify_sentiment.py that performs two layers of sentiment coding:

Layer 1: Rules-based framing classification
- Favorable if article framing primarily emphasizes justification, necessity, deterrence, military success, or legitimacy.
- Unfavorable if article framing primarily emphasizes civilian harm, escalation risk, illegality, economic disruption, instability, or condemnation.
- Neutral if article is mainly event-reporting, balanced, or mixed without a dominant frame.

Layer 2: Model-assisted classification
- Use an LLM or transformer classifier to assign:
label_3class = Favorable / Neutral / Unfavorable
score_5point = -2, -1, 0, +1, +2
confidence = 0 to 1
rationale_short = one sentence

Then:
- Compare rules-based and model outputs
- Flag disagreements for review
- Output final_label and final_score
- Save to data/final/coded_articles.csv

Run:

python scripts/classify_sentiment.py
10. Prompt template for the LLM classifier

This is the key prompt you can hand to another AI system:

You are coding media framing, not your own opinion.

Task:
Read the following article metadata and text. Classify the article's dominant framing of the Iran war.

Definitions:
- Favorable: framing is mainly supportive, justificatory, deterrence-focused, or presents the war as necessary, effective, or legitimate.
- Neutral: mostly factual, mixed, or balanced reporting without a dominant evaluative frame.
- Unfavorable: framing is mainly critical, emphasizing escalation, instability, humanitarian harm, economic disruption, illegality, or failure.

Also assign a 5-point score:
-2 strongly unfavorable
-1 mildly unfavorable
0 neutral/mixed
+1 mildly favorable
+2 strongly favorable

Instructions:
- Code dominant framing, not isolated quotes.
- Do not confuse mention of official claims with endorsement.
- If headline is dramatic but body is balanced, weight the body more.
- If multiple frames exist, choose the dominant frame.
- Return JSON only.

Input:
Outlet: {outlet}
Region: {region}
Headline: {headline}
Summary: {summary}
Article text:
{text}

Output JSON schema:
{
"label_3class": "Favorable|Neutral|Unfavorable",
"score_5point": -2,
"confidence": 0.0,
"rationale_short": "…"
}
11. Batch classification command

Tell the other AI to build batching so it does not exceed token limits:

Process articles in batches of 20.
For each batch:
- read cleaned_articles.csv
- send headline + summary + first 3000-5000 characters of body
- parse JSON responses
- write incremental results to data/final/model_labels_checkpoint.csv
Resume safely if interrupted.

Example shell run:

python scripts/classify_sentiment.py --batch-size 20 --resume
12. Human review step

A good survey should not rely entirely on auto-labels. Give the other AI this instruction:

Create scripts/review_disagreements.py that:
- identifies cases where rules-based label and model label differ
- identifies low-confidence cases under 0.65
- exports them to data/final/review_queue.csv
- adds columns:
reviewer_label
reviewer_score
reviewer_notes

Run:

python scripts/review_disagreements.py

Then after review:

python scripts/merge_reviewed_labels.py
13. Summary and aggregation prompt
Write scripts/summarize_results.py that:
- reads data/final/coded_articles.csv
- computes:
overall percentages by label
mean 5-point score
counts by region
counts by outlet
counts by article type if available
- generates:
data/final/summary_by_region.csv
data/final/summary_by_outlet.csv
outputs/charts/overall_sentiment.png
outputs/charts/sentiment_by_region.png
outputs/charts/top_outlets_sentiment.png
outputs/sentiment_report.md

Run:

python scripts/summarize_results.py
14. Report template prompt
Generate outputs/sentiment_report.md with sections:
1. Objective
2. Time window
3. Source selection
4. Data collection method
5. Deduplication and cleaning rules
6. Sentiment coding framework
7. Final counts
8. Overall results
9. Results by region
10. Results by outlet
11. Limitations
12. Reproducibility notes
15. Reproducibility commands

Have the other AI also produce:

pip freeze > requirements.txt

And save a runbook:

Create RUNBOOK.md with exact commands:
1. source .venv/bin/activate
2. python scripts/fetch_articles.py
3. python scripts/clean_articles.py
4. python scripts/classify_sentiment.py --batch-size 20 --resume
5. python scripts/review_disagreements.py
6. python scripts/merge_reviewed_labels.py
7. python scripts/summarize_results.py
16. Stronger sampling instruction

If you want it more defensible, give this command prompt:

Do stratified sampling.
After cleaning, if article count exceeds 500:
- sample proportionally by region
- cap any single outlet at 15 articles
- maintain at least 20 articles from each represented region where possible
- prioritize original reporting over syndicated reposts
Document final sample counts in outputs/sample_audit.csv
17. Advanced sentiment instruction

If the other AI can run embeddings or ML:

Add a second model for triangulation:
- model A: LLM framing classifier
- model B: transformer sentiment or stance model fine-tuned on political/news framing if available

Create ensemble_label:
- if both agree, accept
- if disagreement, flag for review
- if one low confidence, defer to the other if confidence > 0.8
Document ensemble rules in the report
18. Quality control prompt
Add a quality audit of 50 randomly selected coded articles.
For each one:
- compare model label to manual review
- compute agreement rate
- output outputs/quality_audit.csv and outputs/quality_metrics.md
19. Minimal one-shot command for an autonomous coding agent

If the other tool accepts a large single instruction, use this:

Create a complete Python project that collects, cleans, deduplicates, classifies, and summarizes 500 news articles about the Iran war from the last 14 days.

Outputs required:
- data/raw/raw_articles.csv
- data/clean/cleaned_articles.csv
- data/final/coded_articles.csv
- data/final/summary_by_region.csv
- data/final/summary_by_outlet.csv
- outputs/charts/overall_sentiment.png
- outputs/charts/sentiment_by_region.png
- outputs/charts/top_outlets_sentiment.png
- outputs/sentiment_report.md
- requirements.txt
- RUNBOOK.md

Method:
- Collect at least 700 raw articles from balanced global outlets.
- Deduplicate by URL, headline similarity, and text similarity.
- Keep exactly 500 final articles using stratified regional sampling.
- Apply both rules-based and model-assisted framing classification.
- Use three labels: Favorable, Neutral, Unfavorable.
- Use five-point score from -2 to +2.
- Flag disagreement and low-confidence items for review.
- Produce an auditable final dataset and methodology report.

Use modular scripts in /scripts and document everything clearly.
20. Important real-world note

A lot of major outlets block scraping, and some pages require licensed access. So for a real build, the other AI should prefer:

RSS feeds
official APIs
licensed databases
pages where extraction is permitted

And it should log failures rather than pretending it accessed pages it couldn't.

21. What the final coded dataset should look like
article_id,outlet,region,published_at,headline,url,summary,word_count,rules_label,model_label,final_label,score_5point,confidence,rationale_short
a001,Reuters,Global,2026-03-20T09:21:00Z,Oil prices surge as conflict widens,https://…,Markets react to widening conflict…,912,Unfavorable,Unfavorable,Unfavorable,-1,0.91,Focus is on economic disruption and instability.
a002,BBC,Europe,2026-03-20T12:10:00Z,Strikes continue as leaders trade warnings,https://…,Fresh exchanges follow overnight attacks…,1044,Neutral,Neutral,Neutral,0,0.76,Mainly event-driven reporting with mixed framing.
a003,Fox News,US,2026-03-21T07:05:00Z,Why Tehran must be deterred now,https://…,Analysis argues stronger action is necessary…,1360,Favorable,Favorable,Favorable,2,0.88,Article strongly frames action as necessary and justified.
22. Best practice addition

Ask the other AI to separate news reporting from opinion/editorial because that changes the interpretation a lot.

Use this instruction:

Add a column article_genre with values:
- News
- Analysis
- Opinion
- Editorial
- Explainer

Report results both:
1. all articles combined
2. news-only subset

That makes the output much harder to dismiss.

23. Clean final handoff prompt
Build this project now. Do not simulate results. Do not invent article text. Only use articles actually fetched or accessed through permitted sources. Log inaccessible pages and continue. Preserve reproducibility and save all outputs to disk.

If you want, I can turn this into a single polished master prompt for a coding agent like Claude Code, Cursor, or another autonomous AI developer.

Incavart,

No, Polk believed in "Manifest Destiny" and he and others wanted new territories. But his instructions were;

"On January 13, 1846, Polk issued formal orders through Secretary of War William L. Marcy for General Zachary Taylor to advance and occupy positions on or near the east bank of the Rio Grande.
The University of Texas at Arlington

The Specific Orders
Target Location: Taylor was directed to move his "army of observation" from Corpus Christi to the Rio Grande, specifically mentioning points like Point Isabel and areas opposite Matamoros.

Official Stance: Taylor was instructed not to treat Mexico as an enemy unless she committed an "open act of hostility"."

"President Polk's initial instructions to the military were vague, mostly involving poking at the border to see what would happen."

So no clearly defined objective or end game.

Of course he hoping they would take the bait, so he could expand from there. But the end game expanded as the war successfully proceeded and Mexican defeats multiplied.

SB

Good explanation of what AI does and can do. We are just scratching it surface.

I'm curious how you'd define the end state in practical terms—what specific condition would signal success, and that the campaign has achieved its objective?

Inca77 … didn't I answer that somewhere already ?

@ Legion 4

You've covered the operational side pretty well—I'm just trying to pin down what the actual end condition would be in practical terms.

Of course, you're not required to go into it but I thought it might be interesting to hear your thoughts.

@35thOVI

Polk's objective is clear from the record. He tried to secure the Rio Grande border and acquire California and New Mexico, and the war ended when those were achieved.

He first first tried to buy California and New Mexico (this was before the war) and he continually insisted on the Rio Grande as a border.

Polk then conducted the war in a way that secured those aim and the war ultimately ended with a treaty, a transfer of territory and a border fixed. That's what we call objective = actions = outcome aligned.

What's the equivalent end state here?

I know the Prince, Arab allies and some world leaders were placing pressure to not do this now. So I'm not fully buying this explanation for postponing. I place more belief in the allied pressure and Prince pressure.

Will see as days proceed.

Iran International:

"US President Donald Trump said on Monday he would pause planned strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, following what he described as "very good and productive conversations" with Tehran.

"Based on the tenor and tone of these… constructive conversations… I have instructed the Department of War to postpone any and all military strikes… for a five day period," Trump said.

He said the pause, which follows his earlier 48-hour ultimatum, would be "subject to the success of the ongoing meetings and discussions," which are set to continue this week."

But the DOW and crude are really buying it. Dow up 900 and oil down 8.

Incavart,

Transcription:
"WAR DEPARTMENT,
Washington, January 13, 1846.

Sir: I am. directed by the President to instruct you to advance and occupy, with the troops under your command, positions on or near the east bank of the Rio del Norte, as soon as it can be conveniently done with reference to the season and the routes by which your movements must be made. From the views heretofore presented to this department, it is presumed Point Isabel will be considered by you an eligible position. This point, or some one near it, and points opposite Matamoros and Mier, and in the vicinity of Laredo, are suggested for your consideration; but you are left to your better knowledge to determine the post or posts which you are to occupy, as well as the question of dividing your forces with a view to occupying two or more positions.

In the positions you may take in carrying out these instructions and other movements that may be made, the use of the Rio del Norte may be very convenient, if not necessary. Should you attempt to exercise the right which the United States have in common with Mexico to the free navigation of this river, it is probable that Mexico would interpose resistance. You will not attempt to enforce this right without further instructions. You are requested to report to this department, without delay, what means you may require, if any, beyond those you now possess, to enforce and maintain our common right to navigate this river, as well as your views of the importance of this right in the defence and protection of the State of Texas.

It is not designed, in our present relations with Mexico, that you should treat her as an enemy; but, should she assume that character by a declaration of war, or any open act of hostility towards us, you will not act merely on the defensive, if your relative means enable you to do otherwise.

Since instructions were given you to draw aid from Texas, in case you should deem it necessary, the relations between that State and the United States have undergone some modification. Texas is now fully incorporated into our union of States, and you are hereby authorized by the President to make a requisition upon the executive of that State for such of its militia force as may be needed to repel invasion or to secure the country against apprehended invasion.

I have the honor to be, with great respect, your obedient servant,
WM. L. MARCY, Secretary of War."

No mention when trying to "initiate" a war with Mexico of seizure of land.

You will say; "That's not the war." But many see this as the beginning of the war.

But after open hostilities "officially" started, the aim of ultimate strategic objectives changed as Mexican defeats multiplied and the perceived ease of victory seemed to progress.

"While the official declaration was in May, hostilities began earlier due to a boundary dispute over the territory between the Nueces River and the Rio Grande:

April 25, 1846: The war effectively started with the Thornton Affair, a skirmish where Mexican cavalry attacked U.S. troops in the disputed region.
May 11, 1846: President Polk sent his war message to Congress, famously claiming that Mexico had "shed American blood upon American soil".
May 13, 1846: Congress officially declared war.
National Park Service (.gov)

Declaration of Strategic Objectives

President Polk's strategic objectives were declared in stages, both publicly and privately:

Initial Objectives (May 1846): Immediately following the declaration, Polk and his cabinet established a three-pronged strategy to secure northern Mexico, capture New Mexico and California, and eventually seize Mexico City.

Public Territorial Disclosure (August 1846): While Polk's desire for California and New Mexico was a primary driver for the war (linked to the concept of Manifest Destiny), he did not publicly disclose these territorial gains as official war aims until August 1846. At that time, he asked Congress for a $2 USD million appropriation to negotiate a boundary treaty that would include these acquisitions."

The strategy and ultimate end point changed and increased as the war and success progressed.

@35thovi

That's an initial field order, not a statement of war aims.

What was the political outcome the campaign achieved, and what's the equivalent here?

Of course Iranian leadership du jour denies it, but that is no surprise.

A couple of stories in the last few minutes.

I am still skeptical, but time will tell. Bombing continued by at least Israel this morning.

"Trump says Iran deal could be reached within days – Fox Business
22 minutes ago

US President Donald Trump told Fox Business that Iran wants to make a deal "badly" and that an agreement could be reached within five days or sooner.

According to the report, talks on a deal with Iran took place on Sunday night involving US envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff and their counterparts.

More Stories
Turkey, Egypt, Pakistan mediating between US and Iran – Axios
25 minutes ago

Turkey, Egypt and Pakistan have been passing messages between the United States and Iran in recent days in an effort to de-escalate the conflict, Axios reported, citing a US source.

Senior officials from the three countries held separate talks with White House envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, the source said.

"The mediation is ongoing and making progress… the discussion is about ending the war and resolving all outstanding issues," the source said, adding: "We hope to have answers soon."
"