"Iran Situation" Topic

I am surprised no one is talking about this as I've been following it for over a week now. Very little news about it in the mainstream news other than short mentions based on days old reports. From the news getting out, it appears the government is about to fall. News getting out is that despite the IRGC being unleashed on the populace, people are appearing in the streets in ever increasing numbers. The son of the old shah now says he is planning to return and the people are shouting both Death to Khameni and ‘The king is returning, long live Pahlavi.' They are also flying the old lion flag which is a criminal act to the current regime.

Thoughts? A fall of the Islamic republic would certainly shake things up in the world. From what I am reading, the populace is quickly coalescing behind Pahlavi, but since his dad was kicked out for his brutal treatment of the people, I am curious how it would really work out.

Yes, we are seeing the collapse of the regime in real time. I am reading that many of the security troops are 'ghosts" whose pay is being collected by corrupt officers. And the photos of women using photos of khoomei to light cigarettes are awesome and now viral. And the US is surging forces into the area as we have seen before.

There is that old Chinese proverb, "may you live in interesting times". Sadly, I think things may be turning a bit too interesting.

I am supposed to be returning to CENTCOM later in 2026. I wonder what the jigsaw puzzle shall look like then.

One thing most folks forget, Iranians are Persians, not Arabs. Their view of the Moslem religion, in an admittedly very wide generalization, is sometimes quite different than what most folks think.

Something to consider.

Eric

Iran is far more religiously diverse than many people assume. Zoroastrianism is centered there, and there are strong Jewish and Christian communities as well.

Iran may have a new government or not. It is up to their people.
I sawthe Teinien (so) Square revolt on unedited satellite back decades ago. Everybody was expecting a regime change then and it did not happen.

From what I am reading, the populace is quickly coalescing behind Pahlavi, but since his dad was kicked out for his brutal treatment of the people, I am curious how it would really work out.

Pahlavi is saying he is neutral on form of government, monarchy or democracy, he says let the people decide.

He is a figure to rally around. To show their opposition. Anyone under the age of 60 would not even remember the old Shah.

Iran also has a large minority of people who are just completely done with religion. I work with a few of that diaspora, and they hope for anything to rid themselves of the Islamic regime. They will say it literally set back Iranian progress by a century.

Imagine if the CIA/MI6 in their overwhelming ineptitude would have let real democracy work in Iran those many long decades ago.

Information is hard to get, but certainly the best chance to overturn their government

Imagine if the CIA/MI6 in their overwhelming ineptitude would have let real democracy work in Iran those many long decades ago.

Real democracy at the time might have elected the same people who are currently in charge…

I'd urge a lot of caution here.

Iran has been "on the brink" many times over the last 25–30 years. Protest waves are real, widespread, and deeply felt — but they are not the same thing as regime collapse. The Islamic Republic has shown repeatedly that it is willing and able to absorb very high levels of unrest, repression, economic pain, and international isolation to survive. The IRGC, Basij, judiciary, and security services are tightly integrated into the state and economy; they don't defect lightly, and there's no solid evidence of a decisive split at the top.

On Pahlavi specifically: he is far better known outside Iran than inside it. Among Iranians, monarchism is a minority current, and memories of the Shah's regime are mixed at best — SAVAK, repression, inequality, and dependency on the hated US are not forgotten, even by people who despise the clerical system. Chanting slogans or flying the old flag doesn't automatically translate into mass support for restoration, especially once the question moves from protest symbolism to actual governance.

There's also an American tendency to assume that "anti-regime" automatically means "pro-US". History suggests otherwise. A post-Islamic Republic Iran could just as easily be nationalist, non-aligned, or hostile to outside influence — specifically Washington. Even the 1979 revolution initially included liberals and leftists who were anything but pro-clerical, yet the end result was hardly what the US expected.

Finally, if the regime really were about to fall, you'd expect to see clearer indicators: elite defections, paralysis of state institutions, or loss of control over major cities for sustained periods. At present, what we're seeing looks more like another severe legitimacy crisis — not yet a terminal one.

So yes, a collapse would be world-shaking. But betting on imminent regime change, or on a friendly successor, feels more like the usual wishful thinking than hard analysis.

That's an interesting amount of assumptions you are making there Ochoin. I am not assuming a newly free Iran is automatically a pro-western one, and I hear you on Iran being there before- I remember all of the demonstrations, revolts and rebellions from then until now. This one just feels different as it's already gone longer than previous demonstrations and far more widespread. Thanks to Starlink operating for free in Iran, a lot more Iranian direct sources of intel are communicating now. The reports I am seeing are of IRGC families and officials already arriving in Russia and police and some IRGC officials defecting to the demonstrators.

Additionally, several IRGC locations have. Web set on fire. I honestly had no idea Pahlavi was even a factor until I started listening to Iranian sources. Apparently he's been laying the ground work for a few years and finding surprising popularity with young Iranians.

I take nothing for granted since the regime is brutal and we live in crazy times, but I hope the the Iranian people find a way toward an escape from the regime that has brutalized them for nearly 50 years.

Fair enough — and I think we're closer than it might appear.

Starlink has clearly widened the information flow, but it's also sped up the spread of rumours alongside real reporting. Claims about IRGC families fleeing, defections, and bases being burned are meaningful if they're happening at scale; the hard part is separating isolated incidents from systemic fracture in real time.

Lower-level police or local defections have happened in past unrest without breaking the regime. What would really change the picture is sustained, multi-province refusal of orders or clear splits among mid-to-senior IRGC and clerical elites — that's the historical tipping point. Is it here yet?

Like you, I hope the Iranian people ultimately find a way out of a system that's brutalised them for decades.

oh, and "That's an interesting amount of assumptions". I think this is more correct: "That's an interesting number of assumptions".
link You're welcome.

Iran Toughens Crackdown, as U.S. Sketches Out Military Options

link

Armand

Sadly, I do not think there will be any overthrow.
The Iranian state apparatus is too big. too embrolied and too powerful.

martin

The motivation for riots is economics rather than politics. I will be interesting to see what happens. I found this article link

+1 Martin. We've seen this many times.

+2 Martin, I remember it was similar in 2003 when we went into Iraq, after a few thousand dead the regime emerged as strong as ever!

Tally Ho!

This is the weakest Iran's gov't has ever been. The entire country is rioting against the theocratic draconian gov't. Plus the Free Iranian forces do have assistance from IDF Spec Ops. With the wide-spread anti-gov't riots. The regime it is reported has already made plans to load up on transport aircraft with gold assets. And fly to Russia, for "sanctuary". Didn't Assad do that ?

The US and IDF's AF could strike key and critical locations thru out the country. That would make the Free Iran's forces a little easier. Their Military is not part of the IRGC. They are mostly conscripts. The military could attack or be attacked by the IRGC. Either way US and IDF air assets could hit IRGC locations, C3, airfields, ports, supply points. critical infrastructure, even their top leadership.

Also note: Shia militias, etc. from Iraq have entered the fray. To support the Ayatollah's forces. Of course, those Iraqi Shia could be targeted as well.

This may be the best chance to overthrow/decapitate this militant islamic regime. We really don't need boots on the ground. Let our high-tech air assets, i.e. TLAMS, Drones, airstrikes, etc. soften up the islamist gov't and the IRGC. Basically, eliminate as much as possible of the IRGC, C3 and their equipment. Should be the first priority.

And if the Ayatollah and his cronies get the idea and flee to Russia. Or get blown up[that is my vote]. This could be a major event for the world or certainly that region. At this point this is all theoretical. But I'm sure the US, IDF, etc. have this op all planned out. However, we will have to see what evolves in the near future.

Also note: The US [and possibly some other allies form the region] hit a number of ISIS targets in Syria in the past 24-48hrs. As I said the GWoT will continue as long as there are targets out there like ISIS. These strikes should be almost daily if not weekly. Significantly attiting ISIS, AQ, AS BH, etc. with every strike.

Does not matter if they make more, we have a lot of ordinances. Until something more constructive comes about. E.g. these troglodytes move into the 20th or 21st centuries. We should just keep hitting with air assets … often …

The regime is terminal. It may attempt a zombie existence through repression but nothing gets better and they are pushing all the buttons that no longer work. Repression is the only trick left to this pony but the pony is dying.

There's a familiar bit of wishful thinking at work here — the idea that economic pain plus protests equals imminent regime collapse. The US has believed this repeatedly, and usually been wrong.

Look at Venezuela. Sanctions, economic catastrophe, mass protests, endless predictions of "this is it"… and yet the regime endured. Why? Because hardship doesn't break a state that still controls its security forces, courts, and patronage networks. Iran's apparatus is far larger, more institutionalised and far more ideologically cohesive than Caracas ever was.

Washington also keeps mistaking unrest for alignment. People riot over prices and corruption, not because they want a Western-backed political reset. External pressure often strengthens nationalist narratives and gives regimes justification to tighten control — something Tehran has decades of experience doing.

We heard similar confidence in 2003: sanctions had hollowed out Iraq, the people would rise, the regime would fold. Instead it took a full-scale invasion to remove it, and even then the "easy win" fantasy collapsed almost immediately. The only thing that remained constant was the hatred of Americans by the local people.

Unpopular states don't fall just because outsiders want them to. They fall when their coercive machinery fractures. There's little evidence that's happening in Iran — despite how often Washington reassures itself otherwise.