| doc mcb | 09 Jan 2026 3:17 p.m. PST |
US Oil & Gas Association
@US_OGA
Here is our afternoon take on this WH meeting. There are 2 "Must haves" for producers to go back into Venezuela. 1 – We need know our crews are not going to get kidnapped. 2- We need to know investment and capital expenditures are going to be safe from seizure by a foreign government. The overwhelming show of force from the US military on last Saturday morning – well, that solves the first problem. Thinking of kidnapping my Exec?s Let me introduce you to some new friends of mine. RE: #2 -- I expect that the Administration will put a very interesting set of financing options on the table for US producers that will link Venezuelan investment not to a company's CapEx budgets – but to the US government's international project financing mechanisms such as the ExIm bank or other entities designed to reduce exposure to US interests and investments overseas. Its's one thing to have a foreign government seize a company's asset – but seizing an asset that is financed and back by the US government? Try it and you gonna get another visit in the middle of the night by representatives of the US military. Yes – at first blush there was some skepticism – but to the Administrations' credit, I wouldn't be surprised if an enticing financing package for those operators willing to take the risk is put on the table with some takers. The Lanyard class experts will. go "Oh it's going to be hard. Challenges are too great". After 30 years I have learned to never take investment advice from anyone living in the DC suburbs. And I live there. This is the Art of the Deal and there's no one better than the guy who wrote the book. |
pzivh43  | 09 Jan 2026 5:04 p.m. PST |
I'm inclined to agree. Also expect  to howl at the moon, baying no blood for oil! |
| Grattan54 | 09 Jan 2026 5:17 p.m. PST |
I don't think problem number one is solved at all. There are numerous groups that could grab some Americans and then fade into the mountains or wild areas. Grabbing the president does not to me, show we can protect every American in the entire country. |
| 79thPA | 09 Jan 2026 5:39 p.m. PST |
Agreed. #1 is not solved at all. |
| Shardik | 09 Jan 2026 6:31 p.m. PST |
Assuming USA still has a two party system in the future, one day it might not have a hawkish administration. It would be a brave oil company that spends billions in Venezuala, with no guarantee that a future government will underwrite their investment. |
| doc mcb | 09 Jan 2026 7:02 p.m. PST |
All good points about #1. The second point has some merit, though. |
 StoneMtnMinis | 09 Jan 2026 7:38 p.m. PST |
The oil companies have already committed bigly to the project. link |
 John the OFM  | 09 Jan 2026 9:21 p.m. PST |
We have no boots on the ground to enforce anything.
Venezuela might as well be Anarchy Inc after Fearless Leader was … given a vacation. The factions have factions.
How can anyone guarantee #1? 🤷
The factions will be standing in line to kidnap Americans.
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| Zephyr1 | 09 Jan 2026 11:35 p.m. PST |
The oil companies are going to move slowly, mainly because the price of oil is dropping. Pumping Venz oil will glut the market and cut profit margins even more. OTOH, getting a guaranteed gov't subsidy will make them happy… |
| StoneMtnMinis | 10 Jan 2026 12:01 a.m. PST |
Zep – Crude is currently at $58.78 USD a barrel. Under biden it was running at $95 USD – $100 USD a barrel. Even at "glut level" production the price usually doesn't drop below $38 USD a barrel. Lower than that and drilling is a money losing proposition. And I personally feel the impact of the lower prices as my monthly royalty payments on my leases are 50% of what they were under biden. But, it is better for the economy and the country as a whole to have prices at this lower level. |
| Andrew Walters | 10 Jan 2026 10:17 a.m. PST |
One of the scariest things about Trump is the post Trump era. Whether it's 2028 or 3032 (or 2027) someday he won't be there to use military force so liberally. Worse, a Democrat might want to "heal" and undo his actions, blaming any downside on Trump even if they do it clumsily. If Trump builds something that can sustain itself, that could last. But if he builds something that require the president to prop it up in an ongoing way, it will collapse and soon. Think about Afghanistan. So if I were Big Oil I'd wait to see what kind of government the new political culture of Venezuela produces. Because whatever rules are in force now and not the ones that will be there is six months, twelve months, or post-Trump. With 20-25% of the population gone it's hard to say how people will vote now. And how many will return? You could have an election that produces one kind of government, and then a lot of people return and you immediately get another kind of government. So you can't invest. You can offer to run what's there. You can accept government money to fix things. You can invest if there's a US government guarantee. But you can't take risks with large amounts of capital, there are too many unknowns. On the other hand, it's the biggest pool of oil in the world, so maybe people will be willing to take risks. |
| jdpintex | 10 Jan 2026 12:13 p.m. PST |
Chevron is already in the country and may/can up their investment to increase production. Hilcorp is the only other exploration company that said "yes" to investment there. They love buying aging assets and squeezing the last cent from them, which fits the bill here. The Refining companies have all said that they would accept the oil at a steep discount (as is normal for heavy sour crude), which is no big surprise, but could hurt Canada/Mexico in the long run depending upon the level of discount and how much diluent is required. I doubt any of the others are eager to dump billions of dollars into iffy assets in an uncertain security/political arena. They need much more than the current politician's assurances as they are looking at long term investment whereas politicians come and go. [+1 Andrew] |
| Maggot | 10 Jan 2026 5:09 p.m. PST |
The only way I see any company re-investing in Venezuelan oil is if the field is cordoned off by the US Army. No way any company is just going to go in there and start dumping billions when:
1. Narco terrorists still control the country.
2. The native expertise to provide labor for those fields has shrunk dramatically.
3. The infrastructure has been neglected for decades.
4. The country has very little law and order outside of the rich government leaders killing and imprisoning anyone who stands against them.
5. The demand for poor quality crude in the West is fairly low. You'd need a "Weyland Yutani" with it's own private army (and they'd likely be just as bad as the narcos) to make it work. |
 Editor in Chief Bill   | 10 Jan 2026 5:56 p.m. PST |
The only way I see any company re-investing in Venezuelan oil is if the field is cordoned off by the US Army. I think you've missed a detail in the current proposals. The idea is to directly involve the USA in some degree of ownership/investment in the oil fields. This means that if someone tries to nationalize them again or something similar, they won't just be messing with Big Oil, but directly with the USA. So an added layer of deterrent. |
