"Whither the war in Ukraine?" Topic

This article looks at the current situation of the conflict from the EU position and evaluates it on a economic and political axis.

If you are looking for another evil vs good article, don't bother reading it and complaining. It makes no judgements on right or wrong, but does look at the internal pressures on the EU and their stated position.

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Ukraine / Russia is France / Germany in WWI.
What would the best year to stop be?
How much should France have been willing to give up to save millions of lives?
Would peace in 1915 have averted WWII or hastened it?

Mike Bunkermeister Creek

+1 Bunkermeister

Russia is winning in the long term because they're eliminating Ukraine a few hundred men at a time. Generations are being wiped out. Ukrainian general staff leak (may not be legit so don't jump down my throat…) indicates 1.7 million dead. Some quick googling and back of the napkin math says that 10% of the male population prewar is dead. Never mind civilians who fled or died.

I think this is Russia's strategy. France broke before Germany. France only "won" because British, Commonwealth, and eventually American troops compensated for the lost manpower. Who will do it for Ukraine?

Russia's goal is to demilitarize Ukraine. And this is one of the ways to destroy its military potential. Take away industrial areas, reduce mobilization capabilities… There is no need to seize all of Ukraine. It would be best to hand over this unprofitable stump of a country with a destroyed potential to Europe and the West, thus holding back their development. How much money did you invest in this project? This is irretrievable money.
All that remains is to achieve neutral status for Ukraine – and this will be an absolutely brilliant game for Russia.

"What would the best year to stop be?"

1913

More than most conflicts, this war will have no winners. Putin aspires to reconstitute the USSR. For him, Ukraine is just one step on that path. He's trapped. The best he can hope for is to die in his sleep.

The War will end when Sergei Hadenov from Tomsk decides to shoot his Battalion Commander, sling arms and start walking home.

A pleasant delusion)))
Sergey Hadenov will once again plant his flag on the ruins of the enemy capital…

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"Russia's goal is to conquer Ukraine", there changed it for you, Odessa has been added to the list of areas that should belong to Russia, according to the rescue.

A neutral Ukraine would just become part of Spewtins new USSR, which is the gameplan, thankfully the B3 joined NATO when they did, oh hang on was this NATO expanding on to Russia's border!

Tally Ho!

The ultimate plan for Russia is to take all Russian-speaking territories. Odessa and the surrounding areas are Russian-speaking. So yes – if the war does not stop for political reasons – the Russians will take these territories too. Or they will receive a special status within Ukraine, turning it into a federation. But this is only possible before Russian troops arrive there.
The Baltics are interesting only as a corridor to the Kaliningrad region. If the Balts do not create obstacles for Russian shipping and rail traffic, they are of no interest to Russia.

In the meantime – a surprisingly objective view of Russian policy:

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Putin has set the goal of returning Russia to its status as a world power, and he has already done so…

Russia … status as a world power

Only insofar as being able to create chaos and mayhem in unimportant parts of the world.

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Kaliningrad region

Something should be done about this exclave/pustulent cyst within the EU.

Having Russian speakers so away and in enemy territory is sub-optimum. Better to bus them back to Mother Russia.

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The War will end when Sergei Hadenov (had-enough) from Tomsk decides to shoot his Battalion Commander, sling arms and start walking home.

More likely when – en masse – Russian Militia commanders refuse orders and keep their paramilitaries in barracks.

France broke before Germany. France only "won" because British, Commonwealth

So little understanding.

There was no 'Commonwealth' in 1914. You mean 'Empire' troops.

France didn't 'break'. Britain (and Russia) entered the war because of the Triple Entente. WWI started on July 28 1914, when the Triple Entente declared war on the Central Powers (not 'Germany'). British (and Irish) troops were in France by 15 August.

It was a war that the British Empire didn't need to become embroiled in. It lost them much of their empire, and Ireland. Hubris is a fateful thing :)

Éirinn go Brách

As for Ukraine, nickinsomerset has a better idea than any of you Seppos. Even if he is English.

Éirinn go Brách

Hubris indeed, the fall of empires:

- German Empire (destroyed)
- Austro-Hungarian Empire (destroyed)
- Russian Empire (destroyed)
- Ottoman Empire (dismembered)
- British Empire (severely weakened)
- French Empire (severely weakened)

I wasn't around then but I do blame Queen Victoria and her marry-the-spawn-off-to-everyone diplomatic system. It suited when dealing with Principalities and Duchies, but fell short when populations grew and countries became proper states.

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However, on the plus side, the razing of imperial systems allowed a lot of new countries to come into being, a curated selection being:

- Ireland
- Czechoslovakia
- Poland
- Ukraine
- etc.

And much later:
- Israel
- India
- Pakistan
- Bangladesh
- etc.

This article seems to have no author, no credentials to back it up -unusual. My opinion, also with no credentials….

The role of Trump is diminished after Alaska. No promised sanctions, no cease fire. He is no longer much of a personal factor, although the US in general is. There will be no cease fire.

Putin will now get more help from North Korea. Xi is moving for a stronger global role. After years of the US courting India as an ally to counter China, Trump turned on a dime against Modi and Modi turned to Putin and Xi. They are putting on a global show, while the Trump tariff game show leaves the world uncertain and resentful.

And US domestic politics is the great hot mess among many hot messes. Exactly as Putin and XI hoped with their social media and cyber campaigns. So US influence is diminished. POTUS well under 50% approval on job performance, apparently this will never change.

Putin wins. No Nobel Peace Prize for anyone. Maybe the US can stop Putin's next move down the road. Not that he will have huge military strength. But he thinks he can leave the US out of the picture.

Sorry these threads have been so quiet lately -- the energy spent by many posters here on Slava Ukraine is being spent berating Trump for raising the cost of wargames from Europe by 10%. Once they are done there, they will be back here to once more add life and color to our discussions…

Yes its quiet, SB. I am not berating Trump any more than the anti-Biden crowd did their considerable thing. And there was much to criticize and question there as well. This is about foreign policy and lack of policy. The US is undergoing major changes in its global strategies, and yet no one wants to comment. Unless maybe we leave POTUS out of it. I alluded to domestic issues only in passing as they play a role in Putin's thinking, IMO.

Agree Tort.

Report out that since the Alaska meeting Russia has doubled the amount of Drone attacks in Ukraine. Guess that tells us how well that meeting went. Also, what happened to the severe punishment Trump was going to unlease on Russia if they didn't agree to a cease fire in X amount of days? That time
has passed and nothing. That is great diplomacy. It worked so well for Obama when he drew that red line. Trump just followed suit. Russia now must be under double secret probation.

" The ultimate plan for Russia is to take all Russian-speaking territories. "

I don't usually comment on Cuprum's posts as he is on his own here and is being patriotic.
But..
Isn't that quote something Hitler would say in the 1930s?

For years the Biden's admin strategy of pouring money in (and getting 10-20% return to line Biden and his stooges pockets) and let the Russians lay waste to Ukraine worked so well. We should continue this strategy and be dammed about trying anything else.

Maybe Russia shouldn't have illegaly invaded a sovereign country. They continue to illegally kill Ukrainian civilians because of Putin's love for CCCP reunification.