"Would Russia Join China in a Pacific War?" Topic

Beijing and Moscow declared in 2022 that their friendship has no limits, and the two sides' actions have backed that promise. The U.S. Navy cannot rule out direct Russian participation in a conflict in the Pacific.

Proceedings magazine: link

Over the last twenty years, the US has been working hard to bring Russia and China closer together)))
But Russia is unlikely to be interested in a world in which China will take on the current role of the US… Russia will benefit if China and the US fight each other, and Russia will remain outside this fight, trading with both.
Thoughts about the seizure of territories made me laugh… Russia already has huge undeveloped territories. Russia needs secure borders with neutral or friendly states along the perimeter. Guarding such long borders is a non-trivial task.

No. China is an ally of convenience. What does Russia gain other than the chance to endure a bombing campaign from Europe? If they join it's WWIII for sure. Or they sit back and watch the US military and PLA rip each other apart.

The Pacific has not been a good place for their fleet in the past. 😉

The Russians will support their commie BFF. And jump in one way or another. But at this point what do they have that can be of any use to China ? They are using North Koreans to replace their huge losses in Ukraine.

Of course, if NATO, Pacific Rim allies, etc. get in a war with Russia in the PTO. The Chicoms would let both attrite each other. Then make their move … they know how to play the long game …

And Un will be waiting in the wings to try to get his piece of the action. He may take advantage of the US, etc. being busy and make an attack on the ROK. It would be his best and only chance to make this move. To unite the Koreas as one under his control, of course.

Despite Hegel saying "The only thing we learn from history is that we learn nothing from history" I suggest we look to WW2.
Russia was rather involved in Europe. Japan was Germany's "ally". Yet Japan did nothing to annoy Russia in its dire state. In fact, Russia was so reassured about Japan's "neutrality" that Stalin was able to bring the famous Siberian divisions to Moscow in December 1941.
Yes. I know. This is a huge contradictory rabbit hole to go down.
But the main point is that this is a classic case of "You do your thing, I'll do mine".
What's in it for Russia when it's getting its butt handed to it by Ukraine?
Of course Putin is delusional enough to try. So I'll hedge my bet from 100% NO to 75%.

Putin is delusional enough to try.

That is a good word to describe him …

This topic begs the question of China actually sparking a Pacific war.
Why would it? They've just won the Tariff War & now need only sit back to let everything drop into their laps.

Trump has said the that the Golden Rule is whoever has the gold, makes the rules. It looks as though Rare Earths are the actual gold that the US cannot do without. Samarium anyone? This forced the US to virtually beg for trade talks.

This trumps (pun intended) the US restrictions on semi-conductors instituted by the canny Joe Biden.

In order to get Rare Earths, it looks like these restrictions have been waived. This should allow the Chinese to move ahead in the technology race & surpass the US, negating the need for a dicey military conflict.

Oh, in case that the Usual Suspects will claim the latest talks as an American "win", just consider how little detail is accompanying the "Deal" – virtually nothing from a government that always proclaims it's victories, real or imagined. Any details released seem to indicate the status quo has been restored with hints about easing S-C supply in exchange for the REs previously traded. Some "win".

link

And the Chinese are also saying little. This is their traditional way but I imagine a lot of smug smiles on Chinese faces.

China will never give up Taiwan because it is legally part of its territory. The only question is "when" and "how"…

Taiwan makes 98% of the world's semiconductors. Control those and you control the modern world. I would say that's a tempting reason for China.

There's not much benefit overtly helping the PRC in a pacific war. Share intel and trade would be about it.

@smithsco

The manufacture of semiconductors is a MIND BOGGINGLY complicated and hyper fragile business. It requires the inputs of thousands of companies in dozens of countries to keep the gadgets flowing. Some of these companies are at the extreme leading edge of the most excruciatingly eye wateringly sophisticated technologies mankind has ever created. Some of these companies are mom and pop operations who do only one thing, in only one place.

IF the PRC managed to get hold of Taiwan with no damage to Taiwanese infrastructure or manufacturing capacity, it would still require only one or two companies (not countries), anywhere in the global supply chain, to refuse to do business with them, to turn the entire Taiwanese megametamonolith to so much disappointment.

AI, electric cars and the green revolution are all shiny ideas, but The PRC seemes determined to dump a stanky Ole floater in the community pool of progress. Ya might wanna invest in several 2025 vintage phones, tablets and laptops, to tide you thru to when all this gets sorted out.

May we all live in interesting times.

May we all live in interesting times.

No doubt some of the most interesting in my 68 years …