"VDH on China" Topic

link

A survey of economic and geopolitical strengths and weaknesses.

from the conclusion:

In terms of self-sufficiency, the U.S. is the world's largest oil and gas producer. China has four times America's population but only a third of its oil and gas production. China is desperately trying to catch the U.S. militarily but remains behind in both the quality and quantity of its manpower and munitions. It will take a decade or more to match the U.S. all-nuclear submarine fleet, eleven huge nuclear aircraft carriers, the sophistication and number of 4,000 fighters, bombers, and support aircraft, and the 5,000-6,000 nuclear weapons and the American nuclear triad delivery system.

. . .

In sum, if the Trump administration can conclude first-round—good enough but not yet perfect— trade deals in the next few weeks with major EU countries, Japan, and other Asian and Pacific powerhouses, and then redirect to China, it will gain both political support and economic advantage. It also must message strategically, given that China, for a half-century, has waged a quiet trade war that has now birthed a loud reaction. So, the administration must remember that the current status quo is the aberration, and its correction is a return to normalcy.

After all, in the end, the EU and Asian nations should know the difference between their protective and rules-based ally, with whom they have run up huge and unfair surpluses, and a rogue bully, whose flagrant violations of trade norms and unfair tariffs have ensured them large trade deficits. And if they don't calibrate their economic self-interest, but act emotionally, then they should at least consider realpolitik facts, such as which nation has the larger economy, the more open political system, and the largest and most lethal military that, in extremis, would come to their aid—against a bullying China.

Putin is a fool. Ukraine and NATO are no danger to Russia. The danger to Russia is the same danger all nations in the West face. Radical Islam and Communist China.

Russia has been successfully invaded from the East in the past. I keep waiting for Russia to become so weak that China moves into Siberia to protect ethnic Chinese.

Mike

I would be more optimistic if the US had a coherent policy in mind. Now, it consists of bragging about all the nations that are kissing our ass. Not the most diplomatic turn of phrase.
And in the meantime, China is playing Good Guy to those offended.

I remember a Tom Clancy novel where Russia joined NATO to deter China. I've seen Roadrunner vs Coyote cartoons that had more realistic scenarios.

There is a coherent policy in mind, and the current POTUS tells you what it is. The goal is reciprocal trade deals, in the case of most nations. I think with China the goal is collapse or reduce the power of the CCP by forcing an economic confrontation on US-favorable terms.

In general, I think that what's finally happening is the correction that should have happened in the 1990s at the end of the Cold War.

Throughout the Cold War the US maintained a policy of subsidizing global trade both directly (enabling and tolerating tariffs on US products) and indirectly (creating and maintaining the global trade system from GATT to the WTO) in order to help allies maintain economic growth to avoid backsliding into a Weimar Republic economy that could lead to the rise of Communist or Fascist regimes.

At the same time the US created and maintained the global security order, and we spent some $23 USD TRILLION on national security and when we take Korea and Vietnam into account, sustained over 500,000 casualties to defeat the USSR.

Then we won. The USSR went away. But all of our Cold War structures, agencies and polices did not really change. In fact, with the threat of the USSR gone, affluent allies like Germany and Britain essentially abandoned their own defenses and shifted that burden to the US while also maintaining their own beneficial and trade imbalances with the US. To put it in perspective -- at the height of the Cold War the German Army had some 500,000 troops…and now they have less that 70,000 troops.

So how do we correct this? Is there a more elegant and nicer way to do that? I dunno…the reaction from our "allies" is like when you cut off a freeloader from your stuff. We're cutting off the credit card and taking the keys to the car away, and asking them to pay rent on the guest house because we can't afford it any more and the main house is falling apart and needs care, and they are all furious and spitting threats, but most have come around to cut a deal now.

So right now, except for China and a few pro-CCP countries, there is no tariff war. That's why the markets bounced back up, but also why there's still uncertainty and why the CCP is flooding the world with social media spend and paid influencers, and pushing allied media and politicians in the West to carry water for them.

CCP controlling American social media! Say it anent so.

You can always count on the TDS parrot to squawk.

A nice piece of fantasy from a right-wing leaning source.
It *might* have had some wings if there had of been a coherant US policy that sought the co-operation of America's allies rather than attempting to bully & strong arm them over delusional claims of unfair trade balances. The Trump regime has foolishly played right into China's ambitions.

The issue is now trust. Who trusts the Chinese? No-one & that's a given. But the problem is, who can now trust the Americans? They are now in this on their own – a major & mind-boggling fall from grace in a few short weeks.

From the Financial Review: link

"The American market represents only about 14 per cent of Chinese exports. Joerg Wuttke, the former head of the European Chamber of Commerce in Beijing, argues that American tariffs are "inconvenient, but it's not going to be a threat to the economy … It's a $US14 trillion to $US15 trillion economy and the exports to the US are $US550 billion."

The White House keeps suggesting plaintively that Chinese President Xi Jinping should pick up the phone and call. But with Trump in headlong retreat, there is no incentive for the Chinese leader to talk – let alone plead for mercy.

An authoritarian system – tightly controlled by the Chinese Communist Party – is also probably better prepared to absorb a period of political and economic pain than the US, where economic turmoil swiftly translates into political pressure.

Xi is perfectly capable of making bad mistakes of his own. China's handling of the COVID-19 pandemic proved that. But the Chinese have been preparing for a trade showdown with the US for a long time – and have thought through their options.

By contrast, the White House is making it up as it goes along."

It looks like the US is losing the battle, will lose the war.

There is a coherent policy in mind, and the current POTUS tells you what it is.

"I love comedy writing."
Spake (squawked?) the TDS parrot. (I voted for T, twice. But not thrice. I guess I'm deranged. 🤷)
Well, I still think that T squawking "They're kissing my ass!" is just a tad undiplomatic. But what do I know?

CCP controlling American social media! Say it anent so.

Oh man -- have you not noticed the huge uptick in social media posts about how awesome China is? Look, ASTOUNDING CHINESE SUPER GUN! Or how craaazzyyy Trump is, with some lefty economist parroting the CCP party line? They don't even have to be formally allied to create an echo chamber -- the CCP hates Trump, the Democrats and Media hate Trump and both are defacto allies of convenience against his policies.

And btw, this has become high stakes for the CCP! Xi is flailing, he's trying whatever he thinks will work to force Trump to stop as his economy is in freefall.

A nice piece of fantasy from a right-wing leaning source.
It *might* have had some wings if there had of been a coherant US policy that sought the co-operation of America's allies rather than attempting to bully & strong arm them over delusional claims of unfair trade balances. The Trump regime has foolishly played right into China's ambitions.

Where ya been?!? Most of the countries facing reciprocal tariffs are now at the negotiating table with the US. It's only a few CCP-aligned Socialist regimes supporting China right now -- heck, Xi even travelled personally to Vietnam to try and carve them away from talks with the US, and it looks like he FAILED.

So, rather than respected historian Victor Davis Hanson being "right-leaning" being wrong, perhaps you're allowing your emotions to influence your thinking?

*Demise of the Dollar: Not gonna happen, the transparently traded dollar is still stronger than any other currency and the Chinese Yuan is subject to State controls and value manipulation.

*The end of Global trade? No -- but it will be different since Trump is rightfully trying to detach the West from China. There may well be MORE trade between non-China aligned nations, while China still hides behinds it protectionist, mercantilist walls

*Investors pulling out of the US? Not happening, in fact we see investments coming into the US at a record pace. The US is still the strongest, safest economy to invest in.

Well, I still think that T squawking "They're kissing my ###!" is just a tad undiplomatic. But what do I know?

Yep, totally undiplomatic. And…so what? I don't really care anymore about "decorous speech," especially by the people screwing the United States.

SB, you have to stop believing the T-propaganda. Not true. Every * point you made is laughably false.

Victor Davis Hanson is a conservative political commentator. Sufferer from TIS. If he said it was a nice day, I'd stick my head out the window to check.

I decided a while back it's a total waste of time presenting the facts & the likely outcome to the "Usual Suspects'. I appreciate you chaps are using the Ostrich Strategy because things are getting so awful. Facing the harsh truth is difficult.

The writing is on the wall. I wish it wasn't so. I'd like to be wrong. And all we have to do is wait & not wait long. Sadly, it won't be good.

I won't bother to argue further – don't take that as a 'win'. We only need to wait.

China Uncensored on China :)

"China is DESPERATE! Trump Tariffs Cut Deep"

YouTube link

Other interesting China watcher channels:

Lei's Real Talk: YouTube link

China Observer: YouTube link

I remember way back when VDH was "merely" an expert in hoplite warfare. That's when it devolved into biting and eye gouging. Interesting.
Then, he wrote a book ("The Western Way of War" ?) where he posited that nations who used bows, versus Real Men Weapons like pikes or swords were not really serious about War.
After that book, I could never take him seriously.

Then he fell back on his cranky California farmer persona where people don't work hard anymore. Especially those immigrants!

SOMEHOW he is now an expert on China.
Hell, I was an AutoCAD drafter, a Safety Manager and an Xfinity salesman. I also worked one summer smashing cast iron pipe with a 10lb hammer. To quote Robert Baratheon, "Gods, I was strong then!" I believe that makes me just as qualified to comment as VDH.
I'm still puzzled as to how he became an expert on everything.

I do not fault the True Believers.
But I haven't seen such strong arguments for Infallibility since Leo XIII. Or Pius VI.

I'm going to fall back on my old rant about "I did my research!"
That means Googling a topic, and then going to the websites that you know in advance you will agree with.

+1 Ochoin.

VDH is not an expert on China's military relative to the US. If he was he would not be so sure of himself, or use the figures he uses, which ignore real world issues like projection of force, weakening alliances, or the reliability and credibility of the US in foreign affairs.

We do not sound like we would come to anyone's aid right now as we role back our global presence. We don't even look much like we are rules based with so many legal questions about governance flying around.

His simplistic advice to our nearly former allies is….not very helpful to anyone.

Trump's numbers on trade are inaccurate and manipulated. His trade war is not nuanced enough to consider the domino effect of disrupting the global economy. Example…Bringing back auto parts manufacturing makes no business sense. It is too expensive and will take too long to get the robots running. Few jobs. Maybe our cars will eventually look like those on the streets of Havana. Global trade and tech are so interconnected that a subtler approach might work better. Tearing everything down at once – not good for America IMO. Or penguins.

Or penguins.

About that -- turns out "Penguin Island" is a major source of commercial Chilean Sea Bass fishing, and under current commercial fishing regs the islands are declared as the "product origin" for Australian fishing companies, which is several million $$ per year. That took all of a minute of Google-fu to find out. So surely, ALL of the media "journalists" and late night "comedians" pitching this line KNOW and are lying to you.

So why don't you do your OWN RESEARCH? Anyways…this move is also part of a broader attempt to end a trick used by China to avoid tariffs and duties where they have been using other nations and places as a cut-out, basically "exporting" stuff on paper to Nation/Area 1, and then Nation/Area 1 "resells" and "exports" that stuff to the US to bypass duties and such.

just as qualified to comment as VDH.
I'm still puzzled as to how he became an expert on everything.

Because he opines from a rational, common-sense world view that is sadly lacking in many today.

You mean he agrees with you. 😄

Penguin Island. Well then it's interesting that as soon as this became the butt of jokes, the admin itself didn't seem to know this information….

I was reading about the penguin thing the next day, that the island was used as a way to get around tariffs. The Trump people knew that.

Why did they not tell us it was a sea bass issue? Classified is whatever they want these days. And with all due respect, how do you know who knew what, doc?

VDH is a right wing opinion writer, sometimes angry, not objective, but a fan favorite. How long can we keep up our military superiority in this regulated market? We are not going back to the 50s. We need stuff. If the Chip Bill is nullified, what then? My guess is that the tariffs will eventually resume pre-Trump levels, victory declared.

US oil and gas production is in corporate hands and sold around the world to enrich its owners. There must be a couple of conservatives left who believe in the free market.

But whatever, China imports a lot of oil over a very long and vulnerable supply line across the Indian Ocean. A small force of USN units could cut this off immediately in a war, as the range of the Chinese navy is inadequate. The Russian pipeline will not be enough.

Trump is not honest about coal. It's too expensive to be brought back into production for power. Nobody will go for it. The Chinese are far behind in efficient energy. Coal drives the highest electric costs of any fuel.

You mean he agrees with you. 😄�;

The put forth your own opinion, yes? Then we can discuss why you think the way you do, etc. Otherwise it seems, since you labeled him, automatic dismissal 'cause he's not in your camp.

Why did they not tell us it was a sea bass issue?

They explained, nobody in the media cared.

It is hard to get a clear picture of the trade relationship between the Heard and McDonald Islands and the US.

According to export data from the World Bank, the islands have, over the past few years, usually exported a small amount of products to the US.

But in 2022 the US imported $1.4 USDm (A$2.3m; £1.10 GBPm) from the territory, nearly all of it unnamed "machinery and electrical" products.

So aside from Chilean Sea Bass, the Penguins are evidently manufacturing "machinery and electrical" products -- presumably out of eggshells, guano and seaweed.

link

Another flyspeck island in the Tasman Sea, Norfolk Island, shows about $1 USD Million in exports in "leather goods" to the US. The Norfolk governor says no such exports occurred -- but they are on the books with US Customs.

Chinese cut-out game. They played an electronic shell game, "exporting" leather goods to Norfolk Island and then those leather goods get reclassified as Australian territory-origin products being exported to the US from Norfolk Island to avoid tariffs and duties. Nothing ever got sent to Norfolk Island, it's all a digital ruse -- stuff went from China to the US.

same thing with the Penguin islands. A Chinese shell game to designate products as being exported from someplace else to beat tariffs and duties.

'Nowhere on Earth is safe'

Apart from Heard Island and McDonald Islands, there are some other unusual places that have attracted Trump's tariffs. Some of these external Australian territories include Cocos (Keeling) Islands, Christmas Island and Norfolk Island.

Norfolk Island, with a population of less than 2,200 people, has been slapped with 29 per cent tariffs, which is around 19 per cent higher than the rest of Australia.

What do they pay it on?

According to the data by the Observatory of Economic Complexity, according to a report by The Guardian, Norfolk Island exported $655,000 USD worth of goods to the US, with its main export being US $413,000 USD worth of leather footwear.

However, George Plant, the island's administrator doesn't agree with the data, stating, "There are no known exports from Norfolk Island to the United States and no tariffs or known non-tariff trade barriers on goods coming to Norfolk Island."

link

What is all this a-howling and a-butt-hurting about:

run up huge and unfair surpluses

As the man says – a deals a deal. By all means change the business model for today and tomorrow but stop moaning about the past. Spilt Milk.(*)

---
and this bull-sheet:

affluent allies like Germany and Britain essentially abandoned their own defenses and shifted that burden to the US

The fall of the iron curtain precluded spending money on defence. Putler has changed all that now of course with the SVO into Ukraine(**).

IMHO The UK punches well above it's weight in airpower and our Gubmint has the attitude to use it.

NB(*) We were made to pay through the nose for the privilege of possessing Trident – and we can't even launch without the say-so of the Yanquie.

NB(**) Putler made his move after a certain son-in-law visited Moscow to do #deals#. Around the same time a file was discovered to have been in a certain Floridian property that contained details of an allied country's Nuculear doctrine. (Not UK – everyone knows they can only deploy on Uncle Sam's say-so)

Putler needed to know if the French would deploy nukes on any other countries soil other than Germany, eg Poland, Ukraine, LAtvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Finland, etc.

a deals a deal.

"Until a better one comes along." …

"Until a better one comes along." …

…zactly.

Incidentally, I was looking through my house for any Yanquie-made wares and remembered my desk was made in Lamar, Missouri by O'Sullivan Industries. Very nice finish with great fittings. Much nicer than our home-manufactured MDF muck.

So – thanks Yanks.

… automatic dismissal 'cause he's not in your camp.

Whole lot of that going on ‘round here, hainna?
Like I said above, "Research" means going to sites you agree with, and who agree with you.

I've been reading VDH for years, starting with his opinions on hoplite warfare.
He started getting dodgy with The Western Way of War.
The Soul of Battle just proved that … he didn't suffer from writer's block.
That's when I decided that I had more important things to waste my money on than his scribbles.

SB, you have to stop believing the T-propaganda. Not true. Every * point you made is laughably false.

Guess we'll see.

That's when I decided that I had more important things to waste my money on than his scribbles.

OK

Surely the penguins eat all the sea bass. But they have no comment. Sounds idyllic.

I've never had Sea Bass.
How does it taste? Is it worth the tariffs?

Take out a loan and try some!

I have, nothing special. They have them as a specialty at a restaurant down on the beach. Cooked in a leaf. More expensive than other fish common to the area. Ok, but nothing special.

We should all be concerned that the Penguins have achieved a high order sentience to be able to manufactured and export machinery and electrical products!

"in 2022 the US imported $1.4 USD USDm (A$2.3m; £1.10 GBPm) from the territory, nearly all of it unnamed "machinery and electrical" products."

So – thanks Yanks.

We try … 😎

How does it taste?

I ate it a while ago. I liked it … tasted … like fish. I'd eat it again if I go to a place that serves it.

YouTube link

Hah! They look so cute and innocent, but they're really monopolizing Rare Earths! (Rare ices?)

The penguins know good fish…but if they are helping to sneak cheap electronics to America, maybe we should start eating them!

Not even a bloody option Tort! Stinking do gooder environmentalists! Too cute! 🥰 If they looked like possums, no one would care. 😉

"While eating penguin meat might sound unusual, it was historically a survival food for Antarctic explorers. Today, eating penguins is strictly prohibited by the Antarctic Treaty System"

Ahhhh they taste like …… chicken. Isn't that what the cannibals said about Biden's Uncle? 😉

"Those who have eaten penguins have described the taste as oily chicken or a mix of beef, cod, and duck."

I the words of Jeremiah Wright:

Australia!! Your penguins have come home to roost!!

🙂

…a mix of beef, cod, and duck.

Ah. The traditional Bolognese Ragú of Tierra del Fuego.
But Vincenzo does not approve.

Biden's uncle. LOL.

Yikes, I won't be ordering the Penguins or the Biden's Uncle! Just a burger please….

Protected! Did not know this. I never seem to run across one in the woods here.