"China Could Attack Pearl Harbor and the West Coast" Topic

Before 1940, Pearl Harbor had been something of a forward base. This started to change as events drifted toward war with Japan. The United States began to build up its forces in the Philippines, then a U.S. dependency, and it implicitly made two assumptions. The first assumption was that if war came, it would primarily be in the western Pacific. Second, Hawaii was now a rear area and therefore secure. On 7 December 1941, the Japanese Navy showed these assumptions were wrong.

Could the United States be making a similar miscalculation today?…

Proceedings Magazine: link

Subject: Chilling pics show China's giant D-Day style INVASION BARGES moored off coast as fears grow they could attack Taiwan | The US Sun


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I think it would be a big ask. They have not had a war in ages and training is no substitute for the real thing. I'd suggest they have the capacity to do it, but would they have the capability? They would have to strike first which would invite retaliation and cement US capability as a massive threat.
I don't see them capable of a water-borne invasion whilst holding a strategic flank guard.

The Chinese might not be thinking entirely logically about this. Their system is encouraging their people to think of their country as destined to dominate the world, based on culture or race. It is not dissimilar to how Iran looks at the world, although their view is explicitly religious.

The Chinese could hit vital bases on Midway, Guam, American Samoa and our Australian Allie's. They cold easily hit Alaskan bases.

Hard to read the Chinese but I think they'll play the 'Long Game'.
Time, they think, is on their side and their chances will improve with shifting circumstances.

For example, the US global network of alliances is currently under some strain.

The "Australian allie's" (sic), for example, isn't entirely thrilled with the US at the moment.

YouTube link

NB Senator Lambie is a very popular independent and not speaking for the Government or Opposition but does reflect a community view. I personally would be sad if this viewpoint gained traction.
I'm fairly sure the Chinese would not be sad at all.

"The Chinese might not be thinking entirely logically about this"

The tone of this is "big boys in China might try to steal my lunch money". So please, Elon, don't cut our programs, or even better give us more from the billions you are saving the US taxpayer

If China had planned to start a war for Taiwan, it would have done so when the US was tied up in conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza. Now this situation has been missed. For now, China is only engaged in demonstrations…

The problem with the Chinese is their inability to build military alliances. Peculiarities of their mentality. It has been a closed society for thousands of years. They are ready to accept those who turn to them, but they themselves do not know how to become the leader of such an alliance. However, China is now engaged in normalizing relations with India in order to exclude its participation in a possible future war. They have resumed negotiations on demarcation of borders in disputed territories.

In fact, the war will not be (if it happens) for Taiwan, but for the place of the leader in the world. The very reason for starting it is not important. Also, I think the beginning will consist of proxy wars with the help of proxy forces from both China and the US. So we are waiting for the escalation of various conflicts in Southeast Asia.

Besides, there is always a chance that the parties will be able to come to an agreement…

The 3 most "powerful" countries in the world are all currently "ruled" by mercurial autocrats enamored of their own peculiar visions.

2 of them are presiding over countries facing bleak futures. Xi is faced with a China that has little hope of remaining a "power" for much longer. It's economy is teetering on the edge of a debt catastrophe. Wage inflation has robbed it of its position as the world's manufacturer. Many/most of the western businesses that made China's industrial eruption of the 90s have left. China imports more than half of its energy. China imports more than half its food. China imports more than half of the fertilizers it needs to grow what it can.

Xi knows its a horse race to see which goes first. Himself? He's 71. Or, China itself. His only item of unfinished business is Taiwan. Projections suggest he'll try about 2028.

If he does, ANY Blue Water navy can blockade the Malacca Strait with a handful of surface vessels. In short order China's lights go out and its' people begin to starve. But what does Xi care? He won't go hungry.

China has a sizable navy, but not a lot of it is really Blue Water. Moreover, much of it is influenced by Russian tech. China has to be watching how Russian tech is faring in Ukraine. They may be grappling with the worst case of plagiarist's remorse in history.

There is little China can gain from a preemptive strike, of any kind, on the US, especially in light of the current unpredictability of US foreign policy.

Even if China could take Taiwan, it'd be an empty victory. They can't run the top value semiconductor industry, and the Taiwanese would be unlikely to help. The semiconductor industry is the most globalized tech system. Inputs from 14000 vendors from dozens of countries. If any handful of worldwide vendors refuse to deal with Beijing, Taiwan becomes like the rabbits after Lennie has been at them.

Already, efforts are underway to reshore vital steps in the semiconductor industry to less vulnerable locales.

We're living in a time when everything depends on whether one of the autocrats goes off the rails, and, if so, when.

Maybe an interesting TMP Poll would be a Deadpool. Who first?

TRUMP – oldest
XI – most isolated
PUTIN – most hanging out to dry
🙁

China can thank the West for solving its problems with food, fertilizers and energy. Russia has all of these in abundance and will provide them to the Chinese without any doubts after the West dragged it into the war in Ukraine.
China owns 70% of the world's explored rare earth metals. Will the West have enough of the remaining resource?))) We'll see.
You focus too much on personalities. They come and go, but the economic interests of countries remain… Forever.

Your fleets are largely outdated and now their value is no higher than the value of the Chinese fleet. This is exactly what the results of the war in Ukraine showed. However, this is only an assumption, but it is very possible, we will find out soon.

Cuprum…you are very poorly informed about the "outdated" ships of the USN vs China's, IMO. I have posted often on this and won't repeat myself, but China remains well behind the USN in key capabilities. They are actively expanding but have not reached parity in quality. I would take US carrier ops, aircraft, and pilots over the Chinese any day. Also subs, experience, training, tech, crews, weapons, range, endurance, key capital ships, logistics, amphibious, etc.

China attacking Pearl sounds like a movie. But it pays to be prepared.

HMS Exeter +1

Give me Biden in the pool.

In the long term, Russia has more to fear from China than the US does. That said, the US has more to fear from China than it does from Russia because our interests don't necessarily have to conflict with Russia's.

Tortorella, I absolutely agree that the Chinese are inferior to the US in the quality of ships and in the training of crews. And, naturally, in the number of aircraft carriers and in total displacement. But I assume that China will not conduct offensive naval operations against the US. The maximum is an attack on Taiwan. And for defensive operations near its own shores, its capabilities are quite sufficient. On the US side, only three Pacific fleets will be able to participate in the battle (at least for a long time), plus allies, but this is small change relative to the US fleet. China will not only act with its entire fleet, but will also have the support of its entire coastal aviation and coastal anti-ship weapons. And China, by the way, is the only country that has modern ballistic mobile anti-ship systems with a firing range of about 1,700-2,000 km. Which makes any AUG quite vulnerable. In addition, let's see how sea and air drones will perform in a naval war. But I repeat, since both countries have nuclear weapons, they will most likely avoid direct confrontation and the war will be conducted using hybrid methods.

Kevin C, I don't see any point in China attacking Russia. China can easily buy everything it needs from Russia, and at the same time, Russia is more than reliable protection for it from the North.

Caprum

"The problem with the Chinese is their inability to build military alliances. Peculiarities of their mentality. It has been a closed society for thousands of years. They are ready to accept those who turn to them, but they themselves do not know how to become the leader of such an alliance. However, China is now engaged in normalizing relations with India in order to exclude its participation in a possible future war. They have resumed negotiations on demarcation of borders in disputed territories."

🤔
Maybe this isn't just China, it strikes me that this is an issue with all Eastern Asian countries that aspire to Empire. They conquer and rule by domination and fear. Mongols, Japanese even the Chinese. So an alliance of equality, is an alien concept. There is them and there are inferiors. I believe that has changed in Japan, but right now they don't aspire to Empire.

Just a thought

Guam is the new Pearl Harbor -- the Chinese will try to destroy the US bases there in any opening attack, and they will also launch a full spectrum assault on the US proper with mass destructive cyberattacks and physical sabotage to crash the US communications and power grid, while launching cyber attacks and economic attacks to crash the US economy.

I have read Chinese articles written by their general staff and the say the Japanese had the right strategy, to take out US bases in Hawaii and the Philippines, but didn't go far enough in attacking the US mainland. Their feeling is they can deliver a knockout blow to the US in one surprise attack that will crash us back to the Stone Age and let them run amok in the Pacific while we collapse into a Mad Maxian post apoc hellscape (I recall reading one paper saying if they could keep the US from recovering modern infrastructure for a year it would kill off 90% of Americans, and wouldn't that be great! And of course, somehow the US doesn't nuke 'em in return.

Well of course it is possible. But many things have changed since '41. It is not that easy to invade somewhere crossing oceans, etc. without orbital assets, etc. seeing them. And we have assets in the region that could react very quickly.

Plus the Chicoms have never been a great sea power, per se. Or never has done an amphib invasion …

@35thOVI re Biden

Sucker bet.

Hey he's close now. I bet I win. 😉

Cuprum, the Chinese do not yet have the amphibious capacity to invade Taiwan except by adding civilian craft, the naval militia. There are a number of difficult tactical challenges awaiting them there if they can get enough force to the island, facing some new weapons that would pose transport problems, a narrow beach head, and generally rugged terrain. Not to mention the defensive buildup going on there, which is still smaller than it should be.

They have fuel, supply, and endurance issues. They are dependent on oil, 80% comes from places like Iran, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, the US. Not just Russia. The US can stop this traffic with a relative small number of ships in the Indian Ocean and elsewhere. The Chinese cannot project the force they need to support an attack on the US mainland, IMO, or keep their oil supply lines open except the Russian pipeline. None of their carriers can move far from their coast..they actually fly supplies to them from land. No battle tested aircraft or personnel.

All of this comes from a lot of reading and some guesswork and assumptions. I am no expert.

The Chinese general staff is both corrupt and political. Almost all appointees by Xi, who has no military background. They are of unknown quality, like their army and navy. They know the US can deploy major undersea submarine strength on their coast indefinitely and the US 7th Fleet lives in their backyard. Japan is rebuilding their navy.

The amount of planning and coordination needed for the operations we are talking about are pretty complex for forces and commanders with no actual experience. The Chinese need to give the appearance of a fleet in being to preserve the balance of power. IMO it's too soon for them to risk their forces.
They need more time. But the USN continues to build as well.

I am no expert, not a professional, just do a lot of reading. I could be way wrong..I only have public sources. The Chinese are THE threat in my opinion.But they have their problems just as we do.

I believe we need drone carriers and have advocated that for awhile. Also swarms of drone subs to surround the fleets. Suicide drone subs in large part, hopefully cheap and plentiful. We need to exploit AI to its fullest extent, which I believe the current admin is planning. We need to also use our space advantage, which we have sadly let full behind. I'm really interested as to what that unmanned that just returned, was really up to. Not just what they have leaked.

Lastly we have got to implement a viable missile defense system. Again something they are talking about.

I agree that in a battle for Taiwan, China has the home field advantage. Their land bases are a huge advantage, especially if our CV's are knocked out.

In all the wargame scenarios, we lose if we try and defend it. I wonder if it would be easier to let it fall, destroy anything worthwhile beforehand and then once they control it, destroy their ability to supply it any longer. Without us initially losing our fleets, planes and manpower, trying to defend it.

Sabotage their food supply as well? It could backfire, true. But then again, they have had no problem destroying many of our forests and crops with their insects lately. Not to mention Covid. It would be only fair.

All this without resulting in nukes…. Right. 🙄

My thoughts, as long as XI and his immediate cronies thought they could survive it, they wouldn't give a d##n what happened to the peasants. Has that not been the mindset of the leadership of China forever?

Always believe your opponent has abilities they may not have. Do not underestimate them. But Don't be a McClellan and let your overestimates hinder your efforts. Just assume it possible. If you are wrong, you will be pleasantly surprised and over prepared. So assume their Navy is capable and try to over prepare ours. There is always a fine line here.

"thought they could survive it, they wouldn't give a d##n what happened to the peasants"

I think that's an attribute of any of the three mercurial autocrats Exeter mentioned.

I disagree

I'm with ochoin on that thought.

I disagree with your disagreement.
It is the nature of autocrats, no matter what lip service they pay to the Common Man, to expend them as loose change.

Ahhh but if true, it can be said of all leaders of all countries. Not just 3.

Reading comprehension? The key word was "auotocrat". So not true in democracies.

Then the autocrat description is incorrect about 1 of the 3. Cuprum might disagree with one of the others, but that's up to him.

Autocrat:
"person, often a ruler, who holds and exercises absolute power, often ruling in a dictatorial or oppressive manner."

Your view and some others, are based on your opinions and is not the opinion of others. Obviously not by the majority in our country.

I would view a government locking down ones country, forcing the use of masks, forcing vaccinations on the unwilling, forcing schools to close….. as autocratic. But that would be my opinion.

To be honest, I doubt even Xi is a true autocrat by definition. As even he can be overruled by some in China when done in concert.

FYI

From the Australian Government
Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade

"Australia is a representative democracy where voters elect candidates to carry out the business of government on their behalf. All Australian citizens over the age of 18 must vote in elections."

None of us, with maybe the exception of some areas of Switzerland, are "true" democracies.

"Direct democracy or pure democracy is a form of democracy in which the electorate directly decides on policy initiatives, without elected representatives as proxies, as opposed to the representative democracy model which occurs in the majority of established democracies."

One of the things that must be taken into account with Autocrats is free expression… in the three examples given here… I challenge you to stand on a corner of your street shouting against one of them… only in one will the police not take you in the air the minute you protest and then have to go looking for you because you either disappear or fall from a fifth floor or end up in an internment camp in the middle of nowhere…

Armand

35thOVI, I disagree about the Mongols. At one time, they managed to create an empire that was larger than the empire of Alexander the Great (which, in my opinion, is an incredible achievement for nomads) and more effective. Which lasted 150 years, that is, an order of magnitude longer than Alexander's empire. The creation and preservation of a multinational empire is impossible without the ability to unite peoples of different cultures and religions into a military and economic union.
Equality in the Middle Ages was quite conditional – there were different principles of social organization and, accordingly, different ways of interaction in it.

Regarding the conflict with China – its demands are largely justified. In my opinion, it is always easier to come to an agreement than to fight. Put both revolvers on the table and remember – if you get into a fight, it is very possible that someone else will come and take all the money from the table… Starting a fight that can be avoided without a clear advantage is stupid.

SBminisguy, in my opinion, this is still a rather dubious plan. Such an attack is an unconditional start of war. Moreover, an attack on nuclear deterrent facilities (even a cyber attack) will lead to an immediate retaliatory nuclear strike. Disabling the entire nuclear triad with cyber attacks and other indirect methods is unrealistic. And even if the United States uses 10% of its nuclear potential, China will not be able to conquer the United States.

Tortorella, I am not an expert either. But I do not see any reason why China would want to invade the US. This is not the Chinese mentality. These guys always play the "long game". They would rather "absorb" countries located near them and not only (for example, they are very interested in South America, Africa, even Europe). They will entangle and bind them with economic ties, align them in the wake of their policy. They will try to entangle the US in small, sluggish conflicts around the world. They will work to undermine the economy… There will be no direct fight for a long time. The same is true for Taiwan – there is a pro-Chinese party there. I assume that it will be counted on. However, if a convenient moment presents itself, the Chinese can attack Taiwan directly. And I believe that they are unlikely to be embarrassed by any losses… In addition, they build ships and create military equipment much faster than the US does. Let it be less sophisticated equipment and an army, but quantity in itself is quality.
Incidentally, this is precisely why China is interested in continuing wars or conflicts in which the US is involved. And also in preserving the EU as a new enemy of the US and an indirect ally of China.

ochoin, there are no more democratic countries. Democracy has fallen into a lethargic sleep… There is an imitation of democracy. Now in Europe, leaders, with the help of various political tricks, act against the will of the majority of their own population.

Tango01, here in Russia after the period of "democracy" in the 90s, several jokes about it appeared.
The first: "Democracy is when the dog's chain is made longer, but the food bowl is moved even further away. But at least he is allowed to bark as much as he wants"
The second: "Democracy is the dictatorship of democrats")))

Could the United States be making a similar miscalculation today?…

Well as always it depends on the CinC and his admin. What are their priorities? #1 should be national defense. As that is the most important thing a republic's leadership can do.

But Don't be a McClellan and let your overestimates hinder your efforts.

Interestingly the Russian military has proven to be marginal at best. The Norks supporting the Russians appear to be no better.

The Chicoms the last time they saw combat was Vietnam in '79. They appeared not to have learned too many lessons from the Korean War.

But when it comes to China … you never can fight a war on their territory. The reasons should be obvious …

However, it is a good SOP not to underestimate your enemy. But if they turn out to be "marginal" in combat operations … take full advantage of them.

the Chinese do not yet have the amphibious capacity to invade Taiwan except by adding civilian craft, the naval militia. There are a number of difficult tactical challenges awaiting

Exactly … The US Military is the most deployable force able to project power worldwide. Well we used to be …

"ochoin, there are no more democratic countries. Democracy has fallen into a lethargic sleep… There is an imitation of democracy. Now in Europe, leaders, with the help of various political tricks, act against the will of the majority of their own population."

Ralph, that's ingenuous nonsense. It may well be true of the US – I'll leave that up to the apologists like 35 – but you have no idea about other countries.

ochoin, maybe. But only as much as you have no idea about Russia ;-)

Legion 4, video of how they lie to you about how Russians actually fight:

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Video from the same author on the topic of the thread:

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"ochoin, there are no more democratic countries. Democracy has fallen into a lethargic sleep…

It's true here too, Ochoin. Otherwise the current government could not have won power when it received less than 1/3 of the primary vote. It won on preference deals and funding splinter parties, and even claims a mandate- when 2/3 of the electorate had effectively voted against it! The same happened under Howard, too- preferences got the loser into the chair. Parliament and the senate aren't even operating the way the constitution says they should- the senate is supposed to act in the states' interest, and MP's are supposed to represent the people in their electorate, as I'm sure you know. But all they really do is represent their party organisations.

Democracy in Oz? No. A two-faction oligarchy at best, a complete cluster most of the time.

"It may well be true of the US – I'll leave that up to the apologists like 35"

"<ochoin> what an ugly thing to say? Does this mean we're not friends anymore? You know <ochoin>, if I thought you weren't my friend, I don't think I could bare it?"

Subject: Tombstone – Does this mean were not friends anymore? – Movie Spotlight – YouTube


YouTube link

Do you need a "Huckleberry"? 😉

Dal Gaven +1 thank you

35th,I think we have followed the mantra of being over-prepared just in case as far as the USN goes. TheUS military in general remains the best in the world despite the grumbling. our per capita spending is way ahead of our opponents, we have many pluses.

Wargaming a more or less conventional naval war with China apparently has produced results favorable to China over the US. For this to happen, some things have to be assumed.

The quality of Chinese leadership, tactics, weapons, training, etc. how good are they? Who would have air superiority? The rules decide for now, I suppose. Those new Chinese fighters look very familiar in configuration…did they steal enough of our plans to make them equivalent to ours? We see them messing with us all the time, but harassment is a limited tactic. Their new stealth bomber looks a little thrown together to me, but I know nothing about design.

Operating from your own coast may seem like an advantage until you realize that no food or oil is coming into your ports, and approaches have been seeded with remote detonation undersea mines, US sea drones, etc. And none of you exports get out except by land.

If we assume that US naval and their several allies have been driven halfway across the ocean, now what? The operating range of the two true Chinese carriers and the rest of the fleet is not much more than 1500 miles without refueling and resupply. They are extending this with their build-up of bases, but in general the carriers would, be laboriously supplied by air from China as I understand it.

The US also has cyber warfare capabilities. We also need to be careful not to underestimate our own capabilities. There is plenty going on that we do not know about, I am guessing.

I would like to remind you that China is a continental power, which means it retains all the opportunities to use land trade routes. And the most developed accessible transport system is the Russian one. In addition, Chinese merchant ships can use the Northern Sea Route, which passes mainly in Russian territorial waters. Russia can easily be China's trade gateway in the event of a clash between China and the United States. This is one of the reasons why the United States and the West wanted to replace the China-friendly regime in Russia with a pro-Western one, and when this failed, Trump is betting on normalizing relations with Russia. This is just an element of a future serious US-Chinese conflict. Russia is one of the key figures on the chessboard of the brewing confrontation.

Ralph, that's ingenuous nonsense. It may well be true of the US – I'll leave that up to the apologists like 35 – but you have no idea about other countries.

No I believe you are incorrect. No other nation in the world can pick up and deploy units in the large numbers as the USA can. By both sea and air.

Name one other nation that can move the number of assets the US can to project power. That is one of the Chicom's biggest weaknesses. They have the bodies, but they can't move in large numbers. Unless they can cross another nation's border. That is one of the reasons you never fight the Chicoms on their own lands.

OVI +1

Cuprum … I've watched the first video. Will watch the other later. So far I can say it is very well done. As far as graphics, footage, movie clips, etc. However, who do I believe ? What that Brit is saying fits pretty much what I had heard, read, etc. Albeit from mainly Western sources …

So I still remain not sure who to really believe ? I need to do more research, etc., watch the second video, etc.

Thanks for the intel …

Legion +1

Legion 4, well that's why I watch this channel, because the guy always gives links to the information he used. Moreover, from Western or neutral sources. In addition, he has not only complimentary information about the Russians. For example, his latest video talks about battles in a city that the Russians have long declared captured. In my opinion, he tries to be objective and he succeeds.

Cuprum…only 20% of oil going to China is Russian. Land routes are very long, costly for China. No more Starbucks in Siberia, a long ride. Russian help with land and sea routes are not efficient.

It is an entertaining read on the discussion of capabilities and what ifs that are available.
Thanks, these topics are what makes TMP interesting to me.

China is carefully avoiding any dependence on Russia. And this is right from China's point of view.
But building the necessary number of pipelines and oil pipelines, if necessary, is not a problem for China.
In Russia, the departed Starbucks chain was replaced by the Russian Stars Coffee. No one noticed the difference)))

Regarding the inefficiency of the Northern Sea Route – it's just ridiculous.

"It is interesting in this regard to turn to the calculations of a group of researchers from the Swedish Chalmers University of Technology, a number of British organizations, and the Dalian Maritime University. Formally, almost all of them are Western scientists, but in reality, five out of seven in this group are ethnic Chinese, whose interest in the Northern Sea Route is very characteristic. Their work is called "Cost-Benefit Analysis of a Trans-Arctic Alternative Route to the Suez Canal: A Method Based on High-Fidelity Ship Performance, Weather, and Ice Forecast Models." Authors: Zhiyuan Li, Li Ding, Luofeng Huang, Jonas Rinsbergs, Hui Gong, Nicolas Fournier and Zhenjiu Zhuang. The article was published in the Journal of Marine Science and Engineering (March 2023)….

… As a result, it turns out that in the summer, the route along the Suez costs 746.2 thousand dollars versus 602.1 thousand dollars for the Arctic option. The difference is 144.1 thousand dollars. In September, the contrast is much more striking. Instead of 732.9 thousand dollars, the operator will have to pay 488.9 thousand dollars. That is, saving 244 thousand dollars – a whole third of the cost! The authors of the article draw attention to the fact that the cost of fuel was determined at relatively low prices in 2021 and still made up the largest share – more than 40% of the total costs under consideration." And this is in peacetime conditions!

link

Looks great in the summer….still vulnerable to disruption by USN units. Land will be the only secure supply routes. Given that most oil shipments to China originate from the countries I mentioned, the Allies will find ways to block them.

, well that's why I watch this channel, because the guy always gives links to the information he used.

Well I still have to watch the second video. But I tend to be suspicious of much that comes out of Russia, China, etc. …

Old habits die hard being an old "Cold War Warrior" …

I tried replacement of internationally recognized brands in countries of autocrats who replaced them… a real piece of crap… can anyone believe that a McDonald's, a Starbuck's café, a KFC, a Taco Bell or Burger King can be easily replaced locally?… if that were the case, those companies wouldn't be world leaders… what are you trying to sell us?

Armand

Tango, I have no desire to convince you of anything. I have conveyed the information to you – and questions of your faith are not in my circle of interests.
If you don't want to – don't believe. It doesn't matter)))

Tortorella, an attack on transport ships in the waters of a neutral country… Well, that's not a great idea…