"What if scenarios: Polish or Finnish border or Baltics" Topic

I'm just thinking that a lot of our modelling of "Next War with Russia" scenarios has until now assumed NATO would be vs Russia. NATO appears to be disassembling with the US change in policy. It now looks like we should be designing scenarios with battles on the Finnish borders or Baltic states or Polish borders without any US forces against whatever Putin has left.

If the US allows Russia to win against Ukraine, as does seem likely right now, then its the next series of Putin aggressions that could be interesting to wargame. Probably the Defence Ministries across Europe are doing this right now!

Can we assume the US will at least continue to supply parts for their planes and equipment in EU nations hands? How far will the White House alliance with Russia extend? Surely on-going weapons sales and spare parts will be allowed or am I not understanding Trump/Hegseth/Gabbard etc?

So, against a clearly depleted and demoralised Russia could Finland stand alone? But surely the Swedes would help the Finns? Could be some interesting scenarios.

The UK and Germany have pledged to support the Baltic states but neither has a lot of forces to offer currently, maybe Poland might intervene? And both France and Italy do indeed seem to have some well equipped and capable forces that could show up in EU Orders of Battle against Russia.

And Poland vs Belorussia + Russia? The Poles seem pretty strong but a lot of their modern equipment is now American so a scenario would need to assume on-going supply of parts from the US? Or maybe US parts would come via the black market to Poland? Could the Poles deal with Belorussia + Russia? Maybe so. Putin's not got a lot left and his troops are a rabble now.

Could also include North Korean's as cannon fodder against Finn's or Swedes or Poles. It gets real interesting now that the US will be out of the picture.

I suspect NATO will continue in its present guise with possibly lacklustre interest from the US (apart from enjoying the money coming in from all those maintenance contracts, but seeing a reduction in purchases from Europe). If Russia crosses the Finnish border or hits the Baltic states I would expect to see Article 5 invokes, the Russian Baltic fleet and the enclave an Kaliningrad vaporise in short space of time and the Poles drive at Moscow, whilst the major NATO navies strike North to engage the Russian Northern Fleet (avoiding the SSBN bastions for obvious reasons)

Trump is just one man. He will be president for four more years. The president that replaces him may have a totally different view of the world and NATO. We may even get one who believes Putin is a dictator. NATO will survive.

I hope David Manley and Grattan54 are correct. I have never been so disappointed in a US president and that is saying a lot given his immediate predecessors.

The Baltic States are far and away the most likely target for Putins next expansion, now that the US have given them a green light. Land bridge to Kaliningrad and all that.

This particular scenario has been gamed many times, even on TV some years ago. Unfortunately it often ends with cans of instant sunshine being opened all over the place. In the TV game, poor old HMS Ocean got nuked.

How defendable the Baltics are depends entirely on the degree and timeliness of NATO intervention, the naval aspects are particularly interesting. Our group gamed this a few times at an operational level last year, only one of the three games didn't end in a nuclear exchange. Cheery stuff! Although personally I'm always a bit suspicious of the willingness of wargamers to deploy WMDs.

Employing nukes at the end of a wargame was a bad habit I saw used in every military wargame I participated in during the late Cold War. That's just how they all ended. Pretty uncreative if you ask me, but I was just a young Soldier.
Since I had some experience calculating nuclear weapons effects, I didn't share the enthusiasm for ending the Cold War with a nuclear exchange (and it gave me nightmares for years).

pjm

nsolomon99, a weak and demoralized Russia? Everything is exactly the opposite))) There are no more experienced and professional armies in modern warfare in the world now than the armies of Russia and Ukraine.

According to the concluded agreement, the North Koreans can only be used to protect Russian territory (as well as the Russians – to protect North Korea). If you want to see them on the gaming table, it should be a NATO attack on Russia.

I can still agree with Russia's interest in the Baltics – the Russians want a land corridor to the Kaliningrad region (although before the aggression of the West this issue was easily resolved without any problems by allocating a special railway line). But why does Russia need Finland? How can it be interesting to Russia? All territorial problems were resolved after the Second World War. Well, unless it starts to obstruct Russian maritime trade…

I think Poland can include Lithuania in its composition, as well as return Lvov and the adjacent territories. Why not eliminate this criminal legacy of the Stalinist regime))) Another interesting scenario – the new "rebel Lithuanian-Belarusian Division of Zeligowski" from the Polish army will occupy Vilnius again.

David Manley, I wonder if the Russians will respond to the attack on the Kaliningrad enclave with a nuclear strike or "Oreshnik"?

mckrok, even in peacetime there is a danger that a technical error can lead to the use of nuclear weapons. If there is a full-scale military action, in which opponents with nuclear weapons participate, then any missile launch, any attack on nuclear infrastructure or a submarine equipped with nuclear weapons will lead to a retaliatory strike. NATO has nuclear weapons even without the United States. This means that no conventional war will work. It will still turn into a nuclear conflict. The US will stay on the sidelines in this case. Wisely. Although they have their own opponent.

Laughable, really! This "experienced and professional" army has been unable, after 3 years of trying, to capture more than 20% of Ukraine!! The air force cant control the airspace, the Black Sea Fleet has been sunk or withdrawn, the army is using 60 year old T-64's because nothing else is left and Korean conscripts as cannon fodder because the only Russian tactic that works is to frontally assault Ukrainian positions and swamp them with bodies.

You'll only beat Ukraine because Putin has Trump running scared!

I've taken out my copy of SPI's "Next War" boardgame and I'm downgrading all the combat factors for the Warsaw Pact forces because we in the West clearly over-rated them back in the 70's and 80's. The planes dont work, the tanks blow up, the ammunition is faulty, the infantry is poorly trained.

But it makes for a fun scenario to throw Russian rabble against Finnish positions – feels like the Winter War 80 years ago.

Wiki – Основы геополитики: геополитическое будущее России – DUGIN 1997

This strange fantasy – which has taken an apparent hold on Ruzzian minds – notes:

- Finland should be absorbed into Russia. South to Republic of Karelia, North to Murmansk Oblast
- Latvia and Lithuania – Eurasian–Russian sphere -integrated into Russia
- Kaliningrad/Koenigsberg – Moscow–Berlin axis – Given back to Germany.
- Estonia should be given to Germany's sphere of influence.
- Belarus – part of Russia
- Ukraine – Annexed
- Western Ukraine (Volynia, Galicia, and Transcarpathia) -- independent federation of Western Ukraine
- Poland – splitting between German and Russian spheres
- Romania, North Macedonia, Serbia, "Serbian Bosnia", and -Greece – "Moscow the Third Rome"

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Without US involvement it is very doubtful the Ruzzians would pre-empt Nuculear use in Europe – they can use diplomacy instead.

Britian – extraterritorial floating base of the U.S – has useless nuculear toys that it has been mulcted to pay for without the ability to use them (ex US permission)(*).

The only European country with an independent Nuculear force is France. This may be the ally whose top secret files were left around a certain Floridian mansion. A certain son-in-law had business in Moscow and shortly afterwards the tanks rolled over the border.

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The most likely future scenario is that the Ruzzians move on Belarus (white russia) and somehow embroil an emboldened Poland – equipped with Korean K2 tanks, that then triggers the NATO trip-wire brigades.

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(*) Horrible real question – Wud present UK Gubment obey VP JDV's order to launch Trident aginst Petersburg? 'Coz disrespek?

It is also funny that NATO, having provided Ukraine with its satellite constellation, communication systems, guidance and control systems, a huge amount of money, weapons, mercenaries and much more, training Ukrainian troops on its territory, while the Russians, trying to avoid escalating the scale of this war to the size of a world war, avoided attacking NATO satellites, reconnaissance aircraft, Starlink systems and much more, were able to defeat your proxy army. And always being in the minority!
Great result!
And now, after the end of the war, mass exposures of Ukrainian corruption, stupid fakes of Ukrainian and Western propaganda will begin. We will see and hear a lot of interesting things soon)))

It wasn't Putin that Trump was scared of. He was afraid of the monster that Europe had become)))

Maybe this war is really similar to the Winter War of 1939. At least the result – a Russian victory, is the same)))

And now you can mercilessly smash the Russians in your fantasies)))

Stoppage, who is Dugin? What does he decide? He does not hold any official positions and can talk about anything.

There will be a military response to military aggression. If Trident is launched at St. Petersburg, the retaliatory strike will… sink Great Britain.

Why would Russia attack Belarus if it is a union state?
link

I'm also struggling to see why Russia would invade its ally Belarus.

Re: White Russia

My bad. I didn't know about the Union State arrangement between Ruzzia and Belarus.

In my mind was the Wiki – Belarus Protests 2020-2021 when Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya was forced into exile.

I was under the impression that the denizens of Belarus had chosen Western-Style Freedom and that Alexander Lukashenko and his thugs were squatting in the place.

"And now, after the end of the war, mass exposures of Ukrainian corruption, stupid fakes of Ukrainian and Western propaganda will begin. We will see and hear a lot of interesting things soon"

Ah the Soviet state propaganda machine will be busy making up their usual rubbish.

How did the Soviet 3 day special operation go, not very well, 3 years later and it is not the might of Russia that has won the war (not yet) it is the Americans handing over the Ukraine, as they will doubles hand over the Baltic states, Taiwan to China and South Korea to North Korea.

The Soviet war machine has been shown to be pretty poor against an army with much less manpower and weapons, hamstrung by not having permission to strike at targets over the border. The Soviets have been good at murder and launching indiscriminate attacks against civilians.

Tally Ho!

US forces has been in Europe for 80+ years (3 generations). When will the US ever withdraw?

Why should USA protect Europe when Europeans will not defend theirselves? I want my country to have the the health care as the Europeans enjoy. I do not see this happening until the US defense spending is equal (in GNP%) to the Europeans.

So all you warmongers out there that like to see endless wars continue tell me how Ukraine can win the war when the Biden admin refused to sell them the needed weapons?

It is your politicians that failed and yet blame Trump.

nickinsomerset, show me where and when did any of the Russian officials talk about the three-day operation? Just provide a link to confirm your words)))

It was Russian military strength that won the war. And Trump is just a realist. If an enterprise only brings losses in the long term and has no prospects, it is closed. For three years we were told that Russia would soon fall apart, it would run out of weapons, there would be a coup in Russia, the whole world would turn away from it, Putin would die and blah, blah, blah… Empty chatter. Russia has become stronger and more significant than it was before the war. And this is precisely the result that the West was able to achieve.

The Ukrainian army had a lot of advantages over the Russian one, due to the West's participation in a proxy war. And all that the West could achieve was to destroy Ukraine with a senseless war.

I understand that you prefer Ukrainian and Western propaganda nonsense. But the best cure for lies is time. Let's wait)))

Trump has banned the transfer of his intelligence and targeting data to Ukraine. If only Musk had turned off his Starlink over her territory (and this is the end of the work of the vast majority of drones). Then we will see what the Ukrainian army is capable of without the United States.

link

@Cuprum, sorry you interpreted my use of the word "vapourise" in relation to Kaliningrad as referring to the place being nuked – my bad choice of words. What I meant was that it would be crippled early and effectively by precision conventional munitions as have worked well in Crimea and the rest of Ukraine. Also remember that this would be in response to a Russian attack on a NATO member and would be invoked under Article 5.

Remember that NATO has a "no first use" policy so if Kalningrad was to be the target of nuclear weapons then it would only be after a first use by Russia. But at that point there would probably be higher priority targets

I don't think Russia would be interested in attacking NATO countries. It would be a game that would end in defeat for all participants in the conflict. A weakened Russia, like a weakened Europe, would become easy prey for other participants in the "Great Game".

It appears that NATO (and maybe the US) is weak and feckless but willing to support Ukraine fighting to the last Ukrainian. In the short run, this will give them a chance to dump their obsolete equipment on Ukraine, and the increased arms production could help their economy and replenish their military with newer equipment. Wars tend to do that.

link

One reason the US has over-hyped Soviet military capabilities since the Cold War was to justify defense spending. After Russia's showing in Afghanistan and Chechnya, their military expectations should have been low.

The US reporting on Ukrainian aid packages that Congress is supporting is very poor with no real details. I'm trying to figure this out:
link

Approving funds for the equipment is one thing, but if and when it gets to Ukraine is questionable.

It also appears that Russia did not anticipate a war when they invaded Ukraine in 2022. From all reports they were not prepared and their personnel were not warned. Was it supposed to be a walk in like the Donbas and Crimea? Was the "fix" in but backfired? Someday we'll find out.

Right now it appears Trump wants peace and is attempting to force Zelensky to the table with coercion, and Putin with nice words and concessions. Calling Putin evil and saying it is all his fault will not help even if it is true. The negotiations are a WIP so don't jump to any conclusions.

It appears Zelensky's future depends on getting back the Donbas and Crimea, and that's never going to happen. Unfortunately, he seems to have no plan to defeat or stop Putin. I'm not sure of Putin's plan other than attrition.

UN Peacekeepers are a joke. Technically, they are not allowed to fight. UN peacekeeping operations include unarmed observer groups and lightly-armed military forces. The military forces are only allowed to use their weapons for self-defense and to protect civilians.

It seems as if Putin is holding all of the cards. He must be grinning as NATO is posturing to fight while they are funding his war:
link

Also, the US cannot stop Russia from selling oil to China (or even stop Iran) as China is helping prop up the US economy and stock market. That includes economic sanctions on these transactions. Otherwise, the West could confiscate and sink all Russian and Iranian oil tankers attempting to export, and the war could quickly end – or escalate. We can't fight unlimited wars as in the past.

The current state of geopolitics and the world economy make it difficult to wage a war, especially when both sides have nukes. I think Putin also knows the US is not "in it to win it" as evidenced by the weak initial responses of blankets, food, and a free trip for Zelensky if he wants to abandon his country. Also slow walking things like F-16s, AAA, and long range rockets and limiting their use. Putin should at least send the US a nice thank you card. Maybe it will change?

Regarding who started the war, that's complicated as military action normally comes after a prolonged political disagreement or negotiating breakdown. It seems as if the West green-lighted Putin when he invaded in 2014, and did nothing even when they went into Crimea.

I'm no Putin lover. I have friends and family that have fought in Ukraine and some were killed. I've fundraised for equipment, spending my money on Western teams (not the Ukie govt). I spent 2 weeks traveling and interviewing Westerners for a series of books and toured a battlefield. The hotel I stayed at in Kharkiv was hit by an S-300 a few days after we left.

I'm trying to stay objective. Calling leaders names, calling their governments corrupt (is there an honest one on the planet), and pretending you are a know it all geopolitical expert (I'm not) is pointless. We don't know what back channels are going on and what the leaders are willing to accept or compromise to come to the table and make an agreement. Hopefully something soon, that war is terrible.

Wolfhag