"9 hard truths about the Ukrainian war" Topic

Oil delivery Russia Germany
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Fun fact
Robert Habeck, former Energy and Climate minister made a 180 degree turn from his party politics and went out to get gas and oil from anywhere except Russia. Not because he is an aristocrat but because it was necessary.

Dogtail,
you are providing good facts; I do not dispute them. But you cannot hide from the other set of facts: Germany and the rest of Europe continued to purchase considerable amounts of their fuels from Russia, up until 60 days ago. As in near 10% of their total use-that is not an insignificant amount.

Why was there not a 100% embargo of Russian fuels the minute their hordes crossed the Ukrainian border? Again, the indisputable fact that Germany's (and other major European powers) poorly devised green energy policies forced on you by the increasingly far left European elites stripped your countries of real energy independence. Your center/center right parties at least acknowledge those shortcomings and seek to rectify it; but those parties lack any real power as over the last few decades the increasingly far left parties grew a strangle-hold on power (the groups I call the new European aristocracy-they created an administrative state, staffed overwhelmingly by like minded people that are free of the results of elections, so European policies, just like the US, don't change near as much as you'd think election to election).

So, to end my part in this, you are welcome to send your youth and wealth-instead of your "support," to defend Ukraine and regain those thousands of square kilometers of land currently behind Russian lines (oh, I can just imagine the sudden change of heart of those yellow and blue flag wearing Western European youths suddenly being called up to serve their country in order to regain Ukrainian lands and security; you could fill an ocean with those tears).

But that ain't gonna happen, as Europe is far, far too comfortable with middle aged Ukrainian men and women getting blown to pieces instead.

Take care friend, thanks for the exchange. I'm out.

@Maggot

Excellent analysis.

Yes, this is the Trump's evil masterplan, to push European countries to war against Russia without NATO protection. :-)

I still don't understand the infamous "Deal" that keeps popping up in TMP.

If I understand correctly:

The US' support to Ukraine was considered a loan, like a modified and modernised Lend Lease- the contract fine print, so to speak. The value of the loan varies, depending on what site I looked at, but $ 123b ($123X10^9, if you prefer) seems to be the top. Let's be generous and call it $ 150b ($150X10^9USD), as I'm sure there will be overlooked items or payments that need to be added later.

The US wants the loan repaid, for whatever reason. Fair enough, sometimes that happens. While the term "interest" is never mentioned, the sum the US wants back is higher than the original loan, and is in the form of Ukraine ceding 50% of certain mineral rights to the US. These are listed at varying values as well, but the $ 14.8t ($14.8X10^12) Dragon Gunner put in his post seems to be about average. However, mineral find value estimates are nearly always over-stated, so let's just call it $ 3t (or $ 3X10^12).

Ukraine wants some sort of security/assurance of continued US assistance as part of the deal, but the US is not prepared- at this stage- to offer any.

As a result it looks like Ukraine may have rejected the "Deal".

Is that correct so far?

In simple terms, it appears that the US wants Ukraine to repay them (at least) 20 times more than the US has provided. If someone offered me a deal like that I think I'd walk away as well. BUT!- without US support will Ukraine still be able to resist Russia? (And not taking the deal very probably means no more US support.)

So Ukraine must balance the risks of walking away to the risk of the Russians getting the upper hand.

Am I misunderstanding anything?

PS Auto-installation of "USD" and other monetary units is a flocking pain, Bill.

Dal

This is about the most correct I've seen. Others too low, some too high.
I've already documented actual military expeditionaries by subject in this thread.

Subject: How Much Has the U.S. Spent on Ukraine in the War? – WSJ


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So from your link on expenditure the money is actually spent inside the US and not sent to get "lost" in Ukraine as has been suggested. Also note the increase in orders from European countries for US weaponry.

Much of the money appropriated by Congress is spent in the U.S., where American workers at defense manufacturers are paid to make new weapons to replenish old ones sent to Ukraine from national stockpiles or provide Kyiv with new equipment. The U.S. has ordered hundreds of missiles for Patriot and Nasams air-defense systems, millions of rounds of ammunition and other equipment from domestic manufacturers, helping lead to record order books at these companies. European nations have also bought U.S. weapons to send to Ukraine or stocked up their arsenals with American equipment given the increased threat from Russia.

Meanwhile, the Chinese are rejoicing… And they are considering Europe as their future ally against Russia and US. Translation of the article:

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Original:

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Hello, "red" Europe)))

China will protect Ukraine from the insidious Russians)))
By the way, who is tearing up cables in the Baltic Sea? Who benefits from fanning the flames of conflict in Europe?
I have been talking for a couple of years about a "third force" interested in what is happening and benefiting from it. But you don't want to see it. Your sanctions against Russia are a huge investment in the Chinese economy. Your politicians are trash…
The main battle is coming in the East.
Think…

If China avoids to put tariffs on german goods, the trade will increase as the USA builds up trade barriers.

And I prefer chinese food over hamburgers anyway.

.ASU 去你的

Thanks for the link, 35th. On the surface it looks like I underestimated the US spend. But appropriations ($ 175b) don't mean that the money went to Ukraine in any form (cash, weapons, materiel, etc).

There's something else going on, behind the dramas. I have no idea what it is, but if anybody I knew wanted a twenty back, when they'd only loaned me a 'roo (dollar coin), then I'd think they were asking for trouble.

dogtail, well. Everyone chooses their own side…

Kiltboy obviously the weapons have to be replenished.

So the US gives the Ukraine 100 artillery shells that cost "the US taxpayers" $1,000 USD a piece 30 years ago to build. Now the "US taxpayers" shell out the money to replenish them, but those same shells now cost $3,000 USD each. Sure the manufacturers make profits….. but the "US Taxpayers" have now shelled out $4,000 USD per shell. If things continued as they were going, those $3,000 USD shells would go to the Ukraine too. If the Ukraine isn't paying for them, who is? Obviously we are. Should we receive some of that money back?

Is this new? No. Did we even get a jar of vaseline? No. But with no peace and if the "US taxpayers" keep sending those shells and the cost keeps going up to replace them again… well?

Of course manufacturers get wealthier. Politicians who own stock in those manufacturers get wealthier. Not to mention kickbacks. Our debt climbs another trillion and the taxpayers get poorer.

Some in this country want it to continue, others don't. I personally don't. I see a ww1 situation that just keeps draining. I also see the possibility of a slip into WW3.

@dogtail

In total, the E.U. has paid Russia over €196.00 EUR billion for oil, gas, and coal since February 2022, money that has kept the Kremlin flush—Russia has even managed to rebuild its military.

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Cuprum2, I understand that this would be a nightmare, cause you would be surrounded. But you feel betrayed and endangered by the west, and there is nothing we can do about it. Cause nobody likes you in Europe, except for Serbia. We tried hard by buying your gas for years, but you used that against us.

The USA is cutting off all friendships, Trump is a lunatic. Nobody can trust him. So Europe has to get new allies, before it will fully develop into a nuclear stronghold. China is the greatest threat to the USA, so it is clear where Europe has to look.

cheers and bye bye. I am out

The honesty about your love affair with China is appreciated dogtail. Fools deserve what they get. Good luck with your new protector and good riddance to "EU."

dogtail, there is no nightmare. This whole world of pink ponies that you have imagined for yourself never existed. All these years of your prosperity, somewhere wars were still going on, blood was flowing, people were losing their property and shelter (even in Europe). And someone somewhere achieved success, got rich, grew…
Since the last time the world changed significantly (the 90s of the last century), the situation in the whole world has changed dramatically. New players have appeared, they have their own interests, their clash causes completely different conflicts…
The world has become complex. There will no longer be a united front against a single enemy, at least not for a long time. There will be a search for a balance between many factors. Get used to it… I can assume that Europe will still face complex conflicts in the foreseeable future. Intra-European. Perhaps even wars. NATO will probably disintegrate, the US army will leave Europe, and several military-political alliances will emerge in Europe. At least, I see the prerequisites for such events…

And Russia, in my opinion, will maintain neutrality (at least – I would very much like to hope that it will succeed). Moreover, many countries of Eastern Europe themselves will seek Russia's favor. The Russians have resources, money and military power, and this product costs a lot.

Hmm, I think its only paid up members of 'Dictators are us' are likely to prefer Russia over the West. The West have more Money and Military power, and in addition tend to look after their people better.

Let's just wait… I'm not Cassandra or Oracle – I could be wrong)))
The Russians have passed the unity test. Now it's Europe and the US's turn.

Yes, talk about the fact that there is democracy in Europe now seems very unconvincing lately)))

Yes, talk about the fact that there is democracy in Europe now seems very unconvincing lately)))

I agree, some states do indeed seem to have lost their way – but the vast majority do Democracy pretty well IMHO.

One funny thing, I always called myself 'Cassandra' after several events at work where I spoke accurately about things only to be poo-pooed by my colleagues. When I was proved right, their disagreement was conveniently forgotten!

Herkybird, you know, I'm more likely to agree with Vance here… But who knows?

One thing is for sure – the world will never be the same again.

Maggot, thank you.

Kiltboy, you make another vital point in all the huffy going around. Who actually profited in all the hubbub of supplying Ukraine? The US economy was stronger than any other nation's post pandemic financial recovery. Our military expenditures increased, but that money is often pumped right back into US corporations.

From the university business school Trump is said to have attended:

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Trillions in new debt on the way, despite DOGE.

What a ridiculous and childish thing to say.

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(oh and now CFeicht has deleted it. "Dogtail and Tortella show your support for Ukraine by go fight there or shut up", I believe it was)

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Spot on.

"Spot on" 🤔

Well "spot on" from the perspective of the left and TDS Republicans. Oh and I assume many overseas. Typical SNL and MSM anymore, One sided only.

But humor is an individual perspective. I found Biden falling up the stairs of Air Force one three times funny, but others didn't.

Oh and the network didn't find this SNL comment last night funny:

"SNL's Micheal Che made a dig at his own network after MSNBC star Joy Reid's show was cancelled, joking that his status as a black anchor meant he'd be fired next. "

But I found Joy Reid finally getting fired and her on screen breakdown, hilarious. 😂. Everyone to their own humor I guess.

"TDS Republicans."
I, Sir, have been a Republican for decades. To ME, TRUMP is a RINO. What precisely are his Republican qualities?
Since when is encouraging Communist imperialism in Europe a "Republican" ideal?

Sadly, it never fails to amaze me how tight the Trump cult is. I voted for him twice, but only as the lesser of two evils. I couldn't stomach doing it this time around and sat it out.
Does he now require sacrificing virgins? Well, he brought back Andrew Tate, so apparently so. There's his High Priest. Oh, wait. He'll have to fight Vance for that title. Let me fetch some beer and popcorn. Make it a WWE Battle Royale and throw in Elon Chainsaw Musk.

But, then to a true brainwashed Trumpitarian, he can do no wrong. THERE is the true "derangement".

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Are you proud of Fearless Leader now?

I predict!
1. Trump will throw Taiwan under the bus too. In return, China will pretend to stop exports of fentanyl, but won't really.
2. Trump will invade Panama. China will shrug its shoulders as a quid pro quo.
3. Trump will invade Greenland, because why not? This will destroy NATO. Because, why not?
4. Trump will arrest recalcitrant judges. Because, why not? As a corollary, he will appoint judges who will say "Third term? Sure! Why not!"
5. He will invade Mexico. Because, why not?
6. He will throw the United Nations out if New York, seize the buildings and turn them into Trump Plaza Hotel Casino.

And the Trump cult on TMP will applaud it all.

Oh. Most of Latin America will send troops to Panama and Mexico, but they have pitiful armies, and it will be only a token gesture.

Oh I don't know John, your tone is sounding a little pompous and somewhat deranged. 😉

" I, Sir, have been a Republican for decades.". What you write does sound a lot like what I hear from Liz Chaney and Mitt Romney.

Well I have not voted for a democrat, since I could first vote. Does that make me a "better" Republican than you?

My first two choices did not make it in the primaries, so Trump won, I voted for him. Do I regret voting for him over the dementia riddled Biden (before the coup), or the even more incompetent and possibly alcoholic (unelected) Harris? Ahhh He#l no!

Am I proud of him you ask? Well I'm not ashamed of my vote yet.

I want this war to end. Do you?

Either way, and SB has asked this before, What is your peace plan?

Only one person who opposes Trump has put one forth and that did not really seem likely.

Please give us one that allows Putin to be punished, the Ukraine to be either victorious or get their land back. One that Putin is going to accept.

I keep hearing the same thing: "If we had given Zelensky everything he asked for in the beginning". Well 1) I doubt would have worked and 2) that time is long past.

This is now one big WW1 mess.
And it continues, so do the Panamanians now go to war with Russia, or are they too worried about Trump's takeover. What a dilemma. 🤔

Subject: Putin unleashes Iskander-M missile attack to 'sink container ship in Odesa carrying cargo of British weapons for Ukraine' | Daily Mail Online


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John can the US keep sending more and more into a never ending quagmire?

Our national debt is at 36.5 trillion and climbing by the second.

I hate Putin getting his way as much as the next guy. But I see this going nowhere without either his death, a Russian Civil war or WW3. The first 2 don't seem likely and the last is a lose lose.

I know we've posted similar before, but why not again;

Subject: EU spends more on Russian oil and gas than financial aid to Ukraine – report | Russia | The Guardian


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More power to them.

Subject: UK and France to Craft a 'Coalition of the Willing' Ukraine Peace Plan: Starmer


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"UK Prime Minister Sir Kier Starmer said ahead of a Lancaster House summit on Sunday that Britain and France will work to craft an Ukraine ceasefire deal that would be presented to the United States.

Echoing the language of former U.S. President George W. Bush, the Labour Party leader said that London and Paris will seek to build a "coalition of the willing" to enforce a peace in Ukraine.

The UK and France have already committed to sending troops into the former Eastern bloc nation to act as peacekeepers, but other European nations, notably Italy, Germany, and Poland, have so far shot down the idea."

🤔

"We've got to find those countries in Europe that are prepared to be a bit more forward-leaning," Prime Minister Starmer said per The Telegraph.

"I'm not criticising anyone here, but rather than move at the pace of every single member, every single country in Europe, which would in the end be quite a slow pace, I do think we've got to probably get to a coalition of the willing now."

….

"However, despite the tough talk from Starmer and Macron, it is unlikely that they alone could actually provide the security guarantees needed to prevent Ukraine from being invaded in the future."

…

"Macron said Saturday that he urged Zelensky to "re-engage" in dialogue with Washington, particularly on the mineral rights deal, which he left the country without signing following the dustup with Trump in the Oval Office.

Polish President Andrzej Duda also joined the chorus in Europe calling for Zelensky to mend ties with Trump, saying Saturday: "You have to go back to the talk table, sit down to negotiate… If anyone is able to achieve an end to the war, then the United States has that potential, no one else."
"

🤔 Now I'm confused! Why I thought Trump was wrong and Zelensky in the right. Peace wasn't possible? Trump was demanding too much. They also say they must run a peace deal by the US. Why?

If they can get a peace without us, I'd think Trump would be happy. As long as it's understood that any dead British or French in the Ukraine would not trigger our involvement via NATO alliance and any membership in NATO for the Ukraine. But I don't speak for the US or Trump.

Hegseth ordered the military to cease offensive cyber operations against Russia before the Zelensky meeting. What I missing here? Did Putin agree to do anything?

The Moscow Times headline is a major blow, IMO. I get that some people oppose the war. But aligning with Putin? I think it's safe to say that there are millions of Americans who are feeling a bit unwell over this. And they don't even need left wing or MSM media to get them riled…all they have to do is watch and listen.

Let the U.K. and Europe work with Zelensky. Starmer will know how to it. It looks like Trump and Putin on one side, Zelensky, the U.K. and Europe on the other?

Maggot, you cannot do a 100% embargo of oil without collapsing the global economy. Even Trump realized when he sanctioned Iran that he had to exempt China and others.

And my monthly reminder – oil produced in the US belongs to global oil companies. They sell based on the world market and have no obligation to provide a drop to the US. We import oil every day based on prices, supply and demand.

Tort, My gas is $2.31 USD a gallon right now. If I go to Speedway, I get an additional 25 cents a gallon off. What's it like in Massachusetts?

Highest I've seen around here is 2.51 in some cities close to mine.

Pretty good compared to what it was.

Yes it is much better here, maybe 3.09 or so….which in this state is not out of the ballpark for most people. It may be lower near the discount retailers in the cities and burbs, but I live in a rural area. My guess also is we pay more in state fuel taxes than you do. They don't call it Taxachusetts for nothing!

I paid $3.19 USD a few days ago, in Pennsylvania. But we are in a mad race to have the highest gasoline tax in the nation. It's almost like a prestige trophy!

No lieTort, I've ridden the toll roads up there on many occasions. 😉

The USA is cutting off all friendships, Trump is a lunatic

No … he is realigning things to make them more "USA friendly" … He feels and many agree that the USA has been taken advantage of for too long. By both allies and enemies.

1. Trump will throw Taiwan under the bus too. In return, China will pretend to stop exports of fentanyl, but won't really.
2. Trump will invade Panama. China will shrug its shoulders as a quid pro quo.
3. Trump will invade Greenland, because why not? This will destroy NATO. Because, why not?
4. Trump will arrest recalcitrant judges. Because, why not? As a corollary, he will appoint judges who will say "Third term? Sure! Why not!"
5. He will invade Mexico. Because, why not?
6. He will throw the United Nations out if New York, seize the buildings and turn them into Trump Plaza Hotel Casino.

No not very realistic … He does not want war. If anyone has learned anything of the war in Ukraine. 21st Century warfare is very costly in both blood & treasure. It is easier to "make deals".

John you sound like a war monger ?!? 😯

And the Trump cult on TMP will applaud it all.

Stop being dramatic, John. 😏 No cult of any kind like that on TMP, AFAIK. Just because I support many/most of Trump's actions, words, deeds, etc. Does not mean I or others that think this way are "cultists". Personally, he's not the kind of guy I'd have a beer with. He would probably say the same about me. Well maybe if Melania was going to be there, I'll take some O'Doul's. If he was buying.

The last admin was … well … I have already covered that before. Many, many times … 'nuff said … What the new POTUS is doing works for the way I think. E.g. he already closed the border and started mass deportation of illegal aliens with felonies. Some with multiple crimes on their record. And yes, some who are here illegally will be deported … wait for it … they broke the law. And many don't qualify for asylum, etc. Economic refugees don't count.

IF that is all that was accomplished by this admin it was worth my vote. And it started within a few days of him entering the WH.

But, then to a true brainwashed Trumpitarian, he can do no wrong. THERE is the true "derangement"

John… you are being emotional … again …

Are you proud of Fearless Leader now?

Proud really has 0 to do with it … at this point …

My take … the new POTUS has only been in office for less than a few months. Let's watch, wait and see … The show/game has just begun.

Maggot +1
SBm +1
OVI +1
Grey Bear +1

John – try decaf … 😎😉☕

He and his cabinet believe "Peace Thru Strength" … And some many others, Including me …

Hegseth ordered the military to cease offensive cyber operations against Russia before the Zelensky meeting. What I missing here? Did Putin agree to do anything?

Well I did not here that. Regardless, many things that go on behind closed doors, secure phones, etc. Well they don't tell everyone. Some are classified; I like many had TS clearances. But we were only told what we needed to know to do the mission, etc. Of course everything I knew that was TS SBI you can find online.

Thanks for putting the site curmudgeon back to bed. These 'get off my lawn' screeds are annoying.

As are you, my good friend. 😄
The Trump Musk cult is alive and well here.
Always remember.
He can do no wrong. He is incapable of Error.
All must bow to their Will.

John

Then it is fair for me to say:

The ANTI Trump Musk Cult is alive and well here.
Always remember,
He can do NOTHING right.
If it is successful, it is in spite of him and resulted from the previous administrations.
He is incapable of successes.
He is a puppet of Musk and Putin(only Putin his first term.😉).
ALL MUST FIGHT HIM to their last breaths, With their pet judges, their pet media and with the last penny of the Soros wealth.

😂

Let the U.K. and Europe work with Zelensky. Starmer will know how to it. It looks like Trump and Putin on one side, Zelensky, the U.K. and Europe on the other?

LOL, you're kidding, right?

Oh and John

I agree with Tort.

Trump should NOT have let his ego override him and allowed the media in for that signing. It was not necessary, but he wanted everyone to see the mineral deal.
He should have pulled a Biden and done it in the basement.

Not kidding, SB… Europe may not have much time to adapt to a new world order!

SBminisguy, in fact, the current conflict is in the plane – transnationals (international financial capital) versus nationalists (in the good sense of the word, that is, patriots). And it is along this fault line that new alliances are now being created.
You will still see how many European countries will "run over" to the US side under pressure from their own electorate. Even a new, successful assassination attempt on Trump will not stop the process that has begun. The challenge has been issued.
Zelensky brought Trump and the US an ultimatum from the transnationals who now control Europe. Trump rejected this ultimatum.

Of course…

Russia Praises Trump and Scolds Europe for Being the Crucible of War

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I have heard so many epithets from you… the Russians about Zelensky… but now it turns out that he is also a poor imbecile, idiot, retarded because how does it occur to him that he can give an ULTIMATUM to the number one power in the world and to a personality like Trump?… perhaps he should be locked up in a mental hospital?

Armand

Zelensky is not a fool. A fool would hardly be in the position of president. He is a man of a lively mind, an actor and a comedian. But he is now in a situation of absolute dependence on his sponsors and on the current situation. You can't envy him… He just backed the wrong horse…
I don't know why you call him such names)))
But Trump is praised in Russia by idiots. Trump is not an ally of Russia – he is guided by the interests of his country. Where the interests of Russia and the US diverge, he will defend the interests of the US. And that is right. But now he is demonized, as Putin was demonized. And for the same reason – he took his country out from under the control of transnationals. And this is what deserves respect – he is definitely not a coward or a weakling. A man with hard balls)))

All this is just a return of sovereignty to one's own country:

Before taking office, Trump said that he would "absolutely" consider the possibility of the US leaving the Alliance if the allies do not "treat America fairly" and do not increase their defense spending.

Firstly, leaving NATO for the US is a significant reduction in military spending. Currently, the US covers more than 65% of NATO's military spending. Leaving the alliance will allow these funds to be redistributed for domestic needs.

Secondly, without obligations to NATO, the US will be able to independently determine its foreign policy course, without taking into account the collective decisions of the alliance.

Thirdly, the US can reconsider its international obligations. Freed from obligations to NATO, the Americans will be able to optimize their international agreements, adapting them to modern realities and national interests.

I see it this way.

Of course you did… while USA retired from Europe… you regain terrain… no?…

Come one… even the most silly people of USA knows who you the Russians are for the free world…

Now… if we are talking about business… this is another matter…

Maybe you can propose Trump some very good deals in exchange for your withdrawal to your own frontiers…

Armand