"Trade Wars" Topic

Nothing America is embarking on "trade wars" fought out through mutual tarrifs, and it look as though the EU, and maybe the UK will become embroiled shortly. Are you anticipating changing or advancing your wargaming purchases as a result?

From my perspective I'm over in the US soon and I might bring a bigger suitcase to stock up!

Already have enough to paint but I did buy a bunch of stuff on my trip to the UK in December – largely to avoid the horrendous trans-Atlantic postage costs

I have slowed my hobby purchases after doing some stock up over the Christmas holidays with the bargains to be had. At this point it will be just wait and see for me. Frankly I am really out of storage space anyway so it might not be a direct problem for my own interests. Nevertheless very sad to see this all come to pass as I view it as beyond absurd.

If the tariffs last longer than a week or two it could put me out of business. I'd hold off on re-stocks as long as I can hoping for them to end but if it carried on too long I'd just close up shop.

Nah. More stuff on hand than I'm likely to live to paint. Also I don't expect it to go on more than maybe six months, except possibly with China. And Frederick's right, of course: shipping is a bigger problem--and more prone to rapid variations.

More than yet another trade war that no one can ever win, employment insecurity is reining in household spending here. Can't tell if and when funding will be cut instantly for jobs. Came darn close last week before being reversed.

Scale modelers and toy soldier collectors are in for an extremely rude awakening.

Not worried about it; in fact, I'm excited for the future. I think the whole tariff thing will be over in a matter of months, if not weeks— even with China. After all, it's all about negotiations and economic influence. We have it; they don't.

In fact, I expect a long-term economic boom in the US as domestic factories re-open, with a resulting rise in wages, more than offsetting any tariffs (if those even last all that long— tariffs are a bargaining chip, as I've said before).

The sky is not falling. In fact, it's getting brighter.

I haven't bought from the US in years due to extortionate shipping costs and import duties at this end. Haven't bought from Europe since Brexit. I continue to support the UK manufacturers as much as I can.

Shipping costs is why I have not bought from Europe or UK.

Like others, I have too much stuff to paint and build (and game rules that I haven't even read, much less played) to think about buying anything.

Anyway, I'm too busy hedging my IRA portfolio today.

President Trump Strikes Again!

President Trump has announced the temporary hold on the Mexico tariffs in response to Mexico announcing they are sending 10,000 troops to help secure the border on their side.

As Volkoff said to Chuck "That is how you make a threat."

The Art of the Deal works again!

Lots of sabre rattling by everyone, then things go back to normal in the not too distant future. I already avoid overseas shipping on just about everything.

Yup. Mexico just caved, as SMM mentions and I predicted.

Canada, you're next.

China won't be far behind.

I read that Trudeau is speaking with President Trump today. I suspect that the tariffs, at least as regards North America, will not be an issue.

My friend and I, just last week, bought from Historex in France. I had about 20 euros of stuff that I wanted (I really needed it!) and found out it was 24 euros to ship. I got ahold of my buddy who had to have about 100 euros of stuff and we split the shipping down the middle. Oddly, it was 24 euros to ship, no matter the size of the order.
Plus, we got a free bust! (It was a French Marine trumpeter!)
About a dozen of us who can always share in the shipping.
Regards prices of the stuff; we buy what we can afford. $100 USD dollars used to get us 20 things. Now it only gets us 10 things.

I'm in Canada. I buy figures from Canada, Spain, Italy but mostly the UK.
I don't buy American already.
The dollar and shipping costs are too high.
Now I have a reason to boycott American goods.
Next time you have a 9/11 don't look to us for help.
Enjoy having no friends or allies.

Shipping costs were already crazy before the tariffs were even mentioned. There have been discussions on the GMT Facebook group where many gamers in Europe are going to forego GMT P500 games due to the shipping costs in most cases are more than the games themselves! The other part of the gaming hobby that will be hit hard are the big boxed games you see on Kickstarter (Gloomhavven, Eclipse, Twilight Imperium, etc., type games). Many of those have their components printed in China.

A little update from Canada:

link

I always enjoy the comments of the macro-economics and geopolitical "experts" here on TMP.

Seriously? Someone thinks the US won't have military help from Canada over a tariff? Oh, we are quaking in our boots now!

Population of Canada: 41 million, give or take.
Population of US: 340 million
Military spending, Canada: $30 USD bill (US). Per capita: $731 USD
Military spending, US: $820 USD bill. Per capita $2,412 USD

Get real. Canada and the US remain staunch allies, though really it's the US that handles most of the military issues and pays for the bulk of it, too. Which makes sense— the US has the population to provide the troops and the dollars; Canada does not. It barely has a greater population than California, a single US state! (39 mill). The most that might change in the alliance is the US requesting Canada to pick up their share a little more (just as we did with the rest of NATO). Seems fair— our Navy covers your northern butts, you should help pick up the tab— as you have already agreed to do but aren't! As it is, Canada already fails to meet its required share of NATO cost. So why don't you pay your fair share?

This isn't about the military and it isn't about your toy soldiers. It's about effective border control, a fairer trade balance, and reducing the influx of fentanyl, sex trafficking, and even potential terror cells across the US-Canadian border. Maybe somebody should boycott *that*?

Parzival +1

Also, the GDP of Texas alone exceeds that of Canada. Also, the government of Taiwan has told Taiwanese companies with factories in Mexico that they will help them in moving those factories to the US.

More to the point, who is it that's going to make a motza of all the uncertainty, fluctuations in currency and new, poorly thought out tariffs, restrictions and bans on some goods?

There will be someone, somewhere, who's already been on the phone to their futures broker.

"Now I have a reason to boycott American goods."

Whatever turns your crank, Glengarry. But since you already weren't buying from US firms, you'll need to e-mail them and tell them you're boycotting them. How will they know otherwise?

Actually, you might want to take a look at Canadian tariffs on US wargame gear while you're at it. I sold some painted figures to a Canadian wargamer a few years ago, and the Canadian government made a lot more on the transaction than I did.

And by the time I got back to my home page, tariffs on Canadian imports were "on hold." We used to talk in the military about getting "turning inside the opponent's decision-making loop" but I'm a little surprised to see a government--any government--turning inside TMP's rant loop.

Yup. Canada caved. As I predicted.

China is next.

Oh, and I gotta say, the handwringing, tears, and cries of the end of the world is all very entertaining. 😂

I am still going to purchase what I want, when I want, from wherever I want. It's MY hobby. Postage may be expensive these days, but it's way cheaper than me traveling to get what I want or need.

"The Art of the Deal works again!"

He paid someone to write that book for him. I am booking marking his thread for future reference.

I do not understand lumping Canada and Mexico together much less what 10,000 Canadian troops are going to do. The US-Canadian border is 8,891 miles long and given the existing crossing points are already closely monitored, that is a very thin presence elsewhere.

Last year (FY2024) the US seized 21,889 pounds of fentanyl at the border 21,148 from Mexico and 43 from Canada. That is 0.2%.

In FY2024 ICE intercepted slightly over 1.5 million people attempting to cross illegally into the US from Mexico. That number from Canada in that same fiscal year was 23,721 or about 1.5% of total ICE apprehensions.

I don't see any value in harming one of our closest relationships for .2% and 1.5% of a problem. I doubt those numbers will change much in FY25.

"The Art of the Deal works again!"

He paid someone to write that book for him. I am booking marking his thread for future reference.

Oh, good grief. Of course he did. It's called "ghostwriting" and it is a time-honored process— which I say as someone who has done it several times (as the ghostwriter). It's quite common, in fact, for business leaders, politicians, generals, doctors, actors, directors, scientists— all sorts of people who wish to create a memoir or a work on their profession or ideas, but who have neither the free time nor desire to sit down and slog out, type, write, rewrite, edit and revise a book. Or, in some cases, the literary ability. *cough* certain recent candidates *cough*

Here's how it works: The "author" of the book hires a professional writer to compose the work, based on lengthy interviews and conversations with the "author," as well as notes, correspondence, etc., etc., of the "author." The skilled ghostwriter, much like a speechwriter, then crafts the work to match the "voice" of the author, matching that person's cadence, typical word choice, style, and general, unique language. It's a pretty intense process, actually, and ghostwriters are typically well paid. The pay goes up if the ghostwriter receives no credit, and even more if they have to keep their involvement secret (as with an NDA).

But in any case, though the ghostwriter crafts and revises the text itself, the ideas, tone, phrasing, and so forth are those of the named "author". The language is just smoothed out from conversation and notes into a cohesive, readable manuscript. Yet even with a ghostwriter involved, the book is still indeed "authored" by the man (or woman) with the byline— because the book is their ideas and thoughts, not the ghostwriter's.

Ideally, of course. Sometimes that doesn't happen. Sometimes stuff is just shoved in a book which the "author" never looks at— this is more often true of campaign books "written" by politicians and intended to be a fund-raising path to get around federal campaign donation laws, and typically only purchased by wealthy donors, nominally as "gifts" for employees, libraries, etc.. (Hillary did this. So too did pretty much every presidential or senate candidate since Reagan). Of course, The Art of the Deal wasn't such a thing, as Trump was not then a politician, nor considering ever being one. He was a very successful real estate tycoon and resort builder, and happy to be one, and happy to make money off his fame and share his perspective on his rise. I suspect in his case, the ghostwritten work was pretty close to his thoughts and ideas (I read it, years ago. Thought it was a fairly interesting book, though obviously a branding strategy. No literary or business-guide triumph, but still interesting. I was a young man at the time, and had mixed feelings towards the man— but I didn't doubt the general ideas of the book were his.)

And that's the truth about ghostwriting. It's not something to be ashamed of, nor a sign of any sort of failing or lack of intelligence.

Apprehension don't mean that others who are not apprehended aren't getting through in high numbers. That's like saying "I caught only one fish, so there can't possibly be any more in that lake." Worthless numbers for the argument. Try again.

The whole border doesn't need to be guarded because most of it is not conducive to crossing— it's wilderness and rough terrain, far from any habitation and without easily accessed water or food. So whining about the total number of miles is absurd and foolish and doesn't prove any sort of point. Nobody is crossing most of that border because nobody can GET there.

So instead you monitor the areas which can be reached and crossed illicitly. And right now, those areas are under-patrolled and under-manned. If they weren't, nobody would be trying to enter that way in the first place. We'd have ZERO interceptions because nobody would be trying. So yeah, 10,000 patrollers could really cut down on those who are getting through unchecked and uncounted. And they'll be across the sections of the border where criminal aliens can reach.

And we're not hurting Canada at all. Already they sell the US more stuff than they buy. If anything, the direction of hurt has been the opposite— Canada has consistently taken advantage of unfavorable trade agreements offered by politicians who have no clue how economies actually work (or don't work). Ironically, removing those trade practices will wind up benefitting Canada.
But it's not the job of the US government to make certain everything is hunky-dory in Canada. That's the Canadian government's job. In which case, they should negotiate as hard for their people as the US government should for the people of the US. The thing about negotiations is they don't have to be compromises— they can just be solutions that make everybody happy. Only a very poor diplomat (or dealmaker) thinks it has to be any other way.

Canada has consistently taken advantage of unfavorable trade agreements offered by politicians

The current trade agreement was negotiated by the current POTUS in his first term.

It should also be noted that the US economy right now has better GDP growth, a stronger currency, lower unemployment and lower inflation than Canada. A balance of trade deficit does not appear to have harmed the US but the balance of trade was not mentioned at all in the tariff announcement, only fentanyl and immigration. I still do not understand treating two wildly dissimilar problems with Mexico and Canada the same.

If one assumes the numbers are only representative of those caught then while the total numbers might change, absent any hard data it is reasonable to assume the Mexico/Canada ratios will not. I have seen no hard data showing Canada has any issues on the border vaguely similar to the Southern border.

Certainly the fentanyl numbers are an accurate representation of where the problems lies. If we assume those numbers are 100% off, that is still only .4% of the problem with 96.2% a southern border issue.

If hard numbers are available I'd be open to considering whether Canada deserves similar treatment as Mexico but I have not seen any other actual numbers. Absent numbers opinions are simply that.

Never said it wasn't opinion. But it turns out that nobody was hurt, were they? No harm done to our neighbor, he just now has to help watch out for the bad guys a little more, which he should have been doing anyway. And after all, you're the one who interpreted the numbers in an emotional way— as "harming the relationship," as if it were some sort of romantic attachment. What "harm"? It's a political "friendship," which isn't ever a friendship; it's a practical arrangement that should be mutually beneficial economically, militarily, and politically to both sides. We're not taking each other out to dinner. So it's not about "harming" anyone. It's about coming to the best, mutually beneficial deal. That's where the numbers matter. Everything else is just statistics— the well known cousins of "damned lies." And at anytime that deal can be rethought and renegotiated. Hey, it's not the US's fault if the Canadian leaders aren't as good at negotiation as ours.
And, for the record, what so far has happened? A bunch of air got moved around, and a bunch of pixels got wasted writing about it all. And what came out of it but a mutually beneficial deal? No "relationship" has been "harmed."
Seriously, nations don't have feelings. Only people do, and sometimes we all need to just get over it.

The tariffs are in theory to push our neighbors into doing more to secure the borders. I'm not sure how China fits in with this unless they have a fleet of midget submarine landing craft which are dropping off folks in the middle of the night on a beach in Malibu. The tariffs clearly will not bring manufacturing jobs back to the US. If products in China and Mexico become more expensive to import, they will simply be made in Cambodia and Vietnam. If you slap a tariff on Cambodia and Vietnam, then the products will be made in Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. You would have to tariff the world to bring jobs back an in the process, likely massively damaging our own economy. Tariffs when done intelligently do work however. Thailand has had tariffs on automobiles for years. I don't know exactly what percent that are, but they are very high. A Google search suggested it may be as much as 328% for some cases. They are a large enough country that many of the big name companies now have factories there for domestic production. Thailand is currently an automobile and parts manufacturing powerhouse in the region with exports going across the world.

About 90% + on my current projects use 3D printed products I print myself. The supplies for these printers do come from China, but I have a stockpile. I'm ready to bug out with my 3D printers. I have a ton of paints and flock and stuff also. I'm good for years. lol. I still have a lot of physical miniatures I'd like to buy. But already, they are too expensive so I haven't bit and acquired them. Raising the prices even more isn't going to change my current state with regard to buying products from the UK.

For what it's worth, I generally oppose tariffs as economically inefficient, but I can see three decent excuses.
1. As noted, to put pressure on another country short of violence.
2. Countries with inadequate bureaucracies find it much easier to collect tariffs than sales and income taxes.
3. Shall we call it "asymetrical competition?" Country A passes strict environmental or labor laws. Country B has neither. Without a tariff or something like it, Every factory in Country A will eventually be replaced by one in Country B.

If anyone has a fourth sensible justification, I'd like to hear it. Meantime, I'm going back to painting miniatures.