"Canadian Scenario" Topic

Thoughts?

If Trump invades Canada, the key will be rapid advances in the opening 48 hours to take advantage of Canada's odd force disposition.

The country's political and economic center of gravity is the urban corridor from Toronto to Montreal, but a significant share of the Canadian Army is dispersed, with large garrisons in Quebec, Halifax, and the western provinces. Only handful of brigades are garrisoned in the critical theater.

The war will be won quickly and decisively, without massive destruction of Canadian cities, if American forces can establish blocking positions to isolate the urban corridor from peripheral Canadian garrisons. In this maneuver scheme, we utilize highly mobile elements including 1st Cavalry Division and airborne forces to block the highways into Toronto, while an eastern screening group isolates the urban centers from reinforcements scrambling in from Quebec.

We envision inserting HIMARS at operational depths via Chinook slings, saturating Canadian road traffic with rocketry. A mobile firebase ("Firebase Maple") will be established north of Toronto near Lake Simcoe that will have a dominant position over the city's northern approach.

With reinforcements unable to scramble into the critical theater and Toronto severed from the cities in the eastern corridor, the Canadian 31st and 32nd Brigade Groups will be isolated and destroyed. Unconditional surrender is anticipated within 14 days.

Completely unrealistic based on current US commitments.

Force structure is conjectural and notional. Zero consideration given to the Sustainment Concept of Operations. Remember, the Tyranny of Time and Distance.

There is absolutely zero consideration given to IPB, at least as presented here. I'd be interested in knowing where this came from.

For the record, 10MD isn't really a Mountain Division, that's merely an honorific. It's a Light Division.

That's because I belong to the 86 IBCT (MTN), the Army's only actual brigade of Mountain Infantry.

My two shillings.

Eric

Do we get The Canada Health Act or do they get the Affordable Care Act?

Just go with the "Canadian Bacon" war plan.

I am not sure what armor element is going from MI to Ontario is, but none of the bridges from the US to Canada are rated to carry the tonnage of a MBT.

As a fun scenario, why not?

Is this Risk? Remember, you need Kamchatka, Iceland and Central America. Then you can take South America and establish a bridgehead and n Africa.

FFS

A bit of fantasy… My opinion: Trump is just playing realpolitik. There are US interests – and he is trying to achieve them. "Pax Americana" has already collapsed along with the global neoliberal project. Now the world will change rapidly – it's strange that you don't see it. The US "defatted" Europe, eliminating a competitor (and Britain got out of harm's way in advance). Nothing personal – it's just business. And tied Europe's hands with a cold war with Russia, holding back two of its competitors at once.
Now the US is trying to control one of the important sources of resources for the next century – the Arctic. Having gained control over Canada and Greenland, the US will gain control over a huge part of these territories.
And the US also needs control over Southeast Asia (as a very promising market) and the US will try to squeeze China out of there…
Welcome to realpolitik)))

There will most likely be no war with Canada. There will be economic pressure and some form of vassalage. But Greenland may well leave Denmark as a result of a referendum (this territory theoretically has such rights) and join the United States (Crimean scenario). )))

Interesting times are coming))) Turkish proxies are already fighting against US proxies in Syria. And things could easily come to a direct confrontation between the overlords.

What scope for "what if…" scenarios!

But it seems the plan is to also be at war with Panama and Denmark at the same time and maybe even Mexico… within the first 100 days! He's keepin' promises remember.

And going to war with Denmark and Canada would also meet the promise to get the US out of NATO.

Well, occupying Panama is already a tradition)))
However, like the war with Mexico…

Has the USA actually won a war against a foreign power in the last 100 years without allied help? Did they turn up on time?

The US will always find allies. It is too big and too rich a country. How many countries will dare to oppose it? Few. The time of the "great powers" is returning.
And, by the way, it's not about Trump. It didn't start yesterday… Biden's team was just solving the same problems, but using different methods and tools. Different paths led to the same goal. Trump is just a businessman and prefers to take a more direct path. He prefers to chop off the dog's tail at once, rather than in parts)))

It will all be taken care of in A three day special operation! ;)

I believe the whole thing is a bunch of bluff and bluster.

NATO Articles 1 and 4?

35th, I think your sarcasm may be lost on the cool-Aid drinkers.

David,

The Pentagon has numerous invasion plans for every country in the world. In fact, they probably have at least 20+ different plans which are updated/reviewd/changed constantly. That is part of their preparation for any possible crisis that, no matter how unlikely, may arise.

Every developed country worth its salt probably has the same type of planning.

On a side note…

Has North Korea declared war on Ukraine yet?
Can the Ukrainians now sink Russian and South Korean ships in the Indian and Pacific oceans?
Can South Korea now sends troops and hardware to Ukraine?

North Korea has not yet declared war on Ukraine and is participating in military actions only on the "old" territory of Russia occupied by Ukrainians. But it supplies weapons to the Russian army.
However, South Korea has also been supplying weapons to Ukraine through intermediaries for a long time.
Why should they fight in Ukraine? They can perfectly well organize a war on their own territory)))
Western mercenaries are already participating in the war against Russia, and in the attack on the "old" territory of Russia. Moreover, using standard NATO equipment.
Many NATO weapons systems, such as cruise missiles, cannot be used without the participation of NATO military specialists (guidance systems control). Which means NATO is directly involved in the war.
NATO ships are already obstructing Russian shipping in the Baltic Sea.
Welcome to the brave new world)))

By the way… The strike by the "Oreshnik" (non-nuclear weapon) on bases in Europe that repair Ukrainian military equipment and train Ukrainian military personnel – is this already a sufficient reason for a big war? The same as an attack on ships in international waters?

Just read… Iran plans to supply the Kurds with 1,500 kamikaze drones to fight against Turkish proxies, and against Turkey itself… The US supports the Kurds. Iran supports the Kurds. And all this – against a NATO country)))

Many fail to take Trump seriously while concurrently taking him literally. Very foolish and a big mistake.

Hopefully the JCS will realize that this is an unlawful order and refuse to comply. Canada is a loyal and trusted ally that stood with us in war and peace. This entire scenario is ridiculous. Only worthy of a cartoon.

link

StoneMtn

"35th, I think your sarcasm may be lost on the cool-Aid drinkers."

Yes I believe you are correct. The Kool-aid is strong with this group. 😉

Or maybe just too much listening to the prophets of "The View". 😉 As we know, they are wise beyond their weights.

First off "Why?"
As in "Why would we invade Canada?

Secondly…

I'm looking at the map and wondering just where in the heck in US military current TOE all these shown infantry divisions are coming from….

Murphy, that's why we let all those illegals in. They've been arming and training them on the mean streets of the cities. The Leader..OPPs 😳I mean Trump, said he was going to deport them. He did not say to where. OHHH Canada our new home and native land!😉

Interestingly, I believe I read that the Premier(?) of Alberta(?) has contacted President Trump for "discussions".

Maybe there is some fire and not just smoke to this situation.

Might want to look up "Dolle Dienstag" when the allies marched into Holland. The advance came to a screeching crawl because of the masses of celebrating locals.

Most casualties will be due to getting hit by flying champagne corks.

"If Trump invades Canada, the key will be rapid advances in the opening 48 hours to take advantage of Canada's odd force disposition."

"The war will be won quickly and decisively, without massive destruction of Canadian cities…"

"Unconditional surrender is anticipated within 14 days."

Sounds like the briefing Putin got three years ago before he went into Ukraine. I hope Canada goes better. :-)

"Do we get The Canada Health Act or do they get the Affordable Care Act?"

What difference does it make? Both are economy killers.

"Which means NATO is directly involved in the war.
NATO ships are already obstructing Russian shipping in the Baltic Sea."

"The same as an attack on ships in international waters?"

C'mon Cuprum, don't be silly. We all know Russia doesn't have any shipping left since that country you guys were going to destroy in three days sank your navy.

Dn Jackson, it's a pity that geography is not your strong point. The Black Sea and the Baltic Sea are different seas))) And Russia also has the Northern and Pacific fleets)))

And you exaggerate the Ukrainian successes too much)))

So far, only 20% of the Black Sea fleet has been disabled.

True, small boats with crews of 5-7 people (half of the Ukrainian victories) are not shown here.

But yes, the Russian Black Sea fleet has been excluded from active combat. Well, it's just outdated. Although wait a minute… And how effective were the NATO fleets in unblocking the Red Sea? Oopsss…

Denmark has confirmed its readiness for dialogue with Trump on Arctic territories.

The Danish government has confirmed its readiness for dialogue with the new US administration on Arctic territories. This was stated by Danish Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen at a press conference in Jerusalem.

"The Americans have certain concerns about the security situation in the Arctic, which the Danish side also shares," Reuters quotes the head of the kingdom's Foreign Ministry as saying.

"Therefore, [Denmark], in close cooperation with Greenland, is ready to continue negotiations with US President-elect Donald Trump in order to ensure the legitimate interests of the American side," the minister said.

link

When will Canada show understanding for the interests of its sovereign?

So who here wants to create a new USSR? Lies and propaganda in the media, intolerance and destruction (even physical) of the opposition, gerantocracy, imperialism and aggression… The wonderful world of democracy, "based on rules"…

It did run off the rails…

This entire Thread personally offends me as a Canadian Some of the statements here are expressing a clear violation of International Law. Canada has done nothing that deserves this speculation like this What you are suggesting is not even remotely funny

(BTW Aristonicu: it is spelt Ottawa

The OP speaks as "we and them" showing a basic prejudice and hopes that there will not be "---- massive destruction of Canadian cities This is my home and family you are talking about I come to TMP to discuss gaming and not to read an obscenity like this.

This entire Thread personally offends me as a Canadian Some of the statements here are expressing a clear violation of International Law. Canada has done nothing that deserves this speculation like this What you are suggesting is not even remotely funny

Several boardgames have previously covered a hypothetical US invasion of Canada or a Canadian civil war, usually in a rather light-hearted manner.

Individuals have no "personality" or standing in international law; only states do.

If you think you've been harmed, the right course of action would be to have the Canadian government bring an action on your behalf against the government – and reading this thread, I suppose it could be either the Russian or the American government – whose citizens you believed have harmed you. Not sure who's in charge in the Great White North right now, but I'm sympathetic, as we often have our own political tizzies down here in the States, too.

I think almost everyone on this thread is joking, particularly those who might appear most humorless. I certainly think Trump is, not least because I can't imagine an American invasion of Canada getting off the ground- there would be too many people in the chain of command saying things like, "what- are you serious?" and "no, man, I've got tickets for the Oilers game next week."

People often misunderstand how deeply peaceful the American view of Canada is. People accuse Americans of not knowing a thing about Canadian politics, without realizing what a complement that is: we don't worry about who's in charge in Canada, because we know that whomever they are, Canada will be as fundamentally friendly as it has been for the last century and a half.

Donald Trump likes to say outrageous things to get anttention. The idea of Canada being the "fifty-first state" is an attention-getter in part because it's so obviously absurd.

Leaf fan, I am sorry you took this as serious. These things from DC seem like they are meant to distract when something else is not getting done in the US. People here were joking.

And Nine Pound has it right about how we really feel about Canada.

Here in New England, many would like to join you as a new province. We share a great deal. Its wicked cold here, we play good hockey, go ice fishing, some towns even speak French, and we have always felt literally close to you. Maybe we could pull it off while Texas is invading Mexico. Nobody wants us to be stay anyway. We got tired of British rule and pulled that off.

Most of all, we respect you, brother. And that is genuinely meant.

Pobre Canada tan lejos de Dios tan cerca de los Estados Unidos

curious that in such non-sense-thread Russian members don't suggest also to seize the opportunities to launch a counter-offensive by the Pacific to end with the illegal occupation of Alaska

And France… the reconquest of the Province of Quebec. 🤔

As Marx said, apropos a rather different piece of French history, "the first time as tragedy, the second time as farce":

link

If Canada becomes the 51st state of the USA (more likely each province becomes a state) then it will be voluntarily done for economic reasons. There won't be another war of 1812 type invasion.

The world is changing, NATO could be on the USA chopping block and transactional politics are the new norm. Since Canada doesn't have a military worth mentioning would they prefer to partner with us or spend their GDP on developing their own defense? If neither option are desirable we could accept a vassal status where Canada pays us to defend them? We are Canada's number one trading partner, if they join us then they skip the 25% tariff?

I am expecting emotions to boil over and logical thought to fly out the window to my response…

It's important to remember that Canadians are the Americans who rejected the Revolution. By that, I mean that they are the North Americans who specifically looked at the political changes and the independent status that were on offer, and said, "no thanks." They chose the Westminster system, and they're pretty dedicated to it. It may not suit us down here, but it suits them, and any political conversation with Canadians that doesn't start from an understanding that their independence is non-negotiable is liable to fail spectacularly. It means a lot to them that they're independent, that they enjoy the same uninterrupted history of orderly, constitutional government that we do, and that they are just as free and self-reliant as we imagine ourselves to be.

Without a doubt, the US-Canadian relationship is one of the most interesting and special political relationships on the planet- but you could write a whole book on the very different way that Canada evolved, and the consequences of that.

I dealt with a lot of Canadian soldiers over the years, and I always liked them enormously. Once you get to know Canada, it can feel to an American a bit like a science-fiction version of your own country: in most ways, incredibly familiar, except for the elements that have been plucked out, and replaced with something completely different. The enormous commonality is highlighted by those differences- but Canada is not, and probably never will be, integrated into the US- either in whole, or in parts.

I like Canada also Nine Pound Round, I am from Minnesota and I feel I have more in common with them than many parts of the USA. I have vacationed there many times.

I wouldn't say never, the world is changing…

Could Canada break up? It's not likely, but some of the provinces had independent histories that preceded Confederation (longer than that, for Newfoundland), and there are known fault lines of political grievance in the West and Quebec that periodically lead to talk of secession or "Wexit." I don't think they are very likely, and I think it would be bad for Canada (and for the US) if it happened. But I would see in those cases the potential for independence – not annexation by the U.S.

Like the US, Canada is a country that started with an idea, and it's hard to see a world where specifically Canadian notions of governance could fit within the framework of the US Constitution.

The Original post claimed by David Lucas of New South Wales Australia is a direct copy of both picture and text from a X post( originally Known as Twitter) Poster Big Sergei name Sergei Witte an alias of a former Czarist minister
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I'd bet my last dollar that's a fake. Anyone with access to PowerPoint could have done that.

Quite apart from the fact that it's implausible, it does illustrate one fundamental problem of invading North America- it's a big place, with a thinly-spread population, and it would require enormous numbers of troops to take and hold- which is why it's unlikely any reasonable entity would ever try to invade either the US or Canada.

There will not be an invasion of Canada by the US. The cost by itself would be ridiculous in exchange for whatever advantage we could get for anything else.

Close to Half the country would be Democrats in our political system. Why would a Republican want that? 😂

Most of our country would never support it.

This is being used to gain economic and military concessions from Canada, just like the threats of tariffs. Also to have Canada increase security on the borders.

Panama.., there I make no bets on what he plans to do. I believe he wants concessions on cost to traverse, a hard line on the Chinese there and Panama to pick up the maintenance. But who knows?

If I were Mexico, I'd take a hard line on border crossers and the Cartels. Problem there, I don't think the Mexican government is capable of a hard line on the cartels. Not without US help.

If there's one thing I could definitely see Trump doing, it's authorizing an incursion into northern Mexico by the military to fight the cartels. Declaring them to be terrorists and indicating the intent to move the military to the border are big steps in that direction. Whether he actually plans to do it or not is an open question: I think he's pretty clearly signaling capability and willingness.

So the management team has no problem with a poster copying a full post, as written word for word, from another site and posting it here as an original submission

Leaf not sure why this upsets you. I took the whole post as a Trump troll, or a tongue in cheek post.

I don't know how many games have been developed about a conquest of the US. That does not include all the movies and shows produced where one country or group takes over, like "Red Dawn" (twice yet).

If I lived in Canada and was going to worry about infringement on my Country, I'd be watching the Russians and Chinese in the ice above you. Russians have been doing this for awhile but China is new to the game.

"According to recent information, China currently has four operational icebreakers.

Key points about China's icebreakers:
Recent addition: China's newest icebreaker is called "Ji Di".

Growing fleet: China is actively expanding its icebreaker fleet, indicating increased interest in Arctic exploration.

Comparison to other nations: While Russia has a significantly larger fleet of icebreakers, including nuclear-powered ones, the US has only a few. "

Now why would China be needing all these ice breakers? Fear of global cooling? 🤔😂

Nine pound round +1

Everyone should know by now that Trump uses hyperbole to cut through the fog and introduce ideas, and start to set expectations on his terms. In sales it's called "anchoring" or "price framing." You set an initial high reference point (the anchor) so that when the actual price is revealed, it appears more favorable in comparison.

So he sets an artificially high reference point -- his anchor is "America will totally buy and control Greenland." So people will react to that and reject the concept of the US outright purchasing Greenland.

But now the VALUE of Greenland is in play. The goal of US interests or control are on the table and then we see the negotiations unfolding, and increased US influence but not outright control will seem like a "win" for Denmark and Greenland when that's probably what Trump had in mind all along.

*Danish PM: "no way, not for sale!"

* Greenland PM: "no way, not for sale -- but we think we want independence from Denmark and to become a sovereign nation and control our future so Denmark can't sell us to the US."

* Danish PM: "Say what!?! We won't sell you!"

* Greenland PM: "Sure, you say that now, but who knows when things could change? Besides, you treat us like a backwater."

*Trump: "Hey Greenland, we'll make you a great deal, we'll invest billions of $$ in infrastructure and defense in you"

* Danish PM: "No, wait, hey Greenland, we love you guys, look, here's a $1.5 USD Billion investment!!"

* Greenland PM: "Thanks, but we still want to hold an independence referendum…"

So far Trump has only been troll talking and he's got Greenland talking about independence and Denmark throwing cash at Greenland.

Break out the popcorn!

Just too clever for me…. I listened to him talk about the CA fires for a minute, just put me off the whole show.

Just too clever for me…. I listened to him talk about the CA fires for a minute, just put me off the whole show.

Yeah…the truth hurts, sometimes…

Yeah, the truth is a pain for some..but I am not unhappy, just don't want the rambling patter….