"The First Battle of the Next War: Wargaming a Chinese" Topic

… Invasion of Taiwan

"CSIS developed a wargame for a Chinese amphibious invasion of Taiwan and ran it 24 times. In most scenarios, the United States/Taiwan/Japan defeated a conventional amphibious invasion by China and maintained an autonomous Taiwan. However, this defense came at high cost. The United States and its allies lost dozens of ships, hundreds of aircraft, and tens of thousands of servicemembers. Taiwan saw its economy devastated. Further, the high losses damaged the U.S. global position for many years. China also lost heavily, and failure to occupy Taiwan might destabilize Chinese Communist Party rule. Victory is therefore not enough. The United States needs to strengthen deterrence immediately."

See here

link

Armand

Wouldn't it be cool if wars had to be fought by the politicians and their families?

Wouldn't it be cool if wars had to be fought by the politicians and their families?

There'd be a sudden and nearly complete outbreak of peace, at least in "developed" nations. But the fanatics and fundamentalists would still be around, so not all threats to peace would suddenly vanish.

PS That scenario has too much chance of becoming reality, Armand, unless Xi pops his clogs soon and a somewhat less ambitious successor takes the PRC's reins.

(smile)

Armand

From another site: link

Some more details:

"Mark Cancian, Senior Adviser, International Security Program, and the host of this CSIS webinar held LIVE on January 9, 2023 said that the wargame was played 24 times by CSIS and came to two conclusions: China was unlikely to succeed in occupying Taiwan and the cost of war for all sides was high with estimates of 10,000+ total casualties. The U.S. lost 10-20 warships, two aircraft carriers, 200-400 warplanes, and around 3,000+ troops were killed in three weeks of fighting.

China loses 90% of its amphibious fleet, 52 major surface warships, and 160 warplanes were lost."

Wargames give insight, but oftimes have built in biases to favour weapon acquisition or disposal. They also tend to look at a very narrow set of options which the NCA or an enemy may ignore. It would be interesting to read the study.

A significant political consideration is how the loss of a carrier or an attack on Guam or Pearl Harbor would be viewed by Americans. China could easily create a Remember the Alamo!, Remember the Maine!, Remember Pearl Harbor!, or 911 event in which they "awaken a sleeping giant and fill him with a terrible resolve."

Thanks

Armand